HLAFS业务预报系统改进对比试验

该文以国家气象中心的有限区域业务预报模式为基础，在模式中引入了简化的混合相云方案，其中包括云水雨水的冻结、冰雪的融化等冰相过程；并把模式的水平分辨率由0.5°×0.5°提高到0.25°×0.25°经纬度网格。在此基础上建立了较高分辨率的同化预报系统，并使用实时资料进行预报对比试验。试验结果表明，改进后的降水落区预报有了明显进步，强降水中心的降雨量预报也有所增强，与原方案相比更接近于降水实况。     

超强台风鲇鱼路径北翘预报分析

利用常规气象观测资料、实时业务数值预报模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）ERA Interim全球再分析资料（1.5°×1.5°）以及NCEP全球再分析资料（1°×1°）,对1013号超强台风鲇鱼移入南海后路径突然北翘的原因进行了初步分析,并对业务数值预报模式及中日美三家综合业务预报的台风路径预报进行了检验。结果发现：南半球越赤道气流向北涌进致使赤道缓冲带北进与＂鲇鱼＂东侧的副热带高压脊合并是＂鲇鱼＂在南海路径发生突然北翘的主要原因;当业务数值预报模式出现较大分歧时,台风路径多模式集成预报或超级集合预报是解决数值预报较大分歧的有效途径,为此有必要加强台风路径多模式集成预报或超级集合预报综合应用平台的研发,并在此基础上进一步完善现有台风业务预报流程。     

高空西北气流下特大暴雨的预报误差分析及思考

利用常规及非常规气象资料、业务数值预报模式、GFS再分析资料(0.5°×0.5°),分析了2016年6月19日江西北部高空西北气流下特大暴雨环境场特征和数值模式误差,对比了相似形势的暴雨过程,找出业务预报误差较大的可能原因是对高空"干冷"西北气流南移、副热带高压北抬的速度、低空西南急流加强及前端辐合、上游移来短波槽、异常水汽条件的综合作用分析不到位,各类数值模式产品对降水落区预报偏北、强度预报偏弱也影响了预报员对暴雨的综合判断;给出了预报这类特大暴雨着眼点和预报概念模型以及订正模式降水的思路。     

GRAPES_MESO中时间步长和空间分辨率对于预报效果的影响

基于GRAPES区域中尺度数值预报系统(GRAPES_MESO),针对700 hPa、500 hPa和200 hPa的位势高度场H,温度场T,风场纬向分量U,经向分量V和地面降水场,在给定的模式物理过程下,分别考察了时间步长和空间分辨率对于模式预报效果的影响。研究结果表明,空间分辨率(0.3°×0.3°)相同时,各变量在不同层次的预报几乎都存在最优时间步长使得预报技巧最高,初步说明最优时间步长理论在复杂的偏微分方程组中的适用性。随后,将空间分辨率为0.3°×0.3°时最优时间步长(240 s)的预报结果与当前业务中(空间分辨率为0.15°×0.15°、时间步长为90 s)的预报结果进行比较,发现前者的变量H、T、U、V和地面降水场的预报技巧均高于后者,表明并不是空间分辨率越高预报效果越好。     

有地形数值模式中水平分辨率对预报质量的影响

本文对钱永甫等设计的p-σ坐标系两层数值预报模式进行了一些改进,设计了网格距为2.5°×2.5°和5°×5°的高、低水平分辨率模式。通过几种数值试验,探讨了有地形数值模式中水平分辨率与地形真实性对预报质量的影响。结果指出:高分辨率模式使预报质量得到显著的改善,主要是系统的移速和中心位置更接近实况,而且对较小尺度的天气系统也有一定的预报能力。模式中格距变小与地形真实性对预报质量的影响都很重要,高分辨率模式需要更合理的地形与之相匹配。     

