Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

Ocean/atmosphere interaction and Malthusian catastrophes on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China, 1368–1911

How and to what extent are human societies affected by climate change? There has been a growing body of research using big historical data and statistical analyses to provide scientific answers to this inter-disciplinary research question. However, quantitative analysis measuring the historical demographic impact of ocean/atmosphere interaction is still scanty. Here we use 544 years (1368–1911) of historical records to trace the demographic impact brought about by ocean/atmosphere interaction in Shaanxi, located on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. Our results show that: (1) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused Malthusian catastrophes mainly through drought at the inter-annual scale; (2) drought reinforced the synchrony of various Malthusian catastrophes at the inter-annual to multi-decadal scale; and (3) the unusual cycles of NAO drove drought and various Malthusian catastrophes in the cold 1550–1730 period at the multi-decadal scale. This study represents a pioneering attempt to quantitatively assess the demographic impact caused by the ocean/atmosphere in historical China. Our findings may help to conceptualise the climate–human nexus in those ecologically marginal regions that are impacted by ocean/atmosphere interaction, and to explain the synchrony of social crisis in Eurasia in the 17th century.     

Late Holocene (0–2.4 ka BP) surface water temperature and salinity variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean

Planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopic compositions of a spliced sediment record from Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean (box core M200309 and piston core ENAM9606) trace late Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity changes over the past 2400 years. At this location, the variability of SST and oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ¹⁸O_w) reflects variable northward advection of warm and saline surface waters, which appears linked to climate variability over the adjacent European continent. Our records reveal a general long-term cooling trend. Superimposed on this overall trend, partly higher temperatures and salinities from 180 to 560 AD and 750 to 1160 AD may be ascribed to the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, respectively. Subsequently, our record displays highly variable surface water conditions; the main Little Ice Age SST minimum is restricted to the 15th and 16th centuries AD. Pervasive multidecadal- to centennial-scale variability throughout the sedimentary proxy records can be partly attributed to solar forcing and/or variable heat extraction from the surface ocean caused by shifts in the prevailing state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). High salinities in the 17th and 18th centuries are considered to reflect tropical anomalies linked to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, propagating across the North Atlantic Ocean.     

Cooling of the southern high latitudes during the Medieval Period and its effect on ENSO

A high-resolution multiproxy study performed on a marine record from SE Pacific off southern South America was used to reconstruct past regional environmental changes and their relation to global climate, particularly to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon during the last 2200 years. Our results suggest a sustained northward shift in the position of the zonal systems, i.e. the Southern Westerly Wind belt and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which occurred between 1300 and 750 yr BP. The synchrony of the latitudinal shift with cooling in Antarctica and reduced ENSO activity observed in several marine and terrestrial archives across South America suggests a causal link between ENSO and the proposed displacement of the zonal systems. This shift might have acted as a positive feedback to more La Niña-like conditions between 1300 and 750 yr BP by steepening the hemispheric and tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient. This scenario further suggests different boundary conditions for ENSO before 1300 and after 750 yr BP.     

Link of ocean deep water thermohaline anomalies with atmospheric state anomalies in the Northern Atlantic

Anomalies of thermohaline characteristics of the ocean deep waters formed in the subpolar North Atlantic are shown to be controlled by the natural oscillations of the atmospheric state in the region, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A general mechanism behind the NAO effect on the deep water temperature and salinity on a decadal time scale is proposed. The main factors determining the close link of the deep water thermohaline anomalies and the NAO are the zonal extension of the subpolar gyre and the wintertime deep convection intensity in the Labrador Sea.     

Differential modulation of eastern oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation: A dominant factor in variations of oceanic circulation systems of the Atlantic Ocean

On the basis of altimetry data, the dynamics of the interaction between the subtropical anticyclonic (SA) and subpolar cyclonic (SC) gyres of the North Atlantic is considered. It is shown that the westerlies in the lower troposphere represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are the main factor responsible for the dynamics of the gyres, which controls the inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Polar basin.     

珠江流域降水干湿时空特征及气候因子影响研究

利用模糊C-均值聚类算法、皮尔逊相关和滑动相关分析等方法,对珠江流域做了气候一致性分析,在此基础上,研究了珠江流域不同分区年降水和干湿季降水变化的时空特征,分析了区域干湿变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和太平洋10年涛动(PDO)等主要气候因子的遥相关关系,探讨了珠江流域干湿变化的气候成因。在此基础上,进一步研究上述气候指标对不同时间尺度干湿变化影响的平稳性与差异性。除此之外,还研究了气候指标的冷暖期对基于6个月SPI值的珠江流域干湿状态的影响。研究表明:(1)IOD、NAO和ENSO分别是导致珠江流域年降水、湿季降水和干季降水发生变化的主要影响因素,且对当年及下一年降水的影响是相反的。(2)珠江流域不同时间尺度的降水与对其有显著影响的气候指标(年降水与IOD,湿季降水与NAO,干季降水与ENSO),两者之间不同时期的滑动相关往往具有较强的相关性和前后相关一致性。(3)各气候指标对珠江流域不同时间尺度降水的影响在空间分布上不太均匀。(4)不同位相下气候指标对珠江流域干湿状态的影响存在较大差异。总体而言,当处于各气候指标暖期时珠江流域出现湿润期的概率较冷期时更大且在空间分布上更均匀。     

The last interglacial ocean

The final effort of the CLIMAP project was a study of the last interglaciation, a time of minimum ice volume some 122,000 yr ago coincident with the Substage 5e oxygen isotopic minimum. Based on detailed oxygen isotope analyses and biotic census counts in 52 cores across the world ocean, last interglacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) were compared with those today. There are small SST departures in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (warmer) and the Gulf of Mexico (cooler). The eastern boundary currents of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans are marked by large SST anomalies in individual cores, but their interpretations are precluded by no-analog problems and by discordancies among estimates from different biotic groups. In general, the last interglacial ocean was not significantly different from the modern ocean. The relative sequencing of ice decay versus oceanic warming on the Stage 6/5 oxygen isotopic transition and of ice growth versus oceanic cooling on the Stage 5e/5d transition was also studied. In most of the Southern Hemisphere, the oceanic response marked by the biotic census counts preceded (led) the global ice-volume response marked by the oxygen-isotope signal by several thousand years. The reverse pattern is evident in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where the oceanic response lagged that of global ice volume by several thousand years. As a result, the very warm temperatures associated with the last interglaciation were regionally diachronous by several thousand years. These regional lead-lag relationships agree with those observed on other transitions and in long-term phase relationships; they cannot be explained simply as artifacts of bioturbational translations of the original signals.     

Differential North Atlantic control of winter hydroclimate in late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Kortejärvi,eastern Finland

Sediment microfacies, geochemical μ‐XRF and X‐ray density analyses were conducted on varved sediments from Lake Kortejärvi (eastern Finland) covering the last 2700 years. The varves comprise couplets of detrital and organic sub‐layers throughout the complete time‐span. Based on their microfacies and stratigraphical position within a varve as well as comparisons with local discharge and meteorological data, thicker detrital layers are interpreted to reflect intensified snow‐melt floods following more humid winters. Detailed comparisons with monthly to annually resolved North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices back to AD 1049 (901 a BP) suggest that multidecadal increases in snow‐melt layer thickness tend to be connected with a more positive phase of the NAO and, consequently, warmer winters. In contrast, distinct centennial intervals of thicker snow‐melt layers from −40 to 170, 280 to 460 and 1900 to 2300 a BP as well as around 2600 a BP do not consistently correspond to a particular NAO phase, but coincide with extended sea‐ice margins and a colder North Atlantic climate, causing intensified and southward shifted westerly cyclones. Our results point to a differential modification of North Atlantic winter hydroclimate working on varying time scales.     

Oceanic evidence for the mechanism of rapid northern hemisphere glaciation

The oxygen isotopic stage 5/4 boundary in deep-sea sediments marks a prominent interval of northern hemisphere ice-sheet growth that lasted about 10,000 yr. During much of this rapid ice growth, the North Atlantic Ocean from at least 40°N to 60°N maintained warm sea-surface temperatures, within 1° to 2°C of today's subpolar ocean. This oceanic warmth provided a local source of moisture for ice-sheet accretion on the adjacent continents. The unusually strong thermal gradient off the east coast of North America (an “interglacial” ocean alongside a “glacial” land mass) also should have directed low-pressure storms from warm southern latitudes north-ward toward the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In addition, minimal calving of ice into the North Atlantic occurred during most of the stage 5/4 transition, indicative of ice retention within the continents. Diminished summer and autumn insolation, a warm subpolar ocean, and minimal calving of ice are conducive to rapid and extensive episodes of northern hemisphere ice-sheet growth.     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.     

