基于逻辑回归模型和3S技术的思南县滑坡易发性评价

区域滑坡易发性评价对滑坡灾害防治具有重要意义，贵州省思南县由于其特殊的自然地理和地质条件，受滑坡地质灾害的影响非常严重，因此，非常有必要对思南县的滑坡易发性进行评价。在滑坡编录的基础上，采用由RS、GIS和GPS组成的3S技术，获取了思南县的数字高程模型、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、坡长、岩土类型、地表湿度指数、距离水系的距离、植被覆盖度和地表建筑物指数10个滑坡影响因子；再在频率比和相关性分析的基础上，利用逻辑回归模型对思南县的滑坡易发性进行了评价并绘制了易发性分布图。结果表明:利用逻辑回归模型预测思南县滑坡易发性的准确率(AUC值)达到0.797，较为准确地预测出了思南县滑坡分布规律；极高和高滑坡易发区主要分布在高程低于600 m、地表坡度较大且以软质岩类为主的区域；而极低和低滑坡易发区主要分布在高程较高、地表坡度较小且以硬质岩类为主的区域。      

基于栅格最大值法的县域综合地质灾害建模

四川省地形高低悬殊, 岩性构造发育, 各类地质灾害频发, 开展地质灾害易发性评价具有重要意义。崩塌、泥石流属于广义上的滑坡, 以四川省丹巴县为例, 从考虑不同滑坡类别的区域性地质灾害易发性出发综合考虑崩塌、滑坡、泥石流的空间概率分布。基于ArcGIS通过高精度数字高程模型共选取高程、坡度等10个地质灾害关键控制因素, 采用信息量模型对综合地质灾害进行了易发性评价。最终通过ArcGIS的单元统计(Cell Statistics)功能实现多个栅格图层最大值法合成综合易发性, 进一步利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证单种滑坡类别易发性模型的精度。按照自然断点法将研究区划分为极低、低、中、高、极高易发区, 高易发区和极高易发区主要集中分布在章谷镇、太平桥乡以及甲居镇等地。研究结果证明信息量模型能对单类地质灾害进行评价, 栅格最大值法是获取综合易发性的一种有效评价方法。      

基于有效降雨阈值的澧源镇滑坡灾害危险性分析

以湖南省澧源镇为例,利用证据权模型和灰色关联度模型分别计算了坡度、地层岩性、斜坡形态、土地利用类型、人类工程活动5个因子二级状态证据权值和一级因子权重;综合2种模型确定全区滑坡易发性指数后,完成基于斜坡单元的全区滑坡易发性区划;根据研究区岩土体类型（碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩类和松散岩土体类）分组研究不同滑坡发生概率下的有效降雨阈值曲线（I-D曲线）。研究降雨时间为3日、有效强度为22.4 mm/d的降雨工况下各岩土体类型滑坡发生的时间概率。综合时间概率和易发性结果得到澧源镇基于有效降雨阈值的滑坡灾害危险性区划图。研究结果表明:澧源镇滑坡灾害高和极高易发区占研究区总面积的25%,主要沿澧河分布;极高危险区和高危险区占研究区总面积的14%,主要分布在澧河北侧。      

Failure analysis on a heavy rainfall-induced landslide in Huay Khab Mountain in Northern Thailand

On 28 th July 2018, a massive landslide occurred in a mountainous area in Northern Thailand. The landslide after ten days of heavy rainfall generated the movement of uphill mountain soil into the populated village. This study presents a comprehensive failure analysis of local rainfallinduced landslides based on topographical and geological information. Rainfall measurement data were gathered from two rainfall stations close to the study area. The rainfall records show that the total monthly rainfalls in 2018 were significantly higher than the average monthly rainfalls over the past decade. Site investigation started with an unmanned aerial photogrammetric survey to generate a digital elevation model. Then, dynamic probing test, microtremor survey, and electrical resistivity survey were carried out along undisturbed soils beside the failed slope to evaluate the thickness of the soft soil cover on top of the rock basement. During the site survey, residual soil samples were collected to determine engineering properties in the laboratory. Finally, a slope stability analysis was performed to assess the landslide hazard based on the results of aerial photogrammetric survey, field exploration, and laboratory tests. The slope stability analysis and rainfall records revealed that the Huay Khab landslide was mainly caused by an increase in the water content of residual soils due to the prolonged rainfall which led to a sharp decrease in the shear strength. This leads to the conclusion that the proposed landslide investigation program could be used to assess the potential of landslide failure due to prolonged rainfall on a local scale.     

