Comparison between measured and modelled cloudless‐sky solar irradiances at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere

Abstract

Cloudless‐sky solar fluxes calculated by the radiative transfer algorithm used in the Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation climate model are compared with measurements of upwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and downwelling radiation at the surface. The 12‐layer model partitions the solar spectrum into two broad wavebands (0.25–0.68 and 0.68–4.00 μm). The comparison utilized TOA fluxes estimated from Nimbus‐ 7 measurements and measured downwelling fluxes at the surface for Kalgoorlie, West Australia, and downwelling fluxes at the surface for Woodbridge, Ontario. Model estimates and measurements agreed to within experimental error for most solar zenith angles. Estimates improved, especially at Woodbridge, when aerosol effects were included. The mean bias error was less than 4% for surface irradiance and less than 6% for upwelling TOA irradiance, which produces a TOA albedo error of about 0.01.     

Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response

There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of aerosols arises from biomass burning, particularly in low latitudes where shifting cultivation and land degradation lead to enhanced aerosol burden. In this study the counteracting effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols on African climate are compared using climate model experiments with fully interactive aerosols from different sources. The consideration of aerosol emissions induces a remarkable decrease in short-wave solar irradiation near the surface, especially in winter and autumn in tropical West Africa and the Congo Basin where biomass burning is mainly prevailing. This directly leads to a modification of the surface energy budget with reduced sensible heat fluxes. As a consequence, temperature decreases, compensating the strong warming signal due to enhanced trace gas concentrations. While precipitation in tropical Africa is less sensitive to the greenhouse warming, it tends to decrease, if the effect of aerosols from biomass burning is taken into account. This is partly due to the local impact of enhanced aerosol burden and partly to modifications of the large-scale monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere, usually lagging behind the season with maximum aerosol emissions. In the model equilibrium experiments, the greenhouse gas impact on temperature stands out from internal variability at various time scales from daily to decadaland the same holds for precipitation under the additional aerosol forcing. Greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit an opposite effect on daily temperature extremes, resulting in an compensation of the individual responses under the combined forcing. In terms of precipitation, daily extreme events tend to be reduced under aerosol forcing, particularly over the tropical Atlantic and the Congo basin. These results suggest that the simulation of the multiple aerosol effects from anthropogenic sources represents an important factor in tropical climate change, hence, requiring more attention in climate modelling attempts.     

RegCM3引入气溶胶间接气候效应模拟效果对比

利用2006年区域气候模式RegCM3和Streets气溶胶排放源清单,在原模式中引入间接气候效应模块,改进云降水方案,对硫酸盐气溶胶的时空分布、辐射强迫效应进行了模拟研究。结果表明：硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫有明显季节变化;直接效应使地表温度降低,冬春季大值区出现在四川盆地,夏季大值区出现在华北平原。对降水的影响,主要表现在西南—东北水汽输送带上降水减少;其间接气候效应主要表现在使南方地区温度上升、北方地区温度下降;珠江流域和黄河流域降水减少,长江流域和东北地区降水增加。总的来说,直接效应大于间接效应。     

On the consideration of mesoscale transports in climate modelling

Summary The dynamical effect of land surface heterogeneity on heat fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated using numerical simulations with a non-hydrostatic model over a wide range of grid resolutions. It is commonly assumed that mesoscale or dynamical fluxes associated with mesoscale and convective circulations simulated by a high-resolution model (subgrid (SG) model) on the subgrid scale of a climate model (large-scale (LS) model) represent additional processes in the ABL, which are not considered by the turbulence scheme of the LS-model, and which can be parameterized using the SG-model. The present study investigates the usefulness of this methodology for small-scale and large-scale idealized heterogeneities using a SG-model resolving mesoscale or even microscale circulations to compute the mesoscale fluxes on the scale of the LS-model. It is shown that the dynamical transports as derived from the SG-model should not be used to correct the parameterized turbulent fluxes of the LS-model. The reason is that the subgrid circulations simulated by the SG-model interact with the fields of wind and scalars in the ABL, which results in reduced turbulent fluxes in the ABL. Thus the methodology of previous studies to use mesoscale/dynamical fluxes for the correction of flux profiles simulated by climate models seems to be questionable.     

关于海面湍流通量参数化的两种方案试验

本文对海气间湍流通量计算的参数化进行了两个方案的试验。第一个是对气候模式ＣＣＭ３中的计算方案作了改进,用半解析的计算方法代替纯迭代的方法,减少了计算量而达到相同精度。第二个是用Ｂｒｕｔｓａｅｒｔ提出的廓线函数计算海面通量,达到了当前最精确模式相同的精度。这二种方案均可用于大气模式或用于由实测气象资料求通量。     

应用风云气象卫星及融合降水资料改进地表参数模拟

气象卫星资料不仅对天气、气候研究非常重要, 对于地表参数模拟和预报也具有重要意义。本文首次将全国自动站观测、卫星降水估计和地面观测融合降水资料(CMORPH)以及风云二号D星(FY-2D)积雪覆盖率数据应用到了高分辨率陆面资料同化系统(u-HRLDAS)。融合降水资料用于驱动u-HRLDAS, 同时用于计算雪水当量;积雪覆盖率资料作为u-HRLDAS强迫变量。区域模拟结果表明, 积雪覆盖率对于地表反照率、地表温度以及地气交换通量模拟有极其重要的影响。密云站土壤湿度模拟结果表明, 融合降水资料准确度优于全球陆面资料同化系统(GLDAS)再分析资料。小汤山站单点验证结果表明, 应用融合降水资料及卫星积雪覆盖率资料可以改进地表温度及地气交换通量的模拟。     

计算非均一大气条件下太阳辐射通量的一个简单而又精确的模式

发展了一个计算非均一大气条件下太阳辐射通量的一个简单而又精确的模式，其中包括关于大气球反射率与透过率的一个参数化表达式，并引入加权一次散射反照率和加权不对称因子，用于拟合非均一大气条件下计算辐射通量的四个经验订正因子。对清洁和浑浊的两类大气，都具有120060组的辐射通量模拟试验，以检验本模式的精度。这些模拟试验覆盖0－50的云光学厚度、0－0．8地表反射率、Junge和对数正态的气溶胶谱分布、－0．05气溶胶折射率虚部。在均一大气条件下，由本模式计算的120060组向上通量的标准差对清洁和浑浊两类大气分别为1．08％和1．04％；而向下通量的标准差分别为4.12%和3．31％。在非均一大气条件下，由本模式计算的向上通量的标准差对清洁和浑浊两类大气分别为3．01％和3．48％；而向下通量的标准差分别为4．54％和4．89％，其精度远优于均一假设下的计算结果。     

A simple yet more accurate model to calculate solar radiative flux in the inhomogeneous atmosphere

A simple yet more accurate semiempirical model is developed to calculate solar radiative flux in the optically inhomogeneous atmosphere. In the model a parameterized expression of spherical reflectance and transmitance of the atmosphere is confirmed, and the weighted single scatter albedo and weighted asymmetric factor are introduced to fit four empirical correction factors responsible for radiative fluxes in the inhomogeneous atmosphere. For both clean and turbid models, there are 120060 sets of radiative flux simulations for accuracy checks of the model, which cover 0-50 cloud optical depths, 0-0.8 surface reflectance, Junge and Log-normal aerosol size distributions, and 0-0.05 imaginary parts of aerosol refractive indexes. In case of the homogeneous atmosphere, standard errors of the 120060 upward fluxes from the present model are 1.08% and 1.04% for clean and turbid aerosol models, respectively; and those of the downward fluxes are 4.12% and 3.31%. In case of the inhomogeneous atmosphere, standard errors of the upw ard fluxes from the present model are 3.01% and 3.48% for clean and turbid aerosol models.respectively; and those of the downward fluxes are 4.54% and 4.89%, showing a much better accuracy than the results calculated by using an assumption of the homogeneous atmosphere.     

Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon

A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1?C0.5°C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between ?25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1?C2 pentads, and delaying by 1?C2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes.     

Method for calculating the whole-area distribution of sensibleand latent heat fluxes based on climatological observations

Summary  A major problem of climatology are the relationships among climate variables and between climate variables and climate factors on a climatological time scale. By averaging an equation system for heat fluxes on the earth surface and taking into consideration the water balance equation, an equation system is derived, by means of which the annual means of the turbulent heat fluxes can be calculated. The input variables used are the annual means of the climate variables and the parameters of climate factors taking into account the surface properties. The results obtained for the annual means of the heat fluxes are compared with the measurements using the REKLIP network. Finally, the method for determining the whole-area distribution of turbulent heat fluxes is applied to the REKLIP area. Received August 13, 1999 Revised February 15, 2000     

The impact of sub-grid scale sea-ice inhomogeneities on the performance of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3

Leads and polynyas have a great impact on the energy budget of the polar ocean and atmosphere. Since atmospheric general circulation models are not able to resolve the spatial scales of these inhomogeneities, it is necessary to include the effect of fractional sub-grid scale sea-ice inhomogeneities on climate by a suitable parametrization. In order to do this we have divided each model grid-cell into an ice-covered and an ice-free part. Nevertheless, a numerical model requires effective transports representative for the whole grid-box. A simple procedure would be to use grid averages of the surface parameters for the calculation of the surface fluxes. However, as the surface fluxes are non-linearly dependent on the surface properties, the fluxes over ice and open water should be calculated separately according to the individual surface-layer structure of each surface type. Then these local fluxes should be averaged to obtain representative fluxes. Sensitivity experiments with the Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 clearly show that a subgrid scale distribution of sea ice is a dominant factor controlling the exchange processes between ocean and atmosphere in the Arctic. The heat and water vapour transports are strongly enhanced leading to a significant warming and moistening of the polar troposphere. This affects the atmospheric circulation in high- and mid-latitudes; e.g. the stationary lows are modified and the transient cyclonic activity over the subpolar oceans is reduced. A pronounced impact of sub-grid scale sea-ice distribution on the model climate can only be obtained when the non-linear behaviour of the surface exchange processes is considered by a proper, physically based, averaging of the surface fluxes. A simple linear averaging of surface parameters is not sufficient. Received: 13 September 1994 / Accepted: 25 July 1995     

Effects of crop growth and development on regional climate: a case study over East Asian monsoon area

In this study, the CERES phenological growth and development functions were implemented into the regional climate model, RegCM3 to give a model denoted as RegCM3_CERES. This model was used to represent interactions between regional climate and crop growth processes. The effects of crop growth and development processes on regional climate were then studied based on two 20-year simulations over the East Asian monsoon area conducted using the original regional climate model RegCM3, and the coupled RegCM3_CERES model. The numerical experiments revealed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes into the regional climate model reduced the root mean squared error of the simulated precipitation by 2.2–10.7% over north China, and the simulated temperature by 5.5–30.9% over the monsoon region in eastern China. Comparison of the simulated results obtained using RegCM3_CERES and RegCM3 showed that the most significant changes associated with crop modeling were the changes in leaf area index which in turn modify the aspects of surface energy and water partitions and lead to moderate changes in surface temperature and, to some extent, rainfall. Further analysis revealed that a robust representation of seasonal changes in plant growth and developmental processes in the regional climate model changed the surface heat and moisture fluxes by modifying the vegetation characteristics, and that these differences in simulated surface fluxes resulted in different structures of the boundary layer and ultimately affected the convection. The variations in leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover changed the distribution of evapotranspiration and heat fluxes, which could potentially lead to anomalies in geopotential height, and consequently influenced the overlying atmospheric circulation. These changes would result in redistribution of the water and energy through advection. Nevertheless, there are significant uncertainties in modeling how monsoon dynamics responds to crop modeling and more research is needed.     

Sensitivity experiments performed with an energy balance atmosphere model coupled to an advection-diffusion ocean model

Summary In this paper a simple climate model is presented which is used to perform some sensitivity experiments. The atmospheric part is represented by a vertically and zonally averaged layer in which the surface air temperature, radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, the turbulent fluxes between atmosphere and surface and the snow cover are calculated. This atmospheric layer is coupled to a two-dimensional advection-diffusion ocean model in which the zonal overturning pattern is prescribed. The ocean model evaluates the temperature distribution, the amount of sea-ice and the meridional and vertical heat fluxes. The present-day climate simulated by the model compares reasonably well with observations of the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of temperature, radiation, surface alebdo, sea-ice and snow cover and meridional energy fluxes. Then, the sensitivity of the model-simulated present-day climate to perturbations in the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is investigated. The temperature response displays large latitudinal and seasonal variations, which is in qualitative agreement with results obtained with other climate models. It is found that the seasonal variation of sea-ice cover (and hence, the effective oceanic heat capacity) is one of the most important elements determining seasonal variations in climate sensitivity. Differences in sensitivity between the seasonal and annual mean version of the model are discussed. Finally, the equilibrium response to perturbations in some selected model variables is presented; these variables include meridional diffusion coefficients, drag coefficient, sea-ice thickness, atmospheric CO₂-concentration and cloud optical thickness.With 13 Figures     

CAM5模式中两气溶胶模块的评估

公共大气模式 (CAM) 被广泛用于气候变化研究中,其5.0版中包含两个气溶胶模块MAM3和MOZART。利用AeroCom (2000年) 多模式中值、IMPROVE (1988—2005年) 和EMEP (2002—2008年) 站点资料对两模块进行了评估。结果表明:MAM3和MOZART模块都能很好地模拟硫酸盐气溶胶的季节变化, 与观测资料相比,模拟结果均在夏季偏高, 相关系数均在0.89左右,2倍误差内。两模块能较好地模拟黑碳气溶胶的时空分布特征, 与观测资料相比,模拟结果偏低,相关系数均在0.62左右, 排放源偏小而清除率偏大是造成黑碳气溶胶偏低的主要原因。两模块对有机碳气溶胶的模拟结果差别较大,大部分站点在3倍误差内,MAM3的结果偏高92.1%,MOZART则偏低58.1%;两模块一次有机碳的结果接近,差异主要源自对二次有机碳的模拟。两模块模拟的海盐气溶胶偏大,这主要是清除率偏小造成的。两模块采用相同的起沙机制,但起沙系数有差异, MAM3的沙尘源强偏大近两倍,模拟总量较大;MOZART的沙尘源强则偏低40%左右,模拟沙尘总量较低。即模式中气溶胶的输送和扩散过程偏弱,说明清除机制还有待改进。     

Direct Radiative Forcing and Climatic Effects of Aerosols over East Asia by RegCM3

The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a chemistry/aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regionalscale climate.The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) were discussed.The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA) over most areas of East Asia.The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations,with the strongest forcing occurring in summer.The aerosol feedbacks on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear.Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas,which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to-2°C with the maximum up to-3-C in summer over the deserts of West China.The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation.Except in summer,the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d-1 over most areas of China.     

气候模式分辨率对气溶胶气候效应模拟结果的影响

气候模式分辨率作为影响模式模拟结果的重要因素,其对气溶胶与云相互作用的影响尚未全面认识。利用公共大气模型CAM5.3在3种分辨率（2°、1°、0.5°）下,分别采用2000年和1850年气溶胶排放情景进行试验,检验提高分辨率是否能改进气候模式的模拟能力,分析不同分辨率下气溶胶气候效应的异同,探索模式分辨率对气溶胶气候效应数值模拟结果的影响。通过观测资料与模式结果对比发现,提高分辨率可以明显改进模式对总云量、云短波辐射强迫的模拟能力,0.5°分辨率下模拟结果与观测更接近,其他变量并无明显改善。在不同分辨率下,全球平均的气溶胶气候效应较为一致,总云量、云水路径均增加,云短波和长波辐射强迫均加强,而云顶的云滴有效半径和降水均减小,地面气温降低。不同分辨率下,气溶胶增加引起的气溶胶光学厚度、云水路径、地面温度、云短波和长波辐射强迫变化的纬向平均分布相似但大小存在差异;而降水和云量变化的纬向分布与大小均存在较大差异,在区域尺度上还存在较大的不确定性。全球平均而言, 0.5°分辨率下气溶胶的间接辐射强迫相比1°分辨率下的结果降低了2.5%,相比2°分辨率下的结果降低了6.4%。提高模式分辨率可以部分改进模式模拟能力,同时,气溶胶的间接效应随着模式分辨率的提高而减弱。但气溶胶引起的云量、降水的变化在不同分辨率下差异较大,存在较大的不确定性。      

Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Continental Cloud Ensembles

Aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in the current climate assessment. Much of the complexity arises from the non-monotonic responses of clouds, precipitation and radiative fluxes to aerosol perturbations under various meteorological conditions. In this study, an aerosol-aware WRF model is used to investigate the microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols in three weather systems during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Observational Period campaign at the US Southern Great Plains. Three simulated cloud ensembles include a low-pressure deep convective cloud system, a collection of less-precipitating stratus and shallow cumulus, and a cold frontal passage. The WRF simulations are evaluated by several ground-based measurements. The microphysical properties of cloud hydrometeors, such as their mass and number concentrations, generally show monotonic trends as a function of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations.Aerosol radiative effects do not influence the trends of cloud microphysics, except for the stratus and shallow cumulus cases where aerosol semi-direct effects are identified. The precipitation changes by aerosols vary with the cloud types and their evolving stages, with a prominent aerosol invigoration effect and associated enhanced precipitation from the convective sources. The simulated aerosol direct effect suppresses precipitation in all three cases but does not overturn the aerosol indirect effect. Cloud fraction exhibits much smaller sensitivity(typically less than 2%) to aerosol perturbations, and the responses vary with aerosol concentrations and cloud regimes. The surface shortwave radiation shows a monotonic decrease by increasing aerosols, while the magnitude of the decrease depends on the cloud type.     

Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate

We examine the simulated future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by anthropogenic greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol. Two simulations performed with the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are investigated: a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol. Only the direct aerosol effect on the clear-sky radiative fluxes is considered. The sulfate aerosol has a significant impact on temperature, radiative quantities, precipitation and atmospheric dynamics. Generally, we find a similar, but weaker future climate response if sulfate aerosol is considered additionally. Due to the induced negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, the future warming is attenuated. We find no significant future trends in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in both simulations. However, the aerosol seems to have a balancing effect on the occurence of extreme NAO events. The simulated correlation patterns of the NAO index with temperature and precipitation, respectively, agree well with observations up to the present. The extent of the regions influenced by the NAO tends to be reduced under strong greenhouse gas forcing. If sulfate is included and the warming is smaller, this tendency is reversed. Also, the future decrease in baroclinicity is smaller due to the aerosols’ cooling effect and the poleward shift in track density is partly offset. Our findings imply that in simulations where aerosol cooling is neglected, the magnitude of the future warming over the North Atlantic region is overestimated, and correlation patterns differ from those based on the future simulation including aerosols.     

Soil moisture: a residual problem underlying AGCMs

This paper critically reviews and intercompares land surface schemes (LSSs) as used in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate soil moisture and its response to a warmer climate, and potential evapotranspiration approaches as used in operational soil moisture monitoring and in predicting the response of soil moisture to a warmer climate. AGCM predictions of overall soil moisture change are in broad agreement but disagree sharply in some regions. Intercomparison projects have sought to evaluate the LSSs used by AGCMs for both accuracy and consistency. These studies have found that different LSSs can produce very different simulations even when supplied with identical atmospheric forcing. As well, LSSs that produce similar surface results from present-day or control climates often diverge when forced with climatic change data. Furthermore, no single LSS has been identified that produces an adequate simulation of all of temperature, moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. AGCM LSSs must resolve the surface energy balance (SEB) in order to compute realistic heat fluxes between with the atmospheric model. LSSs have been used with AGCMs in both on-line (fully coupled) and off-line modes. In off-line climatic change experiments, AGCM predictions of atmospheric temperature and precipitation have been used, along with model downward radiative fluxes at the surface, to drive their own uncoupled LSS. However, there are simple non-energy-balance methods for estimating evapotranspiration that have been traditionally used in agricultural and meteorological applications. These schemes compute a potential evapotranspiration (PE) based on temperature and/or net radiation inputs, with the PE modified based on the availability of soil moisture. Operational PE approaches have also been used with AGCM data in off-line climate change experiments. The advantages of this approach are that it is simpler and requires less information, although (like the off-line SEB approach) it leaves out the simulation of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere.Although the SEB approach is essential for LSSs that must be coupled to AGCMs, this does not necessarily make it superior to an off-line operational PE LSS when it comes to quantities such as soil moisture. The quality of current observational data is insufficient to demonstrate that either approach is better than the other. Both approaches should continue to be used and intercompared when predicting the impacts of climatic change on soil moisture.     

The variance of sea surface temperature and projected changes with global warming

Based on the surface energy budget, the sea surface temperature (SST) variance is related to the product of three factors: the sum of the variances of surface radiative and turbulent energy fluxes and of ocean heat transport, an efficiency factor depending on the covariances among them, and a transfer factor involving the persistence of surface temperature via its lagged autocorrelation. These quantities are analyzed for current climate conditions based on results from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and a simulation with the CCCma coupled climate model. Potential changes with climate change are considered based on two quasi-equilibrium climate change integrations for which the forcing has been stabilized at years 2050 and 2100 values of the IS92a forcing scenario. The surface energy fluxes, which contribute to the variance of SST, are similar in the modelled and reanalyzed atmosphere but modelled temperature variance is conditioned on the thickness of the upper ocean model layer. Changes of SST variance with global warming show broad scale patterns with decreases in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and the northern extra-tropical Pacific, and increases in both the sub-tropical Pacific and mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The changes in SST variance are not associated only with changes in the variances of surface energy fluxes/transports but also with changes in the covariances among them and by changes in the temperature autocorrelation structure.