南极臭氧洞与南极涡旋的变化——IAP模式的试验结果

通过对IAP9层全球大气环流模式试验结果的分析,讨论了1987年南极臭氧洞对平流层大气辐射加热率和温、压、风场的影响。结果表明,南半球高纬和极地平流层臭氧含量的耗损,使该地区辐射加热率明显减小,气温明显下降,等压面明显下降,南极涡旋明显加强,说明南极春季涡旋的强弱与该地区臭氧含量及其热状况有密切关系。     

青藏高原臭氧的准两年振荡

通过对臭氧卫星观测资料及大气环流资料的分析,研究了青藏高原上空臭氧的季节和年际变化.通过分析青藏高原地区臭氧准两年振荡(QBO),并与同纬度无山区及赤道地区臭氧QBO进行比较,指出:青藏高原臭氧QBO的平均周期为29个月,平均振幅为8DU.青藏高原臭氧QBO变化位相与热带平流层纬向风场QBO相反,即热带平流层纬向西风时,青藏高原上空臭氧总量偏小,东风时臭氧总量偏大.还讨论了与青藏高原臭氧QBO相关的大气环流物质输送理论.     

南极臭氧洞对全球大气辐射加热场影响的数值模拟研究

为了探讨南极臭氧洞对全球气候的影响状况,我们用IAP_9层全球大气环流模式进行了南极臭氧洞气候效应的数值试验。本文分析了本次试验中南极臭氧洞引起的大气辐射加热场的变化,结果表明,南半球高纬和极地平流层臭氧含量的严重减少,不仅影响该地的大气辐射加热场,同时也使北半球平流层大气的辐射加热场发生改变。虽然对流层中层所受影响较少,但对流层下层南北半球的大气总辐射加热率的变化却相当明显,这些影响将使全球大气温度场产生明显变化。     

北极臭氧洞

正2020年由于北极地区大气环流异常,春季平流层极涡中温度持续偏低,平流层冰晶云面积也创新高,臭氧的化学损耗更大,低值低于220220 DU,故而首次出现了臭氧洞。在目前大气环境被污染的情况下,南极臭氧洞的变化和北极臭氧洞是否出现等,取决于南北两极春季平流层极涡及其低温状态的变化。2020年春季,首个北极臭氧洞出现与春季平流层极涡的持续低温有关,是由大气环流等自然因素引起的,并无环境指示意义。     

北半球春季大气臭氧年际变化特征及其对大气温度和环流场的影响

北半球春季中高纬地区大气臭氧总量具有明显的年际变化，正（负）异常时，与其相应对的流层平均温度、位势高度场均为负（正）异常，平流层异常情况相反，北大西洋地区大气臭氧年际异常与其他地区正好相反，这是区别大气臭氧与其他温室气体影响的重要标志。     

南极对流层-平流层下部气候变化特征及其原因

利用南极16站30余年地面至30hPa10层月平均气温距平序列资料,采用最大熵功率谱方法,研究了南极对流层至平流层下部气候变化的长期趋势和周期性特征,并讨论了平流层(对流层)气候变化与南极臭氧总量(南半球500hPa环流)变化之间的联系。指出:南极气温具有明显的长期趋势和周期性变化;平流层下部显着变冷、对流层增暖,变化最大层高度在100、700hPa,最大降冷速率远大于增暖速率,气层稳定度趋于减弱;30、50hPa气温具有准两年周期,100hPa上下具有显着的年周期,对流层是以3.5年甚低频周期为主;对流层顶气温无显着趋势变化和周期性变化;南极最大臭氧层高度显着变冷与近15年来臭氧层损耗有关。南半球对流层中部极涡及绕极气流减弱是南极对流层气候变暖的直接原因。     

春季南极昭和站上空增温与臭氧含量和分布的关系

本文利用南极昭和站1966—1979年的臭氧和高空气象资料,讨论了春季南极大气爆发性增温及其与臭氧总量、臭氧分压垂直分布的关系,发现如下事实:1.平流层爆发性增温与臭氧总量突变有三种类型,即一次突变型,两次突变型和一次突变与一次缓变混合型;2.平流层爆发性增温3—5天后,对流层上部也有一次剧烈升温;3.增温过程自平流层上部向对流层下传时,伴随着臭氧分压增压中心逐渐向下传递;在平流层各等压面上,臭氧分压变化与气温变化值之间有较好的正相关,相关系数为0.85.     

