Study on a gravity precursor mode of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

To study the seismogeny process or the precursory behavior of the 1976 M _S=7.0 Lijiang earthquake, we analyze the repeat gravity data with high precision from the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experiment Area (WYEPEA) and the related results of geology and geophysics survey in this paper. Considering the gross errors caused by observation data and model difference, we have firstly inverted the slip distribution of the main active faults with time based on the robust Bayesian least squares estimation and multi-fault dislocation model. The results show that the slip changes of the faults with time from 1990 to 1997 obviously reflect the preparation process of the Lijiang earthquake. The images of main precursor mode have the characteristic of main shock-after shock type, which is agreement to the model of coupling movement between crust density and crust deformation (DD mode of coupling movement).     

丽江7.0级地震重力前兆模式研究<

为了研究1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震前地震孕育过程或前兆表现，利用滇西地震实验场内高精度重复重力观测数据，结合地质调查和地球物理推断结果，并考虑到观测数据和模型粗差， 采用稳健或抗差-贝叶斯最小二乘算法和多断层位错模型，首次初步反演获得了研究区主要活动断裂滑动的时间变化分布．结果表明，1990～1997年断层运动的时间变化，较好地反映了1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震孕育过程．其主要前兆模式图象具有主震余震型特征，遵循地壳内部密度和地壳形变耦合运动模式（简称DD耦合运动模式）．      

Study on a gravity precursor mode of the M_S=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

Introduction Earthquake prediction must be based on some kind of precursors. The precursors are some things that will indicate a shock occurrence (MEI, et al, 1993). The information of earthquake precursors comes from a deep-seated interior of crust. Therefore the analysis and pick-up of pre-cursory information should be based on the internal process of crustal movement, which includes the earthquake preparation. Being the weak parts of crust, the slip and dislocation of faults can cause cru…     

GPS time-series and its response to M S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake

In this paper, observation data in 25 GPS reference stations of China have been analyzed by calculating GPS position coordinate time-series with GIPSY. Result shows there is an obvious trend variation in such time-series. The trend variations of time series along the longitude and latitude coordinate reflect the motion of each position in the global-plate, in which the trend variation in the vertical direction reveals some large-scale construction information or reflects the local movement around the positions. The analysis also shows that such time-series have a variation cycle of nearly 1.02 a, but the reason still remains to be further studied. At the end of this paper, response of the time-series of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake was analyzed, and the seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake, according to the time proceeding and the feature of anomaly, was divided into 3 phases—changes in blocks with forces, strain accumulation, quick accumulation and slow release of energy. At the initial stage of seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 earthquake and at the imminent earthquake, coseismic process as well as during the post earthquake recovery, anomaly in vertical direction is always in a majority. The anomalous movement in vertical direction at the initial stage resulted in a blocking between faults, while at the middle stage of seismogenic process, the differential movement between blocks are in a majority, which is the major reason causing energy accumulating at the blocking stage of faults. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074024 and 40304002).     

Comprehensive study on stability of deep crust and unstable behavior of earthquake source by both failure mechanism and frictional sliding mechanism

In this paper the relation between fault movement and stress state in deep crust is discussed, based on synthetic analysis of the crustal stresses measured over the world and the concerned data of focal mechanism. Using Coulomb criterion for shear failure and frictional slip, analytical expressions for estimating stabilities of intact rock and existing fault in the crust and for identifying the type of faulting (normal, strike-slip or thrust fault) are derived. By defining the Failure FunctionF _m and the Fraction FunctionF _f, which may describe steadiness of crustal rock and existing fault, respectively, a synthetic model is set up to consider both fracturing mechanism and the sliding mechanism. By this model, a method to study stability and unstable behavior of crustal rock and fault at different depths is given. According to the above model, quantitative study on the crustal stability in the North China plain is made in terms of the measured data of hydraulic fracturing stress, pore-fluid pressure, terrestrical heat flow in this region. The functionsF _m andF _f and the shear stresses on faults with different strike angle and dip angle at various depths in this region are calculated. In the calculation the constraint condition of fault movement obeys Byerlee’s Law, and the depth-dependent nonlinear change in the vertical stress due to inhomogeneity of crustal density and the high anomalous pore-fluid pressure in deep crust of this region are considered. The conclusions are: the unstable behavior of the crust in the North China plain is not failure of crustal rock but slip on existing fault; the depth range where stick-slip of fault may happen is about from 8 to 20 km or more; stability of steep fault is lower than that of gentle sloping fault; the shear stresses in the range where may occur stick-slip are nearly horizontal; the steep faults trending from NNE to NE in this region are liable to produce strong earthquakes, whose co-seismic faultings are, for the most part, right lateral slip; the change in pore-fluid pressure in depth remarkably affects the stability of the crust and the increase in pore-fluid pressure, therefore, would be an important factor exciting strong earthquake in this region. The above theoretical inferences are consistent with the data measured in this region. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologia Sinica,13, 450–461, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Seismotectonic environment of occurring the February 3, 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, Yunnan Province

