三维变分同化中多变量平衡约束设计

在现代变分同化系统中,背景场误差协方差起着决定观测信息的空间分布特征、匹配不同变量间的关系和保证分析增量平衡的作用。基于NMC(National Meteorology Centre)方法,设计了一个新的多变量平衡约束算子:在物理变换中,构建相对湿度和其余控制变量间的平衡约束算子;同时分别采用经验正交函数方法和递归滤波器来模拟控制变量(ψ,χ_u,T_u,h_ru,p_su)^T的垂直误差协方差和水平误差协方差。利用2009年6月2日到8月9日间WRF模式的预报差值场,对新的背景场误差协方差进行模拟分析。单点观测试验表明,新的背景场误差协方差实现了观测信息在干湿变量之间的传递,而且相对湿度具有与温度相似的增量场分布。     

H2释放扰动电离层的数值模拟

由于电离层中分子性离子与电子的复合要比氧离子与电子的复合快得多,因此H₂在电离层高度释放可有效地引起电子的消耗。本文基于一个包括中性气体扩散方程和离子化学反应方程的二维动力学模型,对H₂在电离层高度释放过程进行了数值模拟研究,并分析了不同释放条件下的电子扰动特性。结果表明:1)500 mol H₂释放后,迅速向周围空间扩散,释放中心处的电子密度30 s内下降了近4%,F₂层临界频率下降了1%左右;2)在不同高度处释放H₂时,最大的电子密度相对变化率并不是在峰值高度附近处释放时出现的;3)释放化学物质的量越多,电子密度的扰动幅度也越大,但两者之间并不存在线性关系;4)相同量的H₂在电离层峰值高度处释放,白天的电子密度扰动幅度要大于夜间的扰动幅度。     

江淮之间夏季雨滴谱特征分析

分析了2011—2013年夏季(6—8月)滁州地基雨滴谱观测资料,根据雨强及其随时间的变化将降水分成对流降水和层云降水,分析不同降水类型的雨滴谱特征。结果表明:滁州地区对流降水的质量加权直径D_m和标准化参数lgN_w的平均值分别为1.67 mm和3.91 mm^-1·m^-3,层云降水D_m和lgN_w的平均值分别为1.18 mm和3.57 mm^-1·m^-3,对流降水雨滴平均尺度更大。N_w相比Γ分布参数N₀能更好地反映总数浓度N_t的大小。Γ分布3参数均随雨强的增大而减小,当雨强增长到一定程度时,μ(谱型)和Λ(斜率)趋于常数。研究了μ-Λ关系和Z(反射率因子)-R(雨强)关系。对流降水和层云降水的Z-R关系分别为Z=408R^1.20和Z=301R^1.21。新的Z-R关系和经典Z-R关系(Z=300R^1.40)反演的雨强相比实际观测值均偏小,但新的Z-R关系反演的雨强与实际观测值更接近。     

2009—2010年梅雨锋暴雨雨滴谱特征

2009、2010年夏季利用Parsivel激光降水粒子谱仪在淮南和南京同时观测到两次梅雨锋暴雨过程,获得了3 617个雨滴谱样本资料。采用阶矩法对Gamma函数进行拟合,分析了梅雨锋暴雨降水微结构特征。结果表明:主雨带和雨带边缘的雨滴谱存在明显差别,处于主雨带中的降水粒子尺度明显大于雨带边缘的粒子尺度;梅雨锋暴雨过程中0.25 mm<D≤1.0 mm的粒子所占比例最大,但对于雨强贡献最大的则是1.0 mm<D≤2.0 mm的粒子;雨滴谱谱型以双峰型为主,几乎不存在无峰型;与其他微结构特征量不同的是,雨滴谱峰值直径D_p随着雨强的增大先增加后减小,而雨滴谱分布参数N₀、μ、λ则随着雨强的增大而一直减小,其中μ-λ间存在较好的二项式函数关系;梅雨锋暴雨的Z-R关系为Z=212R^1.38。     

