Formation process of a large paleolandslide-dammed lake at Xuelongnang in the upper Jinsha River,SE Tibetan Plateau: constraints from OSL and <Superscript>14</Superscript>C dating

A large number of the landslide dams located on the major rivers at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau have been previously identified through remote sensing analysis and field investigations. The Xuelongnang paleolake was one of the lakes formed by these landslide dams in the upper Jinsha River, where the association of a relict landslide dam, lacustrine sediment, and outburst sediment is well preserved. This preservation provides an opportunity to better understand the formation, evolution, and longevity of a large landslide-dammed lake in the upper Jinsha River. It was inferred that the Xuelongnang dammed lake may have been formed by an earthquake-induced paleoavalanche. The surface area of the lake at its peak was estimated at 7.0?×?10⁶ m², and the corresponding volume was approximately 3.1?×?10⁸ m³. Two outburst flood events were determined to have occurred during the life span of the lake. Based on the 18 ages obtained from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and carbon-14 (¹⁴C) dating combined with stratigraphic sequences observed in the field, the paleolandslide-dammed lake was formed at approximately 2.1 ka and subsequently breached locally. The dammed lake was sustained for a period of some 900 years based on the chronological constraining. This study confirms that a major landslide-dammed lake can be sustained for at least hundreds of years and breached by several dam breaks in multiple periods, which contributed to the preservation of the knickpoints at millennial scale along the major rivers in the study area.     

Mechanism of the giant Seimareh Landslide,Iran, and the longevity of its landslide dams

Seimareh Landslide (SL) is globally recognized as one of the largest rock mass movements in the world. It is located along the border of Ilam and Lorestan provinces in southwest Iran, in the heart of the Zagros Mountain Range. There are controversial findings about the mechanism of the landslide formation. This field work study reviewed the possible mechanisms of failure and analyzed post-failure geomorphic features. Drainage pattern disturbance in the depositional region and consequent dammed lake formation are among the most significant characteristics of these features. Seimareh, Jaidar and Balmak are three large landslide-dammed lakes. The present study analyzed the processes responsible for the formation and erosion of the Jaidar and Seimareh Landslide dams using the available annual sedimentation and field measurements of the sediment deposited in these lakes. The results showed that the SL dam has been formed about 935 years after the landslide event. Detailed field investigations indicated a specific hydro-morphological condition in the landslide area. The results implied that the main causes of the failure were probably the particular hydro-morphological characteristic of the landslide source area together with the enormous eroding energy resulted from merging of two high-flow rivers which eroded the base of the southern flank of Kabir-kuh Mountain. However, the unusual size of the landslide suggests that an external factor, e.g., a huge earthquake, might have triggered the failure.     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Risk assessment and mitigation for the Hongshiyan landslide dam triggered by the 2014 Ludian earthquake in Yunnan,China

An Ms 6.5 earthquake shocked the Ludian County, Yunnan Province, China, on 3 August 2014 and triggered the Hongshiyan landslide dam. The dam, with a height of 83 m and a lake capacity of 260?×?10⁶ m³, threatened more than 10,000 people. A unique feature of this landslide dam was that it formed between a man-made dam and a hydropower plant. An existing drainage tunnel connecting the lake and the hydropower plant became a natural drainage conduit for the landslide dam, which played an important role in the mitigation of the landslide dam risks. This paper reports a quantitative risk assessment for the Hongshiyan landslide dam considering both engineering and non-engineering risk mitigation measures. The risk assessment is divided into three stages according to the implementation of two engineering measures: construction of a diversion channel and excavation of a branch drainage tunnel. The dam breaching hydrographs, flood zones, population at risk, and likely fatalities in each of the three stages are analysed. The optimum evacuation strategy in each stage is also studied based on the principle of minimum total consequence. It is found that the diversion channel decreases the dam breaching peak discharge and the associated risks significantly. The branch drainage tunnel prevent the landslide dam from overtopping failure in non-flooded period; however, the landslide dam may fail by overtopping in a future flood if the inflow rate is larger than the outflow rate through the drainage tunnels, resulting in serious losses of lives and properties. The dam breaching risks in all the three stages could be largely reduced by the optimal evacuation decision, which shows that timely evacuation is vital to save life and properties. The study provides a scientific basis for decision making in landslide dam risk management.     

Modeling the risk assessment of landslide-dammed lakes based on the emergency response measures in Wenchuan earthquake, 2008, China

With the rapid development of urbanization and climate change, the frequency and degree of the natural hazards and extreme weather events have increased, such as the earthquake, flood, and torrential rain. And the landslide-dammed lake as the secondary disaster of these hazards has become a major threat to many countries. So from twentieth century, many countries have begun to explore the effective emergency response method to reduce the danger of the landslide-dammed lake to the surrounded environment and people. Particularly in China, with successfully dealing with three high-risk landslide-dammed lakes in recent 10 years, the Chinese government has accumulated a great deal of experience in managing the landslide-dammed lakes. So in this paper, based on the Chinese and many other countries’ emergency response experience of successfully managing the landslide-dammed lakes, we build an outburst time–predicted model which can use the Dimensionless blockage index value to predict the outburst time of the landslide-dammed lakes. Based on the urgent time in the process of emergency response to the landslide-dammed lake, we build an integrated risk assessment model with the gray relational analysis and Technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution approach to evaluate the risk value and judge the risk level of the landslide-dammed lake from three aspects (the stability of the landslide-dammed lake, the hydrological environment, and the vulnerability factor of the surrounding environment). These two models can quickly and accurately determine the risk level of landslide-dammed lake in case of lack of complete and detailed data. So it would provide an important reference for government to make the scientific and effective emergency response plan to deal with the extremely high-risk landslide-dammed lake disasters in the future.     

青藏高原东北缘黄河上游滑坡与堰塞湖研究进展

随着黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展上升为国家战略,滑坡灾害防治成为迫切需要攻克的基础性问题。另外,黄河上游地区因地形高差大、古地震及强降雨事件频繁,诱发的滑坡及滑坡堰塞湖数量多、分布广、危害重,是近年来滑坡发育和演化机制以及滑坡堰塞湖溃决效应研究的热点。本文在综合整理该地区已有研究工作的基础上,结合笔者研究团队近20年来所获得的滑坡调查评价、测试分析和防灾减灾研究成果,系统归纳了黄河上游地区滑坡调查与风险评价、滑坡时空展布规律及主控因素研究、典型滑坡堰塞湖的续存时长及溃决危害、古滑坡堆积体开发利用及防灾减灾等方面的研究进展和成果,提出了未来在该地区研究古滑坡、堰塞湖沉积与河流阶地以及堰塞湖溃决效应等应关注的4个科学问题。研究结果对于揭示黄河上游地质历史时期滑坡发育和堰塞湖形成的主控因素,探讨滑坡发育的动力机制对地震和降雨的响应过程,拓展第四纪地质学在古滑坡形成演变方面的应用研究等具有重要参考价值。     

堰塞湖应急处置实践与认识

堰塞湖是由于山体滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等堵塞河道形成的没有经过专门设计、没有专门的泄水设施的湖泊,一旦溃决,容易给下游造成巨大的灾难。分析了堰塞湖的成因、溃决机理与风险判断,提出堰塞湖应急处置的原则、理念、阶段与处置方法,总结了堰塞湖应急处置中的一些经验和认识。以四川省汶川特大地震形成的堰塞湖应急处置为例,从可能溃决方式、溃坝洪水、应急除险总体方案、开渠引流方案和除险效果等方面,介绍了唐家山堰塞湖的应急处置实践,并简要介绍了其它一些堰塞湖应急处置。     

Formation,failure, and consequences of the Xiaolin landslide dam,triggered by extreme rainfall from Typhoon Morakot,Taiwan

