基于直觉模糊集关联测度的突出危险性预测法

针对煤与瓦斯突出影响因素较复杂、突出临界值难以确定和预测结果随机性大等问题,利用直觉模糊集可以解决系统具有不确定属性的隶属度问题,提出了基于直觉模糊集关联测度的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,该模型将属于定性指标的构造复杂程度与残存瓦斯含量、瓦斯涌出初速度、支架最大载荷、盖山深度和软分层厚度5个定量指标有机地结合起来,通过对阳煤集团某矿三个回采工作面煤与瓦斯突出危险性性评判,其结果与现场采用钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度、钻屑量预测结果吻合,为突出煤层的危险性预测评估提供了一种新的途径。     

川达煤矿4号煤层＋1195m标高以上瓦斯突出危险性评价

通过测压孔现场实测4号煤层的原始瓦斯压力、钻孔瓦斯自然涌出量,并用刻槽法在测压点附近取样,实验室测定瓦斯吸附常数、煤的孔隙率及煤的坚固性系数f、瓦斯放散初速度ΔP等参数。依据煤层突出危险性单项指标和综合指标评价,认为川达煤矿4号煤层目前采区＋1 195m标高以上不具有煤与瓦斯突出危险性。     

基于灰色关联-遗传神经网络的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型

在综合分析影响煤与瓦斯突出的各种评价指标的基础上,基于人工神经网络极强的非线性逼真能力,建立了煤与瓦斯突出强度预测的遗传神经网络模型。模型采用灰色关联理论完成了评价指标的优化,并利用遗传算法对BP网络初始权值和阈值的确定进行了优化。以重庆南桐矿区砚石台矿为例,对煤与瓦斯突出强度进行了预测,结果表明,采用本模型的预测结果与矿井实际突出状况一致,模型可靠,具有一定的理论与实际意义。     

基于BP神经网络的瓦斯含量预测

以淮南矿区潘一矿13-1煤层为研究对象,在分析勘探钻孔资料的基础上,确定了煤层埋深及厚度、顶底板岩性、地质构造和煤变质程度是影响煤层瓦斯含量的主要因素;使用BP神经网络方法建立了瓦斯含量预测模型;结合实际数据,对预测模型进行训练和检验。预测结果表明:该模型比使用多元线性回归预测能获得更高的精度,说明预测模型可靠。      

山西柳林兴无-金家庄煤矿下组煤层瓦斯地质特征

通过对兴无-金家庄煤矿下组煤层瓦斯赋存条件及煤储层特征分析,综合区域资料及上组煤层开采情况,对矿井下组煤瓦斯突出危险性进行了初步评价。本区下组煤层瓦斯CH4含量为0.05～4.63mL/g,平均1.48mL/g, CH4浓度在1.42%～96.63%,CO2浓度0.51%～64.01%,N2浓度在0.08%～68.20%,总体以深部CH4含量较高;煤的坚固性系数均大于0.3,瓦斯压力均小于0.74MPa,其它指标虽部分处于临界值范围,但综合评价本区下组煤层的突出综合指标不超标,突出危险性小。     

煤矿顺煤层钻孔施工新工艺

皖北煤电集团卧龙湖煤矿8煤层为瓦斯突出煤层,为消除煤层瓦斯突出的危险性,有效地降低煤层瓦斯含量和压力,采取顺煤层钻孔预抽回采区域煤层瓦斯措施。根据施工顺煤层钻孔的特殊要求,对顺煤层钻孔施工所需的设备、钻杆、钻具等进行了改进,并通过现场实验和试用,全面提升了顺煤层钻孔施工的工效,减少了钻孔在施工过程中喷孔、吸钻的次数,降低了钻探的投入。该技术及工艺在类似矿井中具有良好的推广前景。      

贵州省岔河勘探区主采煤层瓦斯压力分析

分析岔河勘探区龙潭组主要煤层6号煤瓦斯压力的实测结果,及部分钻孔依据煤层瓦斯含量计算的瓦斯压力,得出该主采煤层瓦斯压力均大于煤层突出危险性指标的临界值0.74MPa,说明该区主煤层存在突出危险性。比较实测瓦斯压力与计算结果,认为计算结果偏小的原因与煤层瓦斯含量有关：一是在钻具提升过程中部分瓦斯逃逸,造成煤样解吸测定过程中累计解吸的气体量变小;二是气体损失存在误差;三是解吸化验时间过长,产生泄出现象,导致实测瓦斯含量偏小。     

京西矿区地面塌陷危险性模糊综合评判

京西矿区地貌上属中低山,发育石炭系和侏罗系2套煤系地层,采用平硐和斜井开采方式回采煤层,经过多年开采地表塌陷普遍、现象独特。通过野外调查和实测,研究了京西矿区地面塌陷灾害的类型与分布特征,依据两级模糊综合评判的理论与方法,建立了矿区地面塌陷危险性评判模型及评判指标,运用GIS空间分析功能进行京西矿区地面塌陷危险性区划,将矿区地面塌陷划分为危险区、较危险区和稳定区。综合评判结果表明,区内地面塌陷危险程度有明显的分区性,地面塌陷危险区与矿区采空区的分布基本一致。     

