1992年大气甲烷增长速率异常 下降的模拟研究

应用初步建立的全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了甲烷、一氧化碳和OH自由基自工业革命以来的长期变化,对1992年大气中甲烷增长速率突然下降这一异常现象的可能原因如平流层O3下降,皮纳图博火山引起对流层温度下降、甲烷排放源减少等逐一进行了定量研究。研究还发现一氧化碳排放源的减少是另一重要影响因子,并进行了验证。结果表明,1992年甲烷增长速率急剧下降的主要原因来自甲烷和一氧化碳排放源的减少。     

我国甲烷排放情景分析:IPAC模型结果

近期发布的IPCC第六次评估报告再次强调了短寿命期温室气体减排对温升减缓的作用。甲烷是最重要的短寿命期非CO₂温室气体。在各国提出各自新的减排目标之后,针对甲烷减排的行动方案也越来越多。甲烷减排正在成为下一阶段各国和全球合作的重点领域之一。本文在我国碳减排目标下的能源转型基础上,结合其他非能源活动的减排排放源的减排技术选择基础上,利用IPAC模型对未来甲烷的排放情景进行了分析。在模型设定的两个情景分析基础之上,研究发现,到2050年的能源转型可明显减少能源活动的甲烷排放,和2015年相比能源活动的排放可减少67％。和其他行业相比,能源部门的甲烷减排具有更好的协同性。如果考虑进一步减排甲烷,则需要在考虑其他大气污染物减排的基础上,可通过实现天然气的进一步减排来实现。同时其他部门的甲烷减排也具有很大潜力,低甲烷排放情景可以实现到2050年将甲烷排放减少到1 494万吨,和2015年相比全范围排放可减排58％。     

大气甲烷浓度长期变化及未来趋势

应用初步建立的全球二维大气化学模式,对工业革命以来甲烷的长期变化进行了模拟研究。模式将CH4、CO和NOx排放源方案进行了参数化。在考虑了CH4排放源以及对OH浓度有重要影响的CO和NOx排放源的长期变化的基础上,模拟了CH4和OH浓度自1840年到20世纪90年代的长期变化趋势。结果表明,工业革命前的大气甲烷体积分数和年排放总量分别为760×10-9和280Tg,1991年大气甲烷的体积分数和年排放总量分别为1611.9×10-9和533.9Tg。而对流层中OH的数密度则由1840年的7.17×105cm-3变化到1991年的5.79×105cm-3,下降了19%。如果CH4、CO及NOx这三种排放源继续按给定的方案增长,那么到2020年大气甲烷的体积分数和年排放总量将增加为2090.7×10-9和966.2Tg,而OH的数密度将为5.47×105cm-3,比1840年降低24%。     

中国二氧化碳排放源现状分析

通过对20世纪90年代中国几个主要温室气体研究项目中关于二氧化碳(CO2)排放源研究结果的综合分析,结合最新资料,对1990年的中国CO2排放源进行了收集和完善,对1994年中国CO2排放源重新做了计算.其中,工业生产过程的CO2排放,在以前的研究中仅仅计算了水泥一项,本研究中我们增加了石灰、钢铁、电解铝三项,力求使结果更接近实际情况.结果表明,1990年和1994年中国CO2矿物燃料燃烧和工业过程总排放分别为2218.9×106t(合605.1×106t碳)和2787.8×106t(合760.3×106t碳),分别占当年全球CO2总排放的10.2%和12.7%.能源和工业生产活动的CO2排放均有不同程度的增长.矿物燃料燃烧是中国CO2的最大排放源,占总排放的90%以上.对CO2排放源的不确定性分析表明,中国CO2排放存在大于10%的减排潜力.     

η坐标有限区域数值预报模式的实时预报试验

给出了η坐标有限区域数值模式对１９９８ 年汛期降水的实时预报试验结果,表明利用 Ｔ１０６ 资料作初值,模式对湖南汛期降水有相当的预报能力。在６ 月中、下旬和７月下旬的主汛期预报中,雨区范围（２４ 小时降水大于１ｍ ｍ ）预报的 Ｔ Ｓ值为５６４％ ;２４ 小时降水大于１０ｍ ｍ 、２５ｍ ｍ 和５０ｍ ｍ 的 Ｔ Ｓ值分别为３３９％ 、２１６％ 和１０６％ ,优于 Ｈ Ｌ Ａ Ｆ Ｓ和 Ｔ１０６ 的预报结果,其中降水大于２５ｍ ｍ 的 Ｔ Ｓ值要比 Ｈ Ｌ Ａ Ｆ Ｓ的提高１３１％ 。     

中国城市固体废弃物甲烷排放研究

甲烷（CH4）所引起的温室效应仅次于CO2,固体废弃物填埋处理所产生的CH4作为总的人为温室气体排放源的一部分,估算其排放量对于计算大气中整个温室气体增加所引起的气候效应具有重要的作用和意义。在以往研究的基础上,通过对典型城市生活垃圾的采样分析,确定了最近几年中国城市固体废弃物（MSW）中可降解有机碳（DOC）的含量,并根据IPCC计算CH4排放量的方法以及全国不同区域废弃物管理程度状况,估算得到CH4排放量在全国范围内从东部到西部逐渐减少,且在1994-2004年排放量逐年增加。     

农田生态系统温室气体排放研究进展

自1985年起,中国科学院大气物理研究所利用自行设计制造的自动观测仪器系统,历时十六年先后对我国四大类主要水稻产区的甲烷排放规律及其与土壤、气象条件和农业管理措施的关系进行了系统野外观测实验,并对稻田甲烷产生、转化和输送机理进行了理论研究,探讨了控制稻田甲烷排放的实用措施,建立了估算和预测稻田甲烷排放的数值模型.在甲烷排放的时空变化规律和转化率研究方面有一系列新的发现,在稻田甲烷产生率、排放率及其与环境条件的关系方面取得一系列新的成果,以充分证据改变了国际上关于全球和中国稻田甲烷排放总量的估算.在对稻田甲     

江西省冬水田休闲期甲烷排放研究

利用85个气象站的观测资料和14个农业气象观测站水稻生育期资料,以及第二次土壤普查数据,基于气温与冬水田休闲期甲烷排放通量的指数关系模型,分析了江西省2000—2013年冬水田休闲期甲烷排放因子和排放量的时空分布特征。结果表明:1)江西省冬水田甲烷排放因子无显著的上升趋势;2)江西省冬水田休闲期甲烷排放平均通量为7.66 mg/(m2·h),平均年排放因子为406.5 kg/hm2,其中2007年排放通量为1.214×105 t,占稻田甲烷排放的12.4%;3)吉安、赣州、抚州、上饶和宜春市是江西省冬水田休闲期甲烷排放的主要地区,累计约占全省排放量的75.0%;4)各设区市冬水田休闲期甲烷排放量主要决定于各地水田面积的大小,赣州市除外。     

Monte Carlo多源模式在广东核电站大气环境评价中的应用

发展了ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ多源模式并用于模拟广东核电站排放的放射性污染物浓度分布和干湿沉积量。数值实验和六氟化硫（ＳＦ６）示踪实验表明,模式能很好地反映复杂地形和生态下垫面对污染物的输送、扩散和干湿沉积的影响;与观测值相比,浓度计算值的准确率大于等于５０％的概率为５８４％。     

填埋场甲烷排放因素分析及甲烷减排研究进展

垃圾填埋场甲烷排放是全球人为温室气体排放的重要来源,对于整个大气中温室气体增加引起的气候效应的影响不容忽视,是世界各国现代化进程中迫切需要解决的一个严重的社会公害问题.文章从填埋场甲烷产生的相关因素、垃圾处理现状和填埋场甲烷减排技术等方面对国内外研究现状做了总结.甲烷的产生受填埋场中的垃圾特性、含水率、温度、pH值、填埋时间、渗滤液含量和其他因素影响.当前的填埋场减排技术包括原位减排、资源化利用和末端控制等,填埋场可以从多方面共同作用实现减排目标.     

中国稻田甲烷产生和排放研究 Ⅱ.模式研究和减排措施

主要介绍了近 2 0年来稻田甲烷排放的模式研究和排放量的估算以及减少稻田甲烷排放的措施。数值模式是估算稻田甲烷排放量的一条有效途径 ,模式的研究现在正处于发展阶段。介绍了几个主要的模型 ,既有物理过程模型也有经验模型。年排放量的估算范围为 6 79～ 4 1 4Tg ,随着技术的发展和大量实验的进行估算值的精度正得到不断的提高。减排措施是减少稻田甲烷排放的必要手段 ,但是目前的减排技术均处于研究阶段 ,应用还不成熟     