一种定量降水预报误差检验技术及其应用

面向对象检验技术是定量降水预报误差分析方法之一,通过对某一降水过程进行分离,实现对其落区、量级等预报误差的定量化分析。基于面向对象的检验方法和天气系统识别技术,本文利用实况观测资料、ECMWF全球数值模式产品,以2012年汛期西南地区5个典型强降水天气过程作为检验对象,对其降水及天气尺度影响系统1～10 d模式预报误差进行了定量化分析。分析表明:在中短期时效内,模式均对西南地区雨带位置预报偏北、偏西,中期时效内偏差更显著,雨带主轴上70%以上的点预报较实况偏北在2°以内,偏西约3°以内;预报的大雨及以上量级降水量较实况偏弱;模式1～2 d预报的极值分布与实况较为接近,随着预报时效延长,预报的极值较实况明显偏小;模式预报的小雨及以下量级的降水范围较实况偏大,对大雨以上量级的降水范围较实况明显偏小。对于四川盆地而言,预报的切变线较零场偏西0.5°～3°。低空急流预报偏西0.5°～1.5°;低空急流强度预报偏差具有季节差异。     

北半球七层初始方程谱模式在制作有限区数值预报中的应用

本文提出了一种以北半球七层初始方程谱模式为基本模型的有限区加密方法。这个方法利用谱模式的特点对初始场展开和时间积分中的非线性项计算增加了一些处理，使所选有限区范围内（50°—140°E，20°—60°N）的分辨率有所提高，使模式能在制作出北半球较低分辨率（5°×5°）预报的同时，还能制作出有限区较高分辨率（2.5°×2.5°）的预报。用ECMWF分析资料进行了24小时和48小时预报对比试验，得到了较好的结果。     

基于数值预报与雷达外推预报融合方法的降水回波短临预报试验研究

采用傅里叶-梅林变换、多尺度光流法及威布尔分布,对湖北省2020年6—7月4次降水过程雷达回波进行多尺度预报试验及其相位和强度校正。在此基础上,利用双曲正切函数对校正后的模式降水回波预报和雷达回波外推临近预报进行融合。最后,基于预报技巧评分和平均绝对误差及命中率等指标对不同时效、尺度及回波阈值的预报结果进行定量分析。结果表明:(1)融合后的0~3 h降水回波预报在范围和位置上均较模式预报和雷达外推预报改进明显,尤其对强回波预报有明显优势,对对流预报有积极作用;0.01°×0.01°尺度的0~1 h预报效果明显好于其他尺度及预报时效。(2)武汉RUC模式预报效果最差,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)最大为6.1~8.2 dBZ,而融合预报效果最好,MAE最小为4.7~6.5 dBZ。0.01°×0.01°尺度下融合预报的命中率(probability of detection,POD)随回波阈值和预报时效增加而降低,而其他尺度下20 dBZ回波阈值的平均POD最大、MAE最小,平均POD(MAE)均高于(低于)其他2种预报。总体来看,融合预报明显优于单一预报,对改进0~3 h定量降水预报有一定参考。     

垂直分层加密和预报区域扩大对GRAPES_TYM台风预报的影响

为提升GRAPES_TYM对西北太平洋和中国南海热带气旋路径及强度的预报能力、增加对北印度洋热带气旋的预报,2019年8月GRAPES_TYM 3.0版投入业务运行。GRAPES_TYM 3.0版的模式垂直分层由GRAPES_TYM 2.2版的50层增加到68层;预报区域由覆盖西北太平洋、中国南海扩展到覆盖北印度洋。试验结果显示:模式垂直分层增加可以改进模式对强台风及超强台风的预报能力,减小平均路径预报误差、显著减小平均强度预报误差以及强度预报负偏差;模式预报区域扩大到覆盖北印度洋对平均路径误差和平均强度误差影响不显著,但长时效预报比较敏感,如20°N以北热带气旋120 h预报路径。2016—2018年的回算结果与NCEP-GFS和ECMWF的预报结果对比分析表明:GRAPES_TYM 3.0版的平均路径误差与NCEP-GFS接近,同ECMWF相比误差较大;但24—96 h强度预报误差明显小于NCEP-GFS和ECMWF,NCEP-GFS和ECMWF对热带气旋强度预报存在明显的负偏差。综上所述,模式垂直分层由50层增加到68层对热带气旋强度预报至关重要,而长时效路径预报对模式预报区域扩大到覆盖北印度洋更为敏感。      