南极对流层—平流层下部气候变化特征及其原因

利用南极１６站３０余年地面至３０ｈＰａ１０层月平均气温距平序列资料，采用最大熵功率谱方法，研究了南极对流层至平流层下部气候变化的长期趋势和周期性特征，并讨论了平流层（对流层）气候变化与南极臭氧总量（南半球５００ｈＰａ环流）变化之间的联系。指出：南极气温具有明显的长期趋势和周期性变化；平流层下部显著变冷，对流层增暖，变化最大层高度在１００，７００ｈＰａ，最大降冷速率远大于增暖速率，气层稳定度趋于减弱     

平流层臭氧变化对对流层气候影响的研究进展

平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。     

南极臭氧洞的影响因子和变化趋势

利用卫星和台站观测的南极臭氧资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了南极臭氧近年来的变化特征和影响因子,探讨了南极臭氧洞期间中山站臭氧突变过程与大气动力的作用。结果显示,平流层氯和溴的卤化物当量（EESC）和平流层温度是影响南极臭氧洞面积的关键因子。臭氧总量与EESC和平流层温度均具有显著相关,表明两站虽然都位于臭氧洞边缘,EESC和平流层温度对臭氧总量的变化仍然可以起决定性的作用,同时也验证了EESC参数在东南极大陆沿岸具有适用性。 EESC的年代际变化与臭氧变化趋势相似,臭氧的年际变化与平流层温度关系密切。回归结果表明,2010年后臭氧洞面积逐渐减小,在2070年左右可能恢复到1980年前的水平,但其结果存在很大的不确定性。     

Ozone variations in the Northern polar region

Summary All total ozone observations ever made in the Northern polar region, including some from the 1930's, have been corrected and the basic climatology presented. The long-term ozone changes were considered in relation to the stratospheric temperatures. For each deviation from the monthly normal of the 100 hPa temperature by 1°C, there was found to be a corresponding 5–6 m atm-cm change in the monthly ozone deviation. A distinction between the ozone regimes over the Scandinavian, Canadian and East Siberian sectors of the polar region was noted. The strong appearance of the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in the interannual ozone fluctuations was obvious. It is demonstrated that for the past three decades the total ozone experienced a few periods with positive and a few periods with negative deviations. In view of this, trends in ozone must obviously be based on greater than 10 years of data. During 1964–86, the weighted trend over the polar stations was (–0.9±0.4)% per decade. There have been, however, three periods (1958–64, 1968–76 and 1979–86), coinciding with the declining phase of the 11 year sunspot cycle, during which the ozone at all polar stations has been declining by about 0.5% per year (or less if the QBO component is filtered out). Some of the differences with Antarctic ozone are mentioned and the dominant role of the stratospheric circulation for the ozone variations is discussed. In general the Arctic ozone observations show no evidence of a major ozone decline similar to that over Antarctica.With 9 Figures     

南极地区温度和海冰的变化特征及相互关系

对南极地区温度和海冰的时空变化特征及相互关系进行的初步研究结果表明:近30余年来南极地区有显著的变暖趋势，时空差异比较明显。 其中以南极半岛地区的变暖趋势最大，为整个东南极沿岸增温率的2～3倍。近20年来，整个平均的南极海冰和温度的变化趋势相反，年际变化的相关关系不显著。经过聚类分析划分出不同的气候区，能清楚地显示出某些区两者的关系。海冰与同区沿岸温度距平相关信号最强区在南大西洋至西南太平洋海域。     

ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AND THE POLAR VORTEX INDEX:TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP*

The cluster analysis method has been used to divide the Antarctic sea ice variation field into 5 sectors.Then,for each of these sectors,the corresponding indexes of vortex area and vortex intensity on the 500 hPa level have been calculated.These data were used to analyse the temporal and spatial characteristics of both Antarctic sea ice and the vortex index variations and their relationship.Our results show that substantial differences are presented in the climatic pattern and interannual variations of the sea ice data and vortex index in different sectors.The maximum sea ice extent variations appear in sector 1 and sector 4.Oscillation periods of 2-2.5 and 5-7 years exist in the variations of sea ice extent and vortex index in most sectors.A positive trend is only found in sector 1 sea ice extent while the other sectors shown egative trends.The average extent of the Antarctic sea ice as a whole has retreated at a rate of 1.6 latitudes per 100 years.The vortex areas for all sectors have decreased.Nevertheless,the vortex intensities in 3 sectors have increased.The relationship between sea ice and vortex characters in each sector is obvious,but a little complex.Sectors 1 and 5,which are located in the Southeast Pacific and South Atlantic,are the most sensitive areas in terms of sea ice/atmosphere interaction.     

MULTIPLE TIME SCALE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE VARIATION IN MACAU DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

The multiple time scale climate changes are studied and calculated with statistical analysis and wavelet transformation on the basis of daily series of observed data over the period 1901-2007 in Macau.The result shows that statistically significant oscillations with 2 to 5 years of period generally exist in the series of climate variables(e.g.annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation as well as evaporation etc.),but with obvious locality in time domain.The variation of annual mean surface air temperature has a quasi 60-year period.The phases of the 60-year variation approximately and consistently match that of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).The oscillations of seasonal mean surface air temperature in summer and winter have the periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 60-year,respectively.These two periods of oscillations have statistically significant correlation with Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and AMO,individually.The multidecadal variations of the precipitation of the annually first flood period and annual evaporation are dominated by periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 50-year,respectively.     

