Determination of Kolmogorov Entropy of Chaotic Attractor Included in One-Dimensional Time Series of Meteorological Data

The 1970-1985 day to day averaged pressure dataset of Shanghai and the extension method in phase space are used to calculate the correlation dimension D and the second-order Renyi entropy K2 of the approximation of Kolmogorov's entropy, the fractional dimension D = 7.7-7.9 and the positive value K2 - 0.1 are obtained. This shows that the attractor for the short-term weather evolution in the monsoon region of China exhibits a chaotic motion. The estimate of K2 yields a predictable time scale of about ten days. This result is in agreement with that obtained earlier by the dynamic-statistical approach.The effects of the lag time i on the estimate of D and K2 are investigated. The results show that D and K2 are convergent with respect to i. The day to day averaged pressure series used in this paper are treated for the extensive phase space with T = 5, the coordinate components are independent of each other; therefore, the dynamical character quantities of the system are stable and reliable.     

RESEARCH ON REBUILDING OZONE DYNAMIC SYSTEM OF ZONAL AVERAGE OVER THE TROPIC ZONE

The ozone data observed by TOMS in every 5°N are extended into the phase space to describe the characteristics of ozone with phase trace. First of all, the fractional dimension of the ozone layer is calculated. Then.the phase points are regarded as some discrete characteristics solution, and the parameters of mathematical model which describe the time variation of system state are retrieved, so that the nonlinear dynamic system which reflects the short-term variation of zonal average ozone layer over the tropics is rebuilt.     

Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO2 in the Pacific Ocean Estimated Using Two Modeling Approaches

A basin-wide ocean general circulation model(OGCM) of the Pacific Ocean is employed to estimate the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 using two different simulation approaches.The simulation(named BIO) makes use of a carbon model with biological processes and full thermodynamic equations to calculate surface water partial pressure of CO 2,whereas the other simulation(named PTB) makes use of a perturbation approach to calculate surface water partial pressure of anthropogenic CO 2.The results from the two simulations agree well with the estimates based on observation data in most important aspects of the vertical distribution as well as the total inventory of anthropogenic carbon.The storage of anthropogenic carbon from BIO is closer to the observation-based estimate than that from PTB.The Revelle factor in 1994 obtained in BIO is generally larger than that obtained in PTB in the whole Pacific,except for the subtropical South Pacific.This,to large extent,leads to the difference in the surface anthropogenic CO 2 concentration between the two runs.The relative difference in the annual uptake between the two runs is almost constant during the integration processes after 1850.This is probably not caused by dissolved inorganic carbon(DIC),but rather by a factor independent of time.In both runs,the rate of change in anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes with time is consistent with the rate of change in the growth rate of atmospheric partial pressure of CO 2.     

Calculation of Ice Crystal Diffraction

The diffraction angular distributions are calculated for different ice crystals (e.g,solid and hollow hexagonal columns,solid plates and single hexagonal bullet) randomly oriented in space,based on the theory of Cai and Liou.Results of solid column and plate are compared with those from formulas of Wendling et al and Liou.The resull comparison shows that all three procedures discussed in this paper have good agreement.After considering the coin putation time and comparison results,it is suggested that the formula of Wendling et al.can be used to calculate the solid column diffraction,and the formula of Liou can be used to calculate the plate diffraction.The comparison also shows that the diffraction results of solid columu,hollow column and single bullet ice particles randomly oriented in space are very close.     

THE ENERGY BUDGETS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING HUBEX FIELD OBSERVATION PERIODS IN 1999

In different synoptic conditions and at different time scales,the analysis of the energy budgetsby Bowen Ratio Method and Bulk Schemes over Huaihe River Basin during the field observationperiods of HUBEX in 1999 shows that,(1)the averaged latent heat flux is an order of magnitudemore than the averaged sensible heat flux during the observation period:(2)the variation of totalcloud amount is out of phase with the terms of energy budgets except for the downward longwaveradiation which maybe is related to the cloud's height and class:(3)the values of sensible andlatent heat fluxes are small during rain episodes,but thereafter,the values become high and thenup to maximum.It is similar to the other terms of the energy budgets except for the downwardlongwave radiation.The diurnal variation of energy budgets indicates that the daytime precipitationexerts great influence to the energy budgets,but the nighttime precipitation makes little influence;(4)the variation of the latent heat flux is in phase with the evaporation,which indicates that thelatent heat flux calculated by bulk schemes is reliable:(5)the means of the sensible and latentheat flux and momentum flux by bulk schemes for the time period from May to August are,respectively,30.71W/m~2.116.81W/m~2.2.86×10~(-2)N/m~2 in 1998 and 30.28W/m~2,107.35W/m~2,2.74×10~(-2)N/m~2 in 1999.The values of these two years are similar.During summer in1999 the magnitude and activity of sensible heat flux are strongest in June and those of the latentheat flux are in August.     

A TWO-LAYER PRIMITIVE EQUATION OCEAN CURRENT MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION

A two-layer primitive equation model is developed in this paper. The capabilities of this model aretested by the use of multiyearly averaged January and July sea surface level pressure fields and windfields which can be diagnosed from the pressure fields. The results show that the ocean surface currentsand undercurrents in the second layer driven by the sea surface wind and the sea surface pressure areclose to the observation. The results are also compared with that of the IAP OGCM and the OSUOGCM.     

Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field

The dimensions of attractors and predictability are estimated from phase space trajectories of observed 500 hPa height over the Northern Hemisphere. As a first estimate the dimensions of attractors are about 11.5 and the doubling time of the initial error is 6 to 7 days for original data. But the former is shorter and the latter is longer for low frequency data set.To verify if the predictability estimated by this method and by general circulation model is identical, the doubling time of the initial error of a model data set by both methods is estimated. It is shown that the predictability obtained from phase space trajectories is overestimated to sufficient small initial error. But it is underestimated to the time being equal to the climatological RMS error.     

THE IMPACT OF MOUNTAIN TO BASIN WINDS ON THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN FOG OVER THE SICHUAN BASIN, CHINA

There is an increased demand for the accurate prediction of fog events in the Sichuan Basin (SCB) using numerical methods. A dense fog event that occurred over the SCB on 22 December 2016 was investigated. The results show that this dense fog event was influenced by the southwest of a low pressure with a weak horizontal pressure gradient and high relative humidity. This fog event showed typical diurnal variations. The fog began to form at 1800 UTC on 21 December 2016 (0200 local standard time on 22 December 2016) and dissipated at 0600 UTC on 22 December 2016 (1400 local standard time on 22 December 2016). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was able to partially reproduce the main features of this fog event and the diurnal variation in the local mountain to basin winds. The simulated horizontal visibility and liquid water content were used to characterize the fog. The mountain to basin winds had an important role in the diurnal variation of the fog event. The positive feedback mechanism between the fog and mountain to basin winds was good for the formation and maintain of the fog during the night. During the day, the mountain to basin wind displayed a transition from downslope flows to upslope flows. Water vapor evaporated easily from the warm, strong upslope winds, which resulted in the dissipation of fog during the day. The topography surrounding the SCB favored the lifting and condensation of air parcels in the lower troposphere as a result of the low height of the lifting condensation level.     

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Winter Climate of East China

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）, the multidecadal variation of North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST）, exhibits an oscillation with a period of 65-80 years and an amplitude of 0.4℃. Observational composite analyses reveal that the warm phase AMO is linked to warmer winters in East China, with enhanced precipitation in the north of this region and reduced precipitation in the south, on multidecadal time scales. The pattern is reversed during the cold phase AMO. Whether the AMO acts as a forcing of the multidecadal winter climate of East China is explored by investigating the atmospheric response to warm AMO SST anomalies in a large ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results from three AGCMs are consistent and suggest that the AMO warmth favors warmer winters in East China. This influence is realized through inducing negative surface air pressure anomalies in the hemispheric-wide domain extending from the midlatitude North Atlantic to midlatitude Eurasia. These negative surface anomalies favor the weakening of the Mongolian Cold High, and thus induce a weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon.     