Lijiang-Daju fault, the seismogenic fault of the 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, can be divided into Lijiang-Yuhu segment in the south and Yuhu-Daju segment in the north. The two segments show clear difference in geological tectonics, but have the similar dynamic features. Both normal dip-slip and sinistral strike-slip coexist on the fault plane. This kind of movement started at the beginning of the Quaternary (2.4～2.5 Ma B.P.). As to the tectonic types, the detachment fault with low angle was developed in the Early Pleistocene and the normal fault with high angle only after the Mid-Pleistocene (0.8 Ma B.P.). Based on the horizontal displacements of gullies and the vertical variance of planation surfaces cross the Lijiang-Daju fault at east piedmont of Yulong-Haba range, the average horizontal and vertical slip rates are calculated. They are 0.84 mm/a and 0.70 mm/a since the Quaternary and 1.56 mm/a and 1.69 mm/a since the Mid-Pleistocene. The movements of the nearly N-S-trending Lijiang-Daju fault are controlled not only by the regional stress field, but also by the variant movement between the Yulong-Haba range and Lijiang basin. The two kinds of dynamic processes form the characteristics of seismotectonic environment of occurring the 1996 Lijiang earthquake.     

Faulting on the Anninghe fault zone, Southwest China in Late Quaternary and its movement model

The Anninghe fault is one of the significant earthquake-generating fault zones in the Southwest China. Local his-torical record shows that a M≥7 strong earthquake occurred in the year of 1536. On the basis of the detailed air-photographic interpretation and field investigation, we have acquired the following knowledge: 1 The average sinistral strike-slip rate since the Late Pleistocene is about 3~7 mm/a; 2 There is important reverse faulting along the fault zone besides the main left-lateral strike-slip motion, and the shortening rate across the Anninghe fault zone due to the reverse faulting is about 1.7~4.0 mm/a. If the Xianshuihe fault zone is simply partitioned into the Anninghe and Daliangshan faults, we can also get a slip rate of 3~7 mm/a along the Daliangshan fault zone, which is the same as that on the Anninghe fault zone. Moreover, on the basis of our field investigation and the latest knowledge concerning the active tectonics of Tibetan crust, we create a dynamic model for the Anninghe fault zone.     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er, Yunnan Province, China M S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province MS6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, land-slide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mecha-nism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er MS6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of MS≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3~12 km, predominantly within 3~10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic     

Source process of the 14 November 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M S=8.1 earthquake

Based on digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by 28 long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network, source process of the November 14, 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M _S=8.1 (M _W=7.8) earthquake is estimated by a new inversion method. The result shows that the earthquake is a very complex rupture event. The source rupture initiated at the hypocenter (35.95°N, 90.54°E, focal depth 10 km, by USGS NEIC), and propagated to the west at first. Then, in several minutes to a hundred minutes and over a large spatial range, several rupture growth points emerged in succession at the eastern end and in the central part of the finite fault. And then the source rupture propagated from these rupture growth points successively and, finally, stopped in the area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position (35.80°N, 92.91°E, focal depth 15 km, by Harvard CMT). The entire rupture lasted for 142 s, and the source process could be roughly separated into three stages: The first stage started at the 0 s and ended at the 52 s, lasting for 52 s and releasing approximately 24.4% of the total moment; The second stage started at the 55 s and ended at the 113 s, lasting for 58 s and releasing approximately 56.5% of the total moment; The third stage started at the 122 s and ended at the 142 s, lasting for 20 s and releasing approximately 19.1% of the total moment. The length of the ruptured fault plane is about 490 km. The maximum width of the ruptured fault plane is about 45 km. The rupture mainly occurred within 30 km in depth under the surface of the Earth. The average static slip in the underground rocky crust is about 1.2 m with the maximum static slip 3.6 m. The average static stress drop is about 5 MPa with the maximum static stress drop 18 MPa. The maximum static slip and the maximum stress drop occurred in an area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103066) and Foundation of the Seismic Pattern and Digital Seismic Data Application Research Office of Institute of Earthquake Science of the China Earthquake Administration.     

