Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.     

Climatological assessment of desert targets over East Asia — Australian region for the solar channel calibration of geostationary satellites

Desert targets for solar channel calibration of geostationary satellites in the East Asia — Australian region were selected and their qualities were assessed with aid of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data (i.e., white-sky surface albedo, aerosol optical thickness, and cloud fraction) from 2002 to 2008. The magnitude, spatial uniformity, and temporal stability of the white-sky surface albedo are examined in order to select bright and stable targets. Subsequently those selected targets over China, India, and Australia are further checked for their qualities in terms of data yielding ratio, aerosol optical thickness, cloud fraction, satellite viewing angle, and solar zenith angle. Results indicate that Chinese targets are found to be not adequate as calibration targets in spite of excellent surface conditions because of high percentage of cloud, possibly heavy aerosol loading, and lower solar elevation angle in particular during winter time. Indian site should be take care about relatively high temporal variation of surface condition and heavy aerosol loading. On the other hand, Australian desert targets are considered to be best when surface brightness, spatial and temporal stability, data yielding ratio, aerosol, and cloud are counted.     

The albedo of snow for partially cloudy skies

The albedo of snow for different cloudiness conditions is an important parameter in the Earth's radiation budget analysis and in the study of snowpack's thermal conditions. In this study an efficient approximate method is derived to calculate the incident spectral solar flux and snow-cover albedo in terms of different atmospheric, cloud, and snow parameters. The global flux under partially cloudy skies is expressed in terms of the clear sky flux and a coefficient which models the effect of scattering and absorption by cloud patches and multiple reflections between the cloud base and snowcover. The direct and the diffuse components of the clear sky flux are obtained using the spectral flux outside the atmosphere and the spectral transmission coefficients for absorption and scattering by molecules and aerosols.The spectral snow reflectance model considers both specular surface reflection and volumetric multiple scattering. The surface reflection is calculated by using a crystal-shape-dependent bidirectional reflectance distribution function; the volumetric multiple scattering is calculated by using a crystal-size-dependent approximate solution in the radiative transfer equation. The input parameters to the model are atmospheric precipitable water, ozone content, turbidity, cloud optical thickness, the size and shape of ice crystals of snow and surface pressure. The model yields spectral and integrated solar flux and snow reflectance as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloudcover.The model is illustrated using representative parameters for the Antarctic coastal regions. The albedo for a clear sky depends inversely on the solar elevation. At high elevations the albedo depends primarily upon the grain size; at low elevation the albedo depends on grain size and shape. The gradient of the albedo-elevation curve increases as the grains become larger and faceted. The albedo for a densely overcast sky is a few percent higher than the clear-sky albedo at high elevations. A simple relationship between grain size and the overcast albedo is obtained. For a set of grain size and shape, the albedo as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloud cover is tabulated.     

Energy Balance Of A Sparse Coniferous High-Latitude Forest Under Winter Conditions

Measurements carried out in Northern Finland on radiation and turbulent fluxes over a sparse, sub-arctic boreal forest with snow covered ground were analysed. The measurements represent late winter conditions characterised by low solar elevation angles. During the experiment (12–24 March 1997) day and night were about equally long. At low solar elevation angles the forest shades most of the snow surface. Therefore an important part of the radiation never reaches the snow surface but is absorbed by the forest. The sensible heat flux above the forest was fairly large, reaching more than 100 W m^-2. The measurements of sensible heat flux within and above the forest revealed that the sensible heat flux from the snow surface is negligible and the sensible heat flux above the forest stems from warming of the trees. A simple model for the surface energy balance of a sparse forest is presented. The model treats the diffuse and direct shortwave (solar) radiation separately. It introduces a factor that accounts for the shading of the ground at low solar elevation angles, and a parameter that deals with the partial transparency of the forest.Input to the model are the direct and diffuse incoming shortwave radiation.Measurements of the global radiation (direct plus diffuse incoming shortwaveradiation) above the forest revealed a considerable attenuation of the globalradiation at low solar elevation. A relation for the atmospheric turbidity asfunction of the solar elevation angle is suggested. The global radiation wassimulated for a three month period. For conditions with a cloud cover of lessthan 7 oktas good agreement between model predictions and measurementswere found. For cloud cover 7 and 8 oktas a considerable spread can beobserved. To apply the proposed energy balance model, the global radiationmust be separated into its diffuse and direct components. We propose a simpleempirical relationship between diffuse shortwave and global radiation asfunction of cloud cover.     