The Impact of Agricultural Practices in China on Land-Atmosphere Interactions

Human-induced land use changes and the resulting alterations in vegetation features are major but poorly recognized drivers of regional climatic patterns.In order to investigate the impacts of anthropogenically-induced seasonal vegetation cover changes on regional climate in China,harmonic analysis is applied to 1982-2000 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVVHRR)-derived normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) time series(ten day interval data).For two climatic divisions of South China,it is shown that the first harmonic term is in phase with air temperature,while the second and third harmonics are in phase with agricultural cultivation.The Penman-Monteith Equation and the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration(CRAE) model suggest that monthly mean evapotranspiration is out of phase with temperature and precipitation in regions with signiffcant second or third harmonics.Finally,seasonal vegetation cover changes associated with agricultural cultivation are identiffed:for cropped areas,the temperature and precipitation time series have a single maximum value,while the monthly evapotranspiration time series has a bimodal distribution.It is hypothesized that multi-cropping causes the land surface albedo to sharply increase during harvesting,thereby altering the energy distribution ratio and contributing to observed seasonal vegetation cover changes.     

ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY TELERESPONSE TO ANOMALIES IN THE ANTARCTIC SEA ICE

IAP-GCM is used to document the forced teleresponse of the atmosphere to anomalies of the Antarctic sea ice as the important triggering mechanism for intraseasonal atmospheric oscillations across the globe. The time series of pentad-averaged deviations are then focused on and. with the band-pass filter approach, to address essential features of the 30-60 day low-frequency oscillation in the response field. It is found that tile atmospheric response to the retreat of the Antarctic sea ice is of low frequency at a period of 30-60 days. The main component is the 30-60 day intraseasonal oscillation in the forced field, with the vertical structure and distribution features similar to real atmosphere.     

Analysis of ice water path retrieval errors over tropical ocean

Retrieval of multi-layered cloud properties, especially ice water path (IWP), is one of the most perplexing problems in satellite cloud remote sensing. This paper develops a method for improving the IWP retrievals for ice-over-water overlapped cloud systems using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) data. A combined microwave, visible and infrared algorithm is used to identify overlapped clouds and estimate IWP separately from liquid water path. The retrieval error of IWP is then evaluated by comparing the IWP to that retrieved from single-layer ice clouds surrounding the observed overlapping systems. The major IWP retrieval errors of overlapped clouds are primarily controlled by the errors in estimating the visible optical depth. Optical depths are overestimated by about 10–40% due to the influence of the underlying cloud. For the ice-over-warm-water cloud systems (cloud water temperature Tw > 273 K), the globally averaged IWP retrieval error is about 10%. This cloud type accounts for about 15% of all high-cloud overlapping cases. Ice-over-super-cooled water clouds are the predominant overlapped cloud system, accounting for 55% of the cases. Their global averaged error is 17.2%. The largest IWP retrieval error results when ice clouds occur over extremely super-cooled water clouds (Tw 6 255 K). Overall, roughly 33% of the VIRS IWP retrievals are overestimated due to the effects of the liquid water clouds beneath the cirrus clouds. To improve the accuracy of the IWP retrievals, correction models are developed and applied to all three types of overlapped clouds. The preliminary results indicate that the correction models reduce part of the retrieval error.     

Ensemble Square Root Filter Assimilation of Near-Surface Soil Moisture and Reference-Level Observations into a Coupled Land Surface-Boundary Layer Model