煤矿隐伏小断层的瓦斯抽采钻孔探测方法

断层对煤与瓦斯突出危险性影响较大,准确探测断层位置对预防灾害具有重要作用。目前,煤矿进行采掘作业之前,施工大量瓦斯抽采钻孔,但是这些钻孔包含的地质信息未被充分重视,为此,提出了利用穿层、顺层瓦斯抽采钻孔群探测隐伏断层的技术方法。通过建立瓦斯抽采钻孔探测断层的数学模型,计算断层面、煤层底板的三维坐标,通过绘制煤层底板等高线图及其三维图,确定断层位置、落差、产状和断层性质等基础参数。基于Matlab软件的图形用户界面（GUI）工具,编写了瓦斯抽采钻孔探测断层的软件,实现了断层信息的可视化,为准确判识断层提供了技术平台。通过钻孔定位、模型计算、图像处理、断层识别等综合技术方法,成功实现了利用瓦斯抽采钻孔进行隐伏小断层探测。      

安阳矿区煤与瓦斯突出预测模型的建立与应用

利用灰色关联分析法确定控制矿井煤与瓦斯突出的主导因素,根据人工神经网络建立煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的系统结构,在此基础上,选用突出矿井的15个煤与瓦斯突出实例作为学习样本对网络进行训练,最后运用3个煤与瓦斯突出实例作为预测样本对所建模型进行验证。结果表明利用灰色理论—神经网络方法建立的预测模型能够满足煤与瓦斯突出预测的要求。通过分析和计算安阳矿区煤层的开采深度、地质构造(尤其是断层)与突出危险程度关系密切,在煤与瓦斯突出的预测、防治工作中可以作为首选指标来考虑。     

A novel method for evaluating proneness of gas outburst based on gas-geological complexity

The gas outburst, resulting in substantial economic losses and even casualties, is the biggest obstacle in coal mines, mostly caused by an imbalance of gas-geological structure. For accurately measuring this proneness, in this paper, a novel evaluation method was proposed based on the gas-geology theory. In this method, a standardization model of statistical units was presented first, which was used to standardize and quantify the 12 chosen gas-geological factors; and then, an associated function was established for computing the gas-geological complexity index (GCI). With increasing GCI values, the evaluated area was divided into four grades: simple, medium, complex, and extremely complex region, in which the associated proneness of outbursts was SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH, STRONG, respectively. Taking the XueHu Coal Mine as an example, site verification was carried out with a good result. Research and application indicate that (1) gas outburst is unbalanced and closely related to the complex of the gas geological structure, showing a greater GCI leads to a higher outburst possibility; (2) the most likely area for the gas outburst is the extremely complex region and the transition zone between adjacent areas with different GCI grades; (3) upgrading-targeted control measures are the best way for preventing and controlling disasters caused by the gas and outburst unbalanced distribution. This novel method provided a reliable quantity approach for predicting and zonally managing gas outbursts and improving the effectiveness of outbursts prevention.

     

A new mechanistic model for prediction of instantaneous coal outbursts — Dedicated to the memory of Prof. Daniel D. Joseph

An instantaneous coal outburst is a sudden and violent simultaneous ejection of large amounts of coal and gas (methane, carbon dioxide) from the working coalface during underground mining. The occurrence of such an outburst usually leads to a gas explosion and pollution of the mine. Despite extensive research efforts in the past 150 years, the physical mechanisms causing coal outbursts are still poorly understood. Here we present a new model combining fracture mechanics, gas dynamics and rock mechanics to elucidate the physical mechanisms leading to instantaneous outbursts. This model suggests a domino effect that leads to a catastrophic failure of the coal and an instantaneous outburst. The model identifies a critical condition for the onset of instantaneous outbursts, and it successfully predicts all of the observed phenomena preceding outbursts, most of which are explained for the first time. The model also predicts a fracture aperture size effect which is confirmed by the existing observation-based fracture classification scheme used to assess outburst proneness.     

地质勘查阶段查明瓦斯突出三要素的途径与方法

矿井瓦斯突出的三要素是煤体结构、瓦斯含量和瓦斯压力。煤及煤层气地面勘查阶段可以获取煤体结构描述、煤层（总）气含量、甲烷含量、煤层气自然解吸速率和衰减系数、煤层压力、地应力、煤层渗透率等参数。地面钻孔与煤矿井下测取这些参数的方法和原理虽然存在差异,但这些参数都是煤层原地物性特征的反映,故应该利用地面钻孔的实测数据和资料,广泛收录、整理对预测瓦斯突出有益的信息。建议在地质勘查阶段查明瓦斯突出三要素,将预防瓦斯灾害工作从地质勘查的源头做起。     

