Annual Mass Balance of Blue Glacier, USA: 1955–97

Mass changes of Blue Glacier, USA are calculated from topographic maps made from vertical aerial photography in late summer of 1939, 1952, 1957, and 1987, along with laser altimetry flown in June 1996. Changes in elevation between maps were adjusted for seasonal variations in the snow cover, and to account for the ablation between the date of photography and 1 October. Topography obtained from the laser altimetry was adjusted for snow thickness and glacier motion to estimate topography of 1 October 1995. The mass of Blue Glacier has changed less than 7 m (water equivalent) during this 56 year period which is minor compared with other glaciers in the region and elsewhere in the world. Glacier-average annual mass balances, beginning in 1956, have been calculated either from stake measurements and probing of late-season snow, or from a regression analysis using late-season measurements of the equilibrium line altitude. A comparison with the changes derived from surface maps shows values obtained from field measurements are too positive by about 0.4 m a^?1 , indicating that considerable caution is needed when interpreting time series of mass balance. Two alternative time series of mass balance consistent with the long-term mass changes are created by making simple adjustments: (1) a single constant is subtracted from each value so that the series is consistent with the 1957–95 mass change; (2) one constant is subtracted from each value over 1957–87 and another is subtracted from each value over 1987-95 so that the series is consistent with both the 1957–87 and 1987–95 mass changes. The mass balance of Blue Glacier was generally positive until the mid-1970s and negative since. The fluctuations of mass balance closely resemble those of snowfall on the glacier as estimated from the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation. The climate in western Washington was cooler and wetter during the decade before the mid-1970s, but the trend since has been towards warmer and drier conditions.     

Mechanism and effects of the increase in winter temperatures in the Arctic region on cold winters in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China for the period 1961–2018

With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily in-creasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corre-sponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Hei-longjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1) during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2) Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the de-crease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang.     

Study of annual mass balance(2011–2013) of Rikha Samba Glacier,Hidden Valley,Mustang, Nepal

Although Himalayan glaciers are of particular interest in terms of future water supplies, regional climate changes, and sea-level rises, little is known about them due to lack of reliable and consistent data. There is a need for monitoring these glaciers to bridge this knowledge gap and to provide field measurements necessary to calibrate and validate the results from different remote sensing operations. Therefore, glaciological observations have been carried out by the Cryosphere Monitoring Project(CMP) since September 2011 on Rikha Samba Glacier in Hidden valley, Mustang district in western Nepal in order to study its annual mass balance. This paper presents the first results of that study. There are 10 glaciers in Hidden Valley, named G1, G2, G3, up to G10. Of these, G5 is the Rikha Samba Glacier, which has the largest area(5.37 km2) in this valley and the highest and lowest altitudes(6,476 and 5,392 m a.s.l., respectively). The glacier mass balance discussed in this paper was calculated using the glaciological method and the equilibrium line altitude(ELA). The glacier showed a negative annual point mass balance along the longitudinal profile of its lower part from September 10, 2011 to October 3, 2012. Stake measurements from October 4, 2012 to September 30, 2013 indicated a negative areal average of annual mass balance-0.088±0.019 m w.e. for the whole glacier. Based on these observations, the ELA of the Rikha Samba Glacier is estimated at 5,800 m a.s.l. in 2013. This negative balance may be due to rising air temperatures in the region, which have been incrementally rising since 1980 accompanied by little or no significant increase in precipitation in that period. The negative mass balance confirms the general shrinking trend of the glacier.     

A Small Glacier as an Index of Regional Mass Balance: Baby Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, 1959–1992

Baby Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, N.W.T., Canada is a small (0.6 km²), high-latitude (79°N), high-altitude (700–1200 m) glacier with a mass balance record extending from 1959–60 to the present. The record demonstrates shrinkage of the glacier, but a statistically significant trend is not evident. Correlations are strong between the mass balance of Baby Glacier and that of the nearby and much larger White Glacier, and also those of even larger, more distant glaciers. Thus programmes of measurement on small, simple ice bodies such as Baby Glacier can be representative of a large region. However, inter-annual changes are more accentuated for Baby Glacier. Baby Glacier does not meet all of the usual criteria for a representative glacier, but it straddles the regional equilibrium zone, a fact which helps to offset the disadvantages of its small size and limited altitudinal range. The equilibrium zone deserves to be an important focus for studies of high-arctic mass balance, with the aim of facilitating future measurement programmes which will rely on satellite remote sensing.     

乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川2009年出现物质正平衡

自1997年以来,乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融极为强烈,物质平衡呈大幅度亏损,连续12 a都处于强负平衡状态,平均物质平衡达-708 mm,且在2008年物质平衡达到历史最低值-999 mm,然而2009年出现了物质正平衡,物质平衡63 mm,年际变化量达1 062 mm。以2008-2009年物质平衡实测资料为基础,根据该地区的气温和降水资料分析,结果表明,造成这种现象的主要原因是夏季气温（5～8月）的降低,较2008年低1.8℃,致使冰川消融期的开始时间推迟至了7月份,结束时间提前到8月份,大大削弱了冰川的消融强度,其次是2005年以来逐渐增多的连续性降水,增加了冰川的积累量。     

The Impact Of Extreme Summer Melt on Net Accumulation of an Avalanche Fed Glacier,as Determined by Ground‐Penetrating Radar

Glacier mass balance is more sensitive to warming than cooling, but feedbacks related to the exposure of previously buried firn and ice in very warm years is not generally considered in sensitivity studies. A ground‐penetrating radar survey in the accumulation area of Rolleston Glacier, New Zealand shows that five years of previous net accumulation was removed by melt from parts of the glacier above the long‐term equilibrium line altitude during a single negative mass balance year. Rolleston Glacier receives a large amount of accumulation from snow avalanches, which may temporarily buffer it from climate warming by providing additional mass that has accumulated at higher elevations, effectively increasing the elevation range of the glacier. However, glaciers reliant on avalanche input may have high sensitivity to climatic variations because the extra mass is concentrated on a small part of the glacier, and small variations in avalanche input could have a large impact on overall glacier accumulation. Further research is needed to better estimate the amount and spatial distribution of accumulation by avalanche in order to quantify the climate sensitivity of small avalanche‐fed glaciers.     

中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应——以乌源1号冰川和帕隆94号冰川为例

为认识全球变暖背景下中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应，本研究以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和藏东南帕隆94号冰川为例，结合大西沟与察隅站气象资料，对1980 — 2015年两条冰川的物质平衡变化特征及差异进行了分析。结果表明：36 a来乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质平衡总体上均呈下降趋势，累积物质平衡达-17102与-8159 mm w.e.，相当于冰川厚度减薄19与9.01 m，且分别于1996、2004年左右发生突变。同期两条冰川所处区域年均温呈显著上升趋势，而降水量却表现出不同的变化态势；二者年内气温分配相仿，但降水分配差异较大。初步分析认为气温上升是导致乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质亏损的主要原因，冰川区气温和降水变化幅度的差异和地性因子（坡度、冰川面积）的不同使得乌源1号冰川对气候变化响应的敏感性高于帕隆94号冰川，由于目前海洋性冰川物质平衡监测时段相对较短，为深入研究中国西部冰川物质平衡变化及过程仍需加强对冰川的持续观测。     

60-year changes and mechanisms of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan of China,Central Asia

Worldwide examination of glacier change is based on detailed observations from only a small number of glaciers. The ground-based detailed individual glacier monitoring is of strong need and extremely important in both regional and global scales. A long-term integrated multi-level monitoring has been carried out on Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia since 1959 by the Tianshan Glaciological Station, Chinese Acamedey of Sciences (CAS), and the glaciological datasets promise to be the best in China. The boundaries of all glacier zones moved up, resulting in a shrunk accumulation area. The stratigraphy features of the snowpack on the glacier were found to be significantly altered by climate warming. Mass balances of UG1 show accelerated mass loss since 1960, which were attributed to three mechanisms. The glacier has been contracting at an accelerated rate since 1962, resulting in a total reduction of 0.37 km² or 19.3% from 1962 to 2018. Glacier runoff measured at the UG1 hydrometeorological station demonstrates a significant increase from 1959 to 2018 with a large interannual fluctuation, which is inversely correlated with the glacier's mass balance. This study analyzes on the changes in glacier zones, mass balance, area and length, and streamflow in the nival glacial catchment over the past 60 years. It provides critical insight into the processes and mechanisms of glacier recession in response to climate change. The results are not only representative of those glaciers in the Tianshan mountains, but also for the continental-type throughout the world. The direct observation data form an essential basis for evaluating mountain glacier changes and the impact of glacier shrinkage on water resources in the interior drainage rivers within the vast arid and semi-arid land in northwestern China as well as Central Asia.     