An extreme rainfall event on August 9, 2009, which was close to setting a world record for 48-h accumulated rainfall, induced the Xiaolin deep-seated landslide, which was located in southwestern Taiwan and had volume of 27.6?×?10⁶?m³, and caused the formation of a landslide dam. The landslide dam burst in a very short time, and little information remained afterward. We reconstructed the process of formation and failure of the Xiaolin landslide dam and also inferred the area of the impoundment and topographic changes. A 5?×?5-m digital elevation model, the recorded water stage of the Qishan River, and data from field investigation were used for analysis. The spectral magnitude of the seismic signals induced by the Xiaolin landslide and flooding due to failure of the landslide dam were analyzed to estimate the timing of the dam breach and the peak discharge of the subsequent flood. The Xiaolin landslide dam failure resulted from overtopping. We verified the longevity of the Xiaolin landslide dam at about 2 h relying on seismic signals and water level records. In addition, the inundated area, volume of the impoundment behind the Xiaolin landslide dam, and peak discharge of the flood were estimated at 92.3 ha, 19.5?×?10⁶?m³, and 17?×?10³?m³/s, respectively. The mean velocity of the flood-recession wave front due to the dam blockage was estimated at 28 km/h, and the peak flooding velocity after failure of the dam was estimated at 23 km/h. The Xiaolin landslide provides an invaluable opportunity for understanding the mechanism of deep-seated landslides and flooding processes following a landslide dam failure.     

Rock avalanching into a landslide-dammed lake causing multiple dam failure in Las Conchas valley (NW Argentina) — evidence from surface exposure dating and stratigraphic analyses

Generally landslide dams which exist for several hundreds to thousands of years are considered as stable. We show with an example from the Argentine Andes that such dams can exist for several thousands of years but still may fail catastrophically. Multiple rock avalanches impounded two lakes with surface areas of ~8 km² and ~600 km², respectively, in Las Conchas valley, NW Argentina. Surface exposure dating (SED) by ¹⁰Be of the rock-avalanche deposits or landslide scars indicates that these landslides occurred at 15,300±2,000 yr and 13,550±900 yr. The dams were stable during a strong earthquake, as suggested by seismites within related lake sediments and by multiple coeval landslides in this region, which occurred at ~7.5 kyr. However, when a further rock-avalanche fell into the lower, smaller lake at 4,800±500 yr the dam downriver was destroyed, presumably by the resulting tsunami wave. The resulting flood also destroyed an additional rock-fall dam which had formed at ~5,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP 30 km downriver. The new dam formed by the second rock avalanche was eroded prior to 3,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP. This dam erosion coincides with an important climatic shift towards more humid conditions in the Central Andes. Our results show that instead of direct effects of strong seismicity on landslide dams, (1) landsliding into a landslide-dammed lake, (2) abrupt hydrological changes, and (3) climate change towards conditions related to enhanced run-off are processes which can produce failures of quasi-stable natural dams.     

Large-scale landslides in Toyama Prefecture,central Japan,and their probable relationship with earthquakes

Large-scale landslides along the Kubusu and Besso rivers in Toyama Prefecture are developed in the Miocene Iwaine Formation, which is composed of andesitic lava, tuff, and tuff breccia. In the middle member of this formation, the tuff is easily altered to montmorillonite-bearing rock, and subsequently plays an important role in the development of landslides events, which tend to be large-scale events, as the massive lava of the upper member forms a cap rock over the tuff. The Kiritani and Koinami basins, which are flat intermontane basins located along the Kubusu and Besso rivers, respectively, are interpreted as landslide-dammed lakes, later filled with sediment. Accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C ages show that the landslides forming each dam occurred simultaneously, at approximately 2500 BP. These ages were measured from wood fragments embedded in the landslide material of Kiritani, and from an in situ stump drowned during the impoundment of Koinami. If the trigger of these landslides was an earthquake, it is most likely to have been the penultimate event along the Atotsugawa fault zone.     

