A paleoclimate record of the last 17,600 years in stalagmites from the B7 cave,Sauerland, Germany

Petrographical and geochemical parameters of stalagmites from the B7 cave in Iserlohn–Letmathe (Northern Rhenish Massif, NW Germany) record Late- and postglacial climate changes (temperature and/or precipitation). Fabrics and microfacies of the stalagmite profiles lead to a differentiation of four hierarchies of rhythms. Clastic layers in the stalagmites are caused by flooding events and are time markers. Twenty-four TIMS Th/U-age-dates provide a time calibration of stalagmite growth phases. One stalagmite reveals an early growth period between 17.6 and 16.7 ka BP. Between 9.6 and 5.5 ka BP (Atlantic episode of the Holocene) the growth rate of the stalagmites was higher than before and after this time, with dominant light-porous microfacial laminae and high δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values representing partly kinetic fractionation effects. This part of the Holocene is interpreted as a mainly warm episode with frequent interruptions of dripping. Within the past 4 ka the profiles with predominant dark compact facies reveal low isotopic values which may be interpreted as a temperature proxy record. The stalagmite records resemble records from an Irish stalagmite. Correlation with the Δ¹⁴C record from European tree rings suggests that colder periods in the North Atlantic were accompanied by drier winters in central Europe.     

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation reflected in Scandinavian glacier mass balance records?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the modes of climate variability in the North Atlantic region. The atmospheric circulation during the winter season in this region commonly displays a strong meridional (north–south) pressure contrast, with low air pressure (cyclone) centred close to Iceland and high air pressure (anticyclone) near the Azores. This pressure gradient drives the mean surface winds and the mid‐latitude winter storms from west to east across the North Atlantic, bringing mild moist air to northwest Europe. The NAO index is based on the difference of normalised sea‐level pressures (SLP) between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Stykkisholmur, Iceland. The SLP anomalies at these stations are normalised by division of each monthly pressure by the long‐term (1865–1984) standard deviation. Interannual atmospheric climate variability in northwest Europe, especially over Great Britain and western Scandinavia has, during the last decades, been attributed mainly to the NAO, causing variations in the winter weather over the northeast North Atlantic and the adjacent land areas. A comparison between the NAO index and the winter (December–March) precipitation between ad 1864 and 1995 in western Norway shows that these are strongly linked (correlation coefficient 0.77). Variations in the NAO index are also reflected in the mass balance records of glaciers in western Scandinavia. The NAO index is best correlated with mass balance data from maritime glaciers in southern Norway (e.g. Ålfotbreen R² = 0.51). The record of Holocene (last ca. 11 500 cal. yr) glacier variations of maritime glaciers in western Scandinavia is thus a proxy of pre‐instrumental NAO variations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of detrital carbonate on stable oxygen and carbon isotope data from varved sediments of the interglacial Piànico palaeolake (Southern Alps,Italy)

Contamination with detrital matter is a well‐known bias in δ¹⁸O records from lake carbonates but quantitative information of this effect is yet lacking. Therefore, we developed a new methodological approach combining isotope analyses with microfacies, X‐ray diffraction and micro‐X‐ray fluorescence data and applied this in a case study for the Piànico interglacial lake record in order to provide a quantitative estimate of the effect of detrital carbonate on stable δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C data. The Piànico record contains a long series of distinct and well‐preserved calcite varves and is correlated to Marine Isotope Stage 11. Intercalated in the varve sequence are detrital layers triggered by surface erosion events. These detrital layers are mainly composed of dolomite, thus reflecting the mineralogical signature of the catchment. Microfacies analyses of a 9350 varve year interval allows the identification of detrital layers down to sub‐millimetre scale and a precise selection of three different types of samples for isotope analyses: (1) pure endogenic calcite varves (five varves per sample) without detrital contamination; (2) individual detrital layers; and (3) ‘mixed’ samples including five calcite varves and up to four thin detrital layers. Detrital samples show the isotopic signature of the catchment dolomite and are up to 5.7‰ enriched in δ¹⁸O values with respect to endogenic calcite samples. In mixed samples, the degree of isotopic enrichment is directly related to the amount of detrital contamination; δ¹⁸O of bulk carbonates is significantly biased when the detrital component amounts to more than 5% of the sample. It is also shown that samples containing detrital material have an influence on the calculation of the covariance between δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O. Covariance is high (r = 0.76) when the correlation coefficient is calculated on the base of all samples, but absent (r = ?0.43) when samples containing detrital dolomite are excluded. It has been demonstrated that microfacies analysis is a quick tool to avoid or reduce detrital contamination in bulk carbonate samples during sample selection. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate

According to tree ring and other records, a series of severe droughts that lasted for decades afflicted western North America during the Medieval period resulting in a more arid climate than in subsequent centuries. A review of proxy evidence from around the world indicates that North American megadroughts were part of a global pattern of Medieval hydroclimate that was distinct from that of today. In particular, the Medieval hydroclimate was wet in northern South America, dry in mid-latitude South America, dry in eastern Africa but with strong Nile River floods and a strong Indian monsoon. This pattern is similar to that accompanying persistent North American droughts in the instrumental era. This pattern is compared to that associated with familiar climate phenomena. The best fit comes from a persistently La Niña-like tropical Pacific and the warm phase of the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also helps to explain the Medieval hydroclimate pattern. Limited sea surface temperature reconstructions support the contention that the tropical Pacific was cold and the subtropical North Atlantic was warm, ideal conditions for North American drought. Tentative modeling results indicate that a multi-century La Niña-like state could have arisen as a coupled atmosphere–ocean response to high irradiance and weak volcanism during the Medieval period and that this could in turn have induced a persistently positive NAO state. A La Niña-like state could also induce a strengthening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and hence warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, by (i) the ocean response to the positive NAO and by shifting the southern mid-latitude westerlies poleward which (ii) will increase the salt flux from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic and (iii) drive stronger Southern Ocean upwelling.     

Glacially derived material in an Inner Mongolian desert lake during Marine Isotope Stage 2

Establishing the precise timing of continental glacial dynamics and abrupt high‐latitude climate events is crucial to understanding the causes of global climate change. Here we present multi‐proxy records in a lake sediment core from arid Inner Mongolia (Wuliangsuhai Lake) that show two distinct glacially derived sedimentation events at ～26.2–21.8 and ～17.3–11.5k cal a BP. Fine sediments from the Last Glacial Maximum separate these glacially derived coarse sediments. Within these intervals, the occurrence of granite clasts at ～24–23.5, 17.3–17 and 15.6–14.1k cal a BP implies either sediment discharge by meltwater as well as strong current flow in the Yellow River and/or sediment influx through hill‐slope mass wasting and landsliding from the nearby Yin Mountains. Surface microfeatures of quartz grains and spot elemental analysis of black specks in these intervals, however, indicate that physical weathering is dominant and that the provenance of the rocks is probably from a glacial source. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time glacier‐derived materials have been detected in any desert lake in the Yellow River basin. The occurrence of granite clasts roughly correlates with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic, suggesting synchronous ice sheet dynamics in high‐ and mid‐latitude regions during the Last Glacial period. Although our data provide unprecedented evidence for the influence of glacier‐related processes in arid Inner Mongolia, further well‐dated records are clearly needed to re‐evaluate the correlative inference drawn between granite clast layers in Wuliangsuhai Lake and Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Link of ocean deep water thermohaline anomalies with atmospheric state anomalies in the Northern Atlantic

Anomalies of thermohaline characteristics of the ocean deep waters formed in the subpolar North Atlantic are shown to be controlled by the natural oscillations of the atmospheric state in the region, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A general mechanism behind the NAO effect on the deep water temperature and salinity on a decadal time scale is proposed. The main factors determining the close link of the deep water thermohaline anomalies and the NAO are the zonal extension of the subpolar gyre and the wintertime deep convection intensity in the Labrador Sea.     

