CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surface sensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the Indian Peninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period of SCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than in the Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in the Indochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while the occurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in the Indian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe have some connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the Indochina Peninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybe plays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that there exist maximum centers of TMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as the western Pacific,SCS,the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal,and their locations and strengths change significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset.A positive zonal deviation of TMLH occurs first in the Indochina Peninsula,apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula.The appearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with the summer monsoon onset.Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas,the TMLH increases gradually with a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon,and the rate of increase is significantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean,TMLH decreases before the monsoon onset,varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually after the ending of monsoon.Therefore,it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an important role in the maintenance of the summer monsoon,and its variation is an phenomenon accompanying the onset of summer monsoon.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) havebeen analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region. It is found that there exist maximum centers ofTMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as thewestern Pacific, SCS, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and their locations and strengthschange significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset. A positive zonal deviation of TMLHoccurs first in the Indochina Peninsula, apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula. Theappearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with thesummer monsoon onset. Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas, the TMLH increases graduallywith a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon, and the rate of increase issignificantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean, TMLH decreasesbefore the monsoon onset, varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually afterthe ending of monsoon. Therefore, it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an importantrole in the maintenance of the summer monsoon, and its variation is an phenomenon accompanyingthe onset of summer monsoon.     

BASIC CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES OF AIR-SEA HEAT EXCHANGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) REGION AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE SCS MONSOONS

By using the NCEP reanalysis data set in 1979-1995, the fluxes of the latent heat, thesensible heat and the net long-wave radiation in the South China Sea (SCS) are expanded by meansof EOF in order to discuss the basic climatological features in the SCS. The detailed analysis showsthat the air-sea heat exchanges in different SCS regions have different seasonal variations. Themiddle and the north of the SCS are the high value regions of the air-sea heat exchanges during thewinter and the summer monsoon periods, respectively, the seasonal variations of air-sea heatexchanges in the south of the SCS are small. In addition, the proportions of different componentsin the total air-sea heat exchanges have different seasonal variations in different regions. Theresults show that the SCS monsoon and the air-sea heat exchanges in the SCS region are theaccompaniments of each other, the great difference of the sensible heat flux between the IndochinaPeninsula and the SCS before the SCS summer monsoon onset may be one of the triggers of thelatter. There maintains a high value center of the sensible heat flux before the 13th dekad, itsdisappearing time consists with that of the summer monsoon onset. It means that as far as the SCSlocal conditions are concerned, the northwest of the Indochina Peninsula is probably a sensitiveregion to the SCS summer monsoon onset and the land may play a leading role in the SCS summermonsoon onset.     

亚洲季风区地面感热通量的区域变化特征

采用1979－1995年（缺1986、1987、1993）NCEP／NCAR再分析资料中的逐旬感热通量资料，对亚洲季风区地面感热通量的空间结构及时间演变进行了旋转经验正交函数（REOF）分析。结果表明：印度半岛和中南半岛地区感势通量的变化与亚洲季风的爆发及演变有密切关系，是季风爆发的主要关键区。这两个地区的感热积累是东亚季风爆发的触发因素之一，尤其是印度半岛北部感热通量的突变对印度夏季风演变十分重要。印度半岛北部与青藏高原西部的热力差异在季风的爆发和维持中占有重要地位。而东北亚与西北太平洋的热力差异只对东亚夏季风的演变有影响，与冬季风则无直接关联。在东亚季风的爆发中居主导地位的还是印度半岛北部和青藏高原西北部的感热加热作用。     

南海季风区地面温度变化特征及其与季风爆发的联系

分析1979年1月至1995年12月17a南海季风区修平均地面温度资料的时空变化特征发现，中南半岛西北部和印度半岛分别为地面修平均温度标准差的大值区，其位置和强度在南海季风爆发前后月份具有显著差异。从候平均温度纬圈偏差的时间演变来看，中南半岛地区纬圈温度偏差由正转负的时间早于印度半岛地区，并分别与南海夏季风和印度夏季风爆发的时间其本对应。在夏季风爆发之前，印度半岛和中南半岛地区的地面温度是逐候增加的，季风爆发以后地面温度迅速降低，而海洋上的表面温度增温幅度明显小于与其相邻地陆地，此外，从南海季风爆发早晚年中南半岛与南海地区表面温度距平差和各自温度距平的时间演变看，中南半岛地区地面温度的变化在触发南海季风爆发及其年际变化过程中可能起主导作用。     

1998年地面加热场的基本特征及其与南海夏季风爆发的可能联系

文中对 1 998年 1月 1日到 8月 31日共 2 4 3d的南海季风试验再分析资料的地面感热场和潜热场进行 EOF分析 ,由感热的第一特征向量场发现 ,中南半岛地区、青藏高原的东北部和印度半岛的大部分是感热通量大值区 ,而海洋上是小值区 ,海陆热力差异十分明显 ,这种海陆感热对比是促使季风爆发的大背景。由感热的时间经度演变图可以看出 ,中南半岛所在经度范围内南北连续的感热分布对南海季风的早爆发具有重要作用。由温度平流项的分布可发现 ,中南半岛的加热作用明显早于青藏高原地区 ,使得中南半岛对南海季风的早期爆发有重要作用 ,而青藏高原对于南海季风的维持具有重要意义。由于印度半岛与中南半岛的海陆分布的差异 ,使得两个地区的温度平流项也有所不同     

2004年南海夏季风的爆发及中南半岛陆面-过程的可能影响Ⅱ： 数值试验

在对南海夏季风的爆发及中南半岛陆面过程的可能影响进行了诊断分析的基础上,应用MM5/NOAHLSM模式,研究了中南半岛陆气相互作用对2004年南海夏季风爆发过程的可能影响。结果发现:在南海夏季风爆发前,中南半岛南海地区低层气温差确实出现低值,甚至负值;尽管短期内中南半岛土壤湿度和降水的变化没有引起季风爆发日期的改变,但对季风爆发的强度有影响。土壤湿度和降水变化引起的干异常可导致地表感热通量的增大和地表温度的升高,致使中南半岛与南海之间低层的温差异常(负温差)减小,季风爆发强度减弱;不同的是,湿异常可引起季风爆发强度增强。这一结果说明,在南海夏季风爆发前期,中南半岛上空对流活动和降水异常及其引起的土壤湿度的异常变化在一定程度上会影响到季风爆发的过程。文章还比较了不同温湿地表条件下低层大气状态的差异和地表能量、水分平衡过程的不同,分析了陆气相互作用对季风活动产生影响的物理机制。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS OF THE IMPACTS OF LOCAL LAND-SEA THERMODYNAMIC CONTRASTS ON THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

1INTRODUCTIONAmongdrivingfactorsfortheEastAsianmonsoonareplanetary-scaleland-seathermodynamiccontrast(e.g.betweentheEurasiancontinentandthePacificOcean)andsub-planetary-scaleone(e.g.betweentheIndochinaandtheSouthChinaSea).ItisovertheSouthChinaSea(SCS)andadjoiningareasthattheEastAsiansummermonsoonfirstbreaksout.ItthenadvancestotheregionsofEastAsiaandSouthAsia.ItisthereforenaturaltofindlocalgeographicandtopographiceffectsoftheSCSregionevidentlyshownontheonsetoftheSCSsummermonsoon…     

亚洲热带夏季风的首发地区和机理研究

文中分析了多年逐候平均 85 0hPa风场和黑体辐射温度等物理量的时空演变 ,结果表明 ,90°E以东的孟加拉湾、中南半岛和南海是亚洲热带夏季风首先爆发的地区 ,爆发时间在 2 7～ 2 8候 ,具有突发性和同时性。 90°E以西的印度半岛和阿拉伯海是热带夏季风爆发较晚的地区 ,季风首先在该区 10°N以南爆发 ,时间约在 30～ 31候 ,然后向北推进 ,6月末在全区建立 ,爆发过程具有渐进性。机制分析表明 ,由于 110～ 12 0°E的中高纬东亚大陆在春季和初夏地面感热通量、温度和气压的迅速变化 ,使热带低压带首先在该处冲破高压带 ,生成大陆低压 ,并引导西南气流在 90°E以东地区首先建立。在 90°E以西的印度半岛地区 ,地面感热通量在 4～ 5月间几乎没有明显变化 ,因而印度季风比南海季风晚爆发约 1个月。由此得出 ,90°E是东亚夏季风和南亚夏季风的分界线。此外 ,还着重探讨了南亚高压的季节变化与亚洲热带夏季风爆发的时间联系。发现南亚高压中心位置与亚洲热带夏季风爆发时间有较好的对应关系。南亚高压中心跳过 2 0°N时 ,南海夏季风爆发 ,跳过 2 5°N时 ,印度夏季风在其南部爆发。将用上述方法确定的爆发时间与用其他方法确定的爆发时间相比较 ,发现它们在南海地区有较好的一致性 ,在印度地区略有差异。     

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961--2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.     

不同资料揭示南海夏季风爆发特征的比较

利用全球月平均海温资料，近地面的风、气温、湿度资料，以及海表感热和潜热资料，在综合分析海温和气象要素变化的基础上，确定了7个全球海气相互作用的关键区，并运用相关分析法，着重分析了各关键海区上空气象要素场与海温的时滞相关，以揭示不同关键海区海气相互作用的异同。分析表明：不同海区海气热力相互作用较强，海温与气温比湿有较好的互代性，特别是中东太平洋和南印度洋海区。动力作用对海温的影响各海区差异较大，中西太平洋海区的动力影响可能更关键。在感热潜热与海温的相关中，东西太平洋海区和西北太平洋及南印度洋两季风区都较关键。通过分析各海区海温和各气象要素相邻月的持续相关概率，进一步了解哪些要素、哪些区在哪些时段其异常持续性好，或异常持续性容易发生破坏，这不仅对做预报有一定的参考价值，也为我们讨论海气相互作用的物理机制提供了依据。     

关于南海夏季风建立的大尺度特征及其机制的讨论

使用1998年南海季风试验期间高质量资料和NCEP/NCAR40年再分析资料分析了南海季风建立前后的大尺度环流特征和要素的突变及爆发过程。发现南亚高压迅速地从菲律宾以东移到中南半岛北部,印缅槽加强,赤道印度洋西风加强并向东向北迅速扩展和传播,以及相伴随的中低纬相互作用和西太平洋副高连续东撤是南海夏季风建立的大尺度特征,与此同时,亚洲低纬地区的南北温差和纬向风切变也发生相应的突变。数值实验结果指出,印度半岛地形的陆面加热作用在其东侧激发的气旋性环流对于印缅槽的加强有重要作用,并进而有利于南海夏季风先于印度夏季风爆发。     

南海夏季风建立的模式诊断研究

应用全球谱模式 (T42L9)对 1 986年和 1 987年个例进行了一系列有、无凝结潜热加热和地表感热以及地形作用的单因子敏感性数值预报试验 ,对预报模式输出的大气凝结潜热量和地面感热通量的时空变化特征进行了诊断分析。个例敏感性试验结果表明 ,大气凝结潜热对南海地区西南风的建立极为重要。诊断分析结果指出 ,在南海夏季风建立前 ,中南半岛地区是强大的凝结潜热加热区 ,远比印度半岛地区强。地形和中南半岛凝结潜热的共同作用可能是导致南海夏季风早于印度夏季风建立的重要原因。 1 987年 5月份在中南半岛地区的凝结潜热量比 1 986年明显偏低 ,直到 5月底 6月初才明显上升 ,这可能是该年南海夏季风建立晚的一个原因 ,中南半岛地区凝结潜热的变化可能是影响季风建立早晚的重要因子之一。     

EFFECT OF THE INDIAN PENINSULA ON THE COURSE OF THE ASIAN TROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON

In terms of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3),the effect of the Indian Peninsulaon the course of the Asian tropical summer monsoon is simulated in this paper,and numericalexperimental results show that the Indian Peninsula plays a critical role in the establishmentprocess of the Asian tropical summer monsoon.When the CCM3 includes the Indian Peninsula,the model successfully simulates out the course of the Asian tropical summer monsoon,i.e.theSouth China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon at first bursts in middle May,while the Indian monsoonjust establishes until middle June.However when the Indian Peninsula topography is deleted in themodel,the Indian and SCS summer monsoons almost simultaneously establish in late May.Numerical results further indicate that in the former experiment the sensible heating of the IndianPeninsula warms the air above and produces evident temperature contrast between the peninsulaand its adjacent SCS and Bay of Bengal (BOB).which results in the strengthening and maintenanceof the BOB trough in the low-middle layer of the troposphere in the end of spring and early summerand thus the earliest establishment of the Asian tropical summer monsoon in the SCS in middleMay.However,the Indian summer monsoon just establishes until middle June when the strongwest wind over the Arabian Sea shifts northwards and cancels out the influence of the northwestflow behind the BOB trough.In the latter experiment the effect of Tibetan Plateau only produces avery weak BOB trough,and thus the SCS and Indian summer monsoons almost simultaneouslyestablish.     

1998年南海及其附近地区夏季风的爆发特征及其机制分析

利用NCEP/NCAR 1998年再分析资料和SS T资料, 研究了1998年南海季风爆发的特征及其机制。结果显示, 南海及其附近地区夏季风爆发分为3个阶段, 并具有不同的特征, 在南海季风爆发前, 南海海温已提前突然增温达极高值, 感热通量梯度在海陆之间的转换可能是引起东亚副热带季风和南海季风爆发的重要因子。     

局地海陆热力对比对南海夏季风爆发影响的数值试验

使用P-σ区域气候模式，通过两组海温异常下的数值试验和2个理想试验来初步探讨南海与中南半岛局地海陆热力对比对南海夏季风爆发的影响。结果表明：冬春季南海海温增暖使南海高低空均呈现出有利于季风环流形成的形势，促进南海夏季风的爆发；冬春季南海海温变冷的作用则基本相反。南海地区局地海陆热力对比是南海夏季风爆发的可能原因之一，这种局地的海陆热力差异叠加在大尺度的海陆热力差异作用之上，对南海季风在南海地区突发性爆发特征的形成起了一定的促进作用。     

南海夏季风爆发前后海-气界面热交换特征

文中利用 2 0 0 0与 2 0 0 2年二次南海海 气通量观测资料和同期西沙站资料 ,研究了南海夏季风爆发前后海洋表面热收支变化特征。研究表明 :南海夏季风爆发前后 ,影响海面热收支变化的主要分量是净短波辐射通量和潜热通量 ,在季风爆发前后不同阶段 ,二个分量的变化有不同表现形式 ,但不论二者如何变化 ,季风爆发与活跃期 ,海面热收入减小或为净支出 ;季风爆发前及中断期间 ,海面热收入逐渐增加 ;由于大的热惯性 ,海温变化落后于海面热收支的变化 ,海温的这种滞后效应通过影响潜热通量调节海面热收支的变化 ,又反过来影响自身的变化 ,形成短期振荡过程 ,这种振荡过程与季风的活跃、中断过程相对应。     

亚洲夏季风爆发的基本气候特征分析

利用统一的亚洲热带夏季风爆发指标,重新制作了季风爆发日期的推进图,确证了亚洲热带夏季风最早在热带东印度洋与中印半岛中南部爆发的观点,这发生在26候(5月10日前后),28候(5月20日前后)在南海地区相继爆发,这两个地区的爆发是属同一季风系的不同爆发阶段。以后通过对海陆热力对比、季节内振荡等多方面的分析,对夏季风的爆发机制问题进行了深入的研究,提出了气候学意义下影响亚洲热带夏季风爆发的关键影响因子。在此基础上,给出了夏季风最早在热带东印度洋-中印半岛-南海地区爆发机理的一种概念模式图,即大气环流的季节进程是季风爆发的背景条件;而中印半岛及其邻近地区对流活动和感热与潜热加热的迅速增强与北推、印缅槽的强烈加深,以及高原东部地区的西风暖平流作用是夏季风爆发的主要驱动力,其结果是使经向温度梯度首先在这个地区反向并建立强的上升运动区,使热带季风和降水迅速发展和加强;来自不同源地的低频30—60 d和10—20 d季节内振荡的锁相则是夏季风爆发的一种触发因子,正是这些因子的共同作用导致了亚洲热带夏季风在这个地区的最早爆发。     

2002年南海季风建立及其雨带变化的天气学研究

利用南海海 气通量观测试验资料结合NCEP ,GPCP以及GMS - 5云图资料 ,综合分析了 2 0 0 2年 5～ 6月南海西南季风建立过程及其雨带变化 ,确定 5月 14日西沙及北部海区西南季风爆发 ,5月 15日整个南海季风爆发 ,季风爆发时间属于正常年 ;季风爆发时风向、风速、云量、降水、湿度、辐射及海面温度等要素都发生突变。这种突变是由大气环流的突变造成的。季风爆发前后大气环流变化过程是 :80～ 90°E越赤道气流加强 ,同时印缅低压加深 ,孟加拉湾南北向气压梯度增大 ,而后东亚大陆上气旋发展东移 ,副热带高压东撤 ,孟加拉湾低压槽前的赤道西风突然加强越过中南半岛 ,南海北部首先出现强西南风 ,继而南海季风迅速地全面爆发。孟加拉湾西南风加强到南海季风爆发是一个连续的过程 ,大陆冷空气南下起了重要的作用。南海季风爆发时呈现单雨带型 ,而后由单雨带型转变为双雨带型 ,雨带受副热带高压和季风系统共同影响 ,并且随着副热带高压移动位置变化。