Snow accumulation and its moisture origin over Dome Argus, Antarctica

The spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation near Dome Argus, Antarctica, is assessed using new snow pit and stake measurement data together with existing snow pit, ice core and automatic weather station records. Snow accumulation rate shows large inter-annual variations, but stable multi-decadal levels over the last seven centuries. Spatial variations in snow accumulation within the space of 50 km of Dome Argus are relatively small, probably thanks to the smooth topography. A comparison of theses accumulation observations with ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) suggests ECMWF reanalysis captures the seasonal variations, but underestimates the overall snow accumulation at Dome Argus by ~50 %. The moisture sources for precipitation over Dome Argus are examined by means of a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic, based on the tracing of specific humidity changes along air parcel trajectories, for the period 2000–2004 using operational ECMWF analysis data. Dome Argus mainly receives moisture from the mid-latitude (46 ± 4°S) South Indian Ocean, with a seasonal latitudinal shift of about 6°. Compared to other central East Antarctic deep ice core sites such as Dome F, Dome C, Vostok, and EPICA Dronning Maud Land, Dome Argus has a more southerly moisture origin, probably due to topographic influences on the moisture transport paths. These results have important implications for the interpretation of future ice cores at Dome Argus.     

Stable isotopes in surface snow along a traverse route from Zhongshan station to Dome A, East Antarctica

Samples of surface snow were collected for stable isotope analysis along the traverse route from Zhongshan to Dome A (East Antarctica) from Dec 28th, 2007 to Feb. 8th, 2008. The local relationship between δD and surface temperature is established to be 6.4 ± 0.2 ‰ per °C, very similar to the average for East Antarctic. The deuterium excess shows a pattern of high values over Antarctica, particularly at Dome A. We compare our data with an atmospheric general circulation model which includes stable water isotopes (ECHAM5-wiso). The model simulation captures the right levels of δD, but overestimates δ¹⁸O. This study provides support for the ongoing deep ice core project at Dome A.     

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T_2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T_2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year^?1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year^?1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between $\Updelta$ SMB and $\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}$ of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year^?1 K^?1 is found.     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

 南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station

Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R~2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m~(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m~(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.     

Past Antarctic Peninsula climate (1850–1980) deduced from an ice core isotope record

A detailed climatic study of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1850 to 1980 has been carried out through the analysis of deuterium content in the snow layers of Dalinger Dome (James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula). It is based on the high correlation found between mean deuterium contents at this site and temperature data from stations within this region going back as far as April 1903 for the Argentine Orcadas station.The strong correlation between isotopes and temperatures first reveals a 1956 isotope reference for the region considered. Secondly, the isotope-temperature gradient is estimated at 4.5%. °C^–1 for deuterium.After checking that the major temperature anomalies on the Antarctic Peninsula recorded since 1904 (according to available data) correspond to annual mean stable isotope peaks at Dalinger Dome, the amplitude of four prior anomalies are estimated in °C. Finally, a cooling of about 2 °C since 1850 is suggested for the region.     

Fluctuations of snow accumulation in the Antarctic and sea level pressure in the Southern Hemisphere in the last 100 years

This paper summarizes the long-term fluctuations of snow accumulation in the Antarctic and analyzes its correlation with the sea level pressure (SLP) in the middle latitude (40°–50° S) of the Southern Hemisphere. Stratigraphic data which were compiled from studies on ice cores and snow-pits at eight stations in the Antarctic were used in the present study. It was found that the data concerning fluctuations in snow accumulation for East Antarctica showed correlations, whereas no such correlation was observed for the data from West Antarctica.This study shows possible relationships between snow accumulation in the Antarctic and SLP in the middle latitudes. The fluctuations of accumulation at South Pole, Dome C, Wilkes and South Ice Point show correlations with SLP over a large area in the 40°–50° S latitudinal zone. For the long-term fluctuations of SLP in the 40°–50 ° S latitudinal zone, a zonal fluctuation with wave number zero structure and a longitudinal variation of SLP anomalies due to their out-of-phase-fluctuation between the Pacific and the Indian Oceans were observed. The temporal scales for these fluctuations were found to be in the order of 20–30 years and 40–60 years, respectively. The influences of these two modes on the behaviour of snow accumulation in the Antarctic is also discussed.Now at Kitami Institute of Technology, Kitami, Hokkaido, Japan.     