New insights into Holocene atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Scandinavia inferred from oxygen‐isotope records of lake‐sediment cellulose

St. Amour, N. A., Hammarlund, D., Edwards, T. W. D. & Wolfe, B. B. 2010: New insights into Holocene atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Scandinavia inferred from oxygen‐isotope records of lake‐sediment cellulose. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 770–782. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00169.x. ISSN 0300‐9843 Cellulose‐inferred lakewater oxygen‐isotope records have been obtained from two hydrologically open basins (Lake Spåime and Lake Svartkälstjärn), located on a west–east transect across central Sweden, to investigate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns during the Holocene. The Lake Spåime δ¹⁸O record is sensitive to changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the Scandes Mountains of west‐central Sweden, and thus generally portrays variations in δ¹⁸O of precipitation (δ¹⁸O_P) that are governed predominantly by the influence of air masses originating from the North Atlantic. In contrast, the Lake Svartkälstjärn δ¹⁸O record appears to reflect the varying influence of air masses delivering moisture from the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea. A comparison of inferred changes in δ¹⁸O_P over the Holocene between the two sites reveals systematic patterns of variability over widely different time scales. These include: (1) a previously recognized long‐term regional decline in δ¹⁸O_P, possibly in response to the declining vigour of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation related to decreasing summer solar insolation; (2) newly identified inverse centennial‐ to millennial‐scale δ¹⁸O_P fluctuations at the two sites that may be linked to changes in modes of atmospheric circulation analogous to those described at interannual to multidecadal time scales by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; and (3) a prolonged interval of apparent climatic stability in the mid‐Holocene (c. 6300–4200 cal. yr BP) characterized by persistently negative NAO‐like circulation.     

Early Holocene terrestrial climatic variability along a North Atlantic Island transect: palaeoceanographic implications

A synthesis of the early Holocene climatic development in the North Atlantic region is presented, based on three previously published lake records from southern Greenland (Lake N14), Iceland (Lake Torfadalsvatn) and the Faroe Islands (Lake Lykkjuvøtn). The interval 11 500–8500 cal BP has been divided into five phases with respect to the inferred strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and Irminger Currents (IC). Phase 1 (11 500–10 750 cal BP) was characterised by the first establishment of the NAC and IC in the vicinity of the studied sites, interrupted by the Preboreal Oscillation around 11 200 cal BP. Phase 2 (10 750–10 100 cal BP) was marked by a further warming step in southern Greenland rather concordant with a change into colder and more variable winters on the Faroe Islands. It is proposed that this could partly be related to a series of melt water outbursts disturbing the thermohaline circulation in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in a warming trend in the western region. During Phase 3 (10 100–9400 cal BP) the strength of the IC reaching northwestern Iceland intensified. A more stable regime in surface circulation was established at the onset of Phase 4 (9400–8900 cal BP) in southern Greenland and was followed by a change towards further warm conditions on Iceland at the onset of Phase 5 (8900–8500 cal BP).     

The tephrochronology of Iceland and the North Atlantic region during the Middle and Late Quaternary: a review

The tephrochronology of Iceland and the North Atlantic region is reviewed in order to construct a unified framework for the last 400 kyr BP. Nearly all of the tephra layers described are also characterised geochemically. A number of new tephra layers are analysed for the first time for their geochemical signature and a number of pre‐Holocene tephra layers have been given an informal denotation. The tephrostratigraphy of Ash Zone II is highlighted. Where possible the rhyolitic tephra layers found outside Iceland have been correlated to known Icelandic tephra layers or to the volcanic source area. The application of tephra fallout in various depositional environments is described and discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storminess variation during the last 6500 years as reconstructed from an ombrotrophic peat bog in Halland,southwest Sweden

