海平面上升的灾害效应研究--以江苏沿海低地为例

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,其灾害效应直接影响沿海地区社会经济的持续发展。文章运用地面沉降与绝对海面变化叠加法和潮位记录法,预测未来30年,50年和100年江苏沿海海平面将分别上升0.30 m,0.53 m和1.37 m。在此基础上,对不同海平面上升量引起的风暴潮灾害、海岸侵蚀、潮滩盐沼损失、涵闸破坏、洪涝灾害加剧和海堤工程受损等方面的灾害效应进行了定量分析,并对江苏沿海低地进行分区灾害预警,认为海平面上升后的灾害效应在江苏中部海积平原表现得最为严重,废黄河三角洲平原和长江三角洲平原中等,而海州湾海积平原最轻。     

东西伯利亚海海冰季节变化特征及主要影响因素分析

利用1997-2005年美国国家冰雪中心提供的卫星遥感数据,对东西伯利亚海海冰周年变化特征及其动力和热力学机制进行详细分析,以1999年海冰状况为例讨论了该海域海冰的周年变化。按照海冰变化的区域特征和融化机制差异,将全年的海冰变化过程分为密集冰封期、陆坡开裂期、西部融化期、全面融化期和秋季结冰期。不同年份各个阶段发生的具体日期不尽相同,海冰覆盖面积最小值及其发生时间有所差异,但是,各年海冰变化的5个阶段都清晰可辨。海冰融化时间持续3个月,冻结时间仅为1个半月左右。每年5月份东西伯利亚海陆坡处海冰发生开裂,主要是该时期风场辐散的作用。1999年,除5月份以外的其他月份,东西伯利亚海海表面风场是辐聚风场,不利于海冰融化和开阔水域面积的扩大。东西伯利亚海海冰融化的决定性因素是陆地径流,因迪吉尔卡河、科雷马河、亚纳河和勒拿河四条河流在海冰融化过程中发挥主要作用。海冰覆盖面积最小值出现的时间一般是9月下旬,整个海域的沿岸带海冰全部消失,形成大范围的开阔水。夏季北半球气温的升高和太阳辐射的加热作用,为海冰融化提供持续的热量。     

辽宁沿海地区风能资源状况及开发潜力初步分析

主要采用风电场的实测风资料,初步分析了辽宁沿海地区的风能资源特征及开发潜力。结果表明:辽宁沿海岸一带为风能资源丰富区和较丰富区,辽东湾沿岸风资源较黄海北部沿岸更为优越,风资源条件上具有更大的开发潜力;海岸到内陆风速迅速减少,离海岸稍远的陆上以辽东半岛顶部和辽河平原地区风速较大;沿岸50m高处风能资源较10m高处多1倍以上,年有效风力时数超过70%,表明辽宁沿海地区具有大规模开发利用风能资源的潜力,适合建大型风电场,且风电场离海岸越近越好。     

Long-term sea level changes along the lagoon shores of the Baltic and Black Seas

We examine the data on the mean annual sea level dynamics for 1875–2005 along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea (Baltiisk and Kronstadt) and along the northern coast of the Black Sea (Odessa, Sevastopol’ and Kerch) which have coastal lagoons. The study revealed a generally positive trend for the period (from 0.7 to 1.8 mm/year at different points), a similarity of changes in the level for separate 30-year-long intervals, and a significant increase in sea level growth rate at the turn of the 20^th century (up to 8.6–13.3 mm/year at different points). High values of the correlation coefficient (0.71–0.87) were recorded between the variations in the mean yearly level (with the temporal trend excluded) within the lagoon coasts of the Baltic and Black Seas as well as the absence of a correlation between data series for the two seas. Analysis (after excluding a linear trend from the variation of the values) showed an actual absence of a correlation between mean yearly level variations and North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices, while the previously recorded correlation was due to a correlation between trend components. It is suggested that the sea level oscillations include only a small component which responds oppositely for the two seas to the resultant influence of the eastward and westward components of the atmospheric circulation. On the basis of the similar absolute values of the linear trend and of the range of long-term fluctuations in mean yearly sea level values in the area of the lagoon coasts of the Baltic and Black Seas, the conclusion is drawn about the similar conditions under which over the course of the last 100 years the coastal lagoons have been evolving in these two, relatively remote, zones of the drainage basin of the Atlantic Ocean.     

North Atlantic sea-level and circulation

Summary. Monthly sea-levels from an extensive array of North Atlantic tide gauges (26-50N) are examined. The spatial scale of the sea-level variations, and the reasons for them, are discussed; one application of such a study is clearly in the design of a tide gauge network for monitoring eustatic changes of sea-level.
The spatial scale of the sea-level changes is large. There is a coherent sea-level signal which can be traced along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic from Newlyn (50N) to Tenerife (28N). There are also two distinct groupings of tide gauges along the western boundary, separated by Cape Hatteras.
The contribution of local air pressure and wind stress is quantified at each gauge through multiple regression techniques and the gains are then interpreted in terms of recent theoretical and numerical modelling studies. For example, the gains suggest that the wind-forced boundary current along the Nova Scotian shelf is trapped to within about 16 km of the coast.
The influence of local meteorology cannot account for the large-scale modes of variability. The coherent signal along the eastern boundary is correlated with changes in the Sverdrup transport of the North Atlantic and hence the large-scale wind field. The two modes on the western boundary appear to be related to baroclinic boundary current variations.
The Newlyn sea-level record is finally 'corrected' for some of the above effects to illustrate the utility of such a residual series in the identification of eustatic changes and vertical crustal movement.     

近百年来长江口启东嘴潮滩沉积物质来源及定量估算

河流入海输沙是海岸稳定的重要物质基础。启东嘴潮滩位于长江北支口门,与江苏海岸线交汇,陆海相互作用强烈。利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪测定了岩芯沉积物QDZ-1的地球化学元素。根据地球化学元素的分布特征和富集系数,分析了物源指示意义,表明启东嘴潮滩沉积物受到长江物质和南黄海物质的共同影响。基于地球化学元素的沉积物端元定量判识方法,对不同物质来源的贡献率进行了定量估算。在1930年前启东嘴潮滩沉积物主要来自长江的入海输沙,贡献率为68.1%,随着长江北支河槽的衰退,贡献率逐渐减少,在1930-1972年间为38.5%,到1972年后减少到17.5%。苏北沿岸流携带向南输运的南黄海物质,贡献率逐渐增加,在1930年前为27.1%,在1930-1972年间为55.6%,到1972年后增加到75.9%,成为启东嘴潮滩主要物质来源。沉积物来源的阶段性变化,在时间上与北支水动力的阶段性变化基本吻合。     

1960―2013 年华南沿海海洋站SST 变化及其影响因子

根据 1960―2013 年华南沿海 7 个海洋站的实测海表温度（SST）及全球平均表面温度、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）、ENSO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面风速等资料,采用线性回归、Yamamoto 突变检验、小波分析、相关分析等方法,研究了近 54 a 华南沿海 SST 时空变化及其影响因子,结果表明：1）近 54 a 华南沿海的年平均 SST呈准同步变化和显著增暖趋势,其气候倾向率为 0.08~0.17℃/10 a,平均为 0.12℃/10 a,以冬季增暖最为显著;2）SST 变化在 1997/1998 年出现突变现象;3）SST 变化有多时空尺度的变化特征,其中最显著的变化周期是 2~4 a的年际变化;4）SST 变化深受 ENSO 事件的影响,约滞后于 MEI 指数 2~4 个月;5）影响 SST 变化趋势的主要因子有全球气候变暖、PDO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面层风速等。     

A study of the climatic system in the Barents Sea

The climatic conditions in the Barents Sea are mainly determined by the influx of Atlantic Water. A homogeneous wind-driven numerical current model was used to calculate the fluctuations in the volume flux of Atlantic Water to the Barents Sea which are caused by local wind forcing. The study period is from 1970 to 86. When compared with observed variations in temperature, ice coverage, and air pressure, the results show remarkably good agreement between all three parameters. The climate system of the Barents Sea is discussed with emphasis on the interrelations and feedback mechanisms between air, sea, and ice.     

On the application of asymptotic analysis to the dynamical theory of the pole tide

Summary. This article examines the effects of boundaries on the pole tide in an ocean of constant depth. The cyclically continuous global ocean solutions to Laplace's tidal equations with the pole tide forcing are used as the particular solutions to the problem. The approach here is to find approximate asymptotic solutions to the homogeneous tidal equations which can be added to the global particular solutions so that the normal component of velocity will vanish at the boundary. At the very long period of the pole tide, the unforced motions are assumed to be non-divergent, and so only the homogeneous vorticity equation must be solved.
The first case considered is a zonal ocean bounded by parallels of latitude equidistant from the equator. Asymptotic solutions are found in order to satisfy the zonal boundary condition, and this gives rise to a narrow zonal boundary current. The contribution of these solutions is exponentially small compared to the forced global pole tide except in the immediate vicinity of the northern and southern boundaries.
Next, the effect of meridional boundaries is considered. When a linear form of bottom friction is assumed, two approximate homogeneous solutions are found to construct a general solution that satisfies the meridional boundary conditions. One solution decays exponentially in longitude and gives rise to a western boundary current, while the other solution is independent of longitude. The meridional boundary conditions are used to match the homogeneous and particular solutions, and so the solution for the interior of the ocean satisfies the eastern boundary condition. The resulting solution for the pole tide has a western boundary current term, while over the majority of the ocean domain the solution has a term varying with the wavelength of the forcing (the global solution) and a zonal motion term used to satisfy the eastern boundary condition. Comparisons are made with the wind-driven ocean circulation problem.     

