Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries

The aim of this work is to assess potential future Antarctic surface mass balance changes, the underlying mechanisms, and the impact of these changes on global sea level. To this end, this paper presents simulations of the Antarctic climate for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The simulations were carried out with a stretched-grid atmospheric general circulation model, allowing for high horizontal resolution (60 km) over Antarctica. It is found that the simulated present-day surface mass balance is skilful on continental scales. Errors on regional scales are moderate when observed sea surface conditions are used; more significant regional biases appear when sea surface conditions from a coupled model run are prescribed. The simulated Antarctic surface mass balance increases by 32 mm water equivalent per year in the next century, corresponding to a sea level decrease of 1.2 mm year⁻¹ by the end of the twenty-first century. This surface mass balance increase is largely due to precipitation changes, while changes in snow melt and turbulent latent surface fluxes are weak. The temperature increase leads to an increased moisture transport towards the interior of the continent because of the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air, but changes in atmospheric dynamics, in particular off the Antarctic coast, regionally modulate this signal.     

New estimations of precipitation and surface sublimation in East Antarctica from snow accumulation measurements

Surface mass balance (SMB) distribution and its temporal and spatial variability is an essential input parameter in mass balance studies. Different methods were used, compared and integrated (stake farms, ice cores, snow radar, surface morphology, remote sensing) at eight sites along a transect from Terra Nova Bay (TNB) to Dome C (DC) (East Antarctica), to provide detailed information on the SMB. Spatial variability measurements show that the measured maximum snow accumulation (SA) in a 15 km area is well correlated to firn temperature. Wind-driven sublimation processes, controlled by the surface slope in the wind direction, have a huge impact (up to 85% of snow precipitation) on SMB and are significant in terms of past, present and future SMB evaluations. The snow redistribution process is local and has a strong impact on the annual variability of accumulation. The spatial variability of SMB at the kilometre scale is one order of magnitude higher than its temporal variability (20–30%) at the centennial time scale. This high spatial variability is due to wind-driven sublimation. Compared with our SMB calculations, previous compilations generally over-estimate SMB, up to 65% in some areas.     

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T_2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T_2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year^?1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year^?1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between $\Updelta$ SMB and $\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}$ of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year^?1 K^?1 is found.     

A 40-year accumulation dataset for Adelie Land, Antarctica and its application for model validation

The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362?mm water equivalent a^?1. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40?years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27–125?km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation.     

A high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of the present climate over California

A fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system that consists of the regional spectral model and the regional ocean modeling system for atmosphere and ocean components, respectively, is applied to downscale the present climate (1985–1994) over California from a global simulation of the Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3). The horizontal resolution of the regional coupled modeling system is 10 km, while that of the CCSM3 is at a spectral truncation of T85 (approximately 1.4°). The effects of the coupling along the California coast in the boreal summer and winter are highlighted. Evaluation of the sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature climatology shows that alleviation of the warm bias along the California coast in the global model output is clear in the regional coupled model run. The 10-m wind is also improved by reducing the northwesterly winds along the coast. The higher resolution coupling effect on the temperature and specific humidity is the largest near the surface, while the significant impact on the wind magnitude appears at a height of approximately 850-hPa heights. The frequency of the Catalina Eddy and its duration are increased by more than 60 % in the coupled downscaling, which is attributed to enhanced offshore sea-breeze. Our study indicates that coupling is vital to regional climate downscaling of mesoscale phenomena over coastal areas.     

Interannual variability of the surface mass balance of West Antarctica from ITASE cores and ERA40 reanalyses, 1958–2000

