典型喀斯特区植被变化及其与气象因子的关系——以广西百色市为例

利用2000—2017年广西典型喀斯特区MODIS NDVI卫星遥感影像,研究近20 a来喀斯特地区植被及不同等级石漠化区植被时空变化状况,分析降水及气温与喀斯特地区植被变化的相关性,探讨植被变化与气象因子的关系。结果表明:(1)研究区植被及各石漠化等级区植被年内NDVI变化特征均表现出"夏秋高,冬春低"的趋势,随着石漠化等级加重,植被NDVI均值降低。植被NDVI峰值多出现在8月上旬至9月上旬,谷值出现在1月和2月上旬。但以灌草为主的轻、中、重石漠化区植被NDVI峰值出现时间较早,以乔木为主的潜在石漠化区植被NDVI峰值出现时间较迟。(2)2000—2017年百色全喀斯特地区及各等级石漠化区植被NDVI均呈改善趋势,且重度石漠化区植被改善趋势最明显,轻度石漠化区次之。研究区植被多为稳定变化和改善趋势,改善、变化不大和退化面积比例分别为38.27%、57.86%、4.87%。(3)平均气温和降水量与研究区植被NDVI相关性均较高,且平均气温与植被NDVI的相关性总体好于降水量。年尺度气温和降水量对植被NDVI影响均较明显,季度尺度上,秋季和春季气温降水对植被NDVI影响较大,冬季影响最小。目前气候变暖引起的增温幅度有利于研究区植被生长,春夏季降水减少、秋季降水增多的气候变化趋势更利于研究区植被改善。     

2000—2009年锡林郭勒典型草原植被对气象因子的响应

应用MODIS数据对2000—2009年植被变化情况及其与气温、降水量进行相关分析。2007年年均气温最高,降水最少,NDVI最大值和生长季平均值最低;在降水量最大的2003年NDVI最大值和生长季平均值最高。全生长季中气温和降水量与NDVI值具有显著或极显著相关,相对于气温、降水量对NDVI值影响更大;前一个月的气温和降水量对NDVI值的影响最大,植被对气象因子的响应具有时滞性。     

青藏高原冬、春植被归一化指数变化特征及其与高原夏季降水的联系

青藏高原气候独特,影响高原夏季降水的原因是十分复杂的和多方面的。文中利用1982—2001年的卫星遥感植被归一化指数(NDVI)资料和青藏高原55个实测台站降水资料,应用经验正交分解(EOF)、奇异值分解(SVD)等方法分析了青藏高原冬、春植被变化特征及其与高原夏季降水的联系,得到以下几点初步认识:青藏高原冬、春季植被分布基本呈现东南地区植被覆盖较好,逐渐向西北地区减少的特征。其中高原东南部地区和高原南侧边界地区NDVI值最大,而西北地区和北侧边界地区NDVI较小。EOF分析表明,20年来冬、春季高原植被的变化趋势是总体呈阶段性增加,其中尤以高原北部、西北部(昆仑山、阿尔金山和祁连山沿线)和南部的雅鲁藏布江流域植被增加明显。由SVD方法得到的高原前期NDVI与后期降水的相关性是较稳定的。青藏高原多数区域冬、春植被与夏季降水存在较好的正相关,且这种滞后相关存在明显的区域差异。高原南部和北部区域的NDVI在冬春两季都与夏季降水有明显的正相关,即冬春季植被对夏季降水的影响较显著。而冬季高原中东部玉树地区附近区域的NDVI与夏季降水也存在较明显的负相关,即冬季中东部区域的植被变化对夏季降水的影响也较显著。由此可见,高原前期NDVI的变化特征,可以作为高原降水长期预报综合考虑的一个重要参考因子。     