西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展

西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论：(1) 西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过“突变型”升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2) 西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3) 西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4) 西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大 (50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。     

Seasonal and long-term sea level variability in the marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean

One of the parameters useful for monitoring large-scale climate variability in the Arctic Ocean is sea level. It integrates virtually all static and dynamic processes in the hydrosphere and atmosphere of the Arctic. Previously unavailable mean monthly sea level data at 44 coastal and island stations in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas covering years from 1950 to 1990 were used to analyse seasonal and inter-annual variability. Sea level has a significant annual cycle with an average seasonal amplitude (from peak to peak) in the coastal zone of the Arctic seas on the order of 20 - 30 cm. The analysis of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes has shown that at nearly all stations in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas from the beginning of the 1950s through the end of 1980s there is a positive trend in sea level variability. The main contribution to the sea level rise was in the 1980s; on average for the coastal zone of Siberian shelf the sea level in the 1980s was 5-6 cm higher than in the previous decades. A reasonable agreement between observed decadal mean sea level values and the results of diagnostic model simulations suggests that this rise in the Arctic seas is connected with the reorganization of large-scale circulation of the Arctic Ocean, rather than the regional lowering of the coasts, as has been suggested previously.     

Spatial and temporal transferability of Degree-Day Model and Simplified Energy Balance Model:a case study

Glacier mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation at the glacier surface, is the direct reflection of the local climate regime. Under global warming, the simulation of glacier mass balance at the regional scale has attracted increasing interests. This study selects Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as the testbed for examining the transferability in space and time of two commonly used glacier mass balance simulation models: i.e., the Degree-Day Model(DDM) and the simplified Energy Balance Model(s EBM). Four experiments were carried out for assessing both models’ temporal and spatial transferability. The results show that the spatial transferability of both the DDM and s EBM is strong, whereas the temporal transferability of the DDM is relatively weak. For all four experiments, the overall simulation effect of the s EBM is better than that of the DDM. At the zone around Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), the DDM performed better than the s EBM.Also, the accuracy of parameters, including the lapse rate of air temperature and vertical gradient of precipitation at the glacier surface, is of great significance for improving the spatial transferability of both models.     

Mass balance and area changes of four High Arctic plateau ice caps, 1959–2002

Abstract Small, stagnating ice caps at high latitudes are particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations, especially with regard to changes in ablation season temperature. We conducted mass balance measurements and GPS area surveys on four small High Arctic plateau ice caps from 1999–2002. We compared these measurements with topographic maps and aerial photography from 1959, and with previously published data. Net mass balance (b_n) of Murray Ice Cap was ?0.49 (1999), ?0.29 (2000), ?0.47 (2001), and ?0.29 (2002), all in meters of water equivalent (m w.eq.). The mass balance of nearby Simmons Ice Cap was also negative in 2000 (b_n=?0.40 m w.eq.) and in 2001 (b_n=?0.52 m w.eq.). All four ice caps experienced substantial marginal recession and area reductions of between 30 and 47% since 1959. Overall, these icecaps lost considerable mass since at least 1959, except for a period between the mid‐1960s and mid‐1970s characterized regionally by reduced summer melt, positive mass balance, and ice cap advance. The regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is located, on average, above the summits of the ice caps, indicating that they are remnants of past climatic conditions and out of equilibrium with present climate. The ice caps reached a Holocene maximum and were several times larger during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and their current recession reflects an adjustment to post‐LIA climatic conditions. At current downwasting rates the ice masses on the Hazen Plateau will completely disappear by, or soon after, the mid‐21st century.     