The potential for using the ensemble square root filter data assimilation technique to estimate soil moisture profiles, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the planetary boundary layer （PBL） is explored. An observing system simulation experiment is designed to mimic the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture observations （θo ） and in-situ measurements of 2-m temperature （To ）, 2-m specific humidity （Qo ）, and 10-m horizontal winds [Vo =（Uo , Vo ）]. The background forecasts are generated by a one-dimensional coupled land surface-boundary layer model （CLS-BLM） with soil, surface-layer and PBL parameterization schemes similar to those used in the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. Soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the PBL evolve on different characteristic timescales, so the minimum assimilation time intervals required for skillful estimates of each target component are different. Correct estimates of the soil moisture profile are obtained effectively when a 6-h update time interval is used, while skillful estimates of surface fluxes and the PBL state require more frequent updates. The CLS-BLM requires a shorter assimilation time interval to correctly estimate the soil moisture profile than previously indicated by experiments using an off-line land surface model （LSM）. Results from assimilating different subsets of observations show that θo makes a larger contribution to soil moisture estimates, while To , θo , and Vo are more important for estimates of surface heat fluxes and the PBL state. It is therefore necessary to combine these variables to accurately estimate the states of both the land surface and the PBL. Experimentation with different prescribed observational errors shows that the assimilation system is more sensitive to increases in observational errors than to reductions in observational errors.     

A Monthly Atmospheric Circulation Classification and Its Relationship with Climate in Harbin

In this study,the classification scheme developed by Jenkinson and Collison (1977) based on a typing scheme of Lamb (1950) is applied to obtain circulation types from the mean sea-level pressure on a monthly basis.Monthly mean sea-level pressure data from 1951 to 2002 are used to derive six circulation indices and to provide a circulation catalogue with 27 circulation types.Five major types (N,NW,C,CSW,and SW) which occurred most frequently are analyzed to reveal their relationships with the temperature of Harbin on various time scales.Stepwise multiple regression is used to reconstruct temperature anomaly.The monthly mean rainfall of all types occurring and the composite maps of three major types (C,CSW,and SW) relevant to Harbin's precipitation are studied. The results show that the dominant types in winter are types N and NW.types C,CSW,and SW occur frequently in summer.Types N and NW favor a negative temperature anomaly and correspond to less rainfall,while types C,CSW,and SW often induce a positive temperature anomaly and correspond to more rainfall.Moreover,a successful statistical model can be established with only one of the six indices and large-scale mean temperature.Using the model,77.3% of the total variance in the temperature anomaly between 1951 and 2002 can be reconstructed.Type C has a close relationship with total rainfall and type C precipitation plays a major role in determining the total rainfall of Harbin in recent years.This classification scheme is a statistical downscaling model and its relationships with temperature and precipitation can be used to forecast regional climate.     

ESTIMATING NORTH PACIFIC SUMMER SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE BACK TO 1600 USING PROXY CLIMATE RECORDS FROM CHINA AND NORTH AMERICA

Sea-level pressure variations over the North Pacific Ocean influence the surface climate conditions of China and western North America. Documentary records of precipitation in China data back to the mid-15th century, and a well-replicated network of tree-ring chronologies from western North America dates to the early 17th century. These proxy climate records are used separately and together to estimate sea-level pressure variations over the North Pacific back to 1600 A.D. The models are calibrated over the period 1899 to 1950 and verified over the independent period, 1951 to 1963. The best estimates, derived from predictors in China and western North America, calibrate 44.7% of summer sea-level pressure variance. The study demonstrates the potential of combining different proxy data sources to derive estimates of past climate.     

The Oscillation between Tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific:Evidence and Possible Impact on Winter Climate in China

This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China’s winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.     

Spatiotemporal Distributions of δD in Atmospheric Water Vapor Based on TES Data During 2004-2009

The spatial and temporal distributions of the stable isotopes such as HD16O (or 1H2H16O, or HDO) and H218O in atmospheric water vapor are related to evaporation in source places, vapor condensation during transport, and vapor convergence and divergence, and thus provide useful information for investigation and understanding of the global water cycle. This paper analyzes spatiotemporal variations of the content of iso- tope HDO (i.e., δD), in atmospheric water vapor, namely, δDv, and the relationship of δDv with atmospheric humidity and temperature at different levels in the troposphere, using the HDO and H2O data retrieved from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) at seven pressure levels from 825 to 100 hPa. The results indicate that δDv has a clear zonal distribution in the troposphere and a good correspondence with atmospheric precipitable water. The results also show that δDv decreases logarithmically with atmospheric pressure and presents a decreasing trend from the equator to high latitudes and from lands to oceans. Sea- sonal changes of δDv exhibit regional differences. The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of δDv in the low troposphere are consistent with those in the middle troposphere, but opposite situations occur from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The correlation between δDv and temperature has a similar distribution pattern to the correlation between δDv and precipitable water in the troposphere. The stable isotope HDO in water vapor (δDv), compared with that in precipitation (δDp), is of some differences in spatial distribution and seasonal variation, and in its relationship with temperature and humidity, in- dicating that the impacts of stable isotopic fractionation and atmospheric circulation on the two types of stable isotopes are different.     