CWRF模式对夏季降水的集合预报试验研究

以ISWS/UIUC发展的CWRF数值模式为试验模式,NOAA全球预报系统(GFS)每天4次的实时预报资料作模式初始和边界条件,同时采用NCEP每天发布的0.5°×0.5°全球SST实时分析资料,分别选取不同的云物理参数化、积云参数化、边界层参数化和辐射方案共计8种参数化组合方案,形成了8组、4个时次共计32个成员的集合预报体系,设计了时变权重分配和动态权重分配两种方案,开展了120 h的实时集合预报试验。试验结果表明,CWRF对中国区域降水有较好的预报能力;在短期降水预报中,集合成员对积云参数化方案更加敏感;考虑了前期预报误差的动态分配权重技术的集合预报方案能够及时反映模式在不同物理参数化方案下,在不同地方、不同预报时效的预报性能,总体上优于不考虑前期预报误差的时变集合预报方案和单个成员的预报。     

改进的精细分辨率雷达探测强对流效果评估

简要介绍了改进精细分辨率雷达所涉及的提高空间分辨率和智能化、快速扫描等技术。利用改进后的雷达精细分辨率数据和原始分辨率数据,对不同强天气类型的探测效果进行了对比分析,结果表明：精细分辨率数据可获得比原始分辨率数据更大的相对径向速度,辐合辐散和速度极值也更明显;获取更为清晰的超级单体结构以及龙卷涡旋特征和龙卷碎片特征等,更早识别出对流单体和雷暴云团;采用精细分辨率数据进行定量降水估计的精度与原始分辨率数据相当或略有提升。改进后精细分辨率数据具有更高的空间分辨率（双偏振）雷达观测特征,在对中小尺度强对流回波监测和识别的实际业务中具有较明显优势。     

ON THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS TO THE MOIST PHYSICS AND THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF NUMERICAL MODEL*

The impacts of the enhanced model's moist physics and horizontal resolution upon the QPFs(quantitative precipitation forecasts) are investigated by applying the HIRLAM(high resolution limited area model) to the summer heavy-rain cases in China.The performance of the control run,for which a 0.5°×0.5°grid spacing and a traditional "grid-box supersaturation removal+Kuo type convective paramerization" are used as the moist physics,is compared with that of the sensitivity runs with an enhanced model's moist physics(Sundqvist scheme) and an increased horizontal resolution(0.25°×0.25°),respectively.The results show:(1) The enhanced moist physics scheme(Sundqvist scheme),by introducing the cloud water content as an additional prognostic variable and taking into account briefly of the microphysics involved in the cloud-rain conversion,does bring improvements in the model's QPFs.Although the deteriorated QPFs also occur occasionally,the improvements are found in the majority of the cases,indicating the great potential for the improvement of QPFs by enhancing the model's moist physics.(2) By increasing the model's horizontal resolution from 0.5°×0.5°,which is already quite high compared with that of the conventional atmospheric soundings,to 0.25°×0.25°without the simultaneous enhancement in model physics and objective analysis,the improvements in QPFs are very limited.With higher resolution,although slight amelioration in locating the rainfall centers and in resolving some finer structures of precipitation pattern are made,the number of the mis-predicted fine structures in rainfall field increases with the enhanced model resolution as well.     