线状中尺度对流系统内多个强降水单体的结构演变及闪电活动特征

利用多普勒雷达、SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统和气象自动站等观测资料,以线状中尺度对流系统内多个γ中尺度强降水单体为研究对象,揭示了单体之间、单体与β中尺度线状对流系统的多种相互关系,设计多种雷达参量对单体的结构演变进行定量化描述,进一步建立了对流单体结构演变与闪电活动的相互关系。得到以下结论：（1）线状中尺度对流系统内顺义、房山、固安、宝坻对流单体分别造成了1 h降雨23、50、27、70 mm,在其演变过程中,顺义单体被另一个单体追逐、供给,房山单体包括2个更小单体的合并过程,而固安、宝坻单体的初生和发展与线状中尺度对流系统是被喂养、吞食的关系。（2）设计的雷达参量V₄₀（40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、V_40UP-6（6 km高度以上40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、S_ET11（回波顶在11 km处的回波范围大小）量化描述了单体的三维结构演变特征,F_ic（云闪频数）和F_cg（地闪频数）与上述雷达参量关系密切,如与V_40UP-6的相关系数为0.63—0.97;而F_ic比F_cg更敏感地呼应单体结构的变化。（3）固安单体在成熟阶段,主正电荷区（即辐射点最大密集区所处的地方）维持在较低位置,远低于其他单体在成熟阶段主正电荷区的高度。（4）在对流单体合并后,F_ic和F_cg增大且主正电荷区明显抬升、闪电频数陡增对应降水强度增大、闪电频数峰值超前于降雨强度极值等特征,对灾害天气的预警具有积极意义。     

一次江淮暴雨过程的数值模拟和诊断分析

利用WRF模式对2003年7月4-5日江淮地区的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨区处于高温高湿环境,高、低空急流的耦合和低层辐合以及高层辐散的配置有利于暴雨的产生发展.通过计算湿位涡还发现,ζ_MPV1高低层正负值区叠加的配置、ζ_MPV1<0及ζ_MPV2>0的演变,表明此次过程中不仅有对流不稳定能量存在,还有倾斜涡度的发展.ζ_MPV1和ζ_MPV2综合反映了暴雨区对流不稳定和斜压不稳定的增强.     

武汉大气能见度与PM2.5浓度及相对湿度关系的非线性分析及能见度预报

武汉作为中部地区高湿度代表城市,大气污染严重,霾天气多发,但有关该地区大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度(RH)的定量关系尚不明确。利用2014年9月—2015年3月武汉地区逐时能见度、相对湿度及颗粒物质量浓度观测数据,研究分析了武汉大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度的关系,并进行能见度非线性预报初探,得到以下结论:武汉霾时数发生比例高,霾的发生和加重是能见度降低的主要原因;能见度降低伴随大量细粒子产生和累积,这是武汉大气能见度恶化的重要诱因。细颗粒物浓度与相对湿度共同影响和制约大气能见度变化,高湿高浓度时能见度显著下降,湿情景下(RH≥40%),能见度恶化主要是由湿度增高诱使细颗粒物粒径吸湿增长导致其散射效率增大造成的。当RH >90%时,能见度随湿度升高成线性递减,相对湿度每升高1%,武汉平均能见度降低0.568 km。而干情景下(RH<40%),能见度迅速降低的关键因素是PM_2.5质量浓度升高。在城市大气细粒子污染背景下,能见度与相对湿度成非线性关系,这主要与PM_2.5对能见度的影响及吸湿性颗粒物的散射效率变化有关。PM_2.5浓度与能见度成幂函数非线性关系,80%≤RH<90%湿度区段下相关性最强。PM_2.5浓度对能见度的影响敏感阈值是随着湿度升高而减小的,干情景下能见度10 km对应的PM_2.5浓度阈值为70 μg/m³,湿情景下该阈值为18—55 μg/m³。当PM_2.5质量浓度低于约40 μg/m³时,继续降低PM_2.5可显著提高武汉大气能见度。预报试验表明,基于神经网络方法建立大气能见度非线性预报模型是可行的,预报能见度相关系数为0.86,均方根误差为1.9 km,能见度≤10 km的TS评分为0.92。网络模型具有较高预报性能,对霾的判别有较高准确性,为衔接区域环境气象数值预报模式,建立大气能见度精细化动力统计模型提供参考依据。     

中国区域性大气加权平均温度线性模型精度评估

以欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析资料ERA5为参考数据,评估由探空数据建立的中国区域88个单站大气加权平均温度（T_m）与地表气温（T_s）线性关系模型的精度.各站T_m-T_s线性模型计算的T_m（计算值）与ERA5 气压层数据积分所得的T_m（参考值）间偏差均方根值（RMSE）为1.8~5.5 K.不同站模型计算值与参考值间存在-1.22~4.54 K 的系统性偏差,且绝大多数测站（82个站）系统性偏差为正值,即模型计算值总体上大于参考值.补偿各站系统性偏差后,模型计算值与参考值间RMSE降为1.5~3.5 K.与使用中国区域统一模型相比,使用单站模型平均能提高0.6 K的T_m计算精度,尤其在中国西部、西北和内蒙区域,精度提高可达1~3.9 K.对所有测站模型计算值和参考值间偏差时序进行分析,发现超过半数测站的偏差存在明显季节性变化.     

江淮地区龙卷超级单体风暴及其环境参数分析

利用多普勒雷达探测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2003—2010年发生在江淮地区的6个龙卷超级单体风暴及其环境参数进行了分析。研究表明：（1）龙卷超级单体风暴H_BASE平均为1.7 km,H_TOP平均为9.1 km;H多在风暴的下部,近于下部的1/4处。H_BASE平均值比江淮地区各种超级单体的平均值低得多,H_TOP则略低。（2）龙卷超级单体I_VIL平均为25.6 kg/m²,Z_MX平均为54.8 dBz。和江淮地区超级单体相比,龙卷I_VIL要小得多,而龙卷Z_MX略低。（3）龙卷超级单体的中气旋M_BASE、M_TOP和M_SHR平均值分别为1.2 km、3.9 km和14.4×10^-3s^-1,和江淮地区超级单体相比,龙卷M_BASE、M_TOP明显低,而M_SHR略高。（4）TVS参数最强时的V_AD在12—45 m/s,V_LLD多大于30 m/s,V_MXD多超过30 m/s,V_MXD的高度不低于0.8 km,T_DPT在2.4—6.4 km,T_BASE在0.7—1.5 km,T_TOP在2.3—6.4 km,T_MXSHR超过22×10^-3s^-1。TVS参数最强时间与龙卷实际时间基本吻合,平均相差4.2 min;平均而言,TVS出现后6 min有龙卷发生。（5）雷达推算的龙卷超级单体的0—6 km风垂直切变比江淮地区超级单体的风垂直切变平均值高15.2%;龙卷发生前I_CAPE平均为1752 J/kg,I_K为38℃,850 hPa到地面风切变平均超过12 m/s,850—500 hPa温差平均为23.7℃。龙卷发生前能量处在中等到强的状态,大气不稳定性较强,风垂直切变大。     

利用LAP-3000型风廓线雷达资料对深圳地区湍流耗散率特征的研究

利用2010年1-2月深圳LAP3000型风廓线雷达资料, 对湍流耗散率进行了估算, 针对典型晴天条件下的湍流耗散率ε、折射率结构常数C₂ⁿ、水平风速和风切变, 分析了其时空变化特征。得出如下结论: (1) 深圳地区低空大气ε的量级在10^-7~10^-1 m^-2·s^-3之间, 与理论模拟值基本一致; (2) 时间分布特征为, 2 km以下ε有很明显的日变化特征, 夜晚和上午ε较大, 下午及傍晚减少;(3) 空间分布特征表现为, ε随高度大致呈递减分布;ε量级达10^-2.5 m²·s^-3所在高度可作为深圳地区2010年1月14-15日边界层顶高度的判断依据。     

微波波段大气折射率结构常数的仿真研究

大气折射率结构常数描述了大气湍流起伏的强弱,它表征了大气折射率随机不均匀性的剧烈程度。光波和无线电波在大气中传播时会受到大气湍流的影响而产生各种不良效应,如:光斑漂移、闪烁、相位起伏等。因此,对大气折射率结构常数的研究具有重要的意义。本文利用常规探空资料对微波波段大气折射率结构常数进行了仿真研究,结果表明:在低空,特别是大气边界层之内,大气折射率结构常数主要为湿度所贡献;在高空,大气折射率结构常数主要为温度所贡献。在微波波段,影响大气折射率结构常数最大的气象因子并不是温湿压的大小,而是它们梯度的大小,其中湿度梯度的大小对其影响最大,在实际的低空测量大气折射率结构常数时,主要考虑湿度梯度与温度梯度的影响。     

Aircraft measurements and model simulations of stratospheric ozone and N2O: implications for chemistry and transport processes in the models

Airborne measurements of stratospheric ozone and N₂O from the SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer) Validation and Utilization Experiment (SCIA-VALUE) are presented. The campaign was conducted in September 2002 and February–March 2003. The Airborne Submillimeter Radiometer (ASUR) observed stratospheric constituents like O₃ and N₂O, among others, spanning a latitude from 5°S to 80°N during the survey. The tropical ozone source regions show high ozone volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of around 11 ppmv at 33 km altitude, and the altitude of the maximum VMR increases from the tropics to the Arctic. The N₂O VMRs show the largest value of 325 ppbv in the lower stratosphere, indicating their tropospheric origin, and they decrease with increasing altitude and latitude due to photolysis. The sub-tropical and polar mixing barriers are well represented in the N₂O measurements. The most striking seasonal difference found in the measurements is the large polar descent in February–March. The observed features are interpreted with the help of SLIMCAT and Bremen Chemical Transport Model (CTMB) simulations. The SLIMCAT simulations are in good agreement with the measured O₃ and N₂O values, where the differences are within 1 ppmv for O₃ and 15 ppbv for N₂O. However, the CTMB simulations underestimate the tropical middle stratospheric O₃ (1–1.5 ppmv) and the tropical lower stratospheric N₂O (15–30 ppbv) measurements. A detailed analysis with various measurements and model simulations suggests that the biases in the CTMB simulations are related to its parameterised chemistry schemes.     

Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability Associated with Growing Season Droughts and Pluvials on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

The importance of measurements of the vertical distribution of odd nitrogen in studies of ozone chemistry and climate change has long being recognized. In this paper, we use the optimal estimation method developed by Rodgers (1976, 1990) to retrieve NO₂ vertical profiles from slant column observations made with a portable ultraviolet (UV)‐visible zenith‐sky spectrometer operated on the ground during the Middle Atmosphere Nitrogen TRend Assessment (MANTRA) balloon campaign carried out at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, Canada (52°N, 107°W), from 18 to 25 August 1998. Late summer was chosen for the campaign because the stratospheric zonal wind velocity changes sign at that time. Under such conditions the stratospheric winds are at a minimum, leaving the stratosphere in a dynamically quiescent state and closer to photochemical control (Fahey et al., 2001; Fioletov and Shepherd, 2003). The NO₂ profile retrieved from the ground‐based observations is compared with the co‐located and simultaneous NO₂ profile measured by a balloon‐borne UV‐visible spectrometer during sunrise on 24 August. Good agreement is observed, giving us confidence in the retrieval technique adopted. The retrieved NO₂ profiles are also compared with the output of the Model for Evaluating oZONe trends (MEZON) 3D stratospheric chemical transport model. It is observed that, for altitudes below the peak concentration, the model underestimates the NO₂ amount, and at the altitude of peak concentration, the model values lie between the values measured from the balloon and those retrieved from the ground‐based measurements. Nevertheless, the model reproduces the general shape of the retrieved profiles, including the altitude of the NO₂ maximum, for both sunrise and sunset conditions.     

A vertical profile of Ozone concentration in the atmosphericboundary layer over central Taiwan

Summary  In the central region of Taiwan, ozone episodes occur most often during autumn. Two field experiments were conducted during the autumns of 1998 and 1999 to analyze the vertical profile of the boundary layer and determine its effects on ozone concentration over the region. The vertical virtual potential temperature and wind profiles were derived from tethersonde data. The NO_x, NMHC and O₃ concentration vertical profiles were monitored up to a height of 500 meters using black-covered Teflon tedler sampling bags. During the experimental periods, nighttime terrestrial long wave radiation could cause the inversion height to reach 500 meters by the following morning. It was shown that these types of synoptic structures suppress the vertical diffusion of NO_x, NMHC and O₃. During the daytime, measurements indicate that pollutants were well mixed in the upper portion of the mixing layer. At night, the ground level ozone concentration was on the decrease but increased with altitude to a height of 500 m. The NO_x decreased with altitude whereas the NMHC showed no significant variations. Received April 13, 2000 Revised July 24, 2000     

A lagrangian random-walk model for simulating water vapor,CO2 and sensible heat flux densities and scalar profiles over and within a soybean canopy

An integrated canopy micrometeorological model is described for calculating CO₂, water vapor and sensible heat exchange rates and scalar concentration profiles over and within a crop canopy. The integrated model employs a Lagrangian random walk algorithm to calculate turbulent diffusion. The integrated model extends previous Lagrangian modelling efforts by employing biochemical, physiological and micrometeorological principles to evaluate vegetative sources and sinks. Model simulations of water vapor, CO₂ and sensible heat flux densities are tested against measurements made over a soybean canopy, while calculations of scalar profiles are tested against measurements made above and within the canopy. The model simulates energy and mass fluxes and scalar profiles above the canopy successfully. On the other hand, model calculations of scalar profiles inside the canopy do not match measurements.The tested Lagrangian model is also used to evaluate simpler modelling schemes, as needed for regional and global applications. Simple, half-order closure modelling schemes (which assume a constant scalar profile in the canopy) do not yield large errors in the computation of latent heat (LE) and CO₂ (F _c ) flux densities. Small errors occur because the source-sink formulation of LE andF _c are relatively insensitive to changes in scalar concentrations and the scalar gradients are small. On the other hand, complicated modelling frames may be needed to calculate sensible heat flux densities; the source-sink formulation of sensible heat is closely coupled to the within-canopy air temperature profile.     

Profile and Character of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index Cn2

Random fluctuations of turbulence bring random fluctuations of the refractive index, making the atmosphere a random fluctuation medium that destroys the coherence of light-waves. Research in atmospheric turbulence is actually the investigation of the atmospheric refractive index. The atmospheric structure constant of refractive index, Cn2, is an important parameter denoting atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, Cn2 is measured during the day and at night and in all four seasons using a high sensitivity micro-thermal meter QHTP-2. The vertical profile of Cn2 in Hefei (0–30 km) is investigated by the analysis of experimental data. The average profile of Cn2 in Hefei exhibits conspicuous day and night differences with increased altitude. The distribution of log(Cn2) is nearly normal and has conspicuous seasonal differences.     

Tropical Forests Under the Climates of the Last 30,000 Years

Vegetational history can help us to predict future environments by providing data for testing AGCMs, for indicating the vegetational response to rapid warming and changing CO₂ concentrations, and for mathematical modelling of vegetation. Most of the data are palynological, and there are well over 100 pollen diagrams from tropical regions. Maps are presented showing summarized pollen diagrams from the lowlands of South-East Asia and the West Pacific, Tropical Latin America and Tropical Africa. In all these regions there is some evidence suggesting that at the LGM lowland forests were somewhat restricted in area and included montane elements. This is consistent with cooler and drier climate at the LGM. From the montane and lowland areas of these three regions, the pollen evidence is summarized in altitudinal diagrams. These suggest considerable depression of altitudinal zones at the LGM, suggesting temperatures c. 5–10°C cooler than now. These results conflict with earlier oxygen isotope data from marine foraminifera, but do not conflict with more recent oxygen isotope measurements from tropical corals. It is also suggested that altitudinal movements may be partly controlled by CO₂ concentration and ultraviolet light.     

Evolution of drought severity and its impact on corn in the Republic of Moldova

Droughts in Moldova were evaluated using meteorological data since 1955 and a long time series (1891?C2009). In addition, yields for corn (Zea mays L.), a crop widely grown in Moldova, were used to demonstrate drought impact. The main aim is to propose use of the S _i (S _i-a and S _i-m) drought index while discussing its potential use in studying the evolution of drought severity in Moldova. Also, a new multi-scalar drought index, the standardized precipitation?Cevapotranspiration index (SPEI), is tested for the first time in identifying drought variability in Moldova while comparing it with the commonly used standardized precipitation index (SPI). S _i-m, SPI, SPEI, and S _i-a indices show an increasing tendency toward more intensive and prolonged severely dry and extremely dry summer months. Drought frequency increased through six decades, which included long dry periods in the 1990s and 2000s. Moreover, the evolution of summer evapotranspiration recorded a positive and significant trend (+3.3?mm/year, R ²?=?0.46; p????0.05) between 1955 and 2009. A yield model based on the S _i-a agricultural index and historic corn yields explained 43% of observed variability in corn production when drought occurred in May, July, and August. Increasing severity of the 20-year drought during the critical part of the growing season is raising corn yield losses, as net losses have so far exceeded net gains.     

Canopy Architecture and Turbulence Structure in a Coniferous Forest

Synchronous sonic anemometric measurements at five heightswithin a mixed coniferous forest were used to test two different parameterisations ofcanopy architecture in the application of a second-order turbulence closure model. Inthe computation of the leaf drag area, the aerodynamic sheltering was replaced with anarchitectural sheltering, assumed to be analogous to the clumping index defined in radiativetransfer theory. Consequently, the ratio of leaf area density and sheltering factor was approximatedby the effective leaf area or the mean contact number, both obtained from the inversion of non-destructive optical measurements. The first parameter represents the equivalentrandomly dispersed leaf area in terms of shading, the second is the average number of leavesthat a straight line intercepts penetrating the canopy with a certain zenith angle. Theselection of this direction was determined by the analysis of the mean angle of the wind vectorduring sweep events. The drag coefficient values obtained from the inversion of themomentum flux equation, using the two proposed parameterisations, are in good agreement withvalues found in the literature. The predicted profiles of turbulence statistics reasonablymatch actual measurements, especially in the case of the mean contact numberparameterisation. The vertical profile of leaf drag area, obtained by forcing the turbulence modelto match the observed standard deviation of vertical velocity (_w), is intermediatebetween the two empirical ones. Finally, the proposed canopy parameterisations were appliedto a Lagrangian transport model to predict vertical profiles of air temperature, H₂O andCO₂ concentration.