近20年来中国极地大气科学研究进展

南极、北极和青藏高原是地球上的 3大气候敏感地区 ,是多个国际计划研究全球变化的关键地区。中国的南极和北极实地考察研究 ,分别始于 2 0世纪 80和 90年代 ,起步较晚 ,但近 2 0余年来有较大的进展。极地大气科学考察与研究是极地科学研究的重要组成部分。讫今为止 ,中国已组织了 2 0次南极考察和 3次北极考察 ,建立了中国南极长城站、中山站和北极黄河站等 3个常年科学考察站 ;进行了常规地面气象、Brewer大气臭氧、近地面物理、高层大气物理、冰雪和大气化学等观测 ,获得了较为系统的极地大气科学第一手资料 ;开展了有关极地与全球变化的研究 ,取得了新的进展。南极地区大气温度、臭氧和海冰的气候变化在时间和空间上都是多样的。南极地区的增暖主要发生在南极半岛地区 ,在南极大陆主体并不明显 ,近 10余年来还有降温趋势。中国南极长城站和中山站的观测资料也证实了这一点。此外 ,还揭示了南极半岛西侧和罗斯海外围的海冰变化具有“翘翘板”特征 ,由此定义的南极涛动指数可用来讨论南极海冰状况和海冰关键区的活动 ;用实地考察资料研究了极地不同下垫面的近地面物理和海 -冰 -气相互作用特征 ,给出了边界层特征参数 ;讨论了极地天气气候和大气环境特征及其对东亚大气环流和中国天气气候的影响 ;利用     

山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征

根据1971—2013年山东省14个气象站点的逐日最高和最低气温资料,计算了6个极端气温指数,采用线性倾向率、M-K突变检验、EEMD、反距离加权插值和相关分析等方法对山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征及其与西太平洋副高环流变化的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)冷暖指数变化趋势的方向和大小均表现出明显的不对称性,暖(冷)指数表现为上升(下降)趋势显著。冷暖指数表现出准2年和准5~7年的年际尺度波动,准10~15年和准20~28年的年代际尺度波动。(2)暖(冷)指数均表现为全区一致的增加(减少)趋势;除高温日数外,倾向率的空间分布总体上表现出东部和中部地区变化趋势较大,西部地区变化趋势较小。(3)极端气温事件的突变与气温突变具有较好的同步性,均在20世纪80年代末90年代初,表明极端气温指数的变化与区域性增暖有密切联系。(4)极端气温事件(除高温日数)的变化深受西太平洋副高变化的影响,西伸脊点、强度和面积指数变化的影响尤其显著。     

Variability of the Antarctic Ozone Anomaly in 2011–2018

The variability of parameters of the Antarctic ozone anomaly is studied using data of the TOMS/OMI satellite monitoring of the ozone layer, MERRA-2 reanalysis, and balloon sounding of the vertical distribution of ozone and temperature at the South Pole. The dynamic processes in the Antarctic stratosphere which define conditions for the significant ozone layer destruction are analyzed. Despite the decrease in the concentration of ozone-depleting substances, the significant ozone loss in the recent 8 years was observed in the Antarctic in 2011 and 2015.     

Continuous Ozone Depletion over Antarctica After 2000 and Its Relationship with the Polar Vortex

Observations have shown highly variable ozone depletion over the Antarctic in the 2000s, which could affect the long-term ozone trend in this region as well as the global ozone recovery. By using the total column ozone data （1979-2011）, interannual variation of the springtime Antarctic ozone tow is investigated, together with its relationship with the polar vortex evolution in the lower stratosphere. The results show that springtime Antarctic ozone depletion has continued in the 2000s, seemingly contradicting the consensus view of a global ozone recovery expected at the beginning of the 21st century. The spring Antarctic polar vortex in the lower stratosphere is much stronger in the 2000s than before, with a larger area, delayed breakup time, and greater longevity during 2000-2011. Fhrther analyses show that the recent continuation of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion could be largely attributed to the abnormal variation of the Antarctic polar vortex.     

极区大气臭氧变化对中国气候影响的数值模拟

首先利用TOMS资料分析了南北极区大气臭氧总量的季节变化特征。结果表明 ,南北极区的臭氧减少都是春季下降最快 ,然后通过数值试验得到 ,极区大气臭氧减少将造成高低层温度差值分布大致相反 ,由于臭氧减少也将使我国的大气环流形势和降水分布特征发生改变。在我国的不同区域 ,各气象要素的变化也具有不同特征。