Greenhouse gas emissions from Indian livestock

Livestock constitutes an integral component of Indian agriculture sector and also a major source of GHGs emissions. The study presents a detailed inventory of GHG emissions at district/state level from different age-groups, indigenous and exotic breed of different Indian livestock categories estimated using the recent census 2003 and country-specific emission coefficients based on IPCC guidelines. The total methane emission including enteric fermentation and manure management of livestock was estimated at 11.75 Tg/year for the year 2003. Enteric fermentation constitutes ~91 % of the total methane emissions from Indian livestock. Dairy buffalo and indigenous dairy cattle together contribute 60 % of the methane emissions. The total nitrous oxide emission from Indian livestock for the year 2003 is estimated at 1.42 Gg/year, with 86.1 % contribution from poultry. The total GHGs emission from Indian livestock is estimated at 247.2 Mt in terms of CO₂ equivalent emissions. Although the Indian livestock contributes substantially to the methane budget, the per capita emission is only 24.23 kgCH₄/animal/year. Using the remote sensing derived potential feed/fodder area available for livestock, the average methane flux was calculated as 74.4 kg/ha. The spatial patterns derived in GIS environment indicated the regions with high GHGs emissions that need to be focused subsequently for mitigation measures. The projected estimates indicate a likely increase of 40 % in methane emissions from buffalo population.     

Terrestrial carbon pools in southeast and south-central United States

Analyses of regional carbon sources and sinks are essential to assess the economical feasibility of various carbon sequestration technologies for mitigating atmospheric CO₂ accumulation and for preventing global warming. Such an inventory is a prerequisite for regional trading of CO₂ emissions. As a U.S. Department of Energy Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partner, we have estimated the state-level terrestrial carbon pools in the southeast and south-central US. This region includes: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. We have also projected the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration in the region. Texas is the largest contributor (34%) to greenhouse gas emission in the region. The total terrestrial carbon storage (forest biomass and soils) in the southeast and south-central US is estimated to be 130 Tg C/year. An annual forest carbon sink (estimated as 76 Tg C/year) could compensate for 13% of the regional total annual greenhouse gas emission (505 Tg C, 1990 estimate). Through proper policies and the best land management practices, 54 Tg C/year could be sequestered in soils. Thus, terrestrial sinks can capture 23% of the regional total greenhouse emission and hence are one of the most cost-effective options for mitigating greenhouse emission in the region.     

中国南京与美国德克萨斯稻田甲烷排放的比较(英文)

稻田甲烷排放试验分别在南京与德克萨斯水稻生长季实施，观测期内测定甲烷排放通量、上壤温度和水稻生物量。结果表明：南京稻田土镶温度的季节性变幅为１５．３℃，甲烷排放通量与土壤温度成非线性正相关而与水稻生物量无关；德克萨斯稻田土壤温度的季节性变幅为的２．９℃，甲烷排放通量与土壤温度无关而与水稻生物量成线性正相关。由此得出结论：在持续淹水和无外源有机碳施加的条件下，土壤温度变幅大的地区驱动稻田甲烷排放季节性变化的关键因子为土壤温度，土壤温度变幅小的地区其关键驱动因子则为水稻的生长量。     

1955-2005年中国稻田甲烷排放估算

 将稻田甲烷排放模型CH4MOD和GIS空间化数据库结合,模拟估计了中国大陆1955-2005年水稻生长季稻田甲烷排放量。结果表明：中国稻田甲烷排放总体呈增加趋势,1960年代、1970年代、1980年代和1990年代年均排放量分别为（3.18±0.53）、（4.71±0.27）、（5.22±0.24）和（5.79±0.34）Tg,2000-2005年平均排放量为（6.25±0.36） Tg。1960-1975年增加最快,速率为0.167 Tg/a;自1970年代中期开始增加速率减缓,为0.054 Tg/a。中国稻田甲烷排放高值区主要分布在湖南、湖北、江西、广东、广西、江苏和安徽省,约占全国稻田甲烷排放总量的73.2%。自1980年代初以来,东北三省稻田甲烷排放增加显著,这主要归因于该区水稻种植面积的迅速扩大。     

中国南京与美国德克萨斯稻田甲烷排放的比较

Field measurements of methane emission from rice paddies were made in Nanjing, China and in Texas, USA, respectively. Soil temperature at approximately 10 cm depth of the flooded soils was automatically recorded. Aboveground biomass of rice crop was measured approximately every 10 days in Nanjing and every other week in Texas. Seasonal variation of soil temperature in Nanjing was quite wide with a magnitude of 15.3℃ and that in Texas was narrow with a magnitude of 2.9℃. Analysis of methane emission fluxes against soil temperature and rice biomass production demonstrated that the seasonal course of methane emission in Nanjing was mostly attributed to soil temperature changes, while that in Texas was mainly related to rice biomass production. We concluded that under the permanent flooding condition, the seasonal trend of methane emission would be determined by the soil temperature where there was a wide variation of soil temperature, and the seasonal trend would be mainly determined by rice biomass production if there are no additional organic matter inputs and the variation of soil temperature over the rice growing season is small.     