Current Research Status and Prospect of Tectonically Deformed Coal

A number of studies have shown that development areas of weak deformation brittle series of tectonically deformed coal are often the favorable areas for coalbed methane development, and the distribution area of the mylonitic coal of ductile deformation is a danger zone of mine gas outburst. Therefore, faced with solving the key scientific issues and technical problems of the coal bed methane exploration and development and gas outburst prediction and evaluation, more and more attention has been paid to the research on tectonically deformed coal. This paper first systematically elaborated the main research progress on the concept and classification of tectonically deformed coals, their deformation characteristics, and the pore fissure structure and chemical structure. Then, it pointed out that there was a lack of research on the ductile deformation mechanism of coal, and this key scientific problem needs further research in the future. It seemed that the structural and geochemical process of chemical elements migration and accumulation during coal deformation was a new field which is worth exploring. Through refining stress sensitive elements, their distribution and evolution patterns in different stress-strain environments and different types of tectonically deformed coals might be revealed, and then they could become a predictive index which indicates the significance of distribution of tectonically deformed coals and gas outburst prediction. It was thought that geophysical response characteristics and research of detection theory and interpretation method of different types of tectonically deformed coal and gas enrichment area should be an important development direction in the future.     

石门揭煤突出模拟实验台的设计与应用

基于石门揭煤过程中采掘应力场与瓦斯突出关系研究的需要,针对目前石门揭煤突出模型还处在实验室研究的阶段,而大部分都未能综合考虑瓦斯压力、地应力、煤的物理力学性质等对突出的影响,研制出一套能够综合考虑地应力、瓦斯压力及煤体结构的石门揭煤突出模拟试验系统。为取得准确、客观的试验效果,进行了密封、快速开启装置及氮气平衡系统等关键技术的设计,介绍了试验系统的主要组成结构、功能。利用该实验台进行石门揭煤突出试验,试验结果反映出在突出过程中地应力和瓦斯压力的变化情况,可为研究和揭示煤与瓦斯突出机制、突出过程中地应力和瓦斯压力的变化规律提供新的技术手段。     

瑞利波勘探技术在探测瓦斯聚集区域中的应用

在煤矿生产过程中,煤与瓦斯突出的问题经常发生,我国瓦斯灾害已成为煤矿群死群伤的头号杀手。煤与瓦斯突出是地应力、瓦斯、煤体结构等诸因素综合作用的结果。其中,地质构造因素起着主导控制作用。地质构造复杂的区域通常属于瓦斯灾害易发区域。发生煤与瓦斯突出的位置,多与地质构造破坏带有关,或发生在小断层,或发生在小背斜褶曲,或发生在裂隙带。笔者简要介绍了一种探测有地质构造区域的方法——瑞利波探测法。该方法利用了瑞利波的频散特性与岩土的物理力学性质的相关性的原理,通过对井下实地采集的数据进行分析、处理、解释,所预测的异常区域与实际的瓦斯卸压孔所显示的异常区域相符,是一种有效的探测方法,对保证煤矿安全生产有指导作用。     

Effect of Gas Pressure on Rock Burst Proneness Indexes and Energy Dissipation of Coal Samples

To investigate the influence of gas pressure on rock burst proneness of coal, the rock burst proneness tests were conducted under different gas pressures. Based on the energy method, the rock burst proneness and energy accumulation law are analyzed. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) The change laws of impact energy index, the effective impact energy index and the residual energy index are consistent, reducing with the increase of gas pressure. (2) Before the coal failure, the total energy, the elastic energy, and the dissipated energy of coal specimens increase with the increase of the stress. The increase speed of total energy is the fastest, the elastic energy takes the second place, and the dissipated energy is the slowest. (3) The failure energy ratio and stress drop coefficient defined by energy can be used to describe the rock burst proneness. (4) The failure modes of coal samples transform from brittle failure into ductile shear failure with the increase of gas pressure. (5) In the coal seam which has typical dynamic hazards, there is a critical value of gas pressure. When the gas pressure is higher than the critical value, gas outburst is the main disaster. When the gas pressure is lower than the critical value, the rock burst is the main disaster.     

煤与瓦斯突出的构造分区特征——以平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司十矿为例

针对平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司十矿(平煤十矿)煤与瓦斯突出的分区(带)性特点,采取地质单元划分的方法,反映其范围内的构造特征及瓦斯赋存情况。研究了地质单元范围内地应力分布、构造煤发育及分布特征的地质因素和瓦斯参数特征,结合平煤十矿煤与瓦斯突出特点,将瓦斯压力、构造煤厚度、瓦斯含量作为预测煤与瓦斯突出危险性的敏感指标,并据此预测具有突出危险性的范围,为煤与瓦斯突出预测和防治提供依据。      

煤巷掘进迎头煤与瓦斯突出的突变机制分析

将巷道简化为圆形,并将掘进迎头视为圆形直立层裂体建立力学模型;导出了层裂体总势能函数的表达式,建立了圆形层裂体的折叠突变模型,得出了瓦斯突出起动的突变条件,并用有限元方法进行了数值模拟。研究表明,层裂体两侧压力差超过临界值将导致瓦斯突出,这对有效防止瓦斯突出具有重要指导意义。