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朝阳地区气象条件与乙脑发病率关系的分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
通过对1983~2002年朝阳地区6~8月的月平均气温、降水量和同期年降水量与乙型脑炎发病率进行相关回归计算分析。结果表明:7月降水距平百分率变化趋势与乙型脑炎发病率变化趋势基本吻合,降水量与气温同步升高是诱发乙型脑炎的主要气象因素。 相似文献
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王铁 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1994,(5)
自1993年11月始至1994年4月,全疆大部气温正常或略偏低,结束了长达8年的暖冬,自1994年5月起,全疆大部气温日晚,较常年略偏高,进人7、8月份,仍然保持了这种趋势,7~8月平均气温,北疆与常年持平,南疆略高于常年。另外,今年5、6两月,降水量持续偏少,但进入7、8两月,降水量明显增多,尤其北疆地区偏多更甚,以致造成局地洪灾。1月平均气温和月总降水量7月份,月平均气温北疆大部正常略偏高,南疆大部偏高。但北疆地区气温呈明显的西高东低分布,如以阿勤秦至乌鲁木齐连一直线,分北疆为东西两部,刚西部大部地区气温偏高O.l~l… 相似文献
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梅县近50年的气候变化 总被引:2,自引:30,他引:2
根据梅县气象观测站1953~2006年的年、季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量变化趋势及异常年份资料,对梅县近50年来的气候变化作了分析。结果表明:近50年梅县气温呈波动上升趋势,1998年之后年平均气温进入一个迅速上升的阶段,各季节气温变化趋势不同,冬季变暖趋势最明显,其中平均最低气温升高最为显著;近50年年降水量呈下降趋势;降水的年变化趋势与气温变化之间,有气温偏低时期降水偏多,气温偏高时期降水偏少的反相位关系。 相似文献
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对流层顶气压与气温的年(代)际变率研究:冬季特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均对流层顶气压、气温资料,研究了1979-2002年冬季全球对流层顶气压、气温的年际和年代际变率。选取了冬季对流层项变率最大的区域来定义气压指数、气温指数。通过分析得到:(1)全球对流层项气压、气温随纬度的增加而增高,但在整个热带地区和高纬度地区对流层顶气压、气温的分布较均匀。在分析时段内全球平均的对流层顶气压呈下降趋势,气温呈降低趋势。这些从全球资料得到的结果支持了已有的从部分探空资料所得到的结果。(2)对流层顶变率最大值出现在北半球的副热带地区,最小值出现在低纬度地区。气压指数和气温指数显示出准13a及准3~6a的周期。在1992年以前准3a的周期变化较强,1989年后准6a较强,显示出年际变化的年代际差异。对流层项气压与对流层顶气温在全球大部分地区都呈显著正相关,但在热带和副极地的部分地区相关较弱。对流层顶气压与对流层平均气温在全球大部分地区都呈显著负相关,但在极地地区有正相关关系,显示了对流层顶与对流层内部变化关系的复杂性。 相似文献
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This study analyzes the relationships of stable isotopes in precipitation with temperature, air pressure and humidity at different altitudes, and the potential influencing mechanisms of control factors on the stable isotopes in precipitation in Southwest China. There appear marked negative correlations of the δ18O in precipitation with precipitation amount, vapor pressure and atmospheric precipitable water (PW)at the Mengzi, Simao and Tengchong stations on the synoptic timescale; the marked negative correlations between the δ18O in precipitation and the diurnal mean temperature at 400 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850hPa are different from the temperature effect in middle-high-latitude inland areas. In addition, the notable positive correlation between the δ18O in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td at different altitudes is found at the three stations. Precipitation is not the only factor generating an amount effect. Probably,the amount effect is related to the variations of atmospheric circulation and vapor origins. On the annual timescale, the annual precipitation amount weighted-mean δ18O displays negative correlations not only with annual precipitation but also with annual mean temperature at 500 hPa. It can be deduced that, in the years with an abnormally strong summer monsoon, more warm and wet air from low-latitude oceans is transported northward along the vapor channel located in Southwest China and generates abnormally strong rainfall on the way. Meanwhile, the abnormally strong condensation process will release more condensed latent heat in the atmosphere, and this will lead to a rise of atmospheric temperature during rainfall but a decline of δ18O in the precipitation. On the other hand, in the years with an abnormally weak summer monsoon, the precipitation and the atmospheric temperature during rainfalls decrease abnormally but the δ18O in precipitation increases. 相似文献