GIS based landslide susceptibility mapping of Tevankarai Ar sub-watershed, Kodaikkanal, India using binary logistic regression analysis

Landslide susceptibility mapping is the first step in regional hazard management as it helps to understand the spatial distribution of the probability of slope failure in an area.An attempt is made to map the landslide susceptibility in Tevankarai Ar subwatershed,Kodaikkanal,India using binary logistic regression analysis.Geographic Information System is used to prepare the database of the predictor variables and landslide inventory map,which is used to build the spatial model of landslide susceptibility.The model describes the relationship between the dependent variable(presence and absence of landslide) and the independent variables selected for study(predictor variables) by the best fitting function.A forward stepwise logistic regression model using maximum likelihood estimation is used in the regression analysis.An inventory of 84 landslides and cells within a buffer distance of 10m around the landslide is used as the dependent variable.Relief,slope,aspect,plan curvature,profile curvature,land use,soil,topographic wetness index,proximity to roads and proximity to lineaments are taken as independent variables.The constant and the coefficient of the predictor variable retained by the regression model are used to calculate the probability of slope failure and analyze the effect of each predictor variable on landslide occurrence in thestudy area.The model shows that the most significant parameter contributing to landslides is slope.The other significant parameters are profile curvature,soil,road,wetness index and relief.The predictive logistic regression model is validated using temporal validation data-set of known landslide locations and shows an accuracy of 85.29 %.     

Dynamic assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system (GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County, Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distribution of the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.     

Building vulnerability evaluation in landslide deformation phase

Building vulnerability evaluation is important in the risk assessment on earthquake and flood hazards. But for landslide hazard, it is also a very important part for the people in buildings. Most discussions or researches about building vulnerability are for landslide failure, few for landslide in deformation phase. For this objective, this paper discussed about building vulnerability evaluation using Zhaoshuling landslide as an example Zhaoshuling landslide named located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. After a field survey on the geological condition of landslide, detailed field investigation on the buildings’ location and structure is carried out. To get landslide surface deformation, numerical simulation method is used under the combining condition of water fluctuation and rainfall. Then building deformation and probable damage degree is analyzed according to landslide surface deformation and the relative theory in mining. Based on the national standard building damage classification system, the vulnerability of all the buildings on the landslide is semi-quantitatively evaluated.     

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment of the Youfang Catchment using Logistic Regression

A detailed landslide susceptibility map was produced in the Youfang catchment using logistic regression method with datasets developed for a geographic information system(GIS).Known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in China, the Youfang catchment of Longnan mountain region,which lies in the transitional area among QinghaiTibet Plateau, loess Plateau and Sichuan Basin, was selected as a representative case to evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides.Statistical relationships for landslide susceptibility assessment were developed using landslide and landslide causative factor databases.Logistic regression(LR)was used to create the landslide susceptibility maps based on a series of available data sources: landslide inventory; distance to drainage systems, faults and roads; slope angle and aspect; topographic elevation and topographical wetness index, and land use.The quality of the landslide susceptibility map produced in this paper was validated and the result can be used fordesigning protective and mitigation measures against landslide hazards.The landslide susceptibility map is expected to provide a fundamental tool for landslide hazards assessment and risk management in the Youfang catchment.     

Geospatial susceptibility mapping of earthquake-induced landslides in Nuweiba area,Gulf of Aqaba,Egypt

Earthquake induced landslides are one of the most severe geo-environmental hazards that cause enormous damage to infrastructure, property, and loss of life in Nuweiba area. This study developed a model for mapping the earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility in Nuweiba area in Egypt with considerations of geological, geomorphological, topographical, and seismological factors. An integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS technologies were applied for that target. Several data sources including Terra SAR-X and SPOT 5 satellite imagery, topographic maps, field data, and other geospatial resources were used to model landslide susceptibility. These data were used specifically to produce important thematic layers contributing to landslide occurrences in the region. A rating scheme was developed to assign ranks for the thematic layers and weights for their classes based on their contribution in landslide susceptibility. The ranks and weights were defined based on the knowledge from field survey and authors experiences related to the study area. The landslide susceptibility map delineates the hazard zones to three relative classes of susceptibility: high, moderate, and low. Therefore, the current approach provides a way to assess landslide hazards and serves for geo-hazard planning and prediction in Nuweiba area.     