Cores taken from an ombrotrophic peat bog in the coastal zone of Halland, southwest Sweden, were examined for wind transported mineral grains, pollen and humidity indicators. The core covers the period from 6500 cal. yr BP to present. Ombrotrophic conditions existed from ca. 4200 cal. yr BP onwards. Bog surface wetness fluctuated strongly until ca. 3700 cal. yr BP, with an apparent dominance of dry summer conditions from 4800–4500 cal. yr BP. Local wet shifts occurred around 4300, 2800, 2400 and 1500 cal. yr BP, whereas the most recent 600 years of the record show increasingly dry conditions. Mineral grain content, interpreted as aeolian sand influx (ASI), was used as a proxy for (winter) storm frequency and intensity until ca. 1500 cal. yr BP, after which increasing human impact, as reconstructed by pollen analysis, became a second important potential cause for increased sand drift. Strongly increased storminess occurred at 4800, 4200, 2800–2200, 1500, 1100 and 400–50 cal. yr BP, indicating a dominance of cold and stormy winters during these periods. Many of these storm periods apparently coincide with storm events in other sites in southwestern Scandinavia, suggesting that our ASI record reflects a regional scale climatic signal. Furthermore these stormy periods correlate to well‐known cold phases in the North Atlantic region, suggesting a link to large‐scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tephra stratigraphy on the North Icelandic shelf: extending tephrochronology into marine sediments off North Iceland

Tephra stratigraphical and tephrochronological studies of marine core MD99‐2275 on the North Icelandic shelf have revealed 58 new tephra horizons within the last 7050 cal. a BP, bringing the total number of identified tephra layers to 76. So far, over 100 tephra layers have been identified in the entire core spanning the last 15 000 years. The majority of the newly identified tephra layers are basaltic in composition and originate from the most active volcanic systems in Iceland, namely Grímsvötn, Veidivötn‐Bárdarbunga and Katla. A total of 40 tephra layer land–sea correlations have been made within this time period, of which 16 represent absolutely dated tephra markers. In addition, two tephra marker series are revealed in the marine sediments and in the terrestrial tephra stratigraphy, located between c. 2300–2600 and between 5700–5900 years. For the last 15 000 years, 21 tephra markers have been recognized. The marine tephra layer frequency (TLF) reveals two peaks, within the last 2000 years, and between 5000 and 7000 years ago. It shows the same general characteristics as the terrestrial TLF curve in Iceland, which indicates that marine sediments can yield important information about volcanism in Iceland. This is useful in time segments in which terrestrial records are poor or non‐existent. The study contributes to a high‐resolution tephrochronological framework on the North Icelandic shelf, with core MD99‐2275 representing a potential stratotype section in the area, and for the northern North Atlantic–Nordic Seas region, as well as being an important contribution to the Lateglacial–early Holocene volcanic history of Iceland.     

An Overview of Paleo-AO/NAO Studies

The discovery of decadal variability of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the introduction of Arctic oscillation (AO) concept have initiated a series of paleo-AO/NAO related studies since the mid-to-late 1990s. The progress and new findings of paleo-AO/NAO works after that time were comprehensively reviewed. The new results from the observations and modelings at four key timescales were summarized in detail: ①the reconstructions of the AO/NAO annual index over the past millennium; ②the debate on AO/NAO’s trend since early Holocene; ③the weakening of AO/NAO’s amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum; and ④the anomalous positive phase of AO/NAO during the Last Interglacial. In addition, the possible mechanism for different timescales of AO/NAO is also summarized. Furthermore, the distinction between AO/NAO’ was mean state and amplitude, which were not explicitly separated in previous studies, were comprehensively discussed. Considering the current uncertainties related to paleo-AO/NAO studies, we encourage the community to search for more proxies having longer-than-10,000-year length with annual resolution around AO/NAO highly correlated regions. Another, we encourage long-term transient modeling on AO/NAO can be performed in order to improve our understanding of the dynamics and interaction between AO/NAO’s high-frequency variability and the climatological background, so as to further improve AO/NAO’s predictability on global warming context.     

Connection between South Mediterranean climate and North African atmospheric circulation during the last 50,000 yr BP North Atlantic cold events

High-resolution clay mineralogical analyses were performed on sediment deposited during the last 50,000 yr in the Alboran sea (ODP Site 976). The clay mineral record is compared with pollen assemblages and with annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperatures of the coldest month (MTCO) reconstructed with the modern analog technique (MAT). Enhanced contribution of palygorskite, a typical wind-blown clay mineral, characterizes the North Atlantic cold climatic events. Coeval development of the semi-arid vegetation (Artemisia rich) associated with a drastic fall of reconstructed precipitations and temperatures, suggest cold and arid continental conditions in the West Mediterranean area during North Atlantic cold events. The clay mineral association, especially the palygorskite content and the illite-to-kaolinite ratio, indicate western Morocco as one of the major source of the clay-size fraction during the North Atlantic cold events. The maximum abundance of Artemisia associated with the presence of Argania pollen both indicate Morocco as the main origin for pollen during these cold periods. The comparison of these pollen and clay mineral-specific features allows us to pinpoint western Morocco as the dominant source of wind-blown particles during North Atlantic cold events. These specific mineralogical composition and palynological assemblages reveal enhanced aridity over North Africa and intensification of winds favouring dust erosion and transport from North Africa toward the Alboran Sea during the North Atlantic cold events. According to atmospheric models, such a meridian transport (1) likely results from the development of strong and stable anticyclonic conditions over the tropical Atlantic and North Africa, similar to today's summer meteorological configuration and (2) implies a northward position of the westerly winds during North Atlantic cold events. Finally the synoptic situation over the West Mediterranean during the North Atlantic cold events is compared with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), suggesting that during the cold Atlantic events, weather regimes over Europe and North Africa may have been systematically shifted towards a positive NAO situation.     

Progresses and Prospects for North Tropical Atlantic Mode Interannual Variability

North Tropical Atlantic Mode (NTAM) is the leading variability of the boreal spring sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic at interannual timescale. It is also known as the northern pole of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). NTAM shows significant impact on the shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone, the precipitation of the surrounding countries, the quasi-biennial oscillation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the recent global warming hiatus. Despite its distinct influence on global climate, NTAM has not received equivalent attention as other tropical variability (e.g. ENSO). By revisiting previous studies, this paper summarized the triggers and mechanisms responsible for the evolution and development of NTAM, including remote forcing from ENSO, south tropical Atlantic as well as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), local air-sea coupling, and the interactions among different triggers. Also, this paper detailedly introduced the ability of CMIP5 (The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulation. The prominent model biases over the equatorial Atlantic significantly limit the study of NTAM. Finally, a future prospective of NTAM interannual variability was presented.     

A high-resolution diatom record of late-Quaternary sea-surface temperatures and oceanographic conditions from the eastern Norwegian Sea

Core MD95‐2011 was taken from the eastern Vøring Plateau, near the Norwegian coast. The section between 250 and 750 cm covers the time period from 13 000 to 2700 cal. yr BP (the Lateglacial and much of the Holocene). Samples at 5 cm intervals were analysed for fossil diatoms. A data‐set of 139 modern sea‐surface diatom samples was related to contemporary sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) using two different numerical methods. The resulting transfer functions were used to reconstruct past sea‐surface temperatures from the fossil diatom assemblages. After the cold Younger Dryas with summer SSTs about 6°C, temperatures warmed rapidly to about 13°C. One of the fluctuations in the earliest Holocene can be related to the Pre‐Boreal Oscillation, but SSTs were generally unstable until about 9700 cal. yr BP. Evidence from diatom concentration and magnetic susceptibility suggests a change and stabilization of water currents associated with the final melting of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet at c. 8100 cal. yr BP. A period of maximum warmth between 9700 and 6700 cal. yr BP had SSTs 3–5°C warmer than at present. Temperatures cooled gradually until c. 3000 cal. yr BP, and then rose slightly around 2750 cal. yr BP. The varimax factors derived from the Imbrie & Kipp method for sea‐surface‐temperature reconstructions can be interpreted as water‐masses. They show a dominance of Arctic Waters and Sea Ice during the Younger Dryas. The North Atlantic current increased rapidly in strength during the early Holocene, resulting in warmer conditions than previously. Since about 7250 cal. yr BP, Norwegian Atlantic Water gradually replaced the North Atlantic Water, and this, in combination with decreasing summer insolation, led to a gradual cooling of the sea surface. Terrestrial systems in Norway and Iceland responded to this cooling and the increased supply of moisture by renewed glaciation. Periods of glacial advance can be correlated with cool oscillations in the SST reconstructions. By comparison with records of SSTs from other sites in the Norwegian Sea, spatial and temporal changes in patterns of ocean water‐masses are reconstructed, to reveal a complex system of feedbacks and influences on the climate of the North Atlantic and Norway.     

