多级模糊综合评判在油气资源评价中的应用

基于模糊综合评判理论，建立了一级评判、多级评判的模型，讨论了模糊评判的反问题及其应用，用VC^ 5.0语言在Windows95/98平台上开发了相应的程序，给出了一级评判和多级评判模型在储层评价方面的应用实例，结果表明，多级模糊综合评判不但比传统的判别分析更符合客观实际，同时，通过反问题的求解，可重构相应的因素集和评价集，有助于成因机理预测。     

基于离差加权的煤矿突水水源判别模型及应用

矿井突(涌)水水源的快速识别是矿井水害有效防治的前提条件。针对应用模糊综合评判方法解决水源判别常用的"超标加权法"和"偏标加权法"确定判别因子的权重系数方面存在的不足,结合方差分析中的离差分解法,提出了矿井突水水源判别权重系数确定的离差加权法;利用SPSS软件,并以淮南潘三矿为例,对上述3种模型进行对比分析研究。结果表明:基于离差加权的模糊综合评判能够有效的判别突水水源,比"超标加权法"和"偏标加权法"有更高的判别率;基于离差加权的模糊综合评判具有原理清晰、结构简单、运算量小、更为合理等优点,适合快速识别水源,为矿井水害防治提供了一种辅助决策手段。      

改进模糊综合评价模型对岩溶山区茶叶产地土壤重金属污染评判

优化的模糊综合评价模型,有助于查明生态茶叶园区表层土壤(0～20 cm)重金属污染状况。以Hg、As、Cd、Pb、Cr、Cu为评判因子,运用最小相对信息熵原理,将污染物“超标倍数法”与“双权重超标赋权法”相结合,形成综合权重,对传统模糊综合评价模型进行了改进。接着对茶叶园区土壤重金属污染做了评判,并对比评判结果。结果表明,改进后的模糊综合评价模型,在计算评判因子权重时,综合土壤重金属浓度和毒理,评判结果更加合理;该茶叶园区土壤清洁率达38.81%、尚清洁率达61.19%,尚无土壤污染区。说明该茶叶园区土壤环境质量整体较好,满足无公害茶叶产地要求;对比评判结果,改进的模糊综合评价模型等级划分更加科学,评判结果客观。为优化岩溶山区茶叶区域布局提供参考。      

储层质量模糊评判权重的确定方法

将模糊综合评判方法与神经网络技术相结合，利用神经网络的自学习功能来获取模糊综合评判中评价参数的权重，并通过实际储层质量评价验证了这种方法的有效性。     

某水电站近坝库岸边坡稳定性二次模糊综合评判

本文将大范围边坡稳定性的众多影响因素进行总结分类,并针对评价指标分级的特点,将传统的两级模糊综合评判模型作适当改进,进行二次模糊综合评判。以某水电站近坝库岸边坡为例,在确定各评价指标选择依据和评价标准的基础上,建立了该库岸边坡稳定性的二次模糊综合评判模型。结果表明,基本地质因素在模糊综合评判中起着控制作用,其中岸坡结构类型和岩性对库岸边坡稳定性的影响最为显著。     

煤田地质勘探钻孔瓦斯突出危险性评价

基于灰色关联分析法和模糊综合评判理论,综合考虑煤体结构、瓦斯压力和含量、地质构造、煤层埋深以及煤厚等因素,利用勘探钻孔所测瓦斯资料,建立了勘探钻孔煤层瓦斯突出危险性评价模型,并以重庆松藻矿区为例,对矿区勘探钻孔附近煤层瓦斯突出危险性进行了评价。结果表明:模型评判结果与矿井实际生产揭露情况一致,评判结果可靠。该模型避免了以往勘探阶段仅利用单项指标或简单综合指标进行突出危险评价的不足,使评价指标更全面,评判结果更可靠。      

模糊综合评判模型在宝坻水源地地下水水质评价中的应用

运用模糊综合评判模型,对中石化天津分公司宝坻水源地奥陶系灰岩地下水水质行综合评价。评价结果表明,研究区采样点水质总体评判级别为I级,说明该区地下水水质较好,而氟离子含量超标是由于地区背景值造成的,这一结论与该区其它研究成果评价结果一致。说明模糊综合评判模型是一种较实用的地下水水质评判方法。     

专家辅助找矿系统中模糊综合评判（FCA）模型的软件实现及应用——以云南会泽铅锌矿隐伏矿预测为例

模糊综合评判(FCA)模型是应用模糊数学的理论与方法,通过综合评判多个控制因素的权重,对某一事件进行评价的数学模型.以云南会泽铅锌矿为例,选择了地层、构造、岩性控矿因素为模糊评价因素集,建立了FCA模型,编制了计算机程序进行软件实现.对构造地球化学数据进行了评判试验,实现隐伏矿预测.研究结果表明,由多因素决定的矿化异常与实际工程验证结果吻合.FCA模型可用于评价地质、生态、环境、气象、农业、经济等多个领域中由多个因素控制的事件,具有普遍意义.     

济宁市开采层地下水水质的Fuzzy综合评判及FORTRAN程序

本文在指出经典指数法存在问题的基础上,阐述了模糊综合评判能弥补其它方法的不足,并讨论了两个模糊模型的建立。该方法借助于微型计算机,计算方便。所编程序可同时计算出M(∧,∨ )、M(·,∨ )、M(∧,)、M(·,)四种模型的综合评判值,可相互对比,评价结果能真实地反映实际。用这种方法对济宁市开采层地下水水质进行了评价,得到了令人满意的结果。     

岩溶区地裂缝灾害程度两级模糊综合评判

本文采用多级模糊综合评判的理论与方法，建立了岩溶区地裂缝灾害程度的综合评判模型及评判指标，综合评判计算模型，并具体结合广西来宾、小平阳，峰林平原区三个重要区段内岩溶区地裂缝的灾害程度，进行了两级模糊综合评判，其综合评判与分区结果较好地真实反映出这三个区段内地裂缝灾害程度的实际强弱及未来可能之发展趋势。     

长江上游沱江流域地表水环境质量时空变化特征

沱江是长江流域上游最重要的支流之一,为了明晰沱江流域水质时空变化特征和防治重点,根据2010—2017年沱江流域36个监测断面水质监测数据,采用单因子评价法和秩相关系数法,从年份、月份、季度和水期4个时间段进行了分析.结果表明:沱江流域水质状况总体上污染较重,但有向好趋势,总磷(TP)为首要污染物,流域断面达标率呈先上升后下降复上升的趋势;水质指标浓度年内变化显著,水质指标浓度丰水期达到最小值,枯水期达到最大值;沱江干流监测断面水质类别好于支流;TP和氨氮(NH₃-N)浓度空间变异性较弱,化学需氧量(COD)和生化需氧量(BOD₅)浓度则存在较强空间变异性.虽然沱江流域水质有变好趋势,但沱江流域面临的污染问题依然严峻,今后要高度重视污染源治理,尤其是TP的防治工作.      

Assessment of groundwater residence times in the pore aquifers of the River Elbe Basin

An area covering assessment of the groundwater residence times for the upper pore aquifers in the River Elbe Basin was performed. Residence times were determined by combining groundwater velocities and flow distances along each flow-path to the surface waters using a two-dimensional model approach. Groundwater velocity was calculated as a function of hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic gradient and effective yield of pore space. Flow paths were obtained by an analysis of the morphology of the groundwater table. The mean groundwater residence time in the pore aquifers of the River Elbe Basin was quantified to about 25 years. A strong temporal blurring in the different regions between less than one year and more than 250 years was obtained. For the regional groundwater management in the Elbe Basin the groundwater residence times are an important parameter, which helps to take into account the temporal dimension in the assessment of the impact of political measures aiming at the improvement of groundwater quality with regard to diffuse pollutants (e.g. nitrate).     

Influence of flooding on groundwater flow in central Cambodia

Cambodia is affected by flooding from the Mekong, Tonle Sap and Bassac rivers every year, which harms human populations and damages property, as well as alters the water quality in aquifer systems. The objective of this paper is to highlight the effects of river flooding on groundwater flow using numerical simulation. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model coupled with a groundwater recharge model was applied to the research area in central Cambodia. River level variation was included in model processes, and flood areas and periods were assigned. The results showed that during flooding periods, floodwater from the three rivers played an important role in recharging groundwater. During the dry season, Tonle Sap River received groundwater supply from the northwest, and levels in the Bassac and Mekong River dropped to lower than the groundwater level. This study improves understanding of the surface water and groundwater flow system in the study area.     