Recent southern Indian Ocean climate variability inferred from a Law Dome ice core: new insights for the interpretation of coastal Antarctic isotopic records

Stable isotopes in water have been measured along a very high accumulation ice core from Law Dome on the east Antarctic coast. These enable a detailed comparison of the isotopic records over sixty years (1934–1992) with local (Antarctic station data) and remote meteorological observations (atmospheric reanalyses and sea-surface temperature estimates) on a seasonal to inter-annual time scale. Using both observations and isotopic atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) results, we quantify the relationships between stable isotopes (d ¹⁸O, dD and deuterium excess; d = dD –8 × d ¹⁸O) with site and source temperature at seasonal and decadal time scales, showing the large imprint of source conditions on Law Dome isotopes. These calibrations provide new insights for the quantitative interpretation of temporal isotopic fluctuations from coastal Antarctic ice cores. An abrupt change in the local meridional atmospheric circulation is clearly identified from Law Dome deuterium excess during the 1970s and analysed using GCM simulations.     

Climate-related variations in crustal trace elements in Dome C (East Antarctica) ice during the past 672 kyr

Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U were determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS) in various sections of the 3,270 m deep ice core recently drilled at Dome C on the high East Antarctic plateau as part of the EPICA program. The sections were dated from 263 kyr bp (depth of 2,368 m) to 672 kyr bp (depth of 3,062 m). When combined with the data previously obtained by Gabrielli and co-workers for the upper 2,193 m of the core, it gives a detailed record for these elements during a 672-kyr period from the Holocene back to Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 16.2. Concentrations and fallout fluxes of all elements are found to be highly variable with low values during the successive interglacial periods and much higher values during the coldest periods of the last eight climatic cycles. Crustal enrichment factors indicates that rock and soil dust is the dominant source for Fe, Rb, Ba and U whatever the period and for Cr during the glacial maxima. The relationship between Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U concentrations and the deuterium content of the ice appears to be similar before and after the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, around 430 kyr bp). Mean concentration values observed during the successive interglacials from the Holocene to MIS 15.5 appear to vary from one interglacial to another at least for part of the elements. Concentrations observed during the successive glacial maxima suggest a decreasing trend from the most recent glacial maxima (MIS 2.2 and 4.2) to the oldest glacial maxima such as MIS 14.2, 14.4 and 16.2, which could be linked with changes in the size distribution of dust particles transported from mid-latitude areas to the East Antarctic ice cap.     

A continuous simulation of global ice volume over the past 1 million years with 3-D ice-sheet models

Sea-level records show large glacial-interglacial changes over the past million years, which on these time scales are related to changes of ice volume on land. During the Pleistocene, sea-level changes induced by ice volume are largely caused by the waxing and waning of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the individual contributions of ice in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are poorly constrained. In this study, for the first time a fully coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models is used, simulating glaciations on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica. The ice-sheet models use a combination of the shallow ice and shelf approximations to determine sheet, shelf and sliding velocities. The framework consists of an inverse forward modelling approach to derive a self-consistent record of temperature and ice volume from deep-sea benthic δ¹⁸O data over the past 1 million years, a proxy for ice volume and temperature. It is shown that for both eustatic sea level and sea water δ¹⁸O changes, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets are responsible for the largest part of the variability. The combined contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is about 10 % for sea level and about 20 % for sea water δ¹⁸O during glacial maxima. However, changes in interglacials are mainly caused by melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with an average time lag of 4 kyr between melt and temperature. Furthermore, we have tested the separate response to changes in temperature and sea level for each ice sheet, indicating that ice volume can be significantly influenced by changes in eustatic sea level alone. Hence, showing the importance of a simultaneous simulation of all four ice sheets. This paper describes the first complete simulation of global ice-volume variations over the late Pleistocene with the possibility to model changes above and below present-day ice volume, constrained by observations of benthic δ¹⁸O proxy data.     

Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level rise. Glacier volume changes are calculated with a surface mass balance model combined with volume-area scaling, applied to 89 glaciers in different climatic regions. The mass balance model is based on a simplified energy balance approach, with separated contributions by net solar radiation and the combined other fluxes. Future mass balance is calculated from anomalies in air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity, taken from eight global climate models forced with the A1B emission scenario. Regional and global sea-level contributions are obtained by scaling the volume changes at the modelled glaciers to all glaciers larger than 0.1 km² outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This results in a global value of 0.102 ± 0.028 m (multi-model mean and standard deviation) relative sea-level equivalent for the period 2012–2099, corresponding to 18 ± 5 % of the estimated total volume of glaciers. Glaciers in the Antarctic, Alaska, Central Asia and Greenland together account for 65 ± 4 % of the total multi-model mean projected sea-level rise. The projected sea-level contribution is 35 ± 17 % larger when only anomalies in air temperature are taken into account, demonstrating an important compensating effect by increased precipitation and possibly reduced atmospheric transmissivity. The variability in projected precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity changes is especially large in the Arctic regions, making the sea-level contribution for these regions particularly sensitive to the climate model used. Including additional uncertainties in the modelling procedure and the input data, the total uncertainty estimate for the future projections becomes ±0.063 m.     