Time series of west-Antarctic (WA) annual surface mass balance (SMB) from ITASE firn/ice cores are compared with the ECMWF 1958–2001 ERA40 reanalysis-based model forecasts. The ITASE series partially confirm the spatial structure of the signature of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in WA precipitation as previously identified in ERA40 and other models. However, an improvement of ERA40’s ability to reproduce the west-Antarctic SMB since the 1970s is evidenced and is probably related to the onset and increasing use of satellite data in late 1972 and 1978. Restricting the analysis to the 1973–2000 (satellite) period, interannual correlations between ITASE cores and ERA40 SMB series are generally significant (95% confidence level) but weak. The fraction of common variability increases when the series are spatially averaged, suggesting that small-scale perturbation (SSP) of the large-scale SMB variability significantly contributes to year-to-year variability in single core series. A comparison of stake network and core data from the South Pole suggests that SSP can almost fully obscure the large-scale component of the SMB variability as recorded in a single core. Because of SSP, the 1973–2000 period is too brief to verify whether all aspects of the WA large-scale signatures of ENSO and of the Antarctic Oscillation suggested by ERA40 are confirmed in the core series. More annually resolved field data from cores and stakes, spatially extended using high-resolution ground penetrating radar, are necessary to fully assess the relationship between the Antarctic SMB and the large-scale climate as currently suggested by meteorological and climate models.     

High-resolution precipitation and temperature downscaling for glacier models

The spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for local impact studies motivates the need for climate downscaling. For impact studies that involve glacier modelling, the sparsity or complete absence of climate monitoring activities within the regions of interest presents a substantial additional challenge. Downscaling methods for this application must be independent of climate observations and cannot rely on tuning to station data. We present new, computationally-efficient methods for downscaling precipitation and temperature to the high spatial resolutions required to force mountain glacier models. Our precipitation downscaling is based on an existing linear theory for orographic precipitation, which we modify for large study regions by including moist air tracking. Temperature is downscaled using an interpolation scheme that reconstructs the vertical temperature structure to estimate surface temperatures from upper air data. Both methods are able to produce output on km to sub-km spatial resolution, yet do not require tuning to station measurements. By comparing our downscaled precipitation (1 km resolution) and temperature (200 m resolution) fields to station measurements in southern British Columbia, we evaluate their performance regionally and through the annual cycle. Precipitation is improved by as much as 30% (median relative error) over the input reanalysis data and temperature is reconstructed with a mean bias of 0.5°C at locations with high vertical relief. Both methods perform best in mountainous terrain, where glaciers tend to be concentrated.     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

 南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

Evaluation of the antarctic surface wind climate from ERA reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT simulations based on automatic weather stations

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k _w . Very high values (k _w  > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes (k _w  < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s^?1. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets.     

Stable isotopes in surface snow along a traverse route from Zhongshan station to Dome A, East Antarctica

Samples of surface snow were collected for stable isotope analysis along the traverse route from Zhongshan to Dome A (East Antarctica) from Dec 28th, 2007 to Feb. 8th, 2008. The local relationship between δD and surface temperature is established to be 6.4 ± 0.2 ‰ per °C, very similar to the average for East Antarctic. The deuterium excess shows a pattern of high values over Antarctica, particularly at Dome A. We compare our data with an atmospheric general circulation model which includes stable water isotopes (ECHAM5-wiso). The model simulation captures the right levels of δD, but overestimates δ¹⁸O. This study provides support for the ongoing deep ice core project at Dome A.     

Snow precipitation at four ice core sites in East Antarctica: provenance, seasonality and blocking factors

Snow precipitation is the primary mass input to the Antarctic ice sheet and is one of the most direct climatic indicators, with important implications for paleoclimatic reconstruction from ice cores. Provenance of precipitation and the dynamic conditions that force these precipitation events at four deep ice core sites (Dome C, Law Dome, Talos Dome, and Taylor Dome) in East Antarctica were analysed with air mass back trajectories calculated using the Lagrangian model and the mean composite data for precipitation, geopotential height and wind speed field data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast from 1980 to 2001. On an annual basis, back trajectories showed that the Atlantic-Indian and Ross-Pacific Oceans were the main provenances of precipitation in Wilkes Land (80%) and Victoria Land (40%), respectively, whereas the greatest influence of the ice sheet was on the interior near the Vostok site (80%) and in the Southwest Ross Sea (50%), an effect that decreased towards the coast and along the Antarctic slope. Victoria Land received snowfall atypically with respect to other Antarctica areas in terms of pathway (eastern instead of western), seasonality (summer instead of winter) and velocity (old air age). Geopotential height patterns at 500 hPa at low (>10 days) and high (2–6 days) frequencies during snowfall cycles at two core sites showed large positive anomalies at low frequencies developing in the Tasman Sea-Eastern Indian Ocean at higher latitudes (60–70°S) than normal. This could be considered part of an atmospheric blocking event, with transient eddies acting to decelerate westerlies in a split region area and accelerate the flow on the flanks of the low-frequency positive anomalies.     

A permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica?

The magnitude and even direction of recent Antarctic climate change is still debated because the paucity of long and complete instrumental data records. While along Antarctic Peninsula a strong warming coupled with large retreat of glaciers occurred, in continental Antarctica a cooling was recently detected. Here, the first existing permafrost data set longer than 10 years recorded in continental Antarctica is presented. Since 1997 summer ground surface temperature showed a strong warming trend (0.31°C per year) although the air temperature was almost stable. The summer ground surface temperature increase seemed to be influenced mainly by the increase of the total summer radiation as confirmed also by the increase of the summer thawing degree days. In the same period the active layer exhibited a thickening trend (1 cm per year) comparable with the thickening rates observed in several Arctic locations where air warming occurred. At all the investigated depths permafrost exhibited an increase of mean annual temperature of approximately 0.1°C per year. The dichotomy between active layer thickness and air temperature trends can produce large unexepected and unmodelled impacts on ecosystems and CO₂ balance.     

A continuous simulation of global ice volume over the past 1 million years with 3-D ice-sheet models

Sea-level records show large glacial-interglacial changes over the past million years, which on these time scales are related to changes of ice volume on land. During the Pleistocene, sea-level changes induced by ice volume are largely caused by the waxing and waning of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the individual contributions of ice in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are poorly constrained. In this study, for the first time a fully coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models is used, simulating glaciations on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica. The ice-sheet models use a combination of the shallow ice and shelf approximations to determine sheet, shelf and sliding velocities. The framework consists of an inverse forward modelling approach to derive a self-consistent record of temperature and ice volume from deep-sea benthic δ¹⁸O data over the past 1 million years, a proxy for ice volume and temperature. It is shown that for both eustatic sea level and sea water δ¹⁸O changes, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets are responsible for the largest part of the variability. The combined contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is about 10 % for sea level and about 20 % for sea water δ¹⁸O during glacial maxima. However, changes in interglacials are mainly caused by melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with an average time lag of 4 kyr between melt and temperature. Furthermore, we have tested the separate response to changes in temperature and sea level for each ice sheet, indicating that ice volume can be significantly influenced by changes in eustatic sea level alone. Hence, showing the importance of a simultaneous simulation of all four ice sheets. This paper describes the first complete simulation of global ice-volume variations over the late Pleistocene with the possibility to model changes above and below present-day ice volume, constrained by observations of benthic δ¹⁸O proxy data.     

Extraordinary blowing snow transport events in East Antarctica

In the convergence slope/coastal areas of Antarctica, a large fraction of snow is continuously eroded and exported by wind to the atmosphere and into the ocean. Snow transport observations from instruments and satellite images were acquired at the wind convergence zone of Terra Nova Bay (East Antarctica) throughout 2006 and 2007. Snow transport features are well-distinguished in satellite images and can extend vertically up to 200 m as first-order quantitatively estimated by driftometer sensor FlowCapt?. Maximum snow transportation occurs in the fall and winter seasons. Snow transportation (drift/blowing) was recorded for ~80% of the time, and 20% of time recorded, the flux is >10^?2 kg m^?2 s^?1 with particle density increasing with height. Cumulative snow transportation is ~4 orders of magnitude higher than snow precipitation at the site. An increase in wind speed and transportation (~30%) was observed in 2007, which is in agreement with a reduction in observed snow accumulation. Extensive presence of ablation surface (blue ice and wind crust) upwind and downwind of the measurement site suggest that the combine processes of blowing snow sublimation and snow transport remove up to 50% of the precipitation in the coastal and slope convergence area. These phenomena represent a major negative effect on the snow accumulation, and they are not sufficiently taken into account in studies of surface mass balance. The observed wind-driven ablation explains the inconsistency between atmospheric model precipitation and measured snow accumulation value.     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level rise. Glacier volume changes are calculated with a surface mass balance model combined with volume-area scaling, applied to 89 glaciers in different climatic regions. The mass balance model is based on a simplified energy balance approach, with separated contributions by net solar radiation and the combined other fluxes. Future mass balance is calculated from anomalies in air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity, taken from eight global climate models forced with the A1B emission scenario. Regional and global sea-level contributions are obtained by scaling the volume changes at the modelled glaciers to all glaciers larger than 0.1 km² outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This results in a global value of 0.102 ± 0.028 m (multi-model mean and standard deviation) relative sea-level equivalent for the period 2012–2099, corresponding to 18 ± 5 % of the estimated total volume of glaciers. Glaciers in the Antarctic, Alaska, Central Asia and Greenland together account for 65 ± 4 % of the total multi-model mean projected sea-level rise. The projected sea-level contribution is 35 ± 17 % larger when only anomalies in air temperature are taken into account, demonstrating an important compensating effect by increased precipitation and possibly reduced atmospheric transmissivity. The variability in projected precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity changes is especially large in the Arctic regions, making the sea-level contribution for these regions particularly sensitive to the climate model used. Including additional uncertainties in the modelling procedure and the input data, the total uncertainty estimate for the future projections becomes ±0.063 m.     

