基于时空轨迹数据的传染病传播风险评估

本文利用CRAWDAD提供的2009年10月份纽约市的出租车时空轨迹数据,依据复杂网络理论在城市交通网络中的应用,提出了一种方法求解出租车空间密度表示移动人群的时空密度变化,并用不同时段的平均速度表示人群的移动速度综合判定传染病在市内传播的高风险区域,重点分析了13时传染病传播的风险区位。通过建立空间密度与平均速度的二维特征空间,并将齐夫定律与能够遍历曼哈顿区的最大速度作为条件确定传染病传播的风险边界。结果反映在二维特征空间中,由最大遍历速度、安全行驶的空间密度临界值与数据上边界围成的三角区内节点对应的实际区位为传染病传播的高危区域。     

长株潭COVID-19疫情时空演化与传播趋势分析

利用本体建模的方法构建城镇公共安全事件链模型和传染病事件链传播模型,分析传染病事件的发生对社会生活和工作的影响,并选择典型案例分析其感染过程及原因,最后对新冠病例在长株潭地区的时空扩散特征以及在各县区疫情传播和变动的空间差异进行分析.结果表明:①长株潭各县区的疫情扩散格局和综合风险格局存在显著差异.主城区的扩散风险较高...     

石家庄市新冠肺炎疫情演变特征及时空聚集性分析

传染病的时空分布特征一直以来都是研究者关注的焦点,地理信息系统(Geographic Information Systems,GIS)为研究疾病传播的时空信息规律提供了有力的技术支撑。本文基于GIS的空间自相关分析、热点聚集分析等方法研究2021年初河北省石家庄市新冠肺炎(Coronavirus Disease 2019,COVID-19)确诊感染人数情况及疫情的空间分布规律。研究发现,此疫情总持续时间44 d,总病例数869例;在区县尺度此次疫情确诊病例不存在明显的空间自相关性,而小区/村级尺度具有显著的空间自相关特征Moran′s I指数为0.35(p=0.0001,z=10.5);热点分析结果发现在区县尺度只存在于藁城区热点区域,小区/村级尺度的热点主要集中在藁城区小果庄村及其周边村庄。由此可见,有效的应急防控措施使本次疫情并未出现大规模扩散。     

利用区域人群流动和新兴交通数据支持疫情防控

在传染病疫情早期,对出现疫情的地区进行及时管控、防止疫情跨区域传播,对于减少感染量、减轻疫区应对和救治压力、保障疫情期间社会经济平稳具有重要意义。防止疫情跨区域传播的前提是掌握现有病例在区域中的当前空间分布和预期空间分布。目前常用的人群流动数据仅能提供人群的长期驻留地点,而不能提供短期驻留地或者乘坐的交通工具信息,其对流动人群实际带来的疫情传播风险分布表征有一定的局限性。因此,有必要引入电子地图路径规划、列车班次数据等详尽的互联网交通数据,将人群的实际路径纳入对区域疫情分布的考量中。基于人群流动和交通信息,提出了使用时序分析和路径推断的区域疫情风险扩散分析和交通管制支持框架,以期提高应对传染病疫情的区域空间治理能力。在历史人群流动与现有病例分布的基础上,引入公路、铁路路径参数来推断流动人群对途经地区疫情的影响,以疫情初期的病例分布、人群流动和交通情况为例,对该方法进行了分析验证。结果表明,引入路径途经点参数能够明显提高利用人群流动数据拟合疫情空间分布的准确性。     

交通分析区尺度上的COVID-19时空扩散推估方法：以武汉市为例

现有的流行病学模型大多是通过对统计数据进行拟合,实现对患病人数的推估,较少考虑细粒度空间人群移动交互对时空扩散特征的直接作用。将空间交互特征融入流行病学模型,提出了基于手机用户空间交互数据的新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)时空扩散推估方法,并对2019-12—2020-03武汉市COVID-19患病人数以及时空扩散过程进行推估。研究结果表明,该方法能有效推估出每天的疫情新增交通分析区,能够完全覆盖了有疫情公告的交通分析区,且存在疫情公告的交通分析区占所推估交通分析区的72.7%;2020-02-18后的累计推估患者结果与官方公布患者总量吻合得非常好,差距约为5.6%,间接验证了前期推估的合理性。由此得出,该方法能比较有效地推估细粒度空间之间的传染病传播,对正确认识细粒度空间下人群交互对传染病时空扩散的影响机制,增强宏观流行病学模型的空间可解释性具有一定的科学意义。     

