广东揭汕潮地区城市群地震灾害及地震易损性分析

从历史最大地震烈度分布图分析,可知揭阳、汕头、潮州三市位于Ⅶ～Ⅷ度高地震烈度区。该城市群地震灾害有以下特点:市区发生破坏性地震的潜在危险性大;地震时市区地震烈度高,地震灾害大,损失严重。采用宏观经济易损性的地震损失分析方法,重演该区的历史破坏性地震。分析表明:抓好该区的防震减灾工作是保持社会和经济建设持续发展的一项重要工作。     

THE LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLD IN THE EARTHQUAKE-STRICKEN AREA OF NING'ER,YUNNAN PROVINCE

Strengthening livelihood capacities and making them sustainable is a crucial component of disaster risk reduction. Earthquake disaster not only destroys the whole social production and life system, but also seriously affects the livelihood activities and reduces the livelihood capability of people in the earthquake-hit area. In this paper, taking the stricken area of Ning'erM_S6.4 earthquake in 2007 as an example, we analyzed the livelihood vulnerability of rural household in Yunnan, using the method of questionnaire and on-site interview. The results show that on the whole, the rural household livelihood is much more vulnerable, which would lead to the higher risk of livelihood in Ning'er earthquake-hit area, Yunnan. The main reasons for the higher vulnerability of rural household are the lacks of single or multiple livelihood capitals. Moreover, the livelihood vulnerabilities of rural households with the lacks of human capitals and multiple capitals are the highest. The rural households with the lacks of human capitals and multiple capitals would face much more risk of livelihood. To expand their social capital, raise their cultural quality, increase the ways for living, accelerate household wealth accumulation and improve the level of household buildings are the effective ways of reducing livelihood vulnerability and decreasing the effects of earthquake disaster for local rural households in Ning'er, Yunnan.     

四川省房屋建筑易损性研究

研究房屋建筑易损性特征是防震减灾工作必不可少的环节之一，本文通过对多年工作的系统总结，得出四川省不同地区的房屋建筑易损性矩阵，全省房屋建筑抗震性能总体水平不高，这是造成地震灾害加重的主要原因之一，随着经济发展实力的提高，适当提高全省房屋建筑抗震设防水平可大大减轻特别是中强地震所造成的经济损失。     

预测人员震害损失的神经网络模型

随着区域经济的发展与城市化进程的加快，人口的集中度不断增加，这也给抗震防灾带来了新的课题。对地震中人员的损失进行有效的预测可为抗震防灾工作提供有力的管理方向。选择地震发生的震级、震源深度、震中烈度、设防水准、地震加速度、人口密度、地震预报等影响地震灾害人员伤亡的主要因素作为预测指标，以37次严重地震灾害为样本，建立了我国特征的BP神经网络地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型。     

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (I)

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩｔｉｓｋｎｏｗｎｔｈａｔＣｈｉｎａｉｓａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅ ｐｒｏｎｅｃｏｕｎｔｒｙｉｎｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄａｎｄｉｓａｌｓｏａｃｏｕｎｔｒｙｓｕｆｆｅｒｉｎｇｍｏｓｔｓｅｖｅｒｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｃａｌａｍｉｔｉｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄ .Ｃｈｉｎａ’ｓｔｅｒｒｉｔｏｒｙｏｃｃｕｐｉｅｓａｂｏｕｔ 1 1 4ｏｆｔｈｅｇｌｏｂａｌｃｏｎｔｉ ｎｅｎｔａｌａｒｅａ ,ｗｈｉｌｅａｂｏｕｔ 1 3ｏｆｇｌｏｂａｌＭ≥ 7.0ｃｏｎｔｉｎｅｎｔａｌｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｄｉｎＣｈ…     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.     

避震疏散场所规划在实际中的应用

避震疏散场所规划,应根据城市区域整体规划、建筑物震害预测结果及所需疏散的人口数量和分布情况进行合理安排。通过广州市萝岗区现场勘查,按照规划原则,对该区避震疏散场所规划进行了具体研究。     

元代及其前历史强震目录增补与讨论（续）

在综合处理元代及其前地震震后救灾,减灾措施及社会影响的基础上,通过对比研究,对缺乏震害描述的地震进行了参数厘定,并对部分疑难地震进行了讨论,弥补了这一时期研究的不足。     

基于新浪微博的2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震舆情情感分析

地震等重大自然灾害发生后,越来越多的民众通过网络来获取和发布灾情信息、表达个人观点和情感等,产生了海量的地震灾害网络数据。首先简要综述了针对地震灾害网络数据的相关研究;然后以2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震为例,基于新浪微博数据,分析了社会民众对于此次地震事件表现出的情感倾向特征,结果显示:75.30%的博文表现了积极情感倾向;最后通过对不同情感倾向博文的内容分析,总结了影响网民情感波动的主要因素。     

河谷型城市的震害特点及防震减灾——以兰州市区为例

兰州是中国最典型的唯一河谷型特大城市,市内多次发生或遭受到强地震波及影响。特殊的地质构造和自然地理环境,使兰州市的震害尤其是地震诱发的地质灾害,表现出多样性、多发性、复杂性和严重性;由于城市的政治、经济结构和地位的影响,使灾害的危害表现在整体性和全局性上,因而兰州市在地震灾害面前又显示出脆弱和易损的一面。建立健全全市防震减灾的机制,预防各种次生灾害,尤其是包括滑坡在内的地质灾害,确保生命线工程的安全和正常运转,提高各级政府的管理水平,强化公众的综合应急应变能力,是做好兰州市防震减灾的重要工作。     

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

改进TOPSIS模型在城市地震脆弱性评估中的应用

针对目前仅以城市单体为对象研究城市地震灾害脆弱性,而忽视城市内部不同区域间存在特征差异的问题,选择威海市区作为研究对象,将研究范围细化至22个街道(镇),建立城市小区域地震灾害脆弱性评价模型。从人口、经济、建筑物和生命线系统4个方面选取17个指标构建城市地震脆弱性评价指标体系,应用主客观结合的三角模糊熵法和改进TOPSIS模型,计算出研究区域的相对贴近程度并进行排序,将威海市区划分为4个不同脆弱性等级。结果表明:改进TOPSIS模型能够从整体上对城市地震灾害脆弱性进行评级分区,为城市内部有针对性的制定防震减灾策略提供一个全新的思路。     

东部地区地震人员伤亡评估方法研究

我国是地震多发的国家之一,其中破坏性地震的发生频率也相对较高。伴随着我国经济的高速发展与城市化进程的加快,地震风险意识的提高以及国家对地震应急救援能力的更高要求都促进了对地震灾害评估方法的研究。其中地震人员伤亡评估方法更是灾情预测的重中之重,然而我国大部分历史地震都发生在西部,已有的地震人员伤亡评估方法也是基于西部历史地震资料统计分析得出的。人口密度更高和经济更为发达的东部地区,一旦遭遇破坏性地震,其灾害程度将远超西部,因此现有方法已不能很好地满足东部地区的地震预防和应急救援决策需求。需要结合东部地区的特点修正适用于东部地区的地震人员伤亡评估方法。本文初步分析了东西部影响地震人员伤亡的影响因素,对比主要区域差异,指出东西部地区建筑的抗震性能差异主要体现在城市自建房屋的比例和农村主要结构类型占比上。给出了东部地区地震人员伤亡评估的修正系数,并通过算例分析了其适用性。     

新世纪防震减灾工作措施探讨

地震灾害造成的损失随社会发展而加重。经济迅速发展的我国新世纪防震减灾应采取新措施；需要提高地震设防标准，鼓励部分建筑先坚固起来，使我国建设的抗震能力在几十年内逐步达到国际先进水平；应在全国范围内抑制虚报，科学地确定地震预报的震级下限,通过清理地震预报方法提高报准率，从总体上提高地震预报效益；应重视震时应急行动的研究；应加强企业的防震减灾工作，并通过立法加以落实。     

地震灾害经济易损性评估研究——以甘肃省为例

从灾害学基本理论出发结合模糊综合评价模型,建立了相应的地震灾害经济易损性的评估模型,构造了易损性因素指标集及评语集,并对甘肃省13个地级市进行地震经济易损性风险评估,最终获取经济易损性等级划分.结果表明:易损性最高的地区为兰州市、金昌市、天水市、武威市、张掖市;易损性最低的地区为平凉市、酒泉市、定西市和甘南州;其他地区介于两者之间.由于评估指标对评估目标的影响具有模糊性的特点,因此采用模糊综合评判法进行评估是合适的.     

Rapid estimation of earthquake loss based on instrumental seismic intensity: design and realization

As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M _L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.     

四川省城市地震灾害脆弱性综合评价研究

城市化进程的不断推进使得城市的地震灾害脆弱性日益加剧,而城市承灾体的脆弱性受复杂因素影响。本文针对评价指标受主观性影响较大的问题,基于人口、工程、经济及社会4个方面,构建了城市震害综合脆弱性评价指标体系;并构建基于实码加速遗传算法优化投影寻踪（RAGA-PP）的城市震害脆弱性评价模型;最后,对四川省21个市、州进行了震害脆弱性评价。结果表明:巴中、南充等地脆弱性较高,成都、攀枝花等地脆弱性较低;经济因素对城市震害脆弱性影响较大;该评价模型能够克服人为主观性,有效可行。     

基于GIS技术的城市地震应急能力研究

研究以绵阳市为例,选取城市人口密度、固定应急避难场所服务区范围、派出所服务区范围、医院服务区范围、消防队服务区范围及重大危险源爆炸范围等6项基本因子,利用GIS技术和层次分析法（AHP）对城市地震灾后应急能力进行研究。得到的绵阳市地震灾后应急能力主要结论有2个。（1）处于中低灾害应对能力的区域占总研究区面积的60.28%,表明:绵阳市二环路内整体灾害应急能力偏低,防灾减灾风险较大。（2）灾后应急能力较弱的地区主要为园艺山片区、南河片区、小枧片区以及二环路东西沿线。研究成果可为绵阳市制定城市专项防灾规划提供指导和建议,研究分析方法亦可为国内其他城市的防灾研究提供借鉴。     

地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险评价研究

为了揭示地震重灾区与次生地质灾害的关联性,以某地震灾区为例,在分析次生地质灾害类型与危害的基础上,通过计算一次泥石流总量及流量确定其危险度,并引入易损性指数,确定各评价单元次生山地灾害的易损性大小,设置评价指标;结合研究区实际,采用层次分析法构建次生地质灾害风险评价模型,对地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险进行评价。实验以次生地质灾害中的泥石流产生的灾害风险为例进行研究,结果表明,采用本文研究方法可在有效确定地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害的位置方面具有一定优势,但在纵向地震造成次生地质灾害风险评价方面需进一步进行研究。     

石渠5．1级地震与德格5．0级地震灾害对比

本文根据现场调查资料描述了四川省相邻的两县石渠县和德格县分别发生的Ｍｓ５．１和５．０级地震的灾害情况，并对这两次地震的灾害特征和灾害环境等作了对比。虽然这两次地震的震级相近，宏观震中仅相距约１３０ｋｍ（直线距离），但地震所造成的经济损失和社会影响却相差较大。导致这种灾害明显差异的原因主要是先前的冻胀灾害和自然地理环境以及建筑物场地条件的不同。