From Planetary Boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space — How can the scales be bridged?

The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socio-economic, and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth’s safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.     

Disparate history of transgressing planetary boundaries for nutrients

The activation of nitrogen and phosphorus for food production has caused the transgression of the safe operating space of the