High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries

About 75 % of the Antarctic surface mass gain occurs over areas below 2,000 m asl, which cover 40 % of the grounded ice-sheet. As the topography is complex in many of these regions, surface mass balance modelling is highly dependent on horizontal resolution, and studying the impact of Antarctica on the future rise in sea level requires physical approaches. We have developed a computationally efficient, physical downscaling model for high-resolution (15 km) long-term surface mass balance (SMB) projections. Here, we present results of this model, called SMHiL (surface mass balance high-resolution downscaling), which was forced with the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to assess Antarctic SMB variability in the twenty first and the twenty second centuries under two different scenarios. The higher resolution of SMHiL better reproduces the geographical patterns of SMB and increase significantly the averaged SMB over the grounded ice-sheet for the end of the twentieth century. A comparison with more than 3200 quality-controlled field data shows that LMDZ4 and SMHiL reproduce the observed values equally well. Nevertheless, field data below 2,000 m asl are too scarce to efficiently show the added value of SMHiL and measuring the SMB in these undocumented areas should be a future scientific priority. Our results suggest that running LMDZ4 at a finer resolution (15 km) may give a future increase in SMB in Antarctica that is about 30 % higher than by using its standard resolution (60 km) due to the higher increase in precipitation in coastal areas at 15 km. However, a part (～15 %) of these discrepancies could be an artefact from SMHiL since it neglects the foehn effect and likely overestimates the precipitation increase. Future changes in the Antarctic SMB at low elevations will result from the competition between higher snow accumulation and runoff. For this reason, developing downscaling models is crucial to represent processes in sufficient detail and correctly model the SMB in coastal areas.     

Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet.     

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate: modeling experiments mimicking the mid-Miocene

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is used to study the influence of the Antarctica ice sheet in a configuration that mimics that of the early Miocene on the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Based on different climate simulations of the present day (CTR) and conducted with distinct Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS-EXP), it is found that the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS) induces warming of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces the meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the atmospheric transient low level eddy heat flux $[(\overline{v^{\prime}T^{\prime}})]$ and the eddy momentum flux $[(\overline{u^{\prime}v^{\prime}})]$ are reduced causing the reduced transport of heat from the mid-latitudes to the pole. The stationary flow and transient wave anomalies generate changes in the SSTs which modify the rate of deep water formation, strengthening the formation of the Antarctic Bottom Water. Substantial changes are predicted to occur in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport and a comparison between the total heat transport of the atmosphere-ocean system, as simulated by the AIS-EXP and the CTR runs, shows that the reduction of the AIS height leads to reduced Southern Hemisphere poleward and increased equatorward heat transport. These results are in agreement with reduced storm track activities and baroclinicity.     

The CO2-induced thickening/thinning of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as simulated by a GCM (CCMI) and an ice-sheet model

Scaling analysis shows that the mean thickness of an ice sheet depends on the product of two poorly known quantities, the ice viscosity and the net snow accumulation rate. We adjust the viscosity of an ice sheet in order to get a consistent value of this product for the present-day ice sheet volume and area given the net snow accumulation rate calculated by an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). We then hold this artificial rheology constant in further numerical experiments. We hope that in doing so we can partially compensate for systematic GCM errors in simulating the snow accumulation rate, and, therefore, thickening/thinning of ice sheets will depend mostly on the tendency in the net accumulation change rather than on its absolute value. Using this approach, the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to doubling CO₂ concentration is simulated and the horizontal distribution of possible thickening/thinning of polar ice obtained. We find that, initially, the region of thickening ice is close to the area of increased snowfall rate, but later it significantly changes under the influence of internal ice flow dynamics. The sea-level changes predicted by our experiments agree with some empirical estimates. The sensitivity experiment with assigned basal sliding does not show significant changes in the large-scale ice topography, meaning, for example, that there is no indication of a possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. At the same time, the regional thickening/thinning of ice (and consequently the sea-level change) depends strongly on processes at the ice sheet bottom.     