大同市空气污染对太阳辐射的影响

根据大同市辐射、日照条件变差、烟幕日数增多等事实，利用大同市1963—1987年地面实测的太阳辐射资料分析了大同空气污染对太阳辐射的影响及其长期变化情况。结果表明，到达地面的太阳辐射量的减弱与空气中混合污染物的影响有较密切的关系；空气污染对太阳辐射量减弱的逐年变化情况，与混浊度因子的变化有很好的相关关系。     

The influence of clouds on surface UV erythemal irradiance

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of clouds on the ultraviolet erythemal irradiance. The study was developed at three stations in the Iberian Peninsula: Madrid and Murcia, using data recorded in the period 2000–2001, and Zaragoza, using data recorded in 2001. In order to determine the cloud effect on ultraviolet erythemal irradiance, we considered a cloud modification factor defined as the ratio between the measured values of ultraviolet erythemal irradiance and the corresponding clear-sky ultraviolet erythemal irradiance, which would be expected for the same time period and atmospheric conditions. The dependence of this cloud modification factor on total cloud amount, cloud type and solar elevation angle was investigated. The results suggest that the effect of cloud on ultraviolet erythemal irradiance can be parameterized in a simple way in terms of the cloud amount. Our results suggest that the same cloud modification factor model can be used at the three analysed locations estimating the ultraviolet erythemal irradiance with mean bias deviation (MBD) in the range of the expected experimental errors. This cloud modification factor is lower than that associated to the whole solar spectral range, indicating that the attenuation for the ultraviolet erythemal irradiance is lower than that associated to other solar spectral ranges. The cloud modification factor for ultraviolet erythemal irradiance presents dependence with solar elevation, with opposite dependencies with solar elevation for overcast and partial cloud cover conditions, a fact that can be explained in terms of the influence of reflection-enhancement of the ultraviolet irradiance in the last case. Concerning the influence of cloud type, a limited study of two cloud categories, low and medium level and high level, indicated that for overcast conditions, lower clouds presents an attenuation of ultraviolet erythemal irradiance 20% greater than that associated to high level clouds.     

Planktonic dimethylsulfide and cloud albedo: An estimate of the feedback response

Partial control of climate by the biosphere may be possible through a chain of processes that ultimately links marine plankton production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) with changes in cloud albedo (Charlson et al., 1987). Changes in cloud optical properties can have profound impacts on atmospheric radiation transfer and, hence, the surface environment. In this study, we have developed a simple model that incorporates empirically based parameterizations to account for the biological control of cloud droplet concentration in a first attempt to estimate the strength of the DMS-cloud albedo feedback mechanism. We find that the feedback reduces the global climatic response to imposed perturbations in solar insolation by less than 7%. Likewise, it modifies the strength of other feedbacks affecting surface insolation over oceans by roughly the same amount. This suggests that the DMS-cloud albedo mechanism will be unable to substantially reduce climate sensitivity, although these results should be confirmed with less idealized models when more is known about the net production of DMS by the marine biosphere and its relation to aerosol/cloud microphysics and climate.     

UV irradiance on arbitrarily oriented surfaces: variation with atmospheric and ground properties

Summary The dependency of erythemal weighted solar UV irradiance on tilted surfaces with different orientation is investigated with respect to solar zenith angle, variable atmospheric conditions and albedo of the location. For overcast conditions or a cloud in front of the sun, the irradiance on a horizontal surface in general is largest, with the consequence that it is reduced for surfaces with any tilted position. For cloud free conditions the irradiance on a tilted plane, in comparison to that on a horizontal flat surface, is increased for orientations towards the sun, but reduced for other orientations. The increase is strongest for low sun in combination with clear atmosphere and high ground albedo, as is typical for snow covered mountain conditions.     