Atmospheric methane budget in Africa

This assessment of the atmospheric methane budget for the African Continent is based on a set of experimental data obtained in tropical Africa including methane emission from various biogenic sources, and biomass burning, and methane consumption in savanna and forest soils. Emission rates from the various sources, uptake rates of soils, and complementary data from the litterature allow calculation of regional methane fluxes by means of different data bases. Biomass burning, animals and natural wetlands are the three dominant sources of methane in Africa while rice paddy fields and termites appear as minor sources. The total methane emission is estimated to be in the range 20–40 MT of CH₄ per year, methane uptake by soils being less than 2 MT per year. Net methane emission from the African continent accounts for less than 10% of global emissions from terrestrial ecosystems.     

中国城市固体废弃物甲烷排放研究

The greenhouse effect of methane (CH4) is only inferior to that of carbon dioxide (CO2). As an important anthropogenic emission source, the calculation of the emission amount of CH4 from waste treatment in landfills plays an important role in compiling greenhouse gases inventory and in estimating the climate change effects caused by increasing of greenhouse gases. Based on the previous work, and according to the sampling and analysis on municipal solid waste (MSW) in typical cities, the degradable organic carbon (DOC) percentile was identified in typical cities in recent years. According to the IPCC greenhouse gases inventory guideline and default method of CH4 emission from MSW landfills, and in light of MSW managing situation in different regions, the amount of CH4 emission was calculated. The results show that the amount of CH4 emission decreases geographically from east to west and it increases temporally from 1994 to 2004 in China.     

Estimates of global N2O emissions from cattle, pig and chicken manure, including a discussion of CH4 emissions

Humans seem to have doubled the global rate of terrestrial nitrogen fixation. Globally 50–70% (85 Tg, 1 Tg=10¹² g) of the nitrogen supplied in fertilizer (80 Tg N/a) and leguminous crops (40–80 Tg N/a) are used to feed cattle. The aim of the present study was to derive some estimates of global N₂O production from animal manure. As the parameter giving the most stable numerical basis for regional and global extrapolation we adopted the molar emission ratios of N₂O to NH₃. These ratios were measured in cattle, pig and chicken housings with different manure handling systems, in dung-heaps and in liquid manure storage tanks. Individual molar emission ratios from outside manure piles varied over two orders of magnitude, strongly dependent on the treatment of the manure. A median emission ratio of 1.6×10^-2 (n=65) was obtained in cow-sheds with slatted floors and liquid manure stored underneath and a median ratio of 24×10^-2 (n=31) was measured in a beef cattle housing with a solid manure handling system.We next extrapolated to global NH₃ emissions from those estimated for Europe, using N uptake by the animals as a scaling factor. Multiplication with observed N₂O to NH₃ ratios next provided some estimates of regional and global N₂O emissions. To account for the great variability of the emission ratios of N₂O/NH₃, we developed upper and lower case emission scenarios, based on lower and upper quartiles of measured emission ratios. The global emission from cattle and swine manure is in the range of 0.2–2.5 Tg N-N₂O/a, representing 44+-39% of the annual atmospheric accumulation rate. This N₂O emission arises from about 40 Tg N/a of cattle and pig manure stored in or at animal housings. We did not account for N₂O emissions from another 50 Tg N/a excreted by grazing cattle, goats and sheep, and application of the manure to agricultural fields. Our study makes it clear that major anthropogenic N₂O emissions may well arise from animal manure. The large uncertainty of emission ratios, which we encountered, show that much more intense research efforts are necessary to determine the factors that influence N₂O emissions from domestic animal manure both in order to derive a more reliable global estimate of N₂O release and to propose alternative waste treatment methods causing smaller N₂O releases. In our studies we found large enhancements in N₂O releases when straw was added to the manure, which is a rather common practice. In view of the ongoing discussion in Europe to re-install the traditional solid manure system (bed down cattle) for environmental and animal welfare reasons, it is noteworthy that our measurements indicate highest N₂O release from this particulary system.In a similar manner, but based on a smaller data set, we also estimated the release of CH₄ from cattle and swine manure and from liquid manure only to be about 9 Tg/year in good agreement with the estimate by the Environmental Protection Agency (1994) of 8.6+-2.6 Tg/year. A total annual methane release as high as 34 Tg/a was derived for solid and liquid cattle and pig manure from animals in housings.