Modeling the tropical Pacific Ocean using a regional coupled climate model

A high-resolution tropical Pacific general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a global atmospheric GCM is described in this paper. The atmosphere component is the 5°×4°global general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) with 9 levels in the vertical direction. The ocean component with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°, is based on a low-resolution model (2°×1°in longitude-latitude).Simulations of the ocean component are first compared with its previous version. Results show that the enhanced ocean horizontal resolution allows an improved ocean state to be simulated; this involves (1) an apparent decrease in errors in the tropical Pacific cold tongue region, which exists in many ocean models,(2) more realistic large-scale flows, and (3) an improved ability to simulate the interannual variability and a reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in a long time integration. In coupling these component models, a monthly "linear-regression" method is employed to correct the model's exchanged flux between the sea and the atmosphere. A 100-year integration conducted with the coupled GCM (CGCM) shows the effectiveness of such a method in reducing climate drift. Results from years 70 to 100 are described.The model produces a reasonably realistic annual cycle of equatorial SST. The large SSTA is confined to the eastern equatorial Pacific with little propagation. Irregular warm and cold events alternate with a broad spectrum of periods between 24 and 50 months, which is very realistic. But the simulated variability is weaker than the observed and is also asymmetric in the sense of the amplitude of the warm and cold events.     

Influence of spatial and temporal scales on statistical analyses of rainfall variability in the River Nile basin

In this study, empirical orthogonal function was applied to analyze rainfall variability in the Nile basin based on various spatio-temporal scales. The co-occurrence of rainfall variability and the variation in selected climate indices was analyzed based on various spatio-temporal scales. From the highest to the lowest, the cumulative amount of variance explained by the first two principal components (PCs) for any selected size of the spatial domain was obtained for the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series respectively. The variability in the annual rainfall of 1° × 1° spatial coverage explained by only the first PC was about 55% on average. However, this percentage reduced to about 40% on average across the study area when the size of the spatial domain was increased from 1° × 1° to 10° × 10°. The variation in climate indices was shown to explain rainfall variability more suitably at a regional than location-specific spatial scale. The magnitudes and sometimes signs of the correlation between rainfall variability and the variation in climate indices tended to vary from one time scale to another. These findings are vital in the selection of spatial and temporal scales for more considered attribution of rainfall variability across the study area.     

用卫星OLR资料估算中国大陆月降水量

利用国家卫星气象中心处理的NOAA下午轨道卫星的OLR资料,用Xie等在1998年的文章中提出的月降水量计算模式,计算了1991-2008年地理范围在10°～60°N、75°～150°E、分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的中国大陆月降水量,得出:用OLR月距平资料可以计算出月降水量,模式估算出的降水量通过与NCEP提供的18年月降水量陆地观测数据对比,精度为:冬季相对误差49.14%、绝对误差7.97 mm;春季相对误差37.60%、绝对误差14.97 mm;夏季相对误差27.37%、绝对误差31.61mm;秋季相对误差37.99%、绝对误差16.95 mm,可见精度效果并不是太好,造成误差的主要原因是降水机制不一,层状云降水特别是逆温层状云和连续阴天不下雨,以及月平均OLR不能完整地反映月内降水云和降水量是造成用OLR月距平估算月降水量的主要误差来源.通过对FY-2C卫星云分类产品的图像分析,得出中国南方冬季主要是层状云降水,OLR月距平值较高,用全球的A、B系数估算出的降水量偏低于实况,因此对中国大陆进行分区、分季节统计A、B系数,是解决OLR月距平估算月降水量精度问题的途径.     

High latitude river runoff in a doubled CO2 climate

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the monthly river flow for nine of the world's major high latitude rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO₂ climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4° × 5°, but the model's runoff from each grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2° × 2.5° resolution. A routing scheme is used to move runoff from a grid box to its neighboring downstream grid box and ultimately to the mouth of the river. In a model simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, mean annual precipitation and river flow increase for all of these rivers, increased outflow at the river mouths begins earlier in the spring, and the maximum outflow occurs approximately one month sooner due to an earlier snow melt season. In the doubled CO₂ climate, snow mass decreases for the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers in North America and for rivers in northwestern Asia, but snow mass increases for rivers in northeastern Asia.     