东亚地区云和地表反照率对硫酸盐直接辐射强迫的影响

文中利用区域气候模式深入探讨了东亚地区云及地表反照率对硫酸盐直接辐射强迫的影响 ,同时定量估算了东亚地区云区气溶胶的直接辐射强迫 ,讨论了硫酸盐对地表和大气短波辐射平衡产生的不同影响。研究表明 :云对气溶胶的直接辐射强迫具有很强的减弱作用 ,这种减弱作用不仅取决于云覆盖份数 ,而且取决于云的光学厚度。就区域平均而言 ,文中模拟的东亚地区气溶胶直接辐射强迫为 - 0 .0 97W /m2 ,占总直接辐射强迫的 10 .4%左右。表明云对硫酸盐直接辐射具有很强的减弱作用 ,在估算其总的直接辐射强迫时 ,云区的贡献不可忽视。较高的地表反照率会减弱硫酸盐的直接辐射强迫 ,而较低地表反照率则会增加硫酸盐的辐射强迫。硫酸盐气溶胶对大气辐射平衡影响非常小 ,但对地表辐射平衡产生重要影响 ,影响程度与大气几乎一致。     

层状云微物理参数反演及其辐射效应的个例研究

利用毫米波云雷达、微波辐射计联合反演方法,对2015年11月11日安徽寿县的一次层状云过程的云参数进行了反演,将所得云参数加入到SBDART辐射传输模式中,进行辐射通量计算,并将计算的地面辐射通量与观测的地面辐射通量进行了对比分析。研究表明:1)利用毫米波雷达和微波辐射计数据联合反演的云参数比较可靠;2)利用SBDART模式并结合反演的云参数,可以准确实时地计算地面及其他高度层的长短波辐射通量;3)在反演的云参数中,光学厚度对地面各种辐射通量的影响是最大的,云层的光学厚度越大,到达地面的太阳短波辐射越小,地面反射短波辐射也越小。另外云底温度越高,云体向下发射的红外长波辐射越大。地面向上的长波辐射是地面温度的普朗克函数,随地面温度而变;4)云对地面的短波辐射强迫为负值,对地面有降温的作用。云对地面的长波辐射强迫是一个正值,对地面有一个增温的作用;5)云对地面的净辐射强迫随时间变化很大,它的正负与太阳高度角和云参数有关。     

Influence of Clouds on UV Irradiance at Ground Level and Backscattered Exittance

The influence of various cloud parameters and the interactions with the ground albedo and the solar zenith angle have been studied by means of model simulations. The radiative transfer model suitable for a cloudy atmosphere as well as for a clear atmosphere has been developed on the basis of the Discrete Ordinate Method. This study leads to a general understanding for cloudy atmospheres: in the presence of a uniform cloud, the cloud scattering is dominant to molecular and aerosol scattering, and it is also wavelength-independent; the ratio of transmitted irradiance in a cloudy atmosphere to that in the background clear atmosphere is independent of cloud height and solar zenith angle. That’s to say, the radiation downwelling out of a cloud is quite isotropic; it decreases approximately exponentially with the cloud optical depth at a rate related to the ground albedo; the reflected irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is dependent on cloud optical depth as well as on solar zenith angle, but not on ground albedo for clouds of not very thin optical depth.     

用于空间对地遥感的一个参数化辐射传输计算模式

一个足够精度的参数化向上亮度模式对空间对地遥感的大气订正应用是很有意义的。依据向上天空亮度对大气散射相函数、光学厚度、太阳天顶角、空间方位和天顶角等有关参数的依赖特性,基于大量的天空亮度数值模拟计算资料,本文发展了一个关于向上天空亮度的参数化模式。39440组的数值模拟对比资料表明,在气溶胶光学厚度#Aτt≤1,太阳天顶角小于72°,μ≤0.432 （天顶角小于65°）以及无云的条件下,由现在的参数化的模式所计算的向上亮度的误差一般小于6%。地表反射率越大,参数化模式的精度越高。参数化模式的精度一般随着光学厚度和太阳天顶角的增大而变差。     

An estimate of day-time turbulent diffusivity over complex terrain from standard weather data

Summary A method for the calculation of atmospheric turbulent diffusivity over complex terrain during day-time is presented, which may improve the predictions based on diagnostic meteorological models. The proposed procedure takes into account the geographic location of the area (latitude and longitude), the time of the day, the inclination and exposition of the surface, the soil type and the cloud cover. These data are used to compute the amount of solar heat flux contributing to the heating of the air mass above the ground level, and, consequently, the atmospheric turbulence. The model accounts for the effect of shadows generated by mountain profiles, which determine a differential heating at the valley floor and induce spatial and temporal variations of turbulent diffusivity. Model calibration has been performed through ground data collected during a field campaign in the Adige valley in the surrounding of the town of Trento.     

Future Changes in Biological Activity in the North Pacific Due to Anthropogenic Forcing of the Physical Environment

Many studies have examined the physical changes expected in the environment as a result of anthropogenic forcing. These physical changes will have an effect on ecosystems as well. In this study, a nitrogen-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) model is used to examine the effects of changes in the physical environment on primary productivity in the North Pacific ocean. The physical variables considered are mixed layer temperature and depth, solar insolation, and large-scale upwelling. The changes in these fields by the 2090s are taken from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model forced by projected atmospheric CO₂ and sulfates, then applied to the NPZ biological model. Theresult is a change in the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton and herbivore concentrations across the subpolar North Pacific, moving from a regime characterized by strong variability with low wintertime values and a spring bloom, to much more constant yearly values. A reduction of yearly-averaged primary productivity accompanies much of this shift to more constant year-round conditions. In other regions, productivity increases as warmer surface waters enable higher growth rates. Changes in mixed layer temperature and depth account for almost all the changes in productivity; model-predicted changes in surface insolation and large-scale upwelling have little impact.     

10层陆面过程模式及其Offline独立试验

利用西伯利亚地区的一个试验点资料和1998年中国淮河流域试验（HUBEX）的加密观测资料，对一个新发展的陆面过程模式进行了模拟检验。西伯利亚地区的单点试验表明，不同时间间隔的边界强迫对地表吸收的净短波辐射和释放的潜热影响较大。淮河流域的模拟结果表明，模式能够较好地模拟出我国夏季半湿润地区陆面特征量的变化趋势。由于模式模拟的地温偏低、净短波辐射偏小。所以模拟的感热和潜热值偏小。对该模式在淮河流域的植被、土壤等参数的合理选取可能会提高模式的模拟效果。     

额济纳绿洲夏末典型晴天小气候特征分析

绿洲系统特有的地理地貌形成了绿洲特殊的小气候特征。利用额济纳绿洲2003年9月8～10日小气候观测资料，分析了绿洲柽柳林的小气候特征。在柽柳林内，地表和近地层大气温度有明显的日变化，日间地表给大气加热，大气温度呈超绝热递减率随高度递减；夜间大气给地表加热，大气为稳定层结。近地层空气湿度的日变化与温度相反。林内空气温度的垂直分布主要取决于冠层与地表吸收太阳辐射状况。在林冠顶层，白天以上升气流为主，夜间以下沉气流为主，绿洲荒漠环流效应已经不明显。绿洲上空大气浑浊度小，对太阳辐射的削减较少，绿洲具有很好的光资源背景。     

Evaluation of radiative parameterizations using an explicit cloud microphysical model

Based on the simulations with a 3-D large-eddy simulation model of marine cloud-topped boundary layer that includes explicit cloud physics formulation, we have evaluated the effect of spatial inhomogeneities in cloud macro- and microstructure on the performance of parameterizations of optical depth commonly used in large-scale models. We have shown that an accurate parameterization of the grid average optical depth alone is not sufficient for correct determination of cloud transmittance to solar radiation due to the non-linear dependence between these two variables.The problem can be solved by introducing the “equivalent” value of optical depth that differs from the ordinarily defined mean optical depth by a factor α_t, that depends on the degree of cloud inhomogeneity and ranges from about 2 in the cumulus case to about 1.3 in the stratiform case.The accuracy of cloud optical depth parameterizations commonly employed in largescale models has been evaluated using the data from the explicit microphysical model as a benchmark for comparison. It has been shown that in the cumulus cloud case the parameterized expressions can err by as much as 100%. The error is smaller for more uniform stratiform clouds, where the error for some parameterizations varied in the 10–40% range. The best results are given by parameterizations that account for vertical stratification of parameters on which they are based. However, the error given by a particular parameterization varies and is different at cloud and surface levels. The results show the limitations of the existing simplified parameterizations and illustrate the scope and complexity of the cloud radiation parameterization problem.     

