NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL OCEAN AND THE EL NINO PROCESS: ——PARTⅠ:CONTROL EXPERIMENT ON THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL OCEAN

A 6-layer,4°×5° horizontal resolution global ocean model has been designed and improved.After a 100-year integration,an equilibrium state has been reached from the upper to lower layers.By taking the mean state of last l0 model years as climatic state,we analyzed the characteristics of the seasonal variation in our model integration.The results show that the simulated seasonal variation is similar to the observed.So the design of our model is successful.Then,using the simulated climatic state of the seasonal variation as the initial state,and the observed stress and thermal state as the atmospheric forcing,we simulated the process of El Nino in 1972-1973 successfully.The simulated results of seasonal variation using our model will be presented in part Ⅰ.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL OCEAN AND THE EL NINO PROCESS:PARTI:CONTROL EXPERIMENT ON THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL OCEAN

A 6-layer,4°×5° horizontal resolution global ocean model has been designed and improved.After a 100-year in-tegration,an equilibrium state has been reached from the upper to lower layers.By taking the mean state of last l0 mod-el years as climatic state,we analyzed the characteristics of the seasonal variation in our model integration.The resultsshow that the simulated seasonal variation is similar to the observed.So the design of our model is successful.Then,us-ing the simulated climatic state of the seasonal variation as the initial state,and the observed stress and thermal state asthe atmospheric forcing,we simulated the process of El Nino in 1972—1973 successfully.The simulated results of sea-sonal variation using our model will be presented in part I.     

EXPERIMENT ON THE FORECAST OF CHARACTERISTIC QUANTITIES OF ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE BY MESOSCALE MODEL MM5

In nested nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5,the characteristic quantities of atmosphericturbulence,i.e.,the standard deviations of the turbulent fluctuated speeds for three directions inPBL are computed by Mellor-Yamada's level 2.5 closure scheme.The magnitudes and the verticalprofiles of these quantities computed from the model are closely connected with temperature andwind speed profiles as well as the type of the ground with a significant diurnal variation,and are inagreement with known magnitudes and regularities in different stratification conditions.Hence themethod in this paper is reasonable and convincible.Their horizontal distribution depends on thehorizontal distribution of the stratification.The method of predicted characteristic quantities ofturbulence from mesoscale model in this paper can be used in the problem of atmospheric diffusionand atmospheric environment.     

THE CELL-MOVE-EXPANSION MODEL FOR THE EVALUATION OF GROUND LEVEL POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION

A model for evaluating pollutant concentrations near the ground is developed. The main advantages of the model are its ability to estimate the distribution and variation of ground concentration under non-uniform or unsteady wind field with minimal computations and the elimination of numerical pesudo-diffusion.     

AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART I:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES

Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface ProcessModel(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)Thecombination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct thegoverning equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level andphysical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lowerresolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surfacehydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soilthermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of“off-line”testshave been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has goodperformance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for manykinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert)in different climate zone.The resultssimulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group ofobservation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shownthat the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetationphysical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is muchimportant for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

A SIMPLIFIED MODEL STUDY ON THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC EFFECT OF SNOWFALL ANOMALY IN MID-HIGH LATITUDES

A simulation of the annual variation of temperature and moisture in the atmosphere and sublayer of soil in mid-high latitudes has been performed with a one-dimensional atmosphere-land coupled model, in which snowmelt process is included. The computed temperature variations in each latitudinal belt are consistent with the seasonal change of snowextent over continents in the Northern Hemisphere.To analyse the short-term climatic effect of snowfall anomaly, two sets of experiments have carried out by using the above simplified model, i. e. 1) the snowmelt period is earlier than the climatic mean and 2) snowdepth is less than the climatic mean. The results are shown in the present paper. In the first experiment, snow melts earlier, and comparing with the normal annual variation, the absorption of solar radiation increases significantly due to the earlier decrease of albedo. Thus the surface temperature is higher, and latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced. This process is characterized by thermal anom     