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

Alternating Effects of Climate Drivers on Altamaha River Discharge to Coastal Georgia,USA

Freshwater delivery is an important factor determining estuarine character and health and may be influenced by large-scale climate oscillations. Variability in freshwater delivery (precipitation and discharge) to the Altamaha River estuary (GA, USA) was examined in relation to indices for several climate signals: the Bermuda High Index (BHI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Improved El Niño Modoki Index (IEMI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). Discharge to this estuary has been linked to key ecosystem properties (e.g., salinity regime, water residence time, nutrient inputs, and marsh processes), so understanding how climate patterns affect precipitation and river discharge will help elucidate how the estuarine ecosystem may respond to climate changes. Precipitation patterns in the Altamaha River watershed were described using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined multidecadal time series of precipitation at 14 stations. The first EOF (67 % of the variance) was spatially uniform, the second EOF (11 %) showed a spatial gradient along the long axis of the watershed (NW–SE), and the third EOF (6 %) showed a NE–SW pattern. We compared the principal components (PCs) associated with these EOFs, monthly standardized anomalies of Altamaha River discharge at the gauge closest to the estuary, and the climate indices. Complex, seasonally alternating patterns emerged. The BHI was correlated with June–January discharge and precipitation PC 1. The SOI was correlated with January–April discharge and precipitation PC 2, and also weakly correlated with PC 1 in November–December. The AMO was correlated with river discharge and precipitation PC 3 mainly in December–February and June. The correlation patterns of precipitation PCs with PDO and PNA were similar to those with SOI, but weaker. There were no consistent relationships with two NAO indices or IEMI. Connections between climate signals and estimates of nutrient loading were consistent with the connections to discharge. The occurrence of tropical storms in the region was strongly related to the BHI but not to the other climate indices, possibly representing the influence of storm tracking more than the rate of storm formation. Comparison with the literature suggests that the patterns found may be typical of southeastern USA estuaries but are likely to be different from those outside the region.     

Landfalling tropical cyclones on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1850-2010

Historical documents and newspapers from Mexican Pacific states (north of 14° N) were reviewed to determine the incidence of landfalling tropical cyclones from 1850 to 1949, prior to the start of the United States National Hurricane Center database. The reviewed documents are only found in Mexican repositories at national, state and municipal level and the systematic search embarked upon in this study yielded valuable information that cannot be found elsewhere. Atime series of landfall was reconstructed back to 1850, indicating active and quiet periods. An average of 1.8 ± 1.6 landfalls per year is determined from the time series for 1850-2010. When the series is limited to 1880-2010, eliminating the first 30 years that may have some undercounting, the average increases to 2.1 ± 1.6 cases per year. Spectral and wavelet analysis of the 161 years of landfalling tropical cyclones indicates that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the activity. The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the landfall frequency may be present throughout the reconstruction period but both oscillations have lower correlations compared to that from the PDO.     

中国水汽输送年际和年代际变化研究进展

大气中的水汽输送对于全球的水分循环、气候系统、生态环境等具有重要意义。水汽输送是影响中国旱涝空间分布的重要因素，其年际和年代际变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、海温、北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛动等因素对东亚大气环流的调控作用有关。本文就近期关于中国地区水汽输送年际和年代际变化的部分研究工作进行了回顾和评述，包括影响中国东部降水年际和年代际变化的水汽输送机制、影响梅雨特征年代际变化的水汽输送机制、热带海温对中国上空水汽输送的影响机制等问题。此外，本文回顾了近期与青藏高原地区水汽输送机制有关的研究进展。     

Daily precipitation distributions over the intra-Americas sea and their interannual variability

