Signature of the Antarctic oscillation in the northern hemisphere

Using the ECWMF daily reanalysis data, this paper investigates signatures of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the upper troposphere of the northern hemisphere. It is found that during boreal winter, a positive (negative) phase of the AAO is associated with anomalous easterlies (westerlies) in middle-low latitudes (~30–40°N) and anomalous westerlies (easterlies) in middle-high latitudes (~45–65°N) of the upper troposphere about 25–40 days later. While there is also a response in zonal wind in the tropics, namely over the central-eastern Pacific, to some extent, these tropical zonal wind anomalies can trigger a Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns (PNA)-like quasi-stationary Rossby waves that propagate into the Northern Hemisphere and gradually evolve into patterns which resemble North Atlantic teleconnection patterns. Furthermore, these quasi-stationary Rossby waves might give rise to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence and divergence to accelerate anomalous zonal winds in the Northern Hemisphere.     

El Ni?o事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用 I. 资料诊断和理论分析

通过资料分析,研究了发生在热带西太平洋海表面西风或东风应力异常与El Ni?o事件的关系。分析结果表明,对应着El Ni?o事件从发生到消亡的过程,热带西太平洋纬向风应力存在着从西风应力异常到东风应力异常的变化,并且在这个过程中,西风应力异常向东传,东风应力异常紧接其后也向东传。本文还根据观测资料的分析结果建立了理想风应力,并利用简单热带海洋模式,对热带西太平洋纬向风应力异常及其东传在ENSO循环中的作用进行了动力学分析,指出了它们在El Ni?o事件发生和消亡中起着重要的作用。西风应力异常通过激发出海洋中东传的暖Kelvin波及其在大洋东边界反射产生的暖Rossby波、以及西风应力异常本身东传到赤道东太平洋,引起正的海洋混合层扰动厚度异常,导致了El Ni?o事件的发生;而异常东风应力则通过激发出东传的冷Kelvin波及其在大洋东边界反射产生的冷Rossby波、以及东风应力异常本身东传到赤道东太平洋,引起负的海洋混合层扰动厚度异常,导致了El Ni?o事件的消亡。对于热带西太平洋上风应力异常的形式是东部为异常西风应力而其西部为异常东风应力,并且它们同时向东传时,则大洋东部混合层厚度对异常风应力的响应随异常东风和西风应力的强度不同而不同,它们强度的相对大小对El Ni?o的持续时间具有重要的作用。     

热带大洋东、西部对风应力经圈不对称的响应

热带海洋,特别是热带太平洋,物理场在东、西两部分的经圈结构很不相同,西太平洋“暖池”的温度分布对赤道基本上是对称的,而东太平洋的“冷舌”偏在赤道以南,对赤道明显不对称。作者从波动性质解释了这种分布的特征,指出在西太平洋,由于对赤道对称的向东的Kelvin波具有较大的振幅,其权重明显大于Rossby短波,致使物理场具有对赤道的对称性;而在东太平洋,由边界激发出的偶次的和奇次的Rossby长波,振幅权重很相近,从而使物理场显不对称性。     

亚洲季风与ENSO循环的相互作用

ＥＮＳＯ事件对亚洲季风有很大影响,特别是对东亚夏季风环流有较大影响。许多观测事实表明,在ＥＮＳＯ事件处于发展阶段的夏季,江淮流域往往发生洪涝,黄河流域往往发生干旱,东北地区往往发生冷夏。本研究利用观测资料分析了亚洲季风对ＥＮＳＯ事件发生的影响。分析结果表明,在ＥＮＳＯ事件发生前,在热带太平洋上空对流层下层有明显的西风异常;这个西风异常将会加强东传暖Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波和西传冷Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波,为ＥＮＳＯ循环提供必要的赤道海洋波动条件;并且这个西风异常与东亚季风区西风异常向南传播有密切关系。通过遥相关分析表明,东亚季风西风异常的南传是通过欧亚型遥相关的波列来实现。通过分析,本研究提出一种亚洲季风与ＥＮＳＯ循环相互作用的物理图像。     

Advances in research on atmospheric energy propagation and the interactions between different latitudes

Early theoretical analyses indicated that the tropics and extratropics are relatively independent due to the existence of critical latitudes. However, considerable observational evidence has shown that a clear dynamical link exists between the tropics and midlatitudes. To better understand such atmospheric teleconnection, several theories of wave energy propagation are reviewed in this paper: (1) great circle theory, which reveals the characteristics of Rossby waves propagating in the spherical atmosphere; (2) westerly duct theory, which suggests a “corridor” through which the midlatitude disturbances in one hemisphere can propagate into the other hemisphere; (3) energy accumulation-wave emanation theory, which proposes processes through which tropical disturbances can affect the atmospheric motion in higher latitudes; (4) equatorial wave expansion theory, which further explains the physical mechanisms involved in the interaction between the tropics and extratropics; and (5) meridional basic flow theory, which argues that stationary waves can propagate across the tropical easterlies under certain conditions. In addition, the progress made in diagnosing wave-flow interaction, particularly for Rossby waves, inertial-gravity waves, and Kelvin waves, is also reviewed. The meridional propagation of atmospheric energy exhibits significant annual and interannual variations, closely related to ENSO and variation in the westerly jets and tropical upper-tropospheric troughs, amongst others.     

冬夏季环流隔季相关的数值试验

利用海气耦合和大气气候模式研究东亚冬季风异常对夏季环流的影响, 结果表明, 东亚冬季风异常对于后期环流及海洋状态异常都起了很大的作用.一般情况下, 强的冬季风与后期弱的东亚夏季风和较强的南海季风相对应.与强(弱)冬季风异常相关的风应力的改变可以使热带太平洋海温从冬季至夏季呈现La Nina (El Nio)型异常分布.试验得到的由冬季风异常所产生的海洋及夏季环流的变化与实况是相当接近的.在异常的冬季风偏北风分量强迫下, 西太平洋上形成的偏差气旋环流在夏季已不存在, 这时东亚夏季风反而增强.而冬季赤道西风分量所产生的影响, 则在西太平洋上形成显著的偏差气旋环流, 使东亚副热带夏季风减弱, 南海夏季风加强.对于东亚大气环流而言, 与强弱冬季风对应的热带海洋海温异常强迫下, 不仅是冬季, 后期春季和夏季环流的特征都能得到很好的模拟.但是从分区看, 西太平洋暖池区的海温异常比东太平洋更为重要.单纯的热带中东太平洋的海温异常对东亚大气环流的影响主要表现在冬季, 对后期的影响并不十分清楚.整个热带海洋的异常型分布(不论是El Nio还是La Nia)型, 对冬夏季风的影响是重要的, 而单纯的某个地区的海温异常都比它的整体影响要小.从试验结果看, 海温在大尺度冬夏季环流的隔季相关中起了十分重要的作用.     

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC) is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation. This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying mechanisms.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method, the leading mode(EOF1, R~2 = 28.9%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China; the second mode(EOF2, R~2 = 24.3%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China. EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT) branches over northeastern China and eastern China, which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS) area in the preceding October-November(ON). EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China, which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC, and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.     

Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle

Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.     

亚澳季风异常与ENSO准四年变化的联系分析

分析了赤道地区纬向风的年际变化特征，以及亚澳季风与ENSO在各个位相的联系。结果表明：赤道纬向风变化与中东太平洋海温变化在准四年周期上是强烈耦合的；在El Eino期间东亚冬季风弱，夏季风强，而南亚夏季风弱，反之，在La Nina期间东亚冬季风强，夏季风弱，而南亚夏季风强；东亚地区的异常北风有利于西太平洋西风异常爆发，使得东太平洋海温升高，但只有随后在中东太平洋出现持续性西风异常，El Nino才能发展，其中来自太平洋中部的异常北风（并不是来自东亚大陆地区）和南太平洋中部的异常南风的辐合对中东太平洋出现持续性西风异常起重要的作用，尤其是澳大利亚东北部的季风异常的影响更为显。     

CMIP5模式对春季北极涛动影响后期冬季ENSO不对称性的模拟能力分析

根据观测资料的研究指出春季北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)对随后冬季厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino–Southern Oscillation, ENSO)的影响具有明显不对称性。春季AO处于正位相时,它对随后冬季厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的影响显著,然而春季AO负位相对随后冬季拉尼娜(La Nina)的影响不明显。本研究分析了30个来自CMIP5的耦合模式对春季AO与随后冬季ENSO不对称性关系的模拟能力。30个CMIP5耦合模式中,只有CNRM-CM5和GISS-E2-H-CC模式能较好地抓住春季AO与冬季ENSO的联系。进一步分析这两个模式中春季AO与冬季ENSO的不对称性关系,发现CNRM-CM5模式能较好地再现春季AO与冬季ENSO的非对称关系,即春季AO正(负)位相会导致赤道中东太平洋出现El Nino(La Nina)型海表温度增暖(冷却)。然而,GISS-E2-H-CC模式的模拟结果显示,春季AO对随后冬季ENSO的影响是对称的。本文随后解释了CNRM-CM5(GISS-E2-H-CC)模式能(不能)模拟出春季AO与冬季ENSO不对称关系的原因。对于CNRMCM5模式,在春季AO正位相年,副热带西北太平洋上空存在明显的异常气旋和正降水异常,正降水异常通过Gill型大气响应对赤道西太平洋异常西风的形成和维持起着重要作用,异常西风通过激发向东传播的暖赤道Kelvin波对随后冬季El Nino事件的发生产生显著的影响;然而,在春季AO负位相年,副热带北太平洋的异常反气旋和负降水异常较弱,导致赤道西太平洋的异常东风不明显,因此,春季AO负异常对随后冬季La Nina的影响不显著。所以,CNRM-CM5模式能够较好地抓住春季AO对随后冬季ENSO事件的非对称性影响。相比之下,对于GISS-E2-H-CC模式,春季AO正(负)位相年副热带西北太平洋上存在显著的正(负)降水异常,通过Gill型大气响应在赤道西太平洋激发出明显的异常西(东)风从而影响随后冬季的El Nino(La Nina)事件。因此,在GISS-E2-H-CC模式中,春季AO对随后冬季ENSO具有对称性影响。另外,模式捕捉春季AO对随后冬季ENSO非对称性影响的能力与模式对春季AO空间结构的模拟能力有一定的联系。     

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Transport and Balance in the AGCM-SAMIL

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the spectral atmospheric general circulation Model (AGCM) of IAP/LASG (SAMIL) are employed to investigate the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). It is demonstrated that SAMIL depicts the general features of the AAM transport and balance reasonably well. The AAM sources are in the tropics and sinks are in the mid-latitudes. The strongest meridional transport occurs in the upper troposphere. The atmosphere gains westerly momentum and transports it upward in the areas of surface easterlies, and downward into the areas of surface westerlies. Consequently, AAM balance is maintained. Systematic biases of the model compared to the reanalysis and observations are revealed. Possible mechanisms for these biases are investigated. In SAMIL, the friction torque in the tropics is stronger compared to the observations, which is probably due to the excessive precipitation along the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the model, since the simulated Hadley circulation is much stronger than observed. In the winter half of the year, the transport center is in the lower troposphere in the SAMIL model, but it is in the upper troposphere in the reanalysis and observations. These discrepancies also suggest that simulations of convection and tropical precipitation need to be improved and that higher resolution is necessary for a quantitative simulation of AAM transport and balance. Results also demonstrate that the analysis of the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum is a powerful tool in diagnosing climate models for potential improvement.     

夏季逐月东亚高空西风急流经向偏移与热带中、东太平洋海温的关联

Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months. This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer. The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years, while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer. The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer). The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere, which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June. The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific, however, may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.     

Impact of Indian monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean system in the tropical pacific

Summary This study addresses the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the coupled atmosphere/ocean system in the tropical Pacific on the interannual time scales. High positive correlations are found between ISM rainfall and both mixed layer sea water temperature (SWT) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the tropical western Pacific in the following winter. Negative correlations between ISM rainfall and SST in the central/eastern Pacific also appear to be most significant in the following winter. These parameters are correlated with each other mainly on a biennial time scale. Lag-correlations between the zonal wind and SST along the the equatorial Pacific show that the westerly (easterly) surface wind stress anomalies over the central/western Pacific are greatly responsible for the formation of negative (positive) SST/SWT anomalies in the western Pacific and positive (negative) SST/SWT anomalies in the central/eastern Pacific. Furthermore, it is evidenced that these lagcorrelations are physically based on the anomalies in the large-scale convection over the Asian monsoon region and the associated east-west circulation over the tropical Pacific, which first appear during the Indian summer monsoon season and evolve during the following autumn and winter. These results strongly suggest that the Asian summer monsoon may have an active, rather than a passive, role on the interannual variability, including the ENSO events, of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system over the tropical Pacific.With 9 Figures     

盛夏两类东亚高空西风急流北跳的动力过程

在气候态上,7月底东亚高空西风急流中心突然从40°N北跳到45°N以北.逐年统计分析显示此次急流北跳存在两类典型方式:急流北侧西风强度增强引起的北跳(第一类)和急流中心西风强度的减弱引起的北跳(第二类).本文基于1958年到2002年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用波活动通量诊断这两类典型北跳相应的动力过程,进一步...     

ENSO phase-locking to the boreal winter in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

In this study, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking to the boreal winter in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models is examined. It is found that the models that are poor at simulating the winter ENSO peak tend to simulate colder seasonal-mean sea-surface temperature (SST) during the boreal summer and associated shallower thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific. These models tend to amplify zonal advection and thermocline depth feedback during boreal summer. In addition, the colder eastern Pacific SST in the model can reduce the summertime mean local convective activity, which tends to weaken the atmospheric response to the ENSO SST forcing. It is also revealed that these models have more serious climatological biases over the tropical Pacific, implying that a realistic simulation of the climatological fields may help to simulate winter ENSO peak better. The models that are poor at simulating ENSO peak in winter also show excessive anomalous SST warming over the western Pacific during boreal winter of the El Nino events, which leads to strong local convective anomalies. This prevents the southward shift of El Nino-related westerly during boreal winter season. Therefore, equatorial westerly is prevailed over the western Pacific to further development of ENSO-related SST during boreal winter. This bias in the SST anomaly is partly due to the climatological dry biases over the central Pacific, which confines ENSO-related precipitation and westerly responses over the western Pacific.     

The activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves in CMIP3 global climate models

This study evaluates the convectively coupled equatorial waves in ten coupled general circulation models (GCMs) in the twentieth century experiment from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme. The antisymmetric bands in all GCMs are weaker than in observations, and the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave seems to be a mixture of the equatorial Rossby (ER) and tropical depression-type (TD-type) waves rather than a mixture of the ER and inertiogravity waves found in observations. The simulated TD-type wave is more organized than in observations with a quasilinear wavenumber–frequency relationship. In most GCMs, the two observed activity centers of the MRG and TD-type waves over the southern Indian Ocean and the southwestern Pacific cannot be separated; only one wave activity center is found over the Maritime Continent. The observed northwestward propagation of the TD-type wave over the western North Pacific is also not well simulated in the GCMs. The simulated active season of the MRG and TD-type waves over the northern hemisphere during the boreal summer and fall is much shorter than in observations. The models from CCSR utilizing the Pan and Randall scheme with the convection suppression simulate the realistic Kelvin wave activity with the maximum activity near the equator, while the wave activities filtered for the Kelvin wave in the other GCMs are similar to the extratropical Rossby wave with the maximum activity at higher latitudes. Likewise, only these two models produce a realistic seasonal cycle of the Kelvin wave activity.     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

大气能量传播及不同纬度间大气相互作用的研究进展

早期的理论分析认为大气中临界纬度的存在使得热带-热带外的大气活动互不影响。然而,大量的观测事实表明中低纬度大气运动存在着明显的动力联系。为了帮助人们更好地理解大气中的遥相关现象,在大量文献的基础上,综述了几种波能量传播理论:(1) 大圆理论指出了罗斯贝波在球形大气中的传播特征;(2) 西风通道理论发现了中纬度瞬变扰动越赤道传播的“走廊”;(3) 能量堆积-波列发射理论揭示了热带扰动影响到更高纬度大气活动的可能过程;(4) 赤道波侧向膨胀理论则利用转折纬度的概念更进一步解释了这种中低纬度大气相互作用的物理机制;(5) 经向基本流理论则认为在一定的条件下定常波可以穿过热带东风带传播到另一半球。此外,文中还回顾了在波-流相互作用诊断方面的研究进展,尤其是关于罗斯贝波、惯性重力波和赤道开尔文波。大气能量的经向传播具有显著的年变化和年际变化,这与ENSO、西风急流、大洋中部槽等的变化密切相关。     

东亚季风区冬季经向风的季节内变化及其可能机理

利用1979—2013年ERA-interim再分析资料,通过均方差分析、功率谱分析、带通滤波及合成分析等统计方法系统地分析了东亚季风区冬季经向风的季节内变化及其可能机理。结果表明,东亚季风区冬季经向风异常在我国华南一带变化显著,振荡周期为10~20 d(准双周振荡)。在准双周尺度上,水平方向上,850 h Pa异常北风主要呈现从高纬向低纬传播的特点,60°N附近异常经向风向东南方向传播,副热带30°N附近弱的异常经向风向东传播,二者在华南汇合,随后分为两支中心,分别向南和向东继续传播,我国华南一带存在基本气流向准双周尺度波动的能量转换,因此异常经向风在华南会显著增强;垂直方向上,对流层上层、中层、下层的经向风呈现强—弱—强的异常中心特征,对流层下层850 h Pa和上层200~300 h Pa均存在经向风大值中心;我国东部上空300 h Pa上,副热带地区波动比850 h Pa更明显,60°N附近波动向东南方向移动,同样在我国东部地区合并,波动辐合导致波动能量增强。