Spatial and temporal rupture process of the January 26, 2001, Gujarat, India, M S=7.8 earthquake

The source parameters, such as moment tensor, focal mechanism, source time function (STF) and temporal-spatial rupture process, were obtained for the January 26, 2001, India, M _S=7.8 earthquake by inverting waveform data of 27 GDSN stations with epicentral distances less than 90°. Firstly, combining the moment tensor inversion, the spatial distribution of intensity, disaster and aftershocks and the orientation of the fault where the earthquake lies, the strike, dip and rake of the seismogenic fault were determined to be 92°, 58° and 62°, respectively. That is, this earthquake was a mainly thrust faulting with the strike of near west-east and the dipping direction to south. The seismic moment released was 3.5×10²⁰ Nm, accordingly, the moment magnitude M _W was calculated to be 7.6. And then, 27 P-STFs, 22 S-STFs and the averaged STFs of them were determined respectively using the technique of spectra division in frequency domain and the synthetic seismogram as Green’s functions. The analysis of the STFs suggested that the earthquake was a continuous event with the duration time of 19 s, starting rapidly and ending slowly. Finally, the temporal-spatial distribution of the slip on the fault plane was imaged from the obtained P-STFs and S-STFs using an time domain inversion technique. The maximum slip amplitude on the fault plane was about 7 m. The maximum stress drop was 30 MPa, and the average one over the whole rupture area was 7 MPa. The rupture area was about 85 km long in the strike direction and about 60 km wide in the down-dip direction, which, equally, was 51 km deep in the depth direction. The rupture propagated 50 km eastwards and 35 km westwards. The main portion of the rupture area, which has the slip amplitude greater than 0.5 m, was of the shape of an ellipse, its major axis oriented in the slip direction of the fault, which indicated that the rupture propagation direction was in accordance with the fault slip direction. This phenomenon is popular for strike-slip faulting, but rather rare for thrust faulting. The eastern portion of the rupture area above the initiation point was larger than the western portion below the initiation point, which was indicative of the asymmetrical rupture. In other words, the rupturing was kind of unilateral from west to east and from down to up. From the snapshots of the slip-rate variation with time and space, the slip rate reached the largest at the 4th second, that was 0.2 m/s, and the rupture in this period occurred only around the initiation point. At the 6th second, the rupture around the initiation point nearly stopped, and started moving outwards. The velocity of the westward rupture was smaller than that of the eastward rupture. Such rupture behavior like a circle mostly stopped near the 15th second. After the 16th second, only some patches of rupture distributed in the outer region. From the snapshots of the slip variation with time and space, the rupture started at the initiation point and propagated outwards. The main rupture on the area with the slip amplitude greater than 5 m extended unilaterally from west to east and from down to up between the 6th and the 10th seconds, and the western segment extended a bit westwards and downwards between the 11th and the 13th seconds. The whole process lasted about 19 s. The rupture velocity over the whole rupture process was estimated to be 3.3 km/s. Foundation item: 973 Project (G1998040705) from Ministry of Science and Technology, P. R. China, and the National Science Foundation of China under grant No.49904004. Contribution No. 02FE2026, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

Similarities between strike-slip faults at different scales and a simple age determining method for active faults

Abstract Several differently scaled strike‐slip faults were examined. The faults shared many geometric features, such as secondary fractures and linkage structures (damage zones). Differences in fault style were not related to specific scale ranges. However, it was recognized that differences in style may occur in different tectonic settings (e.g. dilational/contractional relays or wall/linkage/tip zones), different locations along the master fault or different fault evolution stages. Fractal dimensions were compared for two faults (Gozo and San Andreas), which supports the idea of self‐similarity. Fractal dimensions for traces of faults and fractures of damage zones were higher (D ～1.35) than for the main fault traces (D ～1.005) because of increased complexity due to secondary faults and fractures. Based on the statistical analysis of another fault evolution study, single event movements in earthquake faults typically have a maximum earthquake slip : rupture length ratio of approximately 10^?4, although this has only been established for large earthquake faults because of limited data. Most geological faults have a much higher maximum cumulative displacement : fault length ratio; that is, approximately 10^?2 to 10^?1 (e.g. Gozo, ～10^?2; San Andreas, ～10^?1). The final cumulative displacement on a fault is produced by accumulation of slip along ruptures. Hence, using the available information from earthquake faults, such as earthquake slip, recurrence interval, maximum cumulative displacement and fault length, the approximate age of active faults can be estimated. The lower limit of estimated active fault age is expressed with maximum cumulative displacement, earthquake slip and recurrence interval as T ? (d_max /u) · I(M).     