Coastal Precipitation Regimes in Kenya

Kenya is under the influence of the seasonal reversal of the Indian ocean monsoons. However, its coastal belt, up to about 50 km inland, exhibits original climatic features. Hierarchical clustering of mean monthly rainfall for a large number of stations, particularly in the south-eastern region, strongly differentiate a maritime climate characterised by enhanced and delayed "long rains" and no dry season in the northern summer. Most of these rains fall at night or in the morning. Using daily rainfall data and twice-daily surface and upper-air wind observations, monsoon-breeze interactions and their role on April–August coastal precipitation are assessed. Rain spells common to the whole Kenya coast are associated to a slight weakening of the sea breeze, a strong easterly or south-easterly wind anomaly over most of Kenya at around 850–700 hPa, and sea surface temperatures greater than air temperatures.     

Modelling the pole tide and its effect on the Earth's rotation

Summary. The pole tide is the response of the ocean to incremental centrifugal forces associated with the Chandler wobble. The tide has a potentially important effect on the period and damping of the wobble, but it is at present not well constrained by observations. Here, we construct both analytical and numerical models for the pole tide. The analytical models consider the tide first in a global ocean and then in an enclosed basin on a beta-plane. The results are found to approach equilibrium linearly with decreasing frequency and inversely with increasing basin depth. The numerical models solve Laplace's tidal equations over the world's oceans using realistic continental boundaries and bottom topography. The results indicate that the effects of the non-equilibrium portion of the deep ocean tide on the Chandler wobble period and damping are negligible.     

基于验潮数据的西北太平洋区域海面变化预测

区域海面变化研究受到验潮站数据时段不一致、空间分布不均匀及影响要素复杂性和不确定性等因素制约。本文基于西北太平洋海域22 个站位的验潮数据,应用RegEM及MTM方法探讨其多尺度波动过程的时空差异,基于空间邻近性及有序聚类方法,将区域海面变化划分为5个区段(渤海-黄海北部沿岸、黄-东海中国沿岸、东海海域日本沿岸、东海南部沿岸以及南海西北部沿岸),进而利用MGF方法对各站位进行中长期的统计预测,并结合主成分方法进行区域综合。结果显示各区2001-2030 年的海面变化平均速率分别为：1.23~1.27 mm/a,3.30~3.34 mm/a,2.72~2.76 mm/a,1.43~1.47 mm/a和1.13~1.15 mm/a,而区域海面上升速率为2.01~2.11 mm/a。     

New aspects of the equilibrium pole tide

Summary. We have developed a new spherical harmonic algorithm for the calculation of the loading and self-gravitating equilibrium pole tide. Based on a suggestion of Dahlen, this approach minimizes the distortions in tide height caused by an incomplete representation of the ocean function. With slight modification our approach easily could be used to compute self-gravitating and loading luni-solar tides as well.
Using our algorithm we have compared the static pole tide with tide observations at a variety of locations around the world. We find statistically significant evidence for pole tide enhancements in mid-ocean as well as the shallow seas.
We have also re-investigated the effect of the static tide on the Chandler wobble period. The difference between the wobble period of an oceanless, elastic earth with a fluid core (Smith & Dahlen) and the period of an earth minus static oceans yields a 7.4-day discrepancy. We conclude from tide observations that much of the discrepancy can probably be accounted for by non-equilibrium pole tide behaviour in the deep oceans.     

近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势

为预估本世纪末广东海平面的可能上升量,从探讨近百年来广东海平面上升率的阶段性变化入手,通过对广东沿海验潮站潮位观测资料的统计分析,得出广东沿海海平面近86年(1925-2010年)、近40年(1970-2010年)和近20年(1993-2010年)的上升率分别为2.1 mm/a、2.5 mm/a和3.2 mm/a,存在加速上升的趋势,并与全球大体呈准同步变化.20世纪90年代以来,广东沿海海平面上升和热带西太平洋的海平面出现突变上升有密切关系.     

西北太平洋及其在东亚气候上的问题

作者前在「海水温度与水旱问题」(注一)一文中,曾以东亚海水表面温度为根据,研讨我国长江中下游流域或其南部的旱潦关系。发现太平洋西北隅的水温,对日本和长江流域中下游的旱潦问题有相当关系。本文拟讨论上述海区中的海洋     