DYNAMICS OF LATERAL BOUNDARY MESO-SCALE JET IN THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE

By using an ageostrophie shallow water model, it is pointed out that a kind of lateral boundary meso-seales jet can be established near the plateau or coast. The charactcristie width of this kind of jet is proportional to the scale of Lc = L(?)C(?)(?),where Lo= Cof is the radius of Rossby deformation, Co= (y*H)the speed of gravity wave and g* the redueced gravity. In general, L(?) is of the order of one hundred kilometers and lens of kilometers in the atmosphere and in the ocean respectively. The large-scale gcostrophic current is an important background condition for forming this kind of jet. From this view point it seems that this kind of atmospheric meso-scale jet only occurs in late spring and summer in the eastern part of Asia, because there is a large-scale south monsoon over there. For the ocean, this kind of meso-scale jct seems to be a semi-persistant syslem and not to show a signilieanl seasonal variation, and it can be established on both sides of the ocean.     

A MODEL STUDY OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER

In this paper, a second-order model is proposed for the study of the evolution of the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). The model is tested against the Wangara data on atmospheric boundary layer. The computer results show that the model can simulate some important characters observed in the NBL, and that a kind of sudden change may occur in the developing process of NBL.     

RESEARCH ON THE PHOTO-TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENTAL RATE OF RICE

Rice is one kind of crops with short length of light, its developmental rate in the photophase depends on the light-length and temperature. Since uncultivated rice was discovered in China, about 40,000 species of rice, including photo-sensitive and temperature-sensitive types, have been growing. A number of researches have been carried out by agrometeorologists in this field. The purpose of this paper is to develop a photo-temperature model based on a considerable amount of experimental data.     

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF THE TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION AND ITS REPRODUCTION IN SAMIL-R_(42)L_9

Seasonal variations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and relationship to seasonal variation of the climate background are studied by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and output of SAMIL-R42L9. Analysis of NCEP data shows that spatial distribution of the tropical ISO has obvious seasonal variations, which are well consistent with the seasonal variation of climate background. The activity of the tropical ISO is, to a great extent, dependent on warm SST, strong convection, zonal western wind, strong precipitation and low-level moisture convergence. Main characteristics of the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO are captured by SAMIL-R42L9. Simulations of seasonal variation of climate background vary greatly with different variables. Results of SAMIL-R42L9 indicate that the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO in dynamical fields are more dependent on climate background than in heating fields and SAMIL-R42L9 cannot represent well the strong dependence of the ISO on the climate background present in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It also suggests that seasonal variations of the ISO do not completely depend on that of climate background.     

MODEL STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF SOIL NO EMISSIONS ON SURFACE OZONE

The effect of soil NO emissions on surface ozone in autumn in East China has been studied byusing TCTM(Troposphere Chemical Transport Model)with the input of meteorological variablesfrom RAMS.The chemical mechanism for ozone variation caused by soil emissions has also beeninvestigated.The model results reveal that soil NO emissions are important to regional ozoneformation and distribution and the effect of soil NO emissions shows spatial inhomogeneity.Ozoneover most areas in northern China decreases with maximum average decrement reaching 5 ppbwhile it increases over most areas of central and southern China with maximum average incrementreaching 7 ppb caused by soil NO emissions.This situation of ozone variation is mainly determinedby nonlinear photochemical mechanism.For the low NOx areas(≤3 ppb),ozone increases as NOxincreases;for the high NOx areas(>3 ppb),ozone decreases as NOx increases.The effect of soilNO emissions on ozone depends on the transition value and NOx concentrations.     

THE USE OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL EOF TECHNIQUE TO ANALYZE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

In this paper,a three-dimensional EOF technique is used to analyze the precipitation and its anomalyover whole China and sanely selected regions,i.e.the Changjiang Valley,the Huanghe Valley and the Southpart of China in last decades.The structural characteristics of spacial distribution,seasonal and interannualvariation are revealed.As a better technique than 2-D EOF,the 3-D EOF alse provides a way to expose interac-tions between temporal and spacial variations.     

DISTRIBUTION OF WATER VAPOR CONTENT ( WVC ) AND ITS SEASONAL VARIATION OVER THE MAINLAND OF CHINA

Based on the meteorological data of 105 aerological stations during the period of 1960-1969, the monthly average water vapor content ( WVC) in air column over the mainland of China is calculated. Charts showing the distribution of mean WVC for January and July and its seasonal variation associated with the atmospheric circulation in the lower troposphere over East Asia are also presented. Results obtained from this analysis will contribute to the assessment of water resources, as well as the studies of the formation of rainfall and climate.     

SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUMMER OF 1998 OVER CHINA WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

The heavy rainfall in the summer of 1998 over China has been simulated with the NCCRegional Climate Model(RegCM_NCC).It was successful for RegCM_NCC to reproduce thelocation and seasonal shift of the seasonal rain belt in the summer of 1998 over China.The rainyseason in the summer of 1998 over China can be divided into 7 episodes,including the pre-summerrainy season in South China.the Meiyu onset over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,shortappearance of North China rain season and the retreat of seasonal rain belt,the second Meiyuseason over the Yangtze River Valley,the rainy period over the Yellow and Huaihe River Valleyand the seasonal retreat of rain belt over North China.The shortcoming of the RegCM_NCC isover-estimation of precipitation amounts.The regions with large latent heat flux,upper soilmoisture and total runoff are located in the rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt duringthe different episodes.On the contrary,the regions with small sensible heat flux are located in thesimulated rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt during the different episodes.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON WAVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WINNIE （NO. 9711）

In this paper, the wind field provided by a meso-scale atmospheric model is employed. When main physical processes, including wave-current interactions, are considered, the latest version of the third generation wave model SWAN is applied to simulate the typhoon wave generated by Typhoon Winnie. The model results are compared with the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-2 satellite altimeter data and analyzed in details. Then the distribution of wave fields are analyzed, with the results showing that applying SWAN to simulate large-scale domain can also fairly reproduce the observed features of waves and realistically reflect the distribution of typhoon waves.     

APPLICATION OF THE VARIATIONAL METHOD OF TOVS DATA OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU IN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INITIAL FIELD OF NUMERICAL MODELS

In this paper,TOVS satellite data are used through variational method on the data-sparseplateau area.Diagnoses are carried out to find a way to solve the large error problem of modelinitial field.It is put forward that TOVS retrieval data can be used to improve the initial field ofnumerical prediction model on Tibetan Plateau area.Through variational method,TOVS data areprocessed and the liability of the initial information on the plateau is improved.Diagnostic resultsconfirm further that the application of TOVS retrieval data can improve our capability to describethe dynamic system features on the plateau and the objectivity of related initial information such asthe distribution of water vapor channel and stratification stability.     

THE NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON APPLICATING GEOSTROPHIC MOMENTUM APPROXIMATION TO THE BAROCLINIC AND NON-NEUTRAL PBL

In this paper, Wu and Blumen's boundary layer geostrophic momentum approximation model (Wu and Blu-men, 1982) is applied to baroclinic and non-neutral PBL, the motion equations for the PBL under the geostrophic momentum approximation are solved, in which the eddy transfer coefficient is a function of the distributions of the wind and temperature. The results are compared with those in barotropic and neutral conditions with the geostrophic momentum approximation. It is found that in the baroclinic condition, the wind distribution has both the characteristics of a steady, homogeneous and baroclinic PBL and those caused by the geostrophic momentum approximation. Those in non-neutral conditions show that they retain the intrinsic characteristics for the wind in non-neutral PBL, at the same time, the effects of the large-scale advection and local variation are also included. We can predict the wind in the non-neutral and baroclinic PBL by use of the geostrophic momentum approximation when the temporal and sp     

IMPROVEMENT OF A GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL BY INTRODUCING THE SECONDLAW OF THERMODYNAMICS

The second law of thermodynamics has never been taken into account in the traditional hydrodynamics and numer-ical weather prediction models,which is a serious oversight in the history of mechanics.Introducing the thermodynamicirreversibility into the hydrodynamic systems,the theory and method proposed in this study would not only lead theoutputs of a numerical weather prediction model to noticeable improvement,but lead the structure of hydrodynamics todeepgoing transformation.     

TIME SERIES MODEL OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION

By generalizing the concept of mean in mathematical statistics to a mean generation function(MGF),the extended matrix of MGF is defined and then a new model of time series is presented.A calculatingsehemefor modelling of monovariate time series is deduced cooperating with a normalization procedure of vectorand a couple score criterion.An example of climatic prediction for ten-year scale is given in this paper,thetendency of variation for every year can be predicted skillfully with the model.