The seasonal (March to October) and interannual variability of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation is examined for Meso-America, the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic, commonly referred to as the intra-Americas sea (IAS). Large-area precipitation CDFs were constructed over land and temperature pools greater than 28.5° C and between 26.5° and 28.5° C. The cooler waters tend to have their precipitation distributions shifted to lower values as compared to land and the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP). The land and the WHWP have similar precipitation distributions from March to May. From June to October the land histogram of precipitation is narrower (less light and heavy rainfall) relative to the WHWP histogram. The highest probability of finding heavy to extreme precipitation over the WHWP is in June. From 1997 to 2008, in the summer months, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is related to the CDFs of precipitation over land, where during El Niño there is a shift toward lower daily rain totals. There is not a strong relationship between ENSO and the CDFs of precipitation over the ocean pools. Finally, a large WHWP in May-June-July is related to the CDF of precipitation over the WHWP in October, namely a shift towards higher daily rain totals and more extreme events. The size of the July WHWP explains 75% of the variability in the frequency of rainfall greater than 50 mm within the WHWP in October, and the root mean square error between the observed points and the linear models is about 0.005. However, the reason for this apparent predictability is not simply due to a warm seasonal anomaly leading to local thermodynamic effects. The concurrent correlation between the size of the WHWP in October and the CDF of precipitation therein is small, indicating a lack of a contemporaneous response. Here it is shown through atmospheric-oceanic reanalysis that rainfall extremes in October are dependent upon the development of the Atlantic portion of the WHWP in May-June-July. Large WHWPs in these months are consistent with an early onset of the Atlantic warm pool and atmospheric instability over Central America leading to extreme precipitation events in the fall.     

The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the western North Pacific

This study attempts to understand why the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was a record low during the 2010 season, by analyzing the effect of several large-scale factors. The genesis potential index (GPI) can represent, to some extent, the spatial distribution of formation in 2010. However, the GPI does not explain the extremely low TC frequency. No robust relationship between the TC number and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found. A comparison of the extreme inactive TC year 2010 and extreme active year 1994 was performed, based on the box difference index that can measure the quantitative difference of large-scale environmental factors. Dynamic factors were found to be important in differentiating TC formation over the WNP basin between 2010 and 1994. The remarkable difference of monsoon flows in the WNP basin between these two years may be the cause of the difference in TC formation. The unfavorable conditions for TC genesis in 2010 may have also been due to other large scale factors such as: (1) weak activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the peak season; (2) warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean during the peak season, causing the development of an anticyclone over the WNP basin and associated with the westward motion of the monsoon trough, and (3) the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (more negative) and the two strong La Niña events that have evolved since 2006.     

公元1000—2000年中国北方地区极端干旱事件序列重建与分析

利用历史文献记录重建了公元1000—2000年中国北方地区极端干旱事件序列,在此基础上分析极端干旱事件的发生特征与规律。研究得出以下结论:(1)极端干旱事件在公元1000—2000年中存在200年左右的周期波动。在15世纪中期、17世纪初期和18世纪末期存在3次极端干旱事件高发期。(2)极端干旱事件的变动与中国东部地区干湿变化相一致,在偏干的时期极端干旱事件发生次数上升,在偏湿时则下降。(3)在中世纪暖期和现代暖期,温度愈高,极端干旱事件偏多;而在小冰期,则温度偏低的时期极端干旱事件多发。(4)西风带影响下的非季风区,干湿变化与极端干旱事件的关系与华北季风区相反,这可能与所谓的“丝绸之路遥相关”和NAO(NorthAtlanticOscillation,北大西洋涛动)的影响有关。     

Tropical cyclones,global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies

The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, South Pacific Ocean, and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended alternating periods of greater and lesser TC activity over the past 6000 years. The length of these phases of relative inactivity and greater activity depends on the chronological resolution of the record, with the coarser‐resolution ones displaying multi‐century to millennial‐scale episodes and the high‐resolution records displaying decadal to centennial‐scale oscillations. In several instances the likely causes of these alternating periods of TC behaviour have been attributed to different phases of climate when El Niños and La Niñas dominated or to longer‐term variations in sea surface temperatures and possibly solar forcing. The picture emerging from these records is that TC behaviour is not entirely stochastic over the long term and that any simulations of long‐term TC behaviour need to account for these climatic influences. Incorporation of these observations, and the many more needed, is important for understanding the future behaviour of TCs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.