广州地区太阳分光辐射的某些变化特征

利用广州地区1985—1990年的太阳分光辐射的连续观测资料（观测角度为23°11′），研究了广州地区紫外辐射、可见光辐射（光合有效辐射）、近红外辐射的某些特征。结果指出，每年7—10月份各分光辐射及总辐射总量较大。月总辐射中可见光辐射占总辐射的百分比年平均为47.3%，相应的紫外辐射和近红外辐射分别占7.1%和45.6%。文中还分析了晴天条件下分光辐射的变化和1990年紫外辐射变化的某些特征，并分析和讨论了分光辐射与云量、日照时间等因子的相关。     

Development of GWNU (Gangneung-Wonju National University) one-layer transfer model for calculation of solar radiation distribution of the Korean peninsula

Gangneung-Wonju National University (GWNU) one-layer solar radiation model is developed in order to resolve the lack of the vertical structure of atmospheric components and fast calculation with high horizontal spatial resolution. GWNU model is based on IQBAL and NREL methods and corrected by precise multi-layer Line-By-Line (LBL) model. Further, the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface by using 42 types of vertical atmospheric data as input data was compared with detailed models and one-layer models. One-layer solar radiation models were corrected depending on sensitivity of each input data (i.e., total precipitable water, ozone, mixed gas, and solar zenith angle). Global solar radiation was calculated by corrected GWNU solar model with satellites (MODIS, OMI and MTSAT-2), KLAPS model prediction data in Korea peninsula in 2010, and the results were compared to surface solar radiation observed by 22 KMA solar radiation sites. Calculated solar radiation annually accumulated showed highest solar radiation distribution in Andong, Daegu, and Jinju regions, meanwhile the observation data showed lower solar radiation in Daegu region compared to model result values.     

GRAPES-Meso模式浅对流云辐射效应的改进试验

在万子为等（2015）对GRAPES-Meso模式浅对流参数化改进的基础上,进一步引入了浅对流云量诊断计算,并设计旨在完善浅对流云辐射效应的浅云云量和云中水凝物的补偿方案,以改进模式低层云量偏少和浅对流云辐射效应不足的问题。通过对数值试验结果的诊断和对比分析以及与观测的比较,重点考察了浅对流云量计算与浅对流激发的协调性、浅对流云对低云补偿后所产生的辐射效应以及对模式地面要素预报的影响等,验证了改进方案的合理性与有效性。结果表明:（1）浅对流云量诊断计算合理,其云覆盖区与浅对流激发区相吻合,引入浅对流云量的计算可减小模式云量的计算偏差、使其向观测结果靠近;（2）改进方案在浅对流发生区低层0.5-4 km高度范围内,对影响模式云辐射过程的浅云云量和云中水凝物形成有效补偿,最明显的浅云补偿在1-1.5 km高度处,浅对流活跃时期浅对流过程对浅云水凝物（云水和雨水之和）的补偿量可达20%-55%;（3）云光学厚度对浅云水凝物的补偿响应合理,即水凝物的补偿引起云光学厚度增大,两者的变化特征在时空分布上十分相似,且云光学厚度之变化受云水补偿的影响比受雨水补偿的影响更明显;（4）在白天时段,浅云补偿所产生的辐射效应使模式地表太阳总辐射有所下降,缩小了与观测的偏差,进而使地表温度和地面2 m气温模拟偏差减小。改进方案在缓解模式云量偏少、地表太阳总辐射偏强和地面2 m气温偏高等方面的作用,在批量试验中得到了验证。