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利用普定国家气象观测站1971年1月1日-2022年2月28日逐日平均气压、平均气温、平均相对湿度、平均风速、降水量等气象资料以及普定县空气污染物日均浓度、空气质量指数(AQI)等资料,运用人体舒适度指数、气象要素与污染物浓度的相关性、人体舒适度与空气质量相关性分析方法,分析普定县近50a的人居环境气候条件。结果表明:普定县平均气温、平均风速以及日照时数呈增加趋势,相对湿度、降水量以及气压呈降低趋势。常年体感主要为凉(3级)~最舒适(5级)之间,全年体感无寒冷及酷热等级,且体感舒适(含凉舒适及最舒适)月份主要为4-10月,占全年58%。普定县气温上升、风速增大、气压下降的趋势有利于污染物浓度降低,空气质量好,而相对湿度降低、降水量减少的趋势不利于污染物浓度降低,影响空气质量。普定县空气质量以4-5月、7-11月为优,且其四季空气质量均为优,表明空气质量好,人体舒适度高,适宜人居。 相似文献
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利用成都市城区2015年12月~2019年12月污染物浓度及气象资料,对PM10、PM2.5、CO、O3、 SO2、NO2六种大气污染物浓度变化特征以及与气象要素之间的相关性进行分析。结果表明:2016~2019年成都市空气质量冬季最差,秋季最好,年内整体以良为主,重度污染和严重污染的天气较少出现,空气质量逐年变好;主要污染物浓度除O3外在冬季最高,夏季最低,春秋两季相差不大,O3浓度变化则相反;主要污染物的日变化特征也较为明显。空气质量综合指数、PM10、PM2.5、CO、NO2浓度与气温和降水存在显著负相关性,与气压存在显著正相关性,还与相对湿度呈不同程度的负相关,但与风速相关性不显著;O3浓度不仅与风速、气温和降水存在显著的正相关,还与气压呈显著的负相关,却与相对湿度的负相关性不显著。 相似文献
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2006-2012年青岛市空气质量与气象条件的关系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
利用2006-2012年青岛市SO2、NO2及PM10的监测资料,统计分析3种污染物时空分布特征及污染物平均浓度与气象要素的关系,并分析污染日气象条件变化特征。结果表明:2006-2012年青岛市年平均污染日数为23-33 d;青岛市空气污染主要出现在冬、春两季,主要污染物为PM10。青岛中度以上污染为PM10污染,大多由浮尘天气引起。污染物浓度与云量、降水量和气温呈负相关,与气压呈正相关。冬季大雾易造成空气污染加重,而4-6月海雾则使空气质量提高。弱的地面天气形势和接地逆温层结的存在及持续的烟、霾天气易导致青岛空气污染。 相似文献
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Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. 相似文献
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Lydia Stefanova Vasubandhu Misra James J. O’Brien Eric P. Chassignet Saji Hameed 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):161-173
This paper presents an assessment of the seasonal prediction skill of current global circulation models, with a focus on the two-meter air temperature and precipitation over the Southeast United States. The model seasonal hindcasts are analyzed using measures of potential predictability, anomaly correlation, Brier skill score, and Gerrity skill score. The systematic differences in prediction skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere models versus models using prescribed (either observed or predicted) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are documented. It is found that the predictability and the hindcast skill of the models vary seasonally and spatially. The largest potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) of precipitation anywhere in the United States is found in the Southeast in the spring and winter seasons. The maxima in the potential predictability of two-meter air temperature, however, reside outside the Southeast in all seasons. The largest deterministic hindcast skill over the Southeast is found in wintertime precipitation. At the same time, the boreal winter two-meter air temperature hindcasts have the smallest skill. The large wintertime precipitation skill, the lack of corresponding two-meter air temperature hindcast skill, and a lack of precipitation skill in any other season are features common to all three types of models (atmospheric models forced with observed SSTs, atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs, and coupled ocean–atmosphere models). Atmospheric models with observed SST forcing demonstrate a moderate skill in hindcasting spring-and summertime two-meter air temperature anomalies, whereas coupled models and atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs lack similar skill. Probabilistic and categorical hindcasts mirror the deterministic findings, i.e., there is very high skill for winter precipitation and none for summer precipitation. When skillful, the models are conservative, such that low-probability hindcasts tend to be overestimates, whereas high-probability hindcasts tend to be underestimates. 相似文献