中线调水前汉江中下游水量和水质本底特性及变化趋势分析

为研究南水北调中线工程调水前,汉江中下游的水量和水质本底特性及变化趋势,选择汉江中下游6个水文站及4个水质观测断面,采用数理统计、Mann-Kendall检验和Spearman秩次检验法,分别从水量和水质两个方面进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)对比分析历史长序列流量资料,1999~2013年间汉江中下游地区处于偏枯期;(2)汉江中下游水量的年际变化较大,极值比介于2.7~3.3之间。水量年内各月分配变化也较大,汛期径流量占全年的63%~66%,非汛期仅占全年的34%~37%;(3)汉江中下游地区各水文测站的年均流量序列,总体上随时间变化的趋势均不显著,但经历了1980~1990的偏丰期及1990~2013的偏枯期;(4)汉江中下游地区的水质达标情况较好,大部分年份的水质均优于III类水质标准,且水质无显著的变化趋势。     

塔里木河水质盐化及改善途径

塔里木河在1958年前是一条淡水河,河水的矿化度在各段及不同季节均未超过1.0g/L,现全河段各月平均矿化度除8月洪水季节<1.0g/L,其余各月都在1.0g/L以上。上游阿拉尔水文站平均每年有5个月为1～3g/L,4个月为3～5g/L,2个月超过5g/L,最高5月份达到6.3g/L.阿拉尔的淡水所占比例不足年平均径流量的35%.下游卡拉全部为微咸水。造成塔里木河水矿化度升高的原因,除气候干旱、蒸发强烈、土壤含盐量高等自然因素外,主要是灌溉、排水不合理,上游三条主要支流灌溉引水增加,使补给干流的淡水资源量由1960年前的50.0亿m3减少到1990年后的42.0亿m3;与此同时大量农田排水泄入塔里木河,每年带入盐量达467.4万t.要改善塔里木河水质,必须减少农田排水泄入,实行咸、淡分流,退耕还林;并在源流区适度开发地下水,使三源流向塔里木河输水量每年不少于46.0亿m3。     

辽河大伙房水库汇水区农业非点源污染入库模拟

利用输出系数法和SWAT模型,对大伙房水库汇水区农业非点源污染(ANSP)进行了入库模拟研究,并用2006—2009年的水文和水质监测数据对模型进行了校准和验证。研究结果表明:汇水区年均输入到水库的泥沙量、总氮和总磷负荷分别为82.65×103 t、1 873.49t和81.97t;月入库泥沙量、总氮和总磷负荷与径流量有着较强的相关性,ANSP的产生和迁移受降水、径流过程影响很大,每年7、8月份的氮、磷和泥沙流失量达到年内最大值,分别占全年流失总量的42.64%、44.42%和67.91%。水库汇水区各流域对水库氮、磷污染的贡献率由大到小依次为:浑河流域(清原段)、苏子河流域、社河流域和水库周边小流域。     

A decade of variation of COD in the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） and its variation trend analysis

The average annual value of COD (chemical oxygen demand) fluxes of the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) and its main tributaries in the past decade (i.e., 1991–2000), has been evaluated. Based on the data from the Datong Hydrological Station (DHS), it was found that the Dongting Lake drainage basin contributed the greatest water discharge (35.8%) and COD flux (48.3%) among the main tributary drainage basins, followed by the Poyang Lake drainage basin with the contributions of 15.4% and 19.3%,respectively. By the end of the year of 2000, COD flux in the Changjiang River rose by almost 45% relative to that in the year of 1991, reaching about 1941000 ton/a at DHS. Statistical analysis revealed that industrial wastewater discharge, as well as COD in it, was found decreasing in the same period, due to the gradual reinforcement of environmental management. Moreover, correlation analysis indicated that non-point pollution from agriculture and increasing discharge of domestic sewages caused by rapid growth of population along the Changjiang River drainage valley should be responsible for the high COD. Furthermore, with the current trend of population growth and agricultural development in this basin, water quality of the Changjiang River, in terms of COD level, is going to deteriorate in the near future. Thus, the rational applications of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture and the proper treatment of domestic sewages before they are discharged would be the most concerned controlling parameters.     