内蒙古地区植被对气候变化的响应

植被作为表征陆地生态环境变化的指示器,其对气候变化的响应研究已成为当前全球变化领域的主要内容之一。基于1982—2012年归一化植被指数(NDVI)和同期观测温度和降水资料,分析了内蒙古地区植被对气候变化的响应。研究表明,1982—2012年,植被指数总体呈波动变化,且区域差异明显。从年际变化来看,植被受降水影响明显;年内变化上,气温对植被的作用明显。内蒙古不同区域植被对气候的响应方式不同,其中内蒙古东北部地区对气温和降水的响应无滞后时间,其余地区对气温和降水的滞后时间为1个月。     

西藏藏北高原典型植被生长对气候要素变化的响应

选取西藏藏北高原西部高寒草原植被、中部高寒草甸植被及东南部高寒灌丛草甸植被 3 种藏北地区最典型的植被类型, 结合临近 3 个气象观测站的资料, 分析这 3 种典型植被类型地区 1999—2001 年旬平均气温、旬总降水量和 SPOT VEGETATION 卫星 10 d 最大值合成归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 变化特征以及 3 种典型植被基于 SPOT VEGETATION NDVI 的生长变化对旬平均气温和旬总降水量两个主要气候要素变化的响应关系。 结果表明: 藏北地区降水资源的空间分布特点是东南部向西北部逐渐减少, 气温则由南向北逐渐递减, 与降水资源分布相反, 蒸发量西部高, 东部低; SPOT VEGETATION NDVI 能够较为准确地反映 3 种典型植被生长变化特征, 所反映的植被返青期和枯黄期等重要植被生长阶段与由积温计算的植被生长特征基本一致; 藏北地区基于 SPOT VEGETATION NDVI 的植被生长变化与气温的相关系数明显高于与降水的相关系数 , 其中以那曲为代表的高寒草甸植被的 NDVI 与旬气温和旬降水总量的相关系数最大, 分别为 0.81 和 0.68 , 表明藏北地区由于海拔高, 气候寒冷, 气温对该地区植被生长的影响明显高于降水的影响, 即该地区植被生长变化对气温的响应程度明显高于对降水的响应程度 , 是植被生长的限制性因素; 不同植被类型对气温和降水两个要素的响应程度大小依次是高寒草甸、高寒灌丛草甸和高寒草原。     

2000年以来中国区域植被变化及其对气候变化的响应

气候是植被变化的主要驱动因子,研究全球增暖背景下中国区域植被变化及其对气候的响应对于国家开展重大生态恢复评估和未来植被保护政策制定具有重要意义。利用2000-2016年MODIS植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据集,运用统计分析方法,从平均态、线性趋势、时间序列、相关性等方面系统分析了2000年以来中国区域植被变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:中国区域NDVI在平均态上呈现从东南向西北递减的空间分布,受降水生长季的影响,东部地区植被指数明显较大;我国大部分地区NDVI呈现增加的趋势,其中湿润半湿润地区NDVI增长幅度为0.037·(10a)^-1,而在干旱半干旱地区变化较小[0.013·(10a)^-1]。NDVI的变化与气候驱动因素的相关性存在一定的区域差异,其中:NDVI与气温变化在东南沿海、东北东部以及青藏高原北部等地区呈现出显著正相关,而在青藏高原南部等地区呈现微弱的负相关;除青藏高原、塔里木盆地和东北北部等地区外,NDVI与降水量在全国大多数地区呈正相关。从全国平均来看,温度和降水变化对NDVI的贡献分别为7.5%和9.1%,其中温度对NDVI变化的贡献主要体现在湿润半湿润地区(9.3%),而降水的贡献则在干旱半干旱地区(12.2%)。植被变化对气候要素驱动的响应也呈现出明显的区域差异性,在我国东南沿海、云贵高原东部、四川盆地等南方地区以及黄河中下游、东北东部等部分地区,NDVI变化对气温的敏感性最强;而在中国北方干旱半干旱大部分地区,NDVI变化则是对降水驱动具有很显著的响应特征。总体而言,气温是驱动南方地区植被变化的主导因子,而降水则调控着北方地区植被生长变化。     