一种空间权重矩阵的优化方法

在地理学空间自相关的分析中,权重矩阵对整个分析结果有着较大影响。常见的权重矩阵,例如车矩阵、皇后矩阵、距离权重矩阵和k-邻近矩阵,都有各自的优势和缺点。提出了一种基于长度面积比例的空间权重矩阵（ratio of length and area,RLA）,并以近年来危害最大的几种传染病之一——病毒性肝炎在中国大陆各省份的发病率为例进行了实验分析。实验结果表明,RLA矩阵能够很好地实现空间权重矩阵的基本功能,是常见的车矩阵的一种更为广义的定义,并且可以更加自由地实现空间自相关的分析。利用本空间权重矩阵能够更好地模拟不同地理单元之间的邻接关系,为流行病的预防提供支持。     

COVID-19病例活动知识图谱构建——以郑州市为例

目前,随着全球新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)病例数量不断增加,疫情时空传播过程变得越来越复杂。传统的传播过程研究主要是在宏观上研究传染病的整体传播规律或趋势,不能在个体层面分析具体病例之间的传播关系,无法精准定位疫情传播路径,很难支持传染病的精准防控,亟需兼顾时空和语义特征研究传染病传播过程。首先在解析COVID-19病例数据基础上,利用知识图谱技术提出了构建适应多样化描述方式的COVID-19病例活动知识图谱;然后从传播事件角度设计了COVID-19病例活动知识图谱本体规则,完成了模式层的构建;并以流行病调查数据为基础,对病例数据进行解析、事件实体识别和数据存储,完成了数据层的构建;最后,通过图数据库和B/S端构建原型系统进行实验验证。结果表明,通过COVID-19病例活动知识图谱对传播过程推理、关键节点分析和活动轨迹回溯等层面进行验证,方法较为有效,且具有一定可行性。     

空间碎片轨道协方差传播及其动态校正

轨道误差传播研究在空间碰撞风险分析、任务规划等空间态势感知领域具有重要作用。轨道误差常用误差协方差矩阵表达,其传播方式主要有线性传播模型与非线性传播模型两种。线性传播模型通过状态转移矩阵外推初始协方差矩阵,计算快速,但因将高度非线性化的轨道动力学问题线性化描述,导致传播精度随时间快速降低。非线性传播模型精度高但计算慢,难以进行大规模碎片群的轨道误差传播。在轨道误差传播特性分析的基础上,提出了一种获得较为真实的空间碎片轨道预报误差的方法,分3步进行:初始协方差矩阵的构建、初始轨道协方差线性传播以及基于实测数据对轨道预报协方差的动态校正。经大量案例统计分析,结果表明,校正后的轨道预报协方差,相较于线性传播结果,精度提高了60%以上,可服务于空间碰撞风险分析等高精度空间任务。     

空间权重矩阵对空间自相关的影响分析——以我国肾综合征出血热疾病为例

应用空间自相关统计方法,分析了2008年我国肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病率的空间分布。采用多种权重度量计算了全局和局部两种相关性指数,分析了自相关数值对空间权重矩阵的依赖性。分析结果表明：①空间距离矩阵比空间邻接矩阵能更好地度量HFRS的空间分布;②使用空间距离矩阵时,当距离阈值500km〈δ〈800km时,全国发病率数据显示出显著的空间自相关性;③从局域上看,吉林省高值显著聚集,新疆、西藏、青海、广西和海南省自身低值被高值包围聚集显著。     