库水位升降与降雨作用下大型滑坡体渗流稳定性分析

库岸滑坡体分布广泛,在库水位升降和降雨条件下极易失稳。三板溪水电站东岭信滑坡堆积体总方量2 000×104 m3,最大厚度150 m,2006年水电站蓄水后滑坡体开始出现大变形,每年雨季加剧。首先经野外地质勘察和十余年监测数据整理,探明了地质条件和变形规律;其次使用SEEP/W模块对不同库水位升降速率、2019年库水位结合实测降雨条件下的饱和-非饱和流进行模拟,并采用SLOPE/W分别计算不同时刻的稳定系数。分析认为东岭信为超深层滑坡,其变形过程深受库水位升降和降雨影响;滑坡体具有明显的滞水特征,渗流过程复杂;在库水位上升过程中稳定系数不断下降,而在库水位消落过程中稳定性逐渐增强;在库水位上升和强降雨量共同作用下稳定性下降很快,汛后10 d左右达到最低值,此时的稳定性最差。本研究可用于指导库水位升降和降雨条件下大型滑坡体稳定性评价。      

Debris flows introduced in landslide deposits under rainfall conditions: The case of Wenjiagou gully

Debris flows often occur in landslide deposits during heavy rainstorms. Debris flows are initiated by surface water runoff and unsaturated seepage under rainfall conditions. A physical model based on an infinitely long, uniform and void-rich sediment layer was applied to analyze the triggering of debris-flow introduced in landslide deposits. To determine the initiation condition for rainfall-induced debris flows, we conducted a surface water runoff and saturated-unsaturated seepage numerical program to model rainfall infiltration and runoff on a slope. This program was combined with physical modeling and stability analysis to make certain the initiation condition for rainfall-introduced debris flows. Taking the landslide deposits at Wenjiagou gully as an example, the initiation conditions for debris flow were computed. The results show that increase height of surface-water runoff and the decrease of saturated sediment shear strength of are the main reasons for triggering debris-flows under heavy rainfall conditions. The debris-flow triggering is affected by the depth of surface-water runoff, the slope saturation and shear strength of the sediment.     

Analysing post-earthquake landslide susceptibility using multi-temporal landslide inventories——a case study in Miansi Town of China

The earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008, in Wenchuan County aroused a great deal of research on co-seismic landslide susceptibility assessment, but there is still a lack of an evaluation method that considers the activity state of the landslide itself. Therefore, this paper establishes a new susceptibility evaluation model that superimposes the active landslide state based on previous susceptibility evaluation models. Based on a multi-phase landslide database, the probabilistic approach was used to evaluate landslide susceptibility in the Miansi town over many years. We chose the elevation, slope, aspect, and distance from the channel as trigger factors and then used the probability comprehensive discrimination method to calculate the probability of landslide occurrence. Then, the susceptibility results of each period were calculated by superposition with the activity rate. The results show that between 2008 and 2014, the proportion of areas with low landslide susceptibility in the study area was the largest, and the proportionof areas with the highest susceptibility was minimal. The landslide area with highest susceptibility gradually decreased from 2014 to 2017. However, in 2017, 15.06% of the area was still with high susceptibility, and relevant disaster prevention and reduction measures should be taken in these areas. The larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) indicates that the results of the landslide susceptibility assessment in this study are more objective and reliable than those of previous models. The difference in the AUC values over many years shows that the accuracy of the evaluation results of this model is not constant, and a greater number of landslides or higher landslide activity corresponds to a higher accuracy of the evaluation results.     