On the ability of the regional climate model RIEMS to simulate the present climate over Asia

A continuous 10-year simulation in Asia for the period of 1 July 1988 to 31 December 1998 was conducted using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) with NCEP Reanalysis II data as the driving fields. The model processes include surface physics state package (BATS 1e), a Holtslag explicit planetary boundary layer formulation, a Grell cumulus parameterization, and a modified radiation package (CCM3). Model-produced surface temperature and precipitation are compared with observations from 1001 meteorology stations distributed over Asia and with the 0.5 × 0.5 CRU gridded dataset. The analysis results show that: (1) RIEMS reproduces well the spatial pattern and the seasonal cycle of surface temperature and precipitation; (2) When regionally averaged, the seasonal mean temperature biases are within 1–2C. For precipitation, the model tends to give better simulation in winter than in summer, and seasonal precipitation biases are mostly in the range of ?12%–50%; (3) Spatial correlation coefficients between observed and simulated seasonal precipitation are higher in north of the Yangtze River than in the south and higher in winter than in summer; (4) RIEMS can well reproduce the spatial pattern of seasonal mean sea level pressure. In winter, the model-simulated Siberian high is stronger than the observed. In summer, the simulated subtropical high is shifted northwestwards; (5) The temporal evolution of the East Asia summer monsoon rain belt, with steady phases separated by more rapid transitions, is reproduced.     

Application of multimodel ensemble techniques for real time district level rainfall forecasts in short range time scale over Indian region

During the summer monsoon (1 June to 30 September) 2007, real-time district level rainfall forecasts in short-range time scale were generated for Indian region applying multimodel ensemble technique. The pre-assigned grid point weights on the basis of correlation coefficients (CC) between the observed values and forecast values are determined for each constituent model at the resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° utilizing two seasons datasets (1 June to 30 September, 2005 and 2006), and the multimodel ensemble forecasts (day 1 and day 2 forecasts) are generated at the same resolution on a real-time basis. The ensemble forecast fields are then used to prepare forecasts for each district taking the average value of all grid points falling in a particular district. In this paper we examined the performance skill of the multimodel ensemble-based real-time district level short-range forecast of rainfall. It has clearly emerged from the results that the multimodel ensemble technique reported in this study is superior to each ensemble member. District wise performance of the ensemble rainfall forecast reveals that the technique, in general, is capable of providing reasonably good forecast skill over most districts of the country, particularly over the districts where the monsoon systems are dominant. Though the procedure shows appreciable skill to predict occurrence or non-occurrence of rainfall at the district level, it always underestimates rainfall amount, particularly in heavy rainfall events. Possible reasons of this failure may be due to model bias and poor data assimilation procedure.     

诱发哈萨克斯坦夏季强降水的环流结构特征

采用FNL1°×1°和CPC0.5°×0.5°再分析资料,通过对比分析夏季哈萨克斯坦不同区域的3次强降水过程的环流特征,揭示了诱发强降水的环流结构。结果表明：哈萨克斯坦各区域出现强降水时,西部和东部的强降水中心位于高空急流带入口区右侧,北部位于出口区左侧,辐散抽吸作用利于上升运动发展;强降水的影响系统主要为500 hPa低涡,强降水中心位于低涡槽线前部西南气流带上,中层温度平流对强降水发生有促进作用,西部和北部强降水中心位于低层冷平流大值区,东部则位于东北冷平流南侧的气旋性辐合区;除哈萨克斯坦东部强降水受地形影响地面系统尺度较小外,西部和北部强降水时地面有明显的冷锋,并存在气旋性的辐合切变,冷暖汇合形成的辐合线是强降水的主要中尺度触发系统;哈萨克斯坦强降水的水汽源地主要为地中海、黑海、波斯湾和北冰洋,经长途输送在强降水区形成强的水汽辐合,辐合值＞40×10-6 g?cm-1?s-1。