天山乌一号冰川物质平衡特征的统计分析

利用天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的多年观测资料,通过数学统计方法提取主成分,获得影响该冰川物质平衡的主要因素,通过成分矩阵的旋转获得表示冰川物质平衡特征的两个主因子,其中第一主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的常年因子,代表该冰川的多年持续变化方向与趋势,第二主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的年际因子,代表该冰川在平衡年内的物质平衡变化特征。常年因子的持续下降反映了冰川持续后退的现实,年际因子在上世纪80年代中期以后突然强劲上升,实际上是冰川物质平衡水平提高,平衡年内积累量和消融量都增加的表现,清晰地指示了西北地区气候由暖干向暖湿的转型。常年因子是冰川物质平衡变化的主导因子,控制了冰川变化的方向。常年因子具有较好的周期性,以6年周期最为明显,但其形成原因尚不明。年际因子周期性不明显,但可以看出其周期与太阳黑子变化具有相关性,同时受到常年因子的影响。     

Mass Balance Measurements on the Lemon Creek Glacier, Juneau Icefield, Alaska 1953–1998

Annual balance measurements on the Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska conducted by the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) from 1953 through 1998 provide a continuous 46 year record. This is one of the nine American glaciers selected in a global monitoring network during the International Geophysical year, 1957/58. These data have been acquired primarily by employing consistent ground methods, conducted on similar annual dates and calculated using comparable methodology. The results have been until now fairly precise, but of uncertain accuracy. An adjunct comparison of topographic surface maps of the glacier made in 1957 and 32 years later in 1989 provides a rough determination of glacier surface elevation changes which are clearly of less precision than the compilation of annual ground data. Airborne surface profiling in 1995, and global positioning system leveling transects in 1996–1998 update the record of surface elevation changes over the past decade. The mean glacier ice thickness reductions suggested by these methods from 1957–1989, from 1957–1995 and from 1957–1998 are ?13.2 m, ?16.4 m, and ?21.7 m, respectively. It is of interest that the geodetic interpretations agree fairly well with the trend of sequential balances from ground-level stratigraphic measurements. To date, however, the infrequent mapping methods in this study have yielded specific balances averaging between 5 and 11% less than those resulting from our annual on-site glaciological monitoring. For future studies this can be an important factor. The ground data are, therefore, the ones in which we have most confidence. These show cumulative ice losses of ?13.9 m (12.7 m water equivalent w.e.) from 1957–1989, of ?19.0 m (?17.1 m w.e.) from 1957–1995, of ?24.4 m (22 m w.e.) from 1957–1998, and ?24.7 m (22.2 m w.e.) for the total cumulative loss over the full 46 years between 1953 and 1998. Although the balance trend has been increasingly negative it averages ?0.48 m/a in w.e. or 0.52 m of ice loss per year. To refine the reliability of density determinations in this data set the effects of internal accumulation from refrozen meltwater producing diagenetic ice structures in the annual firnpack have been taken into account. An unusual dearth of such structures within the 1997/98 firnpack provided a unique opportunity to facilitate application of the probing technique over broad areas of the nv. This added to our ground truth and verified accuracy of the test-pit measurements used in these long-term mass balance computations. The glacier's continuing negative mass balance has fueled a terminal retreat of 800 m during the 1953–1998 period. The annual balance trend indicates that despite a higher mean elevation and a higher elevation terminus from thinning and retreat, mean annual balance has been strongly negative since 1977 (?0.78 m/a w.e.). Dramatically increased negative mass balances have occurred in the 1990s, with 1996 and 1997 being the only years on record with no retained accumulation since field observations were initiated in the glacier source areas in 1948.     

Long-term variability in Arctic sea surface temperatures

In this study, we used 30 years of an operational sea surface temperature (SST) product, the NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) SST Version 2 dataset, to examine variations in Arctic SSTs during the period December 1981–October 2011. We computed annual SST anomalies and interannual trends in SST variations for the period 1982–2010; during this period, marginal (though statistically significant) increases in SSTs were observed in oceanic regions poleward of 60°N. A warming trend is evident over most of the Arctic region, the Beaufort Sea, the Chuckchi Sea, Hudson Bay, the Labrador Sea, the Iceland Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Bering Strait, etc.; Labrador Sea experienced higher temperature anomalies than those observed in other regions. However, cooling trends were observed in the central Arctic, some parts of Baffin Bay, the Kara Sea (south of Novaya Zemlya), the Laptev Sea, the Siberian Sea, and Fram Strait. The central Arctic region experienced a cooling trend only during 1992–2001; warming trends were observed during 1982–1991 and 2002–2010. We also examined a 30-yr (1982–2011) record of summer season (June–July–August) SST variations and a 29-yr (1982–2010) record of September SST variations, the results of which are discussed.     

Applicability of an ultra-long-range terrestrial laser scanner to monitor the mass balance of Muz Taw Glacier, Sawir Mountains, China

Glacier mass balance is a key component of glacier monitoring programs. Information on the mass balance of Sawir Mountains is poor due to a dearth of in-situ measurements. This paper introduces the applicability of an ultra-long-range terrestrial laser scanner(TLS) to monitor the mass balance of Muz Taw Glacier, Sawir Mountains, China. The Riegl VZ?-6000 TLS is exceptionally well-suited for measuring snowy and icy terrain. Here, we use TLS to create repeated high spatiotemporal resolution DEMs, focusing on the annual mass balance(June 2, 2015 to July 25, 2016). According to TLS-derived high spatial resolution point clouds, the front variation(glacier retreat) of Muz Taw Glacier was 9.3 m. The mean geodetic elevation change was 4.55 m at the ablation area. By comparing with glaciological measurements, the glaciological elevation change of individual stakes and the TLS-derived geodetic elevation change of corresponding points matched closely, and the calculated balance was-3.864±0.378 m w.e.. This data indicates that TLS provides accurate results and is therefore suitable to monitor mass balance evolution of Muz Taw Glacier.     

The second International Symposium on the Arctic Research (ISAR-2): Brief overview

The Arctic and the surrounding region of the sub-Arctic represent a key area for the study of global change because the anthropogenic impact, particularly the rate of warming, is projected to be the greatest in any part of the world due to the complicated feedback processes which occur. This Arctic region has undergone very large changes in recent years due to global warming, and accelerated change is predicted. The rapid changes that are occurring in the Arctic, and that have been the topic of the ISAR-1 and ISAR-2 conferences, manifest themselves at a number of scales. The large scales are Arctic-wide changes in key environmental parameters, which are described in a series of papers in this issue. On a more subtle scale we see changes to species and to biological processes in the Arctic. We hope that readers will enjoy the range of papers published in this issue, and will appreciate that phenomena ranging in scale from global radiation balance to clutch size of birds' eggs are actually all related via the central fact of the present-day Arctic, its high rate of warming.     

过去44年乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡结果及其过程研究

通过1997—2003年度天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的观测结果,分析比较了过去44年间一号冰川物质平衡、累积物质平衡的变化过程,以及反映气候一地形要素和冰川发育条件要素的平衡线高度和冰川积累区比率,认为一号冰川负平衡波动期随时间推移而递增,目前处于其观测历史上物质平衡亏损最为强烈的时期。     

Responses to climatic changes since the Little Ice Age on Maladeta Glacier (Central Pyrenees)

The evolution of Maladeta Glacier (Maladeta massif, central Spanish Pyrenees) since the Little Ice Age maximum is analyzed in this work. The extent of the glacier was mapped into 10 stages using morainic deposits and graphic documents. Climatic data (temperature and precipitation) were reconstructed by using dendroclimatic techniques complemented by recent instrumental records. The results thus obtained confirm the control of the above mentioned climatic factors, particularly annual temperature and winter precipitation, in the evolution of Maladeta Glacier, which has receded from an extent of 152.3 ha in 1820–1830 to 54.5 ha in 2000, a 35.7% reduction in size. The rate of ice wastage has varied during that period, defining several phases of glacial stabilization (1820–1830 to 1857; 1914–1920 to 1934–1935; 1957 to 1981), moderated glacial depletion (1901–1904 to 1914–1920; 1934–1935 to 1957) and marked glacial depletion (1857 to 1901–1904; 1981 to 2000). The evolution of Maladeta Glacier is also in keeping with trends observed from other alpine Mediterranean glaciers, which have experienced a consistent rise in their equilibrium line altitudes during the 19th and 20th centuries as well as associated and prolonged periods of negative mass balance.