基于确定性系数和支持向量机的地质灾害易发性评价

确定性系数（Certainty Factor,CF）是经典的地质灾害影响因子敏感性分析方法;支持向量机（Support Vector Machine, SVM）作为机器学习的代表方法,能够综合各个影响因子的关系,对地质灾害易发性进行评价。本文以云南省怒江州泸水县为研究区,将高程、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、距断裂的距离、距河网的距离、距路网的距离、地貌类型、岩土体类型、土地利用类型作为该区域地质灾害影响因子,依据各影响因子灾害面积比和分级面积比曲线对影响因子的状态进行分级。根据381个地质灾害隐患点,采用CF方法计算的各个影响因子的敏感性值,作为SVM的分类数据,建立基于CF-SVM的易发性评估模型,同时与单独SVM模型的评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明,CF-SVM模型得到的极高和高易发区主要分布在怒江两岸河谷地带,涵盖了89.76%的地质灾害隐患点,比单独SVM模型具有更高的成功率;利用ROC曲线和P-R曲线对两个模型进行检验,CF-SVM模型的评价精度分别达到92%和88%,均高于单独的SVM。由此说明,CF-SVM模型对地质灾害易发性评价有较高的预测价值,可以为地质灾害风险评估和管理提供依据。     

Numerical simulation of a high-speed landslide in Chenjiaba,Beichuan, China

High-speed landslide is a catastrophic geological disaster in the mountainous area of southwest China. To predict the movement process of landslide reactivation in Chenjiaba town, Beichuan county, Sichuan province, China, we simulated the movement process of two landslide failures in Chenjiaba via rapid mass movement simulation and unmanned aerial vehicle images(UAV), and obtained the movement characteristic parameters of the landslides. According to a back analysis, the most remarkable fitting rheological parameters were friction coefficient(μ=0.18) and turbulence(). The parameter of landslide pressure was applied as the zoning index of landslide hazard to obtain the influence zone and hazard zoning map of the Chenjiaba landslide. Results show that the Duba River was blocked quickly with a landslide accumulation at the maximum height of 44.14 mwhen the Chenjiaba deposits lost stability. The hazard zoning map indicated that the landslide hazard degree is positively correlated with the slope.This landslide assessment is a quantitative hazard assessment method based on a landslide movement process and is suitable for high-speed landslide. Such method can provide a scientific basis for urban construction and planning in the landslide hazard area to avoid hazards effectively.     

基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究

基于信息论发展起来的信息量模型是进行区域滑坡灾害风险评估的一种有效方法。GIS技术为滑坡灾害在不同模型条件下的风险评估提供了有效地技术支持。经过研究，开发出了基于MapGIS软件平台的滑坡灾害风险分析系统。在该系统支持下．采用信息量模型对中国范围内的滑坡灾害进行危险性分析。进而进行区域社会经济易损性分析。并在此基础上进行最终的滑坡灾害风险评估。     

基于信息量模型的地质灾害易发性评价:以川东南古蔺县为例

地质灾害威胁着山区人民生命财产安全, 进行地质灾害易发性评价有助于山区城镇进行规划与建设时规避灾害风险。以川东南古蔺县为例, 基于ArcGIS空间分析获取了研究区高程、坡度、岩性、斜坡结构、植被指数、距断层距离和距道路距离7个评价因子, 采用信息量模型分别对滑坡和崩塌灾害进行易发性评价后, 进一步利用ArcGIS单元统计功能对比了滑坡和崩塌易发性的信息量值, 选取相对更大的信息量值作为该栅格的最终信息量值, 绘制了研究区综合地质灾害易发性图, 利用自然断点法将古蔺县按信息量值的大小划分为极低、低、中、高和极高易发区。结果表明: 地质灾害主要分布在断层和道路附近, 断层和人类工程活动是造成研究区地质灾害频发的主要原因; 高易发区与极高易发区面积之和为1 315.62 km2, 占全区总面积的41.32%;预测模型性能经ROC曲线检验, AUC值为0.812 5, 说明栅格最大值法预测的古蔺县综合地灾易发性效果良好。      

基于无人机倾斜摄影技术的崩塌隐患早期识别及影响区划分方法

高位危岩崩塌极具隐蔽性、突发性和灾难性,传统的接触式调查方法在安全性方面无法完全保障并且也难以彻底查清边坡上各危岩块体的空间分布及发育特征,因此如何安全快速准确地获取边坡面上关键地质信息,一直是崩塌地质灾害调查及评价研究中的难点之一,也是防灾减灾工作中极为重要的环节。以连云港市某矿区高陡岩质边坡为例,提出了一套基于无人机倾斜摄影技术的崩塌隐患早期识别及影响区划分方法体系,该方法体系通过倾斜摄影技术获取研究区高分辨率影像及构建三维高精度地质模型,在此基础上利用测线法提取并统计边坡优势结构面空间展布特征及相关参数,利用赤平投影法对矿区高边坡关键危岩块体失稳模式进行判别,在完成关键危岩块体稳定性评价并划分稳定等级的前提下使用Rocfall模拟最不利工况下崩落体失稳后的滚落运动特征,从而划分出不同级别的崩塌影响区,为最终的地质灾害防治提供依据。研究表明,无人机倾斜摄影技术在崩塌隐患早期识别、破坏模式分析、稳定性评价以及崩落体威胁范围划定等方面具有显著的可行性和优越性。所提出的基于无人机倾斜摄影技术的崩塌隐患早期识别及影响区划分方法体系具有重要的参考价值。      

GIS COMPONENT BASED 3D LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT SYSTEM：3DSLOPEGIS

In this paper ,based on a new Geographic Information System(GIS) grid-based three-dimensional (3D) deterministic model and taken the slope unit as the study object ,the landslide hazard is mapped by the index of the 3D safety factor ,Compared with the one-dimensional(1D) model of infinite slope,which is now widely used for deterministic model based landslide hazard assessment in GIS,the GIS grid-based 3D model is more acceptable and is more adapt-able for three-dimensional landslide.Assuming the initial slip as the lower part of an ellipsoid ,the 3D critical slip surface in the 3D slper stability analysis is obtained by means of a minimization of the 3D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.Using a hydraulic model tool for the watershed analysis in GIS,an automatic process has been devel-oped for identifying the slope unit from digital elevation model(DEM)data,Compared with the grid-based landslide hazard mapping method ,the slope unit possesses clear topograhical meaning,so its results are more credible,All the calcula-tions are implemented by a computational program,3DSlopeGIS,in which a GIS component s used for fulfilling the GIS spatial analysis function.and all the data for the 3D slope safety factor calculation are in the from of GIS data (the vector and the grid layers).Because of all these merits of the GIS-based 3D landslide hazard mapping method,the complex algo-rithms and iteration procedures of the 3D problem can also be perfectly implemented.     

霍西煤矿区地表滑坡灾害敏感性数值建模与等级划分

本文以山西省霍西煤矿区为研究区,利用遥感和GIS方法对滑坡灾害的敏感性进行了数值建模与定量评价。利用交叉检验方法构建了径向基核函数支持向量机滑坡敏感性评价模型,并基于拟合精度对模型进行了定量评价;对各评价因子在模型中的重要性进行对比分析;基于空间分辨率为30m的评价因子,通过径向基核函数支持向量机模型获得了霍西煤矿区滑坡敏感性指数值,并利用分位数法将霍西煤矿区的滑坡敏感性分为极高、高、中和低4个等级。结果表明：拟合精度建模阶段和验证阶段分别为87.22%和70.12%;与滑坡敏感性关系最密切的5个评价因子依次是岩性、距道路距离、坡向、高程和土地利用类型;极高和高敏感区域分布了93.49%的滑坡点,面积占总面积的50.99%,是比较合理的分级方案。本研究不仅可以为研究区人工边坡调查和煤矿资源合理开采提供借鉴,对相似矿区的相关工作也具有参考价值。     

Landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment using multiple statistical approaches along the Karakoram highway,northern Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a framework of regional connectivity,which will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will have positive impact on Iran,Afghanistan,India,Central Asian Republic,and the region.The surrounding area in CPEC is prone to frequent disruption by geological hazards mainly landslides in northern Pakistan.Comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment are rarely available to utilize for landslide mitigation strategies.This study aims to utilize the high-resolution satellite images to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and subsequently develop landslide susceptibility maps using multiple techniques.The very high-resolution(VHR)satellite images are utilized to develop a landslide inventory using the visual image classification techniques,historic records and field observations.A total of 1632 landslides are mapped in the area.Four statistical models i.e.,frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression were used for landslide susceptibility modeling by comparing the landslide inventory with the topographic parameters,geological features,drainage and road network.The developed landslides susceptibility maps were verified using the area under curve(AUC)method.The prediction power of the model was assessed by the prediction rate curve.The success rate curves show 93%,92.8%,92.7%and 87.4%accuracy of susceptibility maps for frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression,respectively.The developed landslide inventory and susceptibility maps can be used for land use planning and landslide mitigation strategies.