丽江M_S7.0地震余震深度揭示出的中地壳脆塑性转化特征

1996年丽江MS7.0地震的余震深度分布明显具有时间依赖性,主震发生后短时间内余震震源深度较深,随着时间的延续,余震震源深度变得越来越浅。余震的这种深度分布受地壳脆塑性转化带深度控制,而脆塑性转化带的深度变化与地震前后断层的应变速率有关。由震后GPS地表变形数据得到的地表变形模型表明,震后地表变形主要来自地壳深部,震后滑动与地壳深部弹性松弛有关。根据鲜水河断层地表的滑动数据和按Marone's(1991)给出的方程确定的震后滑动模型,估计的应变速率显示,主震发生后应变速率较高,随时间延续,应变速率逐渐下降。基于地壳P波速度结构和利用热流数据估计的丽江地区地壳温度,采用含水石英的塑性流变参数,估计了中地壳脆塑性转化带深度随震后应变速率的变化。结果表明,主震震源深度与余震深度分布下限与中地壳脆塑性转化带的深度随时间变化趋势一致。由于断层的震后快速滑动致使断层带深部具有很高的应变速率,高应变速率引起断层脆塑性转化带深度下移,主震之后短时间内发生了较深的余震;随着震后时间的延续,断层逐渐进入蠕变阶段,断层滑动速率逐渐减小,地壳应变速率逐渐降低,断层脆塑性转化带也逐渐恢复到间震期的深度,相应余震深度随之变化。因此,余震分布的深度变化是中地壳流变结构和脆塑性转化带深度变化的直接反映。     

A new technique for moment tensor inversion with applications to the 2008 Wenchuan M S8.0 earthquake sequence

A MS8.0 earthquake occurred in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China, on May 12, 2008, and subsequently, numerous aftershocks followed. We obtained the moment tensor solutions and source time functions (STFs) for the Wenchuan earthquake and its seven larger aftershocks (MS5.0~6.0) by a new technique of moment tensor inversion using the broadband and long-period seismic waveform data from the Global Seismic Network (GSN). Firstly, the theoretical background and technical flow of the new technique was briefly introduced, and an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence was employed to illustrate the real procedure for inverting the moment tensor; secondly, the moment tensor solutions and STFs of the eight events, including the main shock, were presented, and finally, the interpretation of the results was made. The agreement of our results with the GCMT results indicates the new approach is efficient and feasible. By using this approach, not only the moment tensor solution can be obtained but also the STF can be retrieved; the inverted STFs indicate that the source rupture process may be com-plicated even for the moderate earthquakes. The inverted focal mechanisms of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence show that the most of the aftershocks occurred in the main faults of the Longmenshan fault zone with predomi-nantly thrustingwith minor right-lateral strike-slip component, but some of them may have occurred in the sub-faults with strike-slip faulting in the vicinity of the main faults.     

Constraints on rupture speed of the 2001 M S 8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake by co-seismic surface rupture slip displacements based on the slip-weakening mechanism with frictional undershoot involved

With co-seismic surface rupture slip displacements provided by the field observation for the 2001 MS8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake, this paper estimates the rupture speed on the main faulting segment with a long straight fault trace on the surface based on a simple slip-weakening rupture model, in which the frictional overshoot or undershoot are involved in consideration of energy partition during the earthquake faulting. In contrast to the study of Bouchon and Vallée, in which the rupture propagation along the main fault could exceed the local shear-wave speed, perhaps reach the P-wave speed on a certain section of fault, our results show that, under a slip-weakening assumption combined with a frictional undershoot (partial stress drop model), average rupture speed should be equal to or less than the Rayleigh wave speed with a high seismic radiation efficiency, which is consistent with the result derived by waveform inversion and the result estimated from source stress field. Associated with the surface rupture mechanism, such as partial stress drop (frictional undershoot) associated with the apparent stress, an alternative rupture mechanism based on the slip-weakening model has also been discussed.     

