多尺度空气质量模式系统及其验证I. 模式系统介绍与气象要素模拟

主要介绍一个多尺度空气质量模式系统及其在东亚地区的应用. 这套模式系统充分考虑了天气系统与中、小尺度气象过程对污染物的输送、扩散、转化和迁移过程的影响, 区域与城市尺度之间大气污染物的相互影响, 以及污染物在大气中的气相与液相化学过程、非均相化学过程、气溶胶过程和干湿沉积过程对浓度分布的影响, 可用于区域与城市尺度对流层臭氧、大气气溶胶、能见度和其他空气污染物的预报和环境评价. 模拟的气象要素(风向、风速、温度和湿度)与TRACE-P 和ACE-Asia期间三架飞机上获取的观测资料的比较结果表明, 模拟值与其相应的观测值具有非常好的一致性, 它们的相关系数都超过了0.96.     

大亚湾核电站厂址区域大气扩散研究

采用一个基于流体静力平衡的动力学诊断模式对大亚湾核电站厂址区域的气象场进行实际模拟,研究了复杂地形和下垫面对流场的动力和热力作用。数值实验表明：模式能很好地模拟中尺度局地环流的基本特征和变化规律。在模拟气象场的基础上,利用Monte Carlo多源模式计算了污染物的时空分布和干湿沉积量。模拟结果显示：模式很好地反映在海陆风和山谷风环流及排牙山影响下大气参数的非均匀性和非平稳性。     

复杂气流系统中的空气污染物输送与扩散的烟团轨迹模式研究──Ⅰ:烟团轨迹模式介绍

建立了一个三维时变、考虑风切变的烟四轨迹模式,用以模拟复杂气流系统中污染物散布的特征.模式具有以下几个特点：（1）常规资料作为模式输入,对边界层参量进行参数化.（2）重新考虑了混合层反射。（3）利用新的扩散参数计算方案.（4）修正了烟团分裂方案。模式能够处理湍流和风切变引起污染物扩散、非均匀风场对污染物的输送、干湿沉积、线性化学反应、混合层高度和稳定度的周日变化、地形地物等对污染物散布的影响。     

辽宁中部城市群主要大气污染物时空分布特征的数值模拟

利用美国第三代空气质量模式系统Models-3对2002年1月17～18日辽宁中部城市群大气污染物SO2,NO2和PM10的浓度分布进行了数值模拟,并将模拟结果与监测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:污染物的模拟值与观测值变化趋势具有一致性,模式反映了SO2,NO2和PM10浓度的时空分布特征和变化规律,再现了污染物浓度呈波峰波谷日变化的重要特征,可用于辽宁中部城市群区域大气污染物的研究。     

南昌市空气质量预报产品检验分析及统计订正试验

利用南昌市环境空气质量监测数据,对比分析了WRF-Chem模式和国家级空气质量预报指导产品对6种污染物浓度的预报效果,并采用时序法、时刻法和标准化法3种训练样本构建方案,利用BP神经网络法对WRF-Chem模式和国家级空气质量预报指导产品6种污染物浓度的预报结果进行订正试验。结果表明:1)WRF-Chem模式预报的6种污染物浓度的预报误差整体比国家级空气质量预报指导产品的预报误差要小,即WRF-Chem模式的预报效果优于国家级空气质量预报指导产品。2)WRF-Chem模式6种污染物浓度预报值与观测值的均方根误差的日变化均呈波动形式,除了O3在10时开始升高到18时达到峰值以外,其余的污染物均是从10时开始下降到16时或18时达到谷值。国家级指导产品6种污染物浓度预报值与观测值的均方根误差日变化则略有不同,除了NO2和O3分别在08时和20时达到谷值以外,其他4种污染物均是在14时达到谷值。3)采用标准化法对CO、SO2、PM10、PM2.5集合订正后的误差比WRF-Chem模式的要小;时刻法、时序法对NO2、SO2、PM2.5集合订正后的误差比WRF-Chem模式的要小,预报效果对单一模式预报结果有一定改进作用。     

基于CUACE系统沈阳地区春季空气质量预报的校验及修正

本文基于CUACE系统,利用2015年4—5月沈阳市大气环境观测数据对沈阳地区春季空气质量的预报效果进行了校验和修正。结果表明:CUACE模式对6种污染物(PM10、PM2.5、NO2、O3、SO2和CO)质量浓度的预报值普遍小于观测值,对PM10浓度的预报存在严重低估。CUACE模式预报的沈阳地区春季日首要污染物多为PM2.5,而观测表明沈阳地区春季PM10和PM2.5为日首要污染物的日数相当。同时,CUACE模式预报的空气污染等级与实际观测的空气污染等级相比存在较高的等级偏差率。利用污染物观测浓度和预报浓度之间的线性拟合公式修正CUACE模式的预报结果,修正后首要污染物的预报结果与实际观测结果基本吻合,同时空气污染等级的预报准确率也明显提高,提高幅度为50.0%—80.0%。     