伊犁地区不同草地类型植被指数与气候因子的关系

基于2006—2012年主要生长季(5—9月)MODIS旬最大值合成NDVI数据,结合同期气温、降水插值栅格资料,采用均值法、线性回归法、相关系数法分析了伊犁河谷地区七大不同草地类型NDVI的时空变化规律及其对气象因子响应的敏感性及滞后性。结果表明:(1)伊犁河谷草地植被NDVI整体呈微弱增加趋势,其中,温性荒漠类草地的增加趋势略高于其他几种类型。(2)温性草甸草原、温性草原、温性荒漠草原、高寒草原、低平地草甸的NDVI主要受降水影响,即NDVI与生长季平均降水量呈极显著正相关,且平均降水量每增加1 mm,其NDVI分别增加0.005、0.006、0.007、0.004、0.003。(3)不同草地类型与气温、降水存在不同的滞后响应,多数草地类型5月气温、降水与7月NDVI表现出显著相关性。其中,温性草甸草原、温性草原、温性荒漠草原NDVI受气温和降水共同影响,气温每升高1℃,NDVI分别减少0.020、0.028、0.027,降水每增加1 mm,NDVI分别增加0.002、0.003、0.003;高寒草原主要受降水影响,降水每增加1 mm,NDVI增加0.003;低平地草甸主要受气温影响,气温每升高1℃,NDVI减少0.016;温性荒漠、沼泽与气温、降水没有明显相关性。不同草地类型对水热因子的需求不同,是产生这种结果的主要原因。     

大兴安岭植被NDVI变化及其对气候的响应

利用S-G(Savitsky-Golay)滤波对2000—2016年呼伦贝尔市境内的大兴安岭植被NDVI序列进行逐栅格重构并剔除突变点,结合大兴安岭海拔、坡向、坡度等地理因子和气温、降水等气象因子,分析大兴安岭植被生长季NDVI的变化及其对气候的响应。结果表明:大兴安岭植被NDVI生长季均值呈上升趋势,平均增速为0. 029/10 a。植被NDVI随海拔的增加呈现先缓慢减小后迅速增加的趋势,随坡向变化不大,随坡度的增加而增加。植被NDVI的生长季均值与1 a前和2 a年前的降水呈现显著的正相关,具有明显的滞后性。在每年植被恢复生长初期各海拔植被均与气温呈现极显著的正相关,年内植被NDVI与降水的相关性在垂直方向上存在较大差异。     

1961—2018年科尔沁沙地气候变化特征

文章利用科尔沁沙地6个气象站点1961—2018年年、季气温、降水、风速等资料,对科尔沁沙地近58a气候特征进行分析。结果表明:近58a来科尔沁沙地年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,而气温日较差呈减小趋势,以上两气象要素以冬、春两季表现最为明显。降水量年际间变化较大,其中夏季降水量呈显著下降趋势。年平均风速自1991年以后呈逐年波动下降趋势。气温高降水少的气候背景加剧了科尔沁沙地干旱化、荒漠化进程。     

西辽河流域归一化植被指数与气象因子相关性分析

为了解西辽河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)的分布规律、变化趋势及对气候变化的响应,利用2000—2018年西辽河流域11个气象站逐日气象资料和MODIS归一化植被指数数据集,通过线性回归和相关分析,探讨了生长季各月NDVI与气象因子的时滞性,以及气象站周围10 km缓冲区内不同植被类型NDVI与气象因子的相关性。结果表明：西辽河流域年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量均呈上升趋势。NDVI呈上升趋势,植被有所改善,不同植被类型NDVI均呈增加趋势,耕地增加趋势最快,耕地长势受益于农事活动的完善和增进。NDVI空间分布呈现中间低,四周高特点。生长季各月NDVI与降水量存在明显的滞后性,滞后期为1个月;仅8月NDVI与前1个月平均气温和最高气温存在滞后性。不同植被类型NDVI与平均气温、最高气温的相关性密切。耕地NDVI与气象因子的相关性较好。研究结果可为维护西辽河流域生态系统平衡提供参考。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on