Summertime atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of a blue ice area in Queen Maud Land,Antarctica

The surface wind field is an important factor controlling the surface mass balance of Antarctica. This paper focuses on the observed atmospheric circulation during summer of an Antarctic blue ice area in Queen Maud Land. Blue ice areas are characterised by a negative surface mass balance and henceforth provide an interesting location to study the influence of meteorological processes on large local mass balance gradients. During lapse conditions, synoptic forcing determines the surface-layer flow. No significant horizontal temperature gradient with coastal stations could be detected along isobaric surfaces, indicating weak or absent thermal wind. Observations performed at the coastal stations Halley and Georg von Neumayer show the pronounced effects of synoptic forcing. The surface winds in the valley of the blue ice area could be divided into two distinct flow patterns, occurring with about equal frequency during the experiment. Flow type I is associated with cyclonic activity at the coast, resulting in strong easterly winds, precipitation and drifting snow. Flow characteristics inside and outside of the valley are similar during these conditions. Flow type II occurs when a high pressure system develops in the Weddell Sea, weakening the free atmosphere geostrophic winds. A local circulation is able to develop inside the valley of the blue ice area during these tranquil conditions. The transition from flow type II to flow type I is associated with front-like phenomena inside the valley. Some simple theoretical considerations show that surface-layer stability and the upper air geostrophic wind determine the surface flow direction in the valley. Finally, the influence of the observed circulation on the energy and mass balance of the blue ice area is discussed.     

Downscaling large-scale NCEP CFS to resolve fine-scale seasonal precipitation and extremes for the crop growing seasons over the southeastern United States

Seasonally predicted precipitation at a resolution of 2.5° was statistically downscaled to a fine spatial scale of ~20 km over the southeastern United States. The downscaling was conducted for spring and summer, when the fine-scale prediction of precipitation is typically very challenging in this region. We obtained the global model precipitation for downscaling from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System (NCEP/CFS) retrospective forecasts. Ten member integration data with time-lagged initial conditions centered on mid- or late February each year were used for downscaling, covering the period from 1987 to 2005. The primary techniques involved in downscaling are Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis, multiple regression, and stochastic time series generation. Trained with observations and CFS data, CSEOF and multiple regression facilitated the identification of the statistical relationship between coarse-scale and fine-scale climate variability, leading to improved prediction of climate at a fine resolution. Downscaled precipitation produced seasonal and annual patterns that closely resemble the fine resolution observations. Prediction of long-term variation within two decades was improved by the downscaling in terms of variance, root mean square error, and correlation. Relative to the coarsely resolved unskillful CFS forecasts, the proposed downscaling drove a significant reduction in wet biases, and correlation increased by 0.1–0.5. Categorical predictability of seasonal precipitation and extremes (frequency of heavy rainfall days), measured with the Heidke skill score (HSS), was also improved by the downscaling. For instance, domain averaged HSS for two category predictability by the downscaling are at least 0.20, while the scores by the CFS are near zero and never exceed 0.1. On the other hand, prediction of the frequency of subseasonal dry spells showed limited improvement over half of the Georgia and Alabama region.     

Evaluating a modified point-based method to downscale cell-based climate variable data to high-resolution grids

To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets.