灾害范式及其历史演进

随着人类社会的发展,人类对灾害的理解发生了很大的变化,灾害范式也在不断的演进,可以归纳为：荒政范式、工程范式、行为范式、社会范式和可持续范式5种灾害范式。通过分析这些灾害范式形成的社会历史背景、灾害的基本观点、关注的主要问题以及减灾防灾的主要对策和措施,得出以下结论：① 在人类社会历史进程中,人们对灾害的认识和理解是逐步深化和发展的;② 灾害范式与减灾实践的发展是互动生成的;③ 范式的产生与转变都有深刻的社会动因;④ 一定时期,存在一定的主流灾害范式,但其他灾害范式的影响依然存在。     

A GIS-based approach to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard in Italy

This paper argues for a multidisciplinary framework to assess the relationship between environmental processes and social sciences that can be adapted to any geographic location. This includes both physical (earthquake hazard) and human (social vulnerability) dimensions in the context of disaster risk reduction. Disasters varies drastically depending on the local context. Indeed, the probability of a natural disaster having more devastating effects in one place than in another depends on the local vulnerability components of the affected society (cultural, social and economic). Therefore, there is an important correlation between the potential risk and the social resistance and resilience of a specific place, thus the disaster response varies according to the social fabric. In this context, the evaluation of social vulnerability is a crucial point in order to understand the ability of a society (studied at individual, household or community level) to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of natural disaster events. Within this framework, the paper discusses how it is possible to integrate social vulnerability into the seismic risk analysis in Italy. Specifically, socioeconomic indicators were used to assess and mapping social vulnerability index. Afterwards, a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach was applied to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard. Through the use of a risk matrix, the classes of a social vulnerability index map were combined with those of a seismic hazard map proposed by INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology). Finally, a qualitative social vulnerability exposure map to an earthquake hazard was produced, highlighting areas with high seismic and social vulnerability levels. Results suggest the importance of the integration of social vulnerability studies into seismic risk mitigation policies, emergency management and territorial planning to reduce the impact of disasters.     

我国自然灾害研究进展与减灾思路调整

我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一。为了减轻自然灾害影响和损失,政府、科学家和人民群众进行了大量的减灾研究和实践,在致灾因子、灾害监测预报、灾害评估、自然灾害的社会经济影响、防灾减灾综合化等研究和实践方面均取得了很大进展,减灾思路逐渐从以致灾因子研究和工程预防措施为主调整为全面降低灾害系统脆弱性方面。     

社会脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法

社会脆弱性作为脆弱性的维度之一,是脆弱性与可持续性科学研究领域的新兴热点问题.在分析对国内外社会脆弱性研究文献的基础上,从概念内涵、分析框架与评价方法3 方面对社会脆弱性研究进行了评述.目前学者们对社会脆弱性概念有不同的理解,尚未形成统一的概念体系与内涵特征;系统性的社会脆弱性分析框架尚未形成,现有成果多是在脆弱性框架基础上的延伸和拓展,主要从政治经济学视角、社会—生态视角和综合视角开展研究;多元化的评价方法在社会脆弱性的应用研究中仍较少见,已有研究的评价指标体系尚不完善.未来,应进一步拓展社会脆弱性研究内容,促进多学科交叉融合;逐步统一社会脆弱性概念和分析框架,深化社会脆弱性的理论研究;加强社会脆弱性评价方法与指标体系的完善,促进多元化评价方法的应用;加强社会脆弱性减缓与调控对策研究,整合社会脆弱性与适应性框架,为提高社会适应能力与可持续发展提供科学依据.     

城市灾害社会脆弱性研究热点问题评述与展望

对城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的热点问题及趋向进行了深入的梳理和总结。研究发现,现阶段社会脆弱性研究已经成为城市灾害脆弱性的重要研究范式,但学者们在城市灾害社会脆弱性综合维度的界定、脆弱性评估方法构建、社会脆弱性与灾害种类相关性判读以及研究尺度选取等方面存在明显的争议。对这些争议进行了深入探讨,并对未来城市灾害社会脆弱性研究进行了展望,以期为中国城市防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。     

气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征

黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。     

Participatory 3-dimension mapping: A tool for encouraging multi-caste collaboration to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

This article reflects upon the use of participatory 3-dimensional mapping (P3DM) for facilitating the collaboration of different castes in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Unequal power relationships amongst upper and lower castes has indeed been identified has a major driver of people's vulnerability to natural hazards, including the negative effects of climate change, in Nepal and elsewhere in South Asia. However, this does not prevent the members of all these castes, including the lowest untouchables, to display significant capacities in facing these natural hazards and changes in climate patterns. It is therefore similarly important to harness those capacities and address the unequal power relationships underpinning vulnerability. Achieving these goals requires fostering dialogue amongst upper and lower castes as well as with other stakeholders of DRR and CCA, e.g. scientists, NGOs, government agencies, which often tend to work with a single caste because it is easier. P3DM provides a platform for such a dialogue as it makes the knowledge of every caste tangible and credible to others. This proves essential in both assessing and planning for reducing the risk of disasters and adapting to climate change. This article particularly documents activities conducted in a small village of the Terai plain of Nepal frequently affected by flooding.     

城市脆弱性研究评述与展望

当前,脆弱性为可持续性科学研究的热点问题,城市脆弱性是努力实现城市可持续发展急需开展的重要研究内容.基于国内外城市脆弱性研究文献资料的回顾,梳理了城市脆弱性概念、研究分类、分析框架、动力机制和评价方法.目前对城市脆弱性尚未形成统一的概念框架,缺乏完善的评价指标体系,对动力机制与调控的研究不足,缺少对城市耦合系统脆弱性的研究.未来,应在现有城市脆弱性研究基础上,建立综合、可行的评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型,并注重典型区域的城市脆弱性评价,为城市可持续发展提供科学依据.     

THE ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY OF CARIBBEAN ISLAND NATIONS*

ABSTRACT. Within the hazards‐ and disaster‐research community consensus exists as to factors that magnify or attenuate the effects of extreme natural events on local places. But less agreement and understanding exist concerning the methods or techniques for comparing hazard vulnerability within or between places, especially small‐island developing states. Using two Caribbean nations, Saint Vincent and Barbados, as study sites, we asked which island has the greater level of hazard vulnerability, and why. Results indicate that, although neither island has a large portion of its population living in extremely hazardous locations, Barbados has many more residents in risk‐prone areas. The methods used in this research provide valuable tools for local emergency managers in assessing vulnerability, especially through the delineation of highly vulnerable hot spots. They can also help donor organizations interested in vulnerability reduction on islands use their resources more efficiently.     

基于RS和GIS的河西走廊风沙灾害风险评估

河西走廊位于中国西北干旱、半干旱区,受到周边沙漠和戈壁的影响,风沙灾害问题比较严重。依据灾害系统理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性和承灾体易损性3个方面构建区域灾害风险评估体系和评估模型,对河西走廊风沙灾害风险进行评估。结果表明：（1）高风险地区主要分布在河西走廊内部的沙漠区,如酒泉市、玉门市、金塔县、高台县、临泽县以及武威市的北部地区,约占总面积的10.8%;（2）较高风险的地区主要分布在敦煌市、阿克塞哈萨克族自治县和河西走廊的北部,约占总面积的56.5%;（3）低风险地区位于河西走廊的东南部,该区在祁连山的天然屏障下,植被盖度高,雨水丰富;（4）作为风沙灾害的主体和对象,河西走廊的社会经济因素对风沙灾害风险的贡献率较低。而作为风沙灾害的物质基础和动力条件,沙源和风速仍是河西走廊风沙灾害风险的主要诱因;（5）经济发达城市在风沙灾害中具有更高的易损性,应该对城市邻近沙源进行重点防治。     

基于GIS的陕西省干旱灾害风险评估及区划

在分析陕西省干旱灾害气候背景和社会经济环境的基础上,结合灾害学相关理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性、防灾减灾能力4个子系统选取指标,建立干旱灾害风险评估模型。依据陕西省气象、生态和社会经济数据,运用GIS空间数据分析功能将干旱的自然和社会属性统一起来进行干旱灾害风险评估及区划。结果表明：（1）致灾因子危险性等级具有自北向南递减趋势,危险性等级最高的是榆林,其次是延安、铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、杨凌区、渭南、西安、商洛、安康和汉中。（2）孕灾环境脆弱性呈自北向南依次递减的分布趋势。脆弱性由强到弱分别是榆林、延安、铜川、宝鸡、西安、渭南、咸阳、杨凌区、商洛、安康和汉中。（3）承灾体暴露性由高到低依次是榆林、关中中部、渭南、咸阳、宝鸡、铜川、商洛、安康和汉中。（4）防灾减灾能力大小依次是榆林、关中地区、延安、汉中、安康、商洛。（5）干旱灾害风险等级自北向南呈逐渐降低趋势。干旱灾害风险由高到低依次为榆林、延安、铜川、宝鸡、渭南、西安、咸阳、杨凌区、商洛、安康和汉中。     

基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价

应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析。研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部中部东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低。     

西藏旱灾变化趋势及其风险演变（英文）

The risk posed by natural disasters can be largely reflected by hazard and vulnerability. The analysis of long-term hazard series can reveal the mechanisms by which risk changes. Drought disasters are one of the main types of disaster in the Tibet Region(TR) of China. In this study, using statistical drought disasters data in the TR from 1912 to 2012 and socio-economic statistics for five periods between 1965 and 2015, and adopting standard statistical analyses, a wavelet analysis, and a risk assessment model, we first construct the index system for drought disaster risk assessment, and then assess the risk of drought disasters and analyze the mechanisms of changes in risk. The results showed that the occurrence of drought in the TR had three distinct cycles during this study periods, with durations of 5, 15, and 27 years respectively. The frequency of drought in the TR showed increasing trends, and the cycle of drought had been prolonged. From 1965 to 2015, the risk of drought disaster in the TR is significantly increased with the growth rate of 6.8% in high-risk area. In addition, the severity of drought had enhanced, especially in Qamdo. The increased vulnerability locally and significantly enhanced hazard of drought disaster, with a shrinkage of 16.3% in the low-value area and an expansion of 7.4% in the high-value area, being the determinants of drought disaster risk. Therefore, agricultural areas of the TR are the focal locations where risk of drought disaster needs to be managed.     

Natural hazard experiences and adaptations: A study of winter climate-induced road closures in Norway

The effects of global climate change include more extreme weather events that harm lifeline infrastructure such as road access. The questionnaire-based study takes a novel natural experiment approach to subjective personal experiences and perceptions of lifeline vulnerability in two seaside communities in Norway that have been sporadically isolated due to avalanches, heavy snowfall, and/or snowdrifts. The enquiry aims at filling a research gap on sudden winter climate-induced disconnections and road travel hazards in advanced societies. The results show that weather-induced road closures lead to worries about road travel and practical problems, but also that many people are able to adjust to reduce their vulnerability. The authors concluded that community characteristics such as available services and social and human capital are important for understanding people’s vulnerabilities, worries, and hazard preparedness.     

城市减灾研究综述

加强防御、控制城市灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是当今国内外减灾工作的重点中的重点。在分析国内外城市减灾研究的基础上,提出当前城市防灾减灾研究中应重视开展城市灾害形成机制与活动规律、减灾理论与方法和减灾管理与对策的研究,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统构建、城市空间信息基础设施建设、城市易损性、风险性评价和灾害损失评估系统的研究。     

Environmental hazards and natural disasters

How can the apparently growing frequency and cost of environmental hazards be explained? Drawing on a range of examples, and especially the Canterbury earthquakes, it is argued that the creation of knowledge about these events depends on the interplay of lived and historical experience with scientific awareness. But often the vulnerability of places to particular events is obscured by popular use of the terms ‘natural hazard’ or ‘natural disaster’, as if human behaviour is absolved from any responsibility. It is shown how such thinking often increases the extent of the hazard, so that although we do not cause earthquakes, floods and bushfires, we are implicated and complicit in the outcomes.     

Place ontologies and a new mobilities paradigm for understanding awareness of vulnerability to terrorism in American cities

There is increasing evidence that people interpret their risk from environmental hazards through places—such as urban neighborhoods. At the same time, heightened levels of mobility are theorized to be leading to a so-called “placeless society” and possibly nullifying theories of locality-based risk perception. The purpose of this study is to combine environmental risk-hazards scholarship with work in urban geography to explore the following question: is perception of vulnerability to terrorism influenced by place and mobility, and if it is, what is the relationship? Drawing on interviews with 93 householders in Boston, Massachusetts, I demonstrate that people perceive vulnerability via understanding the transportation environment as a place—not simply a conduit—and that these perceptions reflect larger societal structures, such as wealth and gender disparities, that combine with (im)mobility and human subjectivity to amplify or attenuate a person’s sense of vulnerability. These findings bring an understanding of subjective experience to the geography of transportation systems, which has not yet been theorized within the urban disaster literature.     

中国灾害风险与贫困互相关效应的理论分析与实证研究

在全球自然灾害频发和贫困长期且不均衡展布的背景下,灾害风险与贫困的联结成为学术界和利益相关者关注的焦点。基于自然灾害风险管理和社会-生态韧性评估的基本原理,系统论述了灾害致贫和贫困致险的作用机理与驱动路径,这种互相关效应称为灾害风险-贫困的“羁绊”;基于中国31个省（自治区、市）2010—2019年的面板数据,运用计量经济学回归分析方法,以证实减轻灾害风险和扶贫脱贫在省域尺度上存在双向加持的作用。结果表明：（1） 较高的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性和脆弱性及复杂的灾害风险情景引发了人员伤亡、资产破坏和经济损失等多重负面影响,最终导致和加剧了经济、机会、能力和文化的多维度贫困;贫困群体农业生计和家庭资产的高暴露性和低韧性放大和累积了灾害风险。（2） 中国在脱贫攻坚和全面建设小康社会的进程中,减灾扶贫和脱贫降险的循环效应显著,籍此带来了乡村振兴、治理现代化等战略的属性加持。（3） 贫困致险的机制较为隐性且主要显现于广布型灾害风险情景,对其无视或轻视可能带来投资减灾失效、学科范式陷阱和不可持续发展等诸多后果。研究结果可为中国的减灾和扶贫协同发展提供理论依据和现实证据,并为贯彻落实经济、政治、文化、社会和生态文明建设“五位一体”战略,实现“双碳”目标和应对全球气候变化提供智力支撑。     

京津冀地区县域单元地质灾害风险评估

以京津冀地区为例,探索县域单元的地质灾害风险评估方法。通过测算地质灾害危险性与承灾体易损性,以定性综合评估的方式实现县域单元地质灾害风险评估。实际评估中,将承灾体易损性分为人口安全易损性与资产易损性,分别用因灾死亡人口比与因灾直接经济损失比加以表征;再以国土资源部2001-2015年地质灾害灾情数据为基础,参考1950-2000年灾情数据,提出人口安全易损性与资产易损性的分级标准,并在京津冀地区进行了评估。结果表明：研究区整体地质灾害风险低,204个评估单元中仅有6个为中风险区,包括河北省涞源县、涞水县、武安市、青龙满族自治县、北京石景山区、延庆区,其余198个为低风险区,与实际情况相符。此方法快捷简便、数据可连续获取,符合建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制要求。空间差异化评估结果可为主动防灾减灾、国土空间管理提供支撑。     

地理协同论——从理解“人—地关系”到设计“人—地协同”

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