HUBEX区域资料同化系统

介绍HUBEX区域资料同化系统。这个系统采用6 h周期的间歇资料同化方法, 利用全球粗网格分析场资料, 形成冷启动的初估场和同化模式的边界条件。系统还包括资料质量控制、σ面最优插值客观分析、张弛逼近 (Nudging) 初值化、中尺度同化模式预报和后处理等部分, 对来自全球通讯系统、HUBEX加密观测的资料和国家卫星气象中心的导风资料进行同化。最后, 用1998年6月24~28日长江流域的暴雨过程对这个资料同化系统进行测试。     

大气数据同化方法的研究与应用进展

简要介绍了大气数据同化的基本思想与方法，阐述了松弛逼近法、Kalman滤波和变分约束法三种大气数据同化方法研究状况和应用进展情况。     

雷达反射率资料的三维变分同化研究

应用天气研究和预报模式(WRF)三维变分系统中一种新的雷达反射率资料间接同化方法来进行反射率资料的三维变分同化研究,评估雷达反射率资料对夏季短时定量降水预报的作用.该方法不直接同化雷达反射率资料,而是同化由反射率资料反演出的雨水和估计的水汽.以2009年夏季北京地区发生的4次强降水过程为例,考察了北京市气象局业务运行的快速更新循环同化预报系统对京津冀地区雷达网的雷达反射率资料的同化性能以及雷达反射率资料和径向风资料同时同化的效果.数值试验结果表明:(1)同化反演雨水或水汽都能改善降水预报,但同化反演水汽对降水预报效果的改善起了更重要的作用;(2)同化反射率资料能极大地提高短时降水预报的效果,其稳定的正面效果可以延伸到6h的预报时效,而同化径向风资料不能得到稳定的正效果;(3)同化雷达资料时,应用快速更新循环同化预报系统是提高短时定量降水预报的一个有效途径.     

Application of FY-2C Cloud Drift Winds in a Mesoscale Numerical Model

Statistical tests and error analysis of cloud drift winds(CDWs) from the FY-2C satellite were made by using radiosonde observations.According to the error characteristics of the CDW,a bias correction using the thermal wind theory was applied in the data quality control.The CDW data were then assimilated into the GRAPES-meso model via the GRAPES-3DVar.A torrential rain event that occurred in northwestern China during 1-2 July 2005 was simulated.The results indicate that the CDW data were mainly distribute...     

SVD-En3DVar方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料 II. 实际资料试验

文章的第Ⅰ部分(徐道生等,2011)将基于SVD (singular value decomposition)技术和预报集合的三维变分同化方法(SVD-En3DVar)用于同化模拟的雷达速度观测资料,试验表明,通过3DVar (three-dimensional variational technique)方法产生预报...     

Contrasting the impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 10 and IOP 1

Summary The nudging assimilation scheme described in the companion paper by Brill et al. is applied to study oceanic cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 10 on 27–28 February 1986. A 36-h control simulation statically initialized from 0000 UTC 27 February 1986 data moves the cyclone too far north and east in the 12-h period of most rapid deepening limiting the usefulness of the simulation for diagnostic study. The use of nudging to dynamically assimilate special 3-h and routine 12-h rawindsonde and dropsonde data into the model during the entire 36-h forecast period failed to deepen the cyclone as it moved northeast off the Atlantic seaboard beyond the area covered 3-h by sounding data. Subjectively analyzed mean sea-level pressures (MSLP) were included in the data base to allow the model to nudge toward 3-h surface pressure analyses extended to cover the region of cyclogenesis over the ocean. The assimilation of 3-h surface data over the ocean is insufficient to produce a realistic simulation of cyclogenesis. This result motivated the use of the nudging technique to assimilate surface pressure and upper air data over land during the 12-h pre-cyclogenetic period (i.e. dynamic initialization) and compare the subsequent 24-h simulation with one initialized statically at the same synoptic time.Dynamic initialization produced the best simulation of the occanic cyclone based upon the standard statistical scores and positions of the MSLP minima. This simulation is used to diagnose differences between cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 1 and IOP 10. Isentropic analyses and vertical cross sections are derived from the model simulations and are used to contrast the strength of the upper tropospheric forcing and the low-level static stability associated with each case. The results of the diagnostic analyses reveal that stronger surface response (based upon MSLP minima) to weaker upper-level forcing during GALEIOP 10 (compared with GALEIOP 1) was associated with differences in the lower tropospheric static stability and thermal advection patterns and their interaction with upper tropospheric features.With 19 Figures     

Improved ENSO Forecasts by Assimilating Sea Surface Temperature Observations into an Intermediate Coupled Model

A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models (ICMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984–2003 and the period 1997–2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.     

A comparison of two methods for the assimilation of altimeter data into a shallow-water model

Two simple methods for assimilating ocean surface pressure data into a three-layer adiabatic primitive equation model are tested and compared using a twin-experiment approach. One of the methods is based on a recently presented direct insertion scheme using a quasi-geostrophic model. The method explicitly avoids making changes to the potential vorticity fields in the lower layers and the vertical current structure after assimilation is determined by this criterion. The modification required for a primitive equation framework are discussed and a comparison is made with the more familiar ‘nudging’ method of assimilation. We use root mean square errors to quantify the response of the model to the assimilation of a single complete surface pressure field and also to repeated or intermittent data available every 20 days for a period of 1 year. The two methods are almost equally effective in the short term, although the direct insertion scheme appears to be more effective in the longer term. It is suggested that this is because insertion maintains a geostrophic balance at all levels and thus avoids the generation of internal gravity waves which are needed when nudging is used to restore geostrophic currents in the deeper layers.     

集合均方根滤波同化地面自动站资料的技术研究

模式地形与观测站地形高度差异一直是地面资料同化面临的棘手问题,合理的同化方案能够将地面自动站资料有效的同化到中尺度数值模式中。本文首先采用Guo et al.(2002)的方案实现了在WRF模式中应用集合Kalman滤波方法同化地面自动站资料;然后对方案进行调整,对10 m高度风场、2 m高度位温、2 m高度露点和地表气压进行同化。通过均方根误差分析,模拟结果和同化增量分析来确定集合平方根滤波(EnSRF)同化地面自动站资料的有效性,并进行敏感性试验分析检验模式对各要素物理量的响应状况。结果表明:在EnSRF同化系统中应用Guo et al.(2002)的方案将地面自动站资料进行同化到数值模式中,能够部分改善模拟结果;地面观测资料(温度、湿度、风场、地表气压)中各物理量分别同化到数值模式都能影响18小时降水预报,但各物理量所起作用大小不同,其中对结果影响最大的是露点;使用位温、露点分别代替温度、比湿进行同化模拟效果更好,对自动站资料的同化也更加有效。     

Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.     

The use of successive dynamic initialization by nudging to simulate cyclogenesis during GALE IOP 1

Summary Synoptic/diagnostic case studies have increasingly come to rely on numerical simulations started from some initial state after which the model generated fields receive no further information from observed data. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of a dynamic data assimilation technique based on nudging to create a dynamically consistent high-resolution four-dimensional data set that can be used for synoptic diagnostic studies. The nudging technique is applied in the Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (GMASS) using the 3-h radiosonde data collected during GALE IOP 1. A unique aspect of this application is nudging toward data analyses for which the areal coverage shifts with time. One of the two nudging simulations assimilates surface pressure in addition to the temperature, mixing ratio, and wind components. The nudging values are determined by linear interpolation between 3-h observation times. Assuming a linear variation of the assimilated value in time leads to estimates of the nudging coefficients which take into account the accuracy of the observations.Both nudging simulations are more accurate in terms of S hand root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores than a control sunulation without successive initialization. The nudging simulation with surface pressure is more accurate than the nudging simulation without surface pressure assimilation for this case. The simulation with surface pressure nudging captures the surface cyclogenesis and the associated strong rise-fall couplet in the 500 hPa height field. It also exhibits the strongest ageostrophic flow and exit region vertical circulation associated with a jet streak on the western side of the intensifying upper-level trough.The data sets made possible by the dynamic assimilation/ simulation cycles are dynamically consistent, have high spatial and temporal resolution and are ideally suited for diagnostic studies. Examples presented include the evolution of the ageostrophic flow associated with the exit region of an upper-level jet propagating toward the base of an intensifying trough with increasing cyclonic curvature of the flow. The nudging simulation with surface pressure provides the resolution and accuracy required to depict the rapid transformation (within a 12-h period) of the exit region ageostrophic flow from predominantly cross contour to along contour as the jet streak approaches the base of the trough.With 19 Figures     

Use of Microwave Radiances from Metop-C and Fengyun-3 C/DSatellites for a Northern European Limited-areaData Assimilation System

正1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsv?gen 17, 60361 Norrk?ping, Sweden2Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Henrik Mohns Plass 1, 0371 Oslo, Norway     

GRAPES的新初始化方案

四维变分同化由于引入预报模式作为一项约束,理论上它的分析场已经具有较好的平衡性,但实施时还会有诸多因重力波导致的高频振荡过程,因此,四维变分同化(4DVar)分析仍需要初始化。文中描述了GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统(GRAPES-4DVar)的新初始化方案的科学设计、公式演绎以及试验结果。GRAPES-4DVar的新初始化方案采用数字滤波方案作为代价函数的一项约束控制重力波引发的不平衡结构,约束强加在分析增量上与极小化迭代过程同步进行。新的初始化方案是变分同化系统的一部分,数字滤波的积分时间与4DVar的同化时间窗一致,不会对4DVar产生额外的计算资源消耗;并能适应长时间窗的同化,不会因为时间窗的延长而削弱慢波过程。新初始化方案中,模式轨迹的光滑程度可在变分同化中通过重力波控制项的权重系数方便控制。GRAPES全球四维变分同化的理想和循环同化批量试验都表明,在四维变分同化中,重力波的控制依然非常重要,具有初始化的GRAPES试验,无论分析还是预报技巧都较无初始化的有明显优势。与以前分析和滤波独立实施的旧初始化方案相比,新方案的分析和预报效果略优,同时有效地节省循环同化系统的运行时间,这对四维变分同化来说非常重要。     

Impact of assimilation of INSAT-3D retrieved atmospheric motion vectors on short-range forecast of summer monsoon 2014 over the South Asian region

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system are used in this study to assimilate the INSAT-3D, a recently launched Indian geostationary meteorological satellite derived from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) over the South Asian region during peak Indian summer monsoon month (i.e., July 2014). A total of four experiments were performed daily with and without assimilation of INSAT-3D-derived AMVs and the other AMVs available through Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for the entire month of July 2014. Before assimilating these newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs in the numerical model, a preliminary evaluation of these AMVs is performed with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final model analyses. The preliminary validation results show that root-mean-square vector difference (RMSVD) for INSAT-3D AMVs is ～3.95, 6.66, and 5.65 ms^?1 at low, mid, and high levels, respectively, and slightly more RMSVDs are noticed in GTS AMVs (～4.0, 8.01, and 6.43 ms^?1 at low, mid, and high levels, respectively). The assimilation of AMVs has improved the WRF model of produced wind speed, temperature, and moisture analyses as well as subsequent model forecasts over the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Australia, and South Africa. Slightly more improvements are noticed in the experiment where only the INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated compared to the experiment where only GTS AMVs are assimilated. The results also show improvement in rainfall predictions over the Indian region after AMV assimilation. Overall, the assimilation of INSAT-3D AMVs improved the WRF model short-range predictions over the South Asian region as compared to control experiments.     

极轨卫星高层通道在GRAPES同化系统中的应用

针对GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)模式三维变分系统高层背景场温湿廓线外推方案的局限性,提出以气候垂直廓线重新构造高层温湿垂直结构,以减小外推方案的偏差。首先采用一维变分同化系统,展开模拟实验:分析目前模式中使用的外推方案误差及其对反演结果的影响,利用高层大气气候廓线构造垂直结构并分析同化偏差。最后,运用GRAPES全球分析预报系统进行同化实验并分析改进程度。结果显示:模拟研究表明采用高层背景场温湿廓线外推方案与实际观测相比最大偏差在1 h Pa附近可达数十度以上,不仅影响平流层,而且对对流层也有影响;用气候温度数据修正GRAPES高层温度数据,可以减少50%以上的偏差,证明了用气候值高层数据优化现行GRAPES模式中同化系统高层插值方案的可行性。全球GRAPES三维变分同化试验结果显示,改进方案不仅显著的改善平流层分析质量,对对流层中高层也有改进。     

华北地区地基GPS天顶总延迟观测的质量控制和同化应用研究

地基GPS天顶总延迟由于其解算误差来源少于目前广泛应用的可降水量资料,其同化应用将会为数值预报初值场更好地提供大气信息。面向同化应用的天顶总延迟观测质量控制方案的研发将会有效推进该资料在中国数值预报中的广泛应用。基于2013-2014年华北地区天顶总延迟观测资料,发展了一套针对数值预报同化应用的天顶总延迟观测质量控制方案。该方案从测站稳定性和解算精度、离群值、系统偏差及标准差等考察点切入,从不同角度检查和标记出致使观测序列统计特性偏离高斯分布特征的样本。质量控制后序列统计特征量更接近三维变分系统对观测资料的性质假设,表明了所建立质量控制方案的合理性。基于北京市气象局数值预报业务系统BJ-RUC开展了连续11 d的快速更新循环预报试验。评估结果表明：同化质控后天顶总延迟试验的降水预报效果明显优于同化未质控天顶总延迟试验,表明所建立质量控制方案的有效性。同化质控后天顶总延迟试验的降水预报效果优于未同化GPS资料试验,表明天顶总延迟资料的同化应用可以有效提升预报系统的降水预报效果,特别是在无探空资料参加同化的预报时次;同化质控后天顶总延迟资料试验的降水预报效果也优于同化可降水量的试验,表明使用天顶总延迟资料代替可降水量资料在数值预报业务中开展同化应用是可行的。在天顶总延迟观测质量控制方案研发和同化应用得到了一些有意义的结果,有助于推进该观测资料在数值预报科研和业务中的应用,为提升预报性能提供技术支撑。     

Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS

This study introduces the operational data assimilation (DA) system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) to the numerical weather prediction community. Its development history and performance are addressed with experimental illustrations and the authors’ previously published studies. Milestones in skill improvements include the initial operational implementation of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar), the ingestion of additional satellite observations, and changing the DA scheme to a hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational DA using forecasts from an ensemble based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). In the hybrid system, determining the relative contribution of the ensemble-based covariance to the resultant analysis is crucial, particularly for moisture variables including a variety of horizontal scale spectra. Modifications to the humidity control variable, partial rather than full recentering of the ensemble for humidity further improves moisture analysis, and the inclusion of more radiance observations with higher-level peaking channels have significant impacts on stratosphere temperature and wind performance. Recent update of the operational hybrid DA system relative to the previous 3DVar system is described for detailed improvements with interpretation.     

A STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF FY-2E CLOUD DRIFT WIND HEIGHT REASSIGNMENT IN NUMERICAL FORECAST OF TYPHOON CHANTHU (1003) TRACK

In this paper, we first analyzed cloud drift wind(CDW) data distribution in the vertical direction, and then reassigned the height of every CDW in the research domain in terms of background information, and finally, conducted contrast numerical experiments of assimilating the CDW data before and after reassignment to examine the impacts on the forecast of the track of Typhoon Chanthu(1003) from 00:00(Coordinated Universal Time) 21 July to 00:00 UTC23 July, 2010. The analysis results of the CDW data indicate that the number of CDWs is mainly distributed in the midand upper-troposphere above 500 h Pa, with the maximum number at about 300 h Pa. The height reassigning method mentioned in this work may update the height effectively, and the CDW data are distributed reasonably and no obvious contradiction occurs in the horizontal direction after height reassignment. After assimilating the height-reassigned CDW data, especially the water vapor CDW data, the initial wind field around Typhoon Chanthu(1003) became more reasonable, and then the steering current leading the typhoon to move to the correct location became stronger. As a result, the numerical track predictions are improved.     

Ocean Data Assimilation Using Intermittent Analyses and Continuous Model Error Correction

A new data insertion approach is applied to the Derber and Rosati ocean data assimilation(ODA) system,a system that uses a variational scheme to analyze ocean temperature and provide ocean model corrections continuously.Utilizing the same analysis component as the original system,the new approach conducts analyses to derive model corrections intermittently at once-daily intervals.A technique similar to the Incremental Analysis Update(IAU) method of Bloom et al.is applied to incorporate the corrections into the model gradually and continuously.This approach is computationally more economical than the original.A 13-year global ocean analysis from 1986 to 1998 is produced using this new approach and compared with an analysis based on the original one.An examination of both analyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean shows that they have qualitatively similar annual and interannual temperature variability.Howerver,the new approach produces smoother monthly analyses.Moreover,compared to the independent observations from current meters,the new equatorial currents are significantly better than the original analyses,not only in maintaining the mean state but also in capturing the annual and interannual variations.     

GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统极小化算法预调节

在进行多次外循环更新的增量分析框架下,前一次极小化迭代过程中产生的信息可提供给下一次极小化做预调节。该文在GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统中对极小化算法——L-BFGS算法实施了这种预调节,通过全观测的个例试验和批量试验进行评估,发现进行预调节后L-BFGS算法的收敛效率得到明显提高,而且在1个月的循环试验中表现十分稳定。该工作可以帮助GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统有效减少极小化的迭代次数,有利于满足业务化运行的时效要求。另外,间隔6 h和间隔24 h的两次4DVar分析对应的海森矩阵变化不大,因此,前一时刻极小化过程产生的信息提供给后一时刻的极小化进行预调节也有一定效果。