Dissimilarity among Ocean Reanalyses in Equatorial Pacific Upper-Ocean Heat Content and Its Relationship with ENSO

This study focuses on the temporal variation of dissimilarity in heat content(HC)anomalies in the upper 300 m of ocean(HC300A)in the equatorial Pacific(±10°N)and its response to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The HC300A anomalies are derived from four ocean reanalyses that are commonly used in ENSO studies and are compared using a simple differencing method.The dissimilarity in HC300A is found to vary closely with the magnitude of ENSO(regardless of phase),meaning that it tends to be greater during strong ENSO events.However,the dissimilarity among ocean reanalyses persists after the event decays.This effect is more pronounced after strong events.The persistence of the dissimilarity after ENSO events is a result of a late maturation of the ENSO signal,its persistence,and the interruption of the signal decay due to follow-up ENSO events.The combined effect of these three factors slows down the decay of HC300A in the region and hence results in the slow decay of dissimilarity.It is also found that areas with a significant spread in vertical temperature profiles collocate with the ENSO signal during warm ENSO phases.Thus,differences in subsurface process reconstruction are a significant factor in the dissimilarity among ocean reanalyses during warm ENSO events.     

DIAGNOSIS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DYNAMIC CORRELATION FACTORS BETWEEN WEST-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EAST ASIA MONSOON SYSTEM INDEXES

Based on the daily reanalysis data of NCEP / NCAR and by using the method of phase space reconstruction, the point conditional probability density of the subtropical high ridge index are determined and then used, together with their power spectra, to seek the correlation between them and individual monsoon-affecting factors and their power spectra. Through diagnosis, six indexes are discovered that have the most important effects on the subtropical high index. The results of the diagnosis indicate that the technique can identify the factors which are dynamically correlated. It can offer the basis in determining and choosing dynamic conceptual factors.     

Evaluation of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Parameterizations under Sea-Breeze Conditions in a North Sea Coastal Environment

Three atmospheric boundary layer(ABL) schemes and two land surface models that are used in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, version 3.4.1, were evaluated with numerical simulations by using data from the north coast of France(Dunkerque). The ABL schemes YSU(Yonsei University),ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model version 2), and MYJ(Mellor–Yamada–Janjic) were combined with two land surface models, Noah and RUC(Rapid Update Cycle), in order to determine the performances under sea-breeze conditions. Particular attention is given in the determination of the thermal internal boundary layer(TIBL), which is very important in air pollution scenarios. The other physics parameterizations used in the model were consistent for all simulations. The predictions of the sea-breeze dynamics output from the WRF model were compared with observations taken from sonic detection and ranging, light detection and ranging systems and a meteorological surface station to verify that the model had reasonable accuracy in predicting the behavior of local circulations. The temporal comparisons of the vertical and horizontal wind speeds and wind directions predicted by the WRF model showed that all runs detected the passage of the sea-breeze front. However, except for the combination of MYJ and Noah, all runs had a time delay compared with the frontal passage measured by the instruments. The proposed study shows that the synoptic wind attenuated the intensity and penetration of the sea breeze. This provided changes in the vertical mixing in a short period of time and on soil temperature that could not be detected by the WRF model simulations with the computational grid used. Additionally, among the tested schemes, the combination of the localclosure MYJ scheme with the land surface Noah scheme was able to produce the most accurate ABL height compared with observations, and it was also able to capture the TIBL.