The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation

The Wenchuan earthquake, measured at M _s 8.0 according to the China Earthquake Administration, occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province of China. It brought overwhelming destruction to eight provinces and cities. Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the earthquake produced 257 landslide lakes which were distributed along the fault rupture zone and river channels. The authors traveled to the disaster zone immediately after the earthquake to examine some of the features of the debris dams and performed a quick evaluation of the potential for outburst of earthquake-induced landslide lakes for the purpose of disaster relief. The preliminary analysis indicated that the landslide lakes could be classified as those exhibiting extremely high risk, medium risk, and low risk according to field observations and remote sensing, to determine material composition, dam structure, dam height, maximum water storage capacity, and size of the population potentially affected area. The failure risk of 21 debris dams were evaluated as follows: one dam with an extremely high danger risk, seven dams with a high danger, five dams with a medium danger, and eight dams of low danger. More concern was given to the Tangjiashan Lake and different scenarios for the potential sudden failure of its dam were assessed. The risk evaluation result was accepted in full, by the earthquake disaster relief office. A successful emergency dam treatment for risk reduction was planned, based on our assessments, and these measures were quickly carried out. According to this research, the earthquake destabilized the surrounding mountains, resulting in a prolonged geohazard for the area. Landslides and debris flows will continue to develop for at least 5 to 10 years after the Wenchuan earthquake and will produce additional dammed lakes. Recommendations and plans for earthquake–landslide lake mitigation were proposed, based on past successful practices.     

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Inundation Potentials Analysis for Tsao-Ling Landslide Lake Formed by Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan

Without any omen, massive landslides induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake blocked up gorges of Ching-Shui creek, and produced a new landslide lake.Although emergency spillways have been constructed to prevent dam failures,overtopping and possible breaching may still occur due to excessive inflows in raining seasons. As a result, the downstream valleys will have serious inundation and the safety of people and properties will be in immediate danger. The purpose of this work is to simulate and to analyze the inundation potentials downstream of Tsao-Ling landslide lake using a hydrologic/hydraulic approach and GIS (Geographic Information System) technology. Hydrologic analysis is employed to describe regional rainfall-runoff characteristics andto design rainfall/runoff scenarios. One-dimensional dam break flood routings are performed with different return periods of rainfall events and dam failure durations for downstream creeks. The depletion hydrographs of dam break routings are applied into two-dimensional overland flow simulations for downstream lowlands. The results of hydraulic computations are evaluated with GIS maps for inundation potentials analysis, which can be usedto assist the planning of emergency response measures.     

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8 October 2005

The Kashmir Earthquake of the 8 October killed an estimated 87 350 people, 25 500 through co-seismic landslides. The largest landslide associated with the earthquake was the 68 × 10⁶ m³ Hattian Bala rock avalanche that destroyed a village and killed around 1000 people. The deposit blocks the valley to a depth of 130 m impounding a lake that reached the dam-crest in April 2007. An outburst flood now threatens a major settlement 3 km downstream. A series of space images reveals landslide clusters in the rock avalanche source area prior to the earthquake. The images also reveal a large slow-moving landslide with its toe in the lake, failure of this landslide may induce dam failure through overtopping and scour. Eighty five landslides in the Hattian Bala catchment predate the shaking of 8 October 2005, a further 73 are co-seismic with the main shock, and 21 postdate it in the period up to October 2006. Landslide magnitude–frequency distribution plots derived from satellite images allow an assessment of the contribution of seismically triggered events as compared to background rates of activity.     

Geological Characteristics and Stability Evaluation of Wanjia Middle School Slope in Wenchuan Earthquake Area

To investigate the formation mechanism and the stability of Wanjia middle school slope in Wenchuan Earthquake Area, the macroscopic geological characteristics and the failure process of the landslide are researched by engineering geology analysis method, limit equilibrium method, and finit element method. The results show that after the Wenchuan Earthquake, retaining walls, houses and other infrastructure on the foot of Wanjia middle school slope were severely destroyed, 10 cm wide tension fracture appeared at the trailing edge of the slope. Wanjia middle school slope is a type of medium-sized soil landslide. The area of the deformation body is about 19,314 m², the total volume of the deformation body is about 23 × 10⁴ m³. There may be two potential sliding surfaces in the unstable slope: shallow and deep landslide. The analysis results of the limit equilibrium method and the finite element method show that: under dead weight, dead weight + rainstorm, dead weight + earthquake conditions, the plastic zone occurs mainly at the middle part or the trailing edge of the slope, and it doesn’t fully cut through the deep landslide body, so the deep landslide is stable. However, under rainstorm or earthquake conditions, the plastic zone almost completely cut thorough the shallow landslide body, it shows that the shallow landslide is in the understable–basic stable state. It is found that the results of finite element method is concordant with the results of the limit equilibrium method (F _s = 1.06–1.29, the shallow landslide is in the basic stable–stable state). The calculation results show that shallow landslides are likely to occur in Wanjia middle school slope during a rainstorm or an earthquake, so monitoring and control of the slope should be strengthened. The shallow landslide should be managed by some measures, such as anti slide pile retaining structures and drainage works, and the dangerous rock bodies on the slope surface should be cleaned up.     