THE SEISMOGENIC ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS OF LUDIAN MS6.5 EARTHQUAKE USING GRAVITY DATA

The main rupture of Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake is directed to the northwest, which occurred in the east of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone. The epicenter is in the transitional zone of the Sichuan-Yunnan block and the South China block, where there are many slip and nappe structures. Some controversy still remains on the earthquake tectonic environment. So, Bouguer gravity anomalies calculated by EGM2008 were broken down into 1-5 ranks using the way of Discrete Wavelet Transform(DWT), then we get the lateral heterogeneity in different depths of the crust. The distribution characteristics of Bouguer gravity anomaly are analyzed using measured gravity profile data. We also get its normalized full gradient(NFG)picture, and study the differences between different depths in crust. The results show that: (1)the characteristic of Buoguer gravity anomaly in southwest to northeast is high-low-high between the Lianfeng Fault(LFF)and Zhaotong-Ludian Fault(ZLF). The mainshock and aftershocks are distributed in the middle of the low-value zone, which means that the east moving materials of Qinghai-Tibet plateau broke through the southern section of Lianfeng Fault(LFF), moving along the Baogunao-Xiaohe zone(low-value belt)to the southeast, stopped by the Zhaotong-Ludian Fault(ZLF), and then earthquake occurred.(2)The third-order discrete wavelet transform(DWT)details show that: there is a good consistency between the negative gravity anomaly in upper crust and the distribution of major faults, which reflects that the rupture caused by the movements of the faults in crust has reduced gravity anomaly. There is a NW-trending negative anomaly belt near the epicenter, which may has some relationship to the southward development of the Daliangshan Fault(DLSF). So we speculate that the southward movement of Daliangshan Fault is the main direct force source of Ludian earthquake.(3)In the picture of the fourth-order DWT details, there is an obvious positive gravity anomaly under the epicenter of Ludian earthquake, which confirms the presence of a high-density body in the middle crust. While the fifth-order DWT details show that: A positive anomaly belt is below the epicenter too, which may be caused by mantle material intruding to the lower crust. Tensile force in crust caused by mantle uplift and extrusion-torsion force caused by Indian plate push are the main force source in the tensile and strike slip movement of the Ludian earthquake.(4)The normalized total gradient of Bouguer gravity anomalies of Huili-Ludian-Zhaotong profile shows that: there is obvious ‘deformation’ in the Xiaojiang fault zone which dips to the east and controls the local crust movement. There is a local ‘constant body’ at the bottom of the epicenter. The stable constant body in density has limiting effects to the earthquake rupture, which is the reason that the earthquake rupture' scale in strike and in depth are limited.(5)The ability of earthquake preparation in Zhaotong-Ludian Fault is lower than the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone, and the maximum earthquake capacity in this area should be around magnitude 7.     

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with MS≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004,for different se-quence types and different rupture modes of the main shock,the relationship between aftershock distribution size Rand the magnitude of the main shock M0 has been studied statistically.Considering the rupture mode of the mainshock,we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and M0 under 95%confidence level for differentsequence types.Qualitatively,lgR,the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size,is positively correlative to theM0,but the data distribution is dispersed.Viewing from different sequence types,the correlation between R and M0is very weak for isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence,R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km;For main-shock-aftershock type(MAT),lgR is positively correlative to M0;For multiple main shock type(MMT),the core-lation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km,whileit shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3.The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of differentsequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same.But for dip-slip(mostly are thrust mechanisms),the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT.Comparing with previous results,it indicates that,when M0is large enough,R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of themain shock.     

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (MS=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence"

IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province…     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. Foundation item: Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406). Contribution No. 05FE3010, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

Effective relaxation time and viscosity of the earth inferred from the postseismic vertical deformations of the 1990 M S=7.0 Gonghe earthquake

The postseismic vertical deformation rates of the 1990 Gonghe M _S=7.0 earthquake appears to have decreased exponentially. Based on Okada’s coseismic surface displacement solution caused by a uniform fault slip in an elastic homogeneous half space, we derived its postseismic surface displacement by using a single-layer standard linear solid model, and further derived a simplified formula for determining the effective relaxation time and viscosity of the earth, which is independent of the dislocation parameters of the causative fault. From the postseismic vertical deformation of the 1990 Gonghe earthquake, we inferred that the effective relaxation time defined by τ=η/μ is 2.6 years, and the effective viscosity η is about 10¹⁸ Pa · s. This work was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation under the grants 92088 and 196098.     

安徽淮南地区明龙山-上窑断裂第四纪活动特征

明龙山-上窑断裂是一条逆走滑性质的第四纪活动断裂,长约68km,走向300°-315°。本文在卫星影像解译的基础上,通过野外调查,确定了该断裂的几何展布和分段特征,初步将断裂分为明龙山、上窑、凤阳山3条次级断裂段。通过对断裂经过处的采石场进行详细追索,我们对典型断层剖面进行了描述并采集了断层泥ESR样品,得到的测年结果为（243±24）ka和（126±15）ka,由于淮南地区是典型的中等强度地震活动区,断层晚第四纪以来活动强度较弱,这些测年结果虽不能代表断层最后一次微弱活动的时代,但可以确定断层最后一次强烈活动时代为中更新世晚期至晚更新世早期。结合前人对1831年凤台M_S 6?级地震极震区位置、等震线形态研究及本文对极震区附近断裂展布和活动性的对比分析,我们认为明龙山-上窑断裂为本次地震发震构造的可能性最大。