Characteristics of the main inorganic nitrogen accumulation in surface water and groundwater of wetland succession zones

Based on the observation of a complete hydrological year from June 2014 to May 2015, the temporal and spatial variations of the main inorganic nitrogen (MIN, referring to NO3--N, NO2--N, NH4+-N) in surface water and groundwater of the Li River and the Yuan River wetland succession zones are analyzed. The Li River and the Yuan River are located in agricultural and non-agricultural areas, and this study focus on the influence of surface water level and groundwater depth and precipitation on nitrogen pollution. The results show that NO3--N in surface water accounts for 70%-90% of MIN, but it does not exceed the limit of national drinking water surface water standard. Groundwater is seriously polluted by NH4+-N. Based on the groundwater quality standard of NH4+-N, the groundwater quality in the Li River exceeds Class III water standard throughout the year, and the exceeding months’ proportion of Yuan River reaches 58.3%. Compared with the Yuan River, MIN in groundwater of the Li River shows significant temporal and spatial variations owing to the influence of agricultural fertilization. The correlation between the concentrations of MIN and surface water level is poor, while the fitting effect of quadratic correlation between NH4+-N concentration and groundwater depth is the best (R2=0.9384), NO3--N is the next (R2=0.5128), NO2--N is the worst (R2=0.2798). The equation of meteoric water line is δD =7.83δ18O+12.21, indicating that both surface water and groundwater come from atmospheric precipitation. Surface infiltration is the main cause of groundwater NH4+-N pollution. Rainfall infiltration in non-fertilization seasons reduces groundwater nitrogen pollution, while rainfall leaching farming and fertilization aggravate groundwater nitrogen pollution.     

Characteristics of the main inorganic nitrogen accumulation in surface water and groundwater of wetland succession zones

Based on the observation of a complete hydrological year from June 2014 to May 2015, the temporal and spatial variations of the main inorganic nitrogen(MIN, referring to NO_3~--N, NO_2~--N, NH_4~+-N) in surface water and groundwater of the Li River and the Yuan River wetland succession zones are analyzed. The Li River and the Yuan River are located in agricultural and non-agricultural areas, and this study focus on the influence of surface water level and groundwater depth and precipitation on nitrogen pollution. The results show that NO_3~-N in surface water accounts for 70%-90% of MIN, but it does not exceed the limit of national drinking water surface water standard. Groundwater is seriously polluted by H_4~+-N. Based on the groundwater quality standard of H_4~+-N, the groundwater quality in the Li River exceeds Class III water standard throughout the year, and the exceeding months' proportion of Yuan River reaches 58.3%. Compared with the Yuan River, MIN in groundwater of the Li River shows significant temporal and spatial variations owing to the influence of agricultural fertilization. The correlation between the concentrations of MIN and surface water level is poor, while the fitting effect of quadratic correlation between H_4~+-N concentration and groundwater depth is the best(R~2=0.9384), NO_3~-N is the next(R~2=0.5128), NO_2~--N is the worst(R~2=0.2798). The equation of meteoric water line is δD =7.83δ~(18) O+12.21, indicating that both surface water and groundwater come from atmospheric precipitation. Surface infiltration is the main cause of groundwater H_4~+-N pollution. Rainfall infiltration in non-fertilization seasons reduces groundwater nitrogen pollution, while rainfall leaching farming and fertilization aggravate groundwater nitrogen pollution.     

基于海明贴近度的模糊物元模型在孝妇河水质评价中的应用

河流污染已成为全球范围内普遍存在的环境问题之一。鉴于河流水质评价中存在的不确定性和模糊性,本文在物元分析的基础上,将海明贴近度和模糊物元分析理论相结合,建立了基于海明贴近度的河流水质评价模糊物元模型。运用该模型对孝妇河水质进行评价,结果表明：得到的评价样本与标准样本两者相互接近的程度能够比较客观的反映河流的水质状况,与实际情况吻合较好;运用熵权法确定评价指标的权重,考虑了各监潮指标的差异程度,减少了计算主观性的干扰,使评价结果更加准确合理。