“箱”模式在特殊地形条件上的应用

兰州市区特殊地形气象条件以及大气污染物排放源分布特征,造成大气环境的不断恶化。在不具备应用城市多源模式前题下,选用简便易行的“箱”模式对该地区大气污染物年日平均浓度进行预测,并用预测值和实测值进行了误差检验,相关关系极显著,还确定了误差修正值。在此基础上,对今后5年年日平均浓度进行了预测和分析。认为用经过订正后的“箱”模式预测兰州市区大气污染物年日平均浓度是可行的,且预测精度较高。     

一种可变烟团轨迹模式的计算方案

本文简要阐述了烟团轨迹模式及其在区域空气污染物输送与扩散估算中的应用特点,介绍了目前流行的对各种大气过程模拟处理的途经。运用作者组建的一种模式,选取适当模式参数和气象资料,对一个450×450平方公里范围的区域空气污染物的输送和扩散作了模式计算,算例表明了模式运用的可取性。为进一步了解此类模式性能,作了模式及其参数的灵敏度检验,结果表明:空气污染物的沉积速率、化学转化率、输送风场等对浓度估算结果影响显著,而热力混合层等因子的影响则不甚灵敏。     

CAPPS3模式在福州市预报效果检验

对2009年7月至2010年6月区域空气质量数值预报模式CAPPS3在福州市的应用进行效果检验,分析各季节CAPPS3预报福州市3种污染物SO2、NO2和PM10的等级预报准确率、转折性天气预报准确率及与监测值的相关系数以及综合评分。结果表明：夏秋季节CAPPS3模式3种污染物等级预报准确率较高,冬季NO2和春季PM10的等级预报准确率较低,错误等级预报多数偏高;转折性天气预报准确率夏秋季最高,春季最低,模式对天气形势的变化反应不灵敏,特别是污染物浓度突变时,预报能力较差,当天气形势稳定时,预报效果较好;CAPPS3模式浓度预报值较监测值有偏大和滞后的缺点;相关系数及综合评分结果夏秋季最高,春季最低。CAPPS3总体预报效果较好,可提供有价值的指导预报,适合业务运行。     

凹坑地形风流结构对污染物散布的模拟研究

利用建立的三维非静力高分辨率高阶湍流闭合模式与随机游动扩散模式研究了一个深凹露天矿区污染物散布的规律,同时在风洞中进行了示踪实验。结果表明,由于凹坑内复环流结构的存在,使得坑内污染物浓度较大,且浓度最大值出现在源的上风侧。数值试验与风洞试验结果吻合较好。     

街谷大气扩散试验研究

为研究机动车辆排出的污染物在大气中的扩散规律，在北京做了小风条件下的街谷示踪试验。当楼顶风速u接近或大于1米/秒时，街谷内可形成一稳定的原生涡；u＜0.6米/秒时原生涡将消失。对于楼之间空间较小的街谷，背风面和迎风面的示踪剂浓度平均比值可达8。浓度值沿楼层高度无明显变化；由于快车路旁松墙的阻挡和抬升作用，可能造成沿高度方向楼层中段的浓度偏高。在街谷外，除下风方路面上有一按下风距离的负幂指数衰减的浓度分布外，上风方路面上也有一按较大负幂指数衰减的分布。根据上述试验，给出了用以预测街谷中机动车辆排出的惰性气体污染物的扩散模式；模式中，对原生涡和小尺度湍流，做了分别处理。     

The transport and dispersion of airborne contaminants in boundary layers over the ocean and an isolated island cape

A series of sixteen atmospheric tracer experiments using sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), chemical smoke and meteorological balloons was conducted to explore the transport of airborne contaminants in the boundary layer over the ocean surface and in the separating boundary layer over an isolated island cape. The immediate objective of the tests was to determine the impact of local pollutant sources on a background air quality sampling program conducted in the South Pacific from elevated towers on Tutuila Island, American Samoa. In addition to satisfying this objective, the tests are of interest in that they illustrate the local behavior of pollutants in a complex natural atmospheric flow.Offshore tracer tests indicated that the crosswind dispersion of pollutants over the ocean surface can be approximately modeled using the simple Gaussian plume model. The observed crosswind dispersion of the tracer corresponded to that expected under neutrally stable atmospheric conditions, consistent with the near equilibration of the ocean surface and air temperature in the South Pacific. Local, or near-field, tests indicated that tracer released into the wake downwind of the leading edge of the cape mixed rapidly to a height of about 8 m above the surface (i.e., 30–40% of the cape height). Due to decoupling between the boundary layer over the cape and the freestream flow, however, very little of the tracer was observed above this height. This suggests that the impact of local pollutant sources (i.e., on the cape) would be minimized if the proposed sampling towers were elevated significantly above an 8 m altitude (e.g., twice that height).     