Wave processes of temperature changes at the surface of the Black Sea

Based on the conception of the cyclic (wave) nature of the changes in the circulation of the atmosphere of the Atlantic-European sector (index of the North Atlantic oscillations) and surface temperature of the Black Sea on scales smaller or equal to the century scale, anomalies of the winter surface temperature are analyzed. It is shown that in the phase of the maximum of the presumably 60-year cycle of changes in the NAO index a negative anomaly of surface temperature forms and in the phase of minimum of this scale of changes of NAO, there is a positive anomaly. Estimates of the possible thermal state of the surface of the Black Sea during the phase of the expected minimum in 2011–2020 of the 60-year cycle (60-year wave) of the NAO index are made. The possibility of a phase shift between changes in solar activity, the NAO index, and anomalies of temperature of the Black Sea on the scales of cyclic (wave) processes larger than 100 years is considered.     

千年尺度气候变率的研究

2 0世纪后期 ,千年 (ka)尺度气候变率的研究取得了重要的进展 ,这表现在以下几个方面 :(1)格陵兰冰芯及深海沉积证明 ,在末次冰期中普遍存在平均周期为 1 5ka的循环 ,有人认为全新世也存在这种循环 ,小冰期就是最近一个循环的冷期。 (2 )每个循环由 1个相对暖期 (间冰阶 )及 1个冷期(冰阶 )组成 ,称为Dansgaard/Oeshger循环 (D/O循环 )。 (3)连续几个D/O循环的冰阶气温愈来愈低 ,海因里希事件 (H事件 )就发生在最冷的冰阶之后。 (4 )自 15kaBP到 6 8kaBP共确定出 6次H事件 ,分别称为H1…H6,有的作者认为新仙女木事件 (YD)与H事件形成机制近似 ,可以称为H0 。 (5 )D/O循环与H事件的成因 ,目前尚无定论。但热盐环流 (THC)变化的学说得到了较多作者的承认。这个学说认为 :北大西洋北部的大量融冰使海面为冷的淡水控制 ,影响了大传送带中海水的下沉 ,从而削弱了深水的形成。北大西洋THC减弱 ,使向北输送的热量减少 ,使北大西洋气候更寒冷。一旦深水形成再次增加 ,完成一个D/O循环。H事件形成的机制与之类似 ,不过过程变化更为激烈。 (6 )这样 ,THC有 3种模态 :现代模 (北大西洋有两个泵 )、冰阶模 (一个泵 ) ,及H事件 (无泵 )。 (7)海洋环流模式已经对THC的变化及模态之间的转换进行了模拟 ,至少在一定程度?     

大高加索山南部大气降水氧同位素的气候意义

大高加索山脉位于黑海和里海之间,是欧洲与亚洲的分界线,该区域气候受到北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)的强烈影响。为了对该区域的大气降水δ18O (δ18OP) 与NAO的关系有更加深入的认识,本文利用大高加索山以南6个全球降水同位素监测网(Global Network of Isotope in Precipitation, GNIP)站点的δ18OP数据,分析该区域δ18OP 的季节变化规律,以及δ18OP与温度和降水量等气象要素及大气环流之间的关系。得到以下主要认识:① 在月时间尺度上,δ18OP与月平均温度之间有着显著的正相关关系(p<0.01),表明该区域δ18OP主要受当地温度控制,表现出“温度效应”。② 北大西洋涛动通过改变西风的强度和位置从而影响δ18OP 的变化:当NAO呈现负相位时,此时西风输送较弱,使得来自地中海的富含18O的水汽能够达到大高加索山以南,该地区δ18OP偏正。而当NAO正相位时,西风急流输送较强,从北大西洋穿越黑海带来更多的δ18OP 偏轻的降水。因此,NAO所导致的水汽输送路径的变化可能是影响大高加索山以南地区δ18OP的重要因素,这一研究结果为利用该地区地质记录中的δ18O记录来重建过去的NAO变化提供了前提。