顾及空间异质性的温州市COVID-19疫情预测

结合COVID-19实际传播规律,利用温州市COVID-19确诊病例数据、行政区划与人口统计数据构建了区县级LSEIR修正模型,进一步顾及空间异质性加权融合各区县预测结果,以预测温州市整体疫情趋势。结果表明提出的LSEIR修正模型参数求解结果与传染病动力学模型参数物理意义相符,预测温州市感染人群将于2020-01-26达到峰值,与公布的实际情况一致。以感染人数和新增移出人数同时为0时刻作为疫情拐点,预测3月1日为温州市疫情拐点。本方法能够较准确地预测温州市及市内各区县COVID-19感染人群和移出人群变化趋势,为相关政府部门更好地发现疫情传播规律、分析防控措施有效性和预测疫情发展趋势提供了模型支持与决策服务。     

移动GIS在传染病防控方面的应用——以COVID-19为例

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的出现和暴发流行，给社会、经济及人群健康提出巨大的挑战，已经成为重大公共卫生事件和社会问题。作为一种新发传染病，提早发现、迅速采用有效应对举措，是防止病毒蔓延扩散的重要环节。地理信息系统（GIS）在传染病的控制、预防、预警中有举足轻重的地位，移动GIS（Mobile GIS）作为GIS技术的发展，进一步提高了我国卫生部门应对突发传染病的能力。本文以COVID-19防控为例，重点介绍了移动GIS技术在传染病防控中的应用。     

地理信息系统(GIS)在新发H7N9禽流感防控中的应用

通过对H7N9禽流感防控研究的归纳,总结了目前GIS技术在新发H7N9禽流感疫情的时空分布、流行规律、影响因素和风险评估等方面的应用研究,揭示了GIS技术在疫情防控中发挥的重要作用,为其他传染病特别是新发传染病的防控研究提供了借鉴。     

A Network Model for Dispersion of Communicable Diseases

The spread of communicable diseases through a population is an intrinsic spatial and temporal process. This paper presents an individual‐based analytical framework for modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the disease transmission. The framework specifies a network model structure and six associated parameters. These parameters describe the properties of nodes, the properties of links, and the topology of the network. Through this model structure and associated parameters, this framework allows the representation of discrete individuals, individualized interactions, and interaction patterns in a network of human contact. The explicit representation of the spatial distribution and mobility of individuals in particular facilitates the modeling of spatial heterogeneity in the disease transmission.     

Use of earth observation data for applications in public health

The Earth Observation (EO) data with their advantages in spectral, spatial and temporal resolutions have demonstrated their great value in providing information about many of the components that comprise environmental systems and ecosystems for decades that are crucial to the understating of public health issues. This literature review shows that in conjunction with in situ data collection, EO data have been used to observe, monitor, measure and model many environmental variables that are associated with disease vectors. Furthermore, satellite derived aerosol optical depth has been increasingly employed to estimate ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations, which have been found to associate with various health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. It is suggested that Landsat-like imagery data may provide important data sources to analyse and understand contagious and infectious diseases at the local and regional scales, which are tied to urbanisation and associated impacts on the environment. There is also a great need of data products from coarse resolution imagery, such as those from moderate resolution imaging spectrometer, multiangle imaging spectroradiometer and geostationary operational environmental satellite , to model and characterise infectious diseases at the continental and global scales. The infectious diseases at greater geographical scales have become unprecedentedly significant as global climate change and the process of globalisation intensify. The relationship between infectious diseases and environmental characteristic have been explored by using statistical, geostatistical and physical models, with recent emphasis on the use of machine-learning techniques such as artificial neural networks. Lastly, we suggest that the planned HyspIRI mission is crucial for observing, measuring and modelling environmental variables impacting various diseases as it will improve both spectral resolution and revisit time, thus contributing to better prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases, target intervention and tracking of epidemic events.     

Towards a Better Understanding of Dynamic Interaction Metrics for Wildlife: a Null Model Approach

The ability to measure dynamic interactions, such as attraction or avoidance, is crucial to understanding socio‐spatial behaviors related to territoriality and mating as well as for exploring resource use and the potential spread of infectious epizootic diseases. In spite of the importance of measuring dynamic interactions, it has not been a main research focus in movement pattern analysis. With very few exceptions (see Benhamou et al. 2014), no new metrics have been developed in the past 20 years to accommodate the fundamental shift in the type of animal movement data now being collected and there have been few comparison or otherwise critical studies of existing dynamic interaction metrics (but see Long et al. 2014; Miller 2012). This research borrows from the null model approach commonly used in community ecology to compare six currently used dynamic interaction metrics using data on five brown hyena dyads in Northern Botswana. There was disconcerting variation among the dynamic interaction results depending on which metric and which null model was used, and these results highlight the need for more extensive research on measuring and interpreting dynamic interactions in order to avoid making potentially misleading inferences about socio‐spatial behaviors.     

Emerging and vector-borne diseases: Role of high spatial resolution and hyperspectral images in analyses and forecasts

 Many infectious diseases that are emerging or transmitted by arthropod vectors have a strong link to landscape features. Depending on the source of infection or ecology of the transmitting vector, micro-habitat characteristics at the spatial scale of square meters or less may be important. Recently, satellite images have been used to classify habitats in an attempt to understand associations with infectious diseases. Whether high spatial resolution and hyperspectral (HSRH) images can be useful in studies of such infectious diseases is addressed. The nature of questions that such studies address and the desired accuracy and precision of answers will determine the utility of HSRH data. Need for such data should be based on the goals of the effort. Examples of kinds of questions and applications are discussed. The research implications and public health applications may depend on available analytic tools as well as epidemiological observations. Received: 30 July 2001 / Accepted: 14 October 2001     

Spatial Modeling of the Black Death in Sweden

The purpose of this work is to determine whether spatial modeling can be used to model the spread of the Black Death. The study is limited to models for the propagation of the disease in Sweden in 1350. Geographic data of Swedish water bodies and medieval road networks, historical data on the population in Swedish parishes, including their medieval boundaries, along with historical notes and disease characteristics, were used to build alternative models for spatial distribution. Three different models are presented: one radial, one cost‐based and one combining network analysis and radial propagation. Simulations were made to depict different scenarios on the spread of the disease, as well as the drastic changes in the overall population of Sweden, over a couple of hundred years. For purpose of validation the population decrease estimated in each parish is compared with independent historical documents. Results from model scenarios are visualized in maps of propagation, animated video sequences and a web map service. Our analyses clearly demonstrate the power of spatial analysis and geographic information systems to describe, model and visualize epidemiologic processes in space and time.     

Design and implementation of a Space-Time Intelligence System for disease surveillance

Modeling chronic and infectious diseases entails tracking and describing individuals and their attributes (such as disease status, date of diagnosis, risk factors and so on) as they move and change through space and time. Using Geographic Information Systems, researchers can model, visualize and query spatial data, but their ability to address time has been limited by the lack of temporal referencing in the underlying data structures. In this paper, we discuss issues in designing data structures, indexing, and queries for spatio-temporal data within the context of health surveillance. We describe a space-time object model that treats modeled individuals as a chain of linked observations comprised of an ID, space-time coordinate, and time-referenced attributes. Movement models for these modeled individuals are functions that may be simple (e.g. linear, using vector representation) or more complex. We present several spatial, temporal, spatio-temporal and epidemiological queries emergent from the data model. We demonstrate this approach in a representative application, a simulation of the spread of influenza in a hospital ward.This research was supported by grant R44ES010220 from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) and by grants R01CA092669 and R01CA96002 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI). The content of this paper does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIEHS or the NCI.     

城市轨道交通盾构隧道病害空间分布特征量化研究

随着地铁的不断建设与投入使用,我国正在逐步进入地铁运营养护期,地铁病害检测与运营养护也逐渐得到重视。随着地铁运营年限的增加,病害也呈现加重趋势。通过三维激光扫描技术获取隧道病害全面信息,利用空间自相关性分析地铁隧道病害的地理空间分布特征,对于认识病害形成机理,防治病害具有重要意义。本文以某地铁隧道通过三维激光扫描所获得的水平收敛数据为基础,利用空间自相关分析法定量分析了病害在地理空间上的分布特征,以及与周边水文地质环境的关系。结果表明,隧道病害在地理空间分布上呈现显著的空间正相关与空间集聚特性,且病害严重区与隧道周边水文地质环境密切相关。本文结果为隧道病害地理空间分布特征研究、认识病害分布规律及后期病害治理提供了有效依据。