太原市大气扩散数值模拟

本文采用数值方法求解平流扩散方程，对太原市的一次示踪物实验进行了大气扩散的数值模拟。模拟结果表明：采用数值方法准确地反映出了由于风的切变而导致的污染物烟羽的转向，能较好地模拟复杂地形下太原市污染物的输送扩散过程。     

A standing wave in stable drainage flow induced by a small industrial facility

A small town close to a lead/zinc smelter was experiencing unusually high concentrations of sulfur dioxide during certain drainage flow conditions. The episodes occurred in situations where the buoyant plume rise should have been sufficient to eliminate any excessive ground level concentrations resulting from building wake effects. A field study was initiated using visible oil fog, tracer gas releases, and constant volume balloons. The resulting data revealed that a standing wave was being induced in the flow across the smelter bringing pollutants from as high as 150m agl down to 30m agl over the nearby town. The existence of the wave is attributed to the combined effects of the smelter buildings and the thermal forcing supplied by smelter operations. Data are presented characterizing the wavelike disturbance and documenting the meteorological conditions under which it occurs. A comparison is made between the simulated pollutant impacts using the tracer gas data and model predictions using the Industrial Source Complex dispersion model.     

Fluid mechanical aspects of the pollutant transport to coniferous trees

Forest decline in some parts of Europe gave rise to various environmental studies concerning the intake and uptake of pollutants in the ecosphere. As far as fluid mechanics is concerned, the current interest is centered on flow-induced phenomena, e.g., the flow-enhanced deposition of pollutants to trees. In order to understand better the mechanisms of pollutant dispersion and deposition to trees, wind tunnel experiments carried out with small real coniferous trees and model trees are summarized in this paper. The flow around single trees and tree stands, both in flat terrain and on hillsides, has been analysed. The measurements were performed with a two-component laser Doppler anemometer system installed in an atmospheric boundary-layer wind tunnel. A chemical tracer method based on an ammonia-manganese chloride reaction was applied to visualize the deposition patterns around trees and modeled forest stands.     

A high resolution global reanalysis highlighting the winter monsoon. Part II: transients and passive tracer transports

Summary In this part II of the reanalysis of the global data, we present an interpretation of the transient motion of the winter monsoon over Asia and the India Ocean. This includes an analysis of the surface layer meridional flow channels that are important for the transport of pollutants for the land mass of Asia towards the ITCZ, which is located near 10° S. We have also examined the scales of the space-time variability of the near surface flows of the winter monsoon of the 1992–1993 season. Sample forecasts of these inflow features, using a very high resolution model, are illustrated to show that the field phase of the proposed Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) can receive guidance from real time numerical experimentation. The final part of this paper addresses four dimensional trajectories and passive tracer addresses four dimensional trajectories and passive tracer transports with integration over a winter monsoon domain covering several samples of 10 day periods.With 21 Figures     

Mathematical model for hermitized atmospheric dispersion in low winds with eddy diffusivities as linear functions of down wind distance

Summary In the present paper, an attempt is made for generalized the atmospheric diffusion operator. This can be accomplished by employing the realizability procedure, to identify a surface operator, that ensures self-adjointness’ of the atmospheric diffusion operator. The dispersion modeling in low wind speeds assumes importance because of the high frequency of occurrence and episodic nature of these poor diffusion conditions. A steady-state mathematical model for hermitized model has been calculated for the dispersion of air pollutants in low winds by taking into account the diffusion in the three coordinate directions and advection along the mean wind. The eddy diffusivities have been parameterized in terms of downwind distance for near source dispersion (Arya, 1995). The constants involved in this parameterization are the squares of intensities of turbulence. An analytical solution for resulting advection-diffusion equation with the physically relevant boundary conditions has been obtained. The solution has been used to simulate the field tracer data collected at IIT Delhi in low wind convective conditions.     

Thermal effects of urbanization and industrialization in the boundary layer: A numerical study

A numerical model developed by Pandolfo was used to compute changes in temperature resulting from changes in the physical characteristics of the surface due to urbanization and from the addition of radiatively active pollutants, such as a carbonaceous aerosol, that are characteristic of urbanization and industrialization. The model was simplified here by (1) omitting advection, and (2) by holding the pollutant concentration constant in time. The results show that changes in the physical properties of the surface, and not pollutants are the dominant factors in creating the urban heat island. Changes in the vertical thermal structure are caused by changes in the surface temperature near the surface and by the presence of pollutants at higher levels.     

人为热排放的引入对北京地区精细模拟的改进

将人为热排放纳入到已耦合城市模块Urban Canopy Model(UCM)的中尺度气象模式Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)中,探讨了人为热排放对于北京地区精细化模拟的重要意义,其影响主要体现在以下几个方面:1)可有效改善气象要素的模拟效果,特别是对于大气边界层高度的显著性改善,该变量是控制空气质量模式中污染物垂直扩散的关键因子;2)可较好地再现城区流场及温度场,使热岛强度和中心配置更接近实况;3)可明显改善数值模式对于污染物垂直分布特征的模拟。