红石河堰塞湖漫顶溃坝风险评估

四川省青川县红石河堰塞湖是2008年5月12日汶川大地震形成的34座大型堰塞湖之一,是由东河口滑坡堵塞红石河形成的。该堰塞体高度约50 m、宽度约250 m、顺河向长度约500 m、形成的最大库容约400万m3。本文作者对红石河堰塞体做了较详尽的现场试验,包括土的冲蚀试验、土的基本物性试验等。基于现场试验数据,对土的冲蚀性和漫顶溃坝风险做了详细的分析。结果显示,从土的抗冲蚀性角度考虑,只要有水溢出就会有土体被冲蚀,这说明红石河堰塞体的漫顶溃决可能性较高。本文还提出经验公式来预测红石河堰塞体漫顶的溃决时间,大约为4.5d,如果考虑到大石块对抗冲蚀稳定性的有利影响,这一数值会增大。此外,还研究了溃决深度随时间的变化规律。     

紫山灰坝迎灰坡裂缝成因分析及灌浆防治对策

因曝气池漫顶溃坝,使紫山灰坝排渗盲沟和迎灰坡无砂混凝土面遭到局部破坏,造成排渗盲沟出口处排水量增大,有时漏灰,在排渗盲沟进口处灰面出现漏水漏灰漏斗,先在无砂混凝土面(刚性体)、后在迎灰坡坡面(柔性体)出现多条裂缝。分析产生裂缝的原因是由滑坡形成的,在实施临时抢险保坝措施和选择防治方案前提下,做了充填式灌浆可行性试验,从而对裂缝进行了灌浆处理,随后接受了当年夏季特大暴雨的考验,至今该坝运行正常。灌浆效果很好。     

Characteristics and numerical runout modeling of the heavy rainfall-induced catastrophic landslide–debris flow at Sanxicun,Dujiangyan, China,following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a large number of extensive landslides. It also affected geologic properties of the mountains such that large-scale landslides followed the earthquake, resulting in the formation of a disaster chain. On 10 July 2013, a catastrophic landslide–debris flow suddenly occurred in the Dujiangyan area of Sichuan Province in southeast China. This caused the deaths of 166 people and the burying or damage of 11 buildings along the runout path. The landslide involved the failure of ≈1.47 million m³, and the displaced material from the source area was ≈0.3 million m³. This landslide displayed shear failure at a high level under the effects of a rainstorm, which impacted and scraped an accumulated layer underneath and a heavily weathered rock layer during the release of potential and kinetic energies. The landslide body entrained a large volume of surface residual diluvial soil, and then moved downstream along a gully to produce a debris flow disaster. This was determined to be a typical landslide–debris flow disaster type. The runout of displaced material had a horizontal extent of 1200 m and a vertical extent of 400 m. This was equivalent to the angle of reach (fahrböschung angle) of 19° and covered an area of 0.2 km². The background and motion of the landslide are described in this study. On the basis of the above analysis, dynamic simulation software (DAN3D) and rheological models were used to simulate the runout behavior of the displaced landslide materials in order to provide information for the hazard zonation of similar types of potential landslide–debris flows in southeast China following the Wenchuan earthquake. The simulation results of the Sanxicun landslide revealed that the frictional model had the best performance for the source area, while the Voellmy model was most suitable for the scraping and accumulation areas. The simulations estimated that the motion could last for ≈70 s, with a maximum speed of 47.7 m/s.     

Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan,Sichuan province,China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake,May 12, 2008): risk assessment,mitigation strategy,and lessons learned

Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2.04 × 10⁷ m³ of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3.15 × 10⁸ m³, potentially inundating 8.92 km² of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1.3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3.35, 3.84, 4.22, and 4.65 km² of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4.6, 5.1, 5.7, and 6.2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid–triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future.     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.