北极拉普捷夫海海冰多年变化研究

拉普捷夫海是北冰洋的边缘海和冰源地,对北冰洋的海冰变化有重要影响。通过分析AMSR-E海冰密集度数据以及NECP-DOE的风场、温度场数据,结果表明拉普捷夫海海冰在2002—2011年经历了如下过程：重冰年(2002—2004)—过渡性质年份(2005—2006) —轻冰年(2007、2009—2011),即冰情由重向轻转变。研究结果也表明拉普捷夫海的冰情轻重与融冰期长短有较好的相关性,融冰期持续时间越短,冰情越重。4个参数,包括海冰距平指数、最小海冰覆盖率、积温、风驱动指数描述了拉普捷夫海的海冰多年变化过程。海冰距平指数是时间（3—11月）平均下的海冰覆盖率距平值,定量给出了各年冰情的轻重;最小海冰覆盖率是夏季海冰的极限情况,变化范围在0.45%—48.73%,发生时间为8月底至10月上旬。积温是上一个冬季气温积累对当年冰情的影响,结果表明积温是影响当年冰情轻重的主要因素。2008年的上一个冬季经历了异常低温,造成当年的异常重冰年。风驱动指数给出了风场对海冰覆盖率变化的短期影响,与同时期其他年份相比,2006年4月、2007年9月均出现了异常强北风,一定程度上造成了2006年融冰开始时间延后、2007年夏季最小海冰覆盖率的明显偏大。     

ENSO循环过程对南极海冰的影响

应用 1 951- 2 0 0 2年NINO特征指数 (NINO1 +2 ,NINO3 ,NINO4 ,NINO3 .4)和 1 973-1 998年南极海冰北界范围以及 1 950- 2 0 0 1年SODA海洋温度资料。首先分析探讨了在ElNi no期间 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的异常暖水在南半球的传播途径 ,进而研究了ENSO以及东南太平洋异常海温场与南极海冰之间的关系。结果表明 ,在ElNino期间 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的异常暖水 ,是沿秘鲁和智利沿岸向极传播。其传播过程持续大约 1年的时间 ,但未发现沿南赤道流的西传现象。ENSO循环过程与南极海冰变化存在一定联系 ,特别是Amundsen Belling shausen海和南极半岛海冰的变化与ENSO暖事件 (ElNino)较为密切。当ElNino事件发生后 ,时滞 2年左右的时间 ,Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛的海冰将出现明显的减少现象 ,特别是南极半岛的海冰减少最为明显。ElNino事件对南极海冰的影响过程是 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的大量异常暖水 ,沿南美 (秘鲁和智利 )沿岸近海向极地传播 ,异常暖水的这种向极传播过程将引起近极的海温场出现异常升高 ,最终导致Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛地区的海冰减少。自 2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛的海冰出现明显减少的趋势 ,与这一时期的ElNino事件的频繁发生     

Variability of the ice export through Fram Strait in 1993–98: the winter 1994/95 anomaly

The origin of the large positive anomaly of the Fram Strait sea ice export which occurred in winter 1994/95 is analysed on the basis of a model simulation of the Arctic sea ice cover over the period 1993-98. The overall intra-annual and interannual variability in the model is in good agreement with observational estimates and the 1994/95 anomaly is well reproduced with an amplitude amounting to half of the mean winter value. Model results suggest that, concomitant to anomalous export velocities, larger than usual ice thickness in the strait contributes to the outstanding amplitude of the anomaly. Analysis on the ice thickness evolution in the strait indicates that the thick ice advected in Fram Strait at the end of the fall of 1994 originates in the anomalous cyclonic wind stress which prevailed during the preceding summer. This anomalous wind stress resulted in persistent convergence of the ice flow against the northern coasts of Canada and Greenland and in the formation of a large thickness anomaly north of Greenland. The anomaly then feeds the Fram Strait ice flow during those following winter months when the local wind forcing in the strait favours ice drift from the north-west. Our results suggest that short-term wind stress variations resulting in local thickness changes to the north of Fram Strait can lead to substantial variability of the Fram Strait ice export.     

1979—2015 年罗斯海海冰运动速度变化

基于美国冰雪数据中心的月平均海冰运动和海冰密集度数据, 建立了1979—2015 年罗斯海海冰运动 速度时间变化序列, 揭示了海冰运动速度的年际和季节变化特征, 探讨了海冰运动速度和海冰范围之间可 能存在的联系, 最后对影响海冰运动速度变化的因素进行了分析。结果表明, 1979—2015 年罗斯海海冰运动 速度总体呈现加快趋势, 海冰运动速度增加趋势最快的季节为秋季, 其次是冬季、春季和夏季。冬季海冰平 均运动速度最大, 依次是秋季、春季和夏季。海冰运动速度与海冰范围在37 年间均呈现上升趋势, 海冰范 围变化滞后海冰运动速度1—2 个月, 两者呈显著正相关关系, 海冰运动速度的增加导致罗斯海海冰范围不 断扩张, 进而影响南极整体海冰分布。罗斯海海冰运动速度与风速之间存在显著正相关关系, 风场是影响海 冰运动速度的一个直接因素。除此之外, 海冰运动还受到包括气压场、洋流场以及海洋阻力系数等的影响。