Model support for forcing of the 8.2 ka event by meltwater from the Hudson Bay ice dome

Previous model experiments of the 8.2 ka event forced by the drainage of Lake Agassiz often do not produce climate anomalies as long as those inferred from proxies. In addition to the Agassiz forcing, there is new evidence for significant amounts of freshwater entering the ocean at 8.2 ka from the disintegration of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to test the contribution of this additional meltwater flux. Similar to previous model experiments, we find that the estimated freshwater forcing from Lake Agassiz is capable of sustaining ocean and climate anomalies for only two to three decades, much shorter than the event duration of ~150 years in proxies. Using new estimates of the LIS freshwater flux (~0.13 Sv for 100 years) from the collapse of the Hudson Bay ice dome in addition to the Agassiz drainage, the CCSM3 generates climate anomalies with a magnitude and duration that match within error those from proxies. This result is insensitive to the duration of freshwater release, a major uncertainty, if the total volume remains the same. An analysis of the modeled North Atlantic freshwater budget indicates that the Agassiz drainage is rapidly transported out of the North Atlantic while the LIS contribution generates longer-lasting freshwater anomalies that are also subject to recirculation by the subtropical gyre back into the North Atlantic. Thus, the meltwater flux originating from the LIS appears to be more important than the Agassiz drainage in generating 8.2 ka climate anomalies and is one way to reconcile some model-data discrepancies.     

West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm

It is now almost 30 years since John Mercer (1978) first presented the idea that climate change could eventually cause a rapid deglaciation, or “collapse,” of a large part of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), raising world sea levels by 5 m and causing untold economic and social impacts. This idea, apparently simple and scientifically plausible, created a vision of the future, sufficiently alarming that it became a paradigm for a generation of researchers and provided an icon for the green movement. Through the 1990s, however, a lack of observational evidence for ongoing retreat in WAIS and improved understanding of the complex dynamics of ice streams meant that estimates of likelihood of collapse seemed to be diminishing. In the last few years, however, satellite studies over the relatively inaccessible Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have shown clear evidence of ice sheet retreat showing all the features that might have been predicted for emergent collapse. These studies are re-invigorating the paradigm, albeit in a modified form, and debate about the future stability of WAIS. Since much of WAIS appears to be unchanging, it may, no longer be reasonable to suggest there is an imminent threat of a 5-m rise in sea level resulting from complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but there is strong evidence that the Amundsen Sea embayment is changing rapidly. This area alone, contains the potential to raise sea level by around ~1.5 m, but more importantly it seems likely that it could, alter rapidly enough, to make a significant addition to the rate of sea-level rise over coming two centuries. Furthermore, a plausible connection between contemporary climate change and the fate of the ice sheet appears to be developing. The return of the paradigm presents a dilemma for policy-makers, and establishes a renewed set of priorities for the glaciological community. In particular, we must establish whether the hypothesized instability in WAIS is real, or simply an oversimplification resulting from inadequate understanding of the feedbacks that allow ice sheets to achieve equilibrium: and whether there is any likelihood that contemporary climate change could initiate collapse.     

Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene

Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per ~50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating (±33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum (Σ) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over ~5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference (Δ) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle–lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150–500 year power spectrum of the composite (Σ) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular internal oscillations probably related to the southern ocean-climatic system. On the other hand, the Δ dust composite parameter suggests a persistent atmospheric dipole over East Antarctica delivering coarser (finer) dust particles alternatively to Vostok and Dome C regions with a bi-centennial periodicity. Indeed, a seesaw phenomenon in dust size distribution was already observed at three East Antarctic sites during the last deglaciation (Delmonte et al. 2004b) and was interpreted as a progressive reduction of the eccentricity of the polar vortex with respect to the geographic south pole. Interestingly, the Δ parameter shows a pronounced 200-year oscillation mode, throwing new light on the unresolved question of a possible relationship between climate and solar activity.     

A GCM study of Antarctic glaciation

An atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM, has been used to investigate the possible effects of two specific tectonic mechanisms on Antarctic glaciation. These two mechanisms are: (1) closing the Drake Passage (connecting South America with Antarctica), which is assumed to effectively represent an increased meridional heat transport by the ocean; and (2) changing the elevation of Antarctica. Perpetual season (summer and winter) and seasonal cycle simulations with warmer sea-surface temperatures and no sea ice prescribed for mid- to high-latitude southern oceans have been made with both present-day (high) Antarctic elevations and with low Antarctic elevations (all points 200 m). The results suggest a relatively minor role for oceanic heat transport in the formation/elimination of Antarctic glaciation. That is, under the warmer conditions inferred to have prevailed prior to the opening of the Drake Passage, conditions would still have been favorable for the maintenance of an Antarctic ice-sheet. If anything, a moderate ocean warming would promote glaciation, by increasing snowfall. Lowering the elevation of Antarctica has a larger effect on the model simulations, reducing the likelihood of glacial conditions. In the absence of snowcover, summer temperatures over Antarctica can warm considerably, leading to a monsoon-like circulation. However, it may be difficult to achieve such snow-free conditions, even with greatly increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. A tundra-like climate is the closest the model has come to representing a non-glacial climate, even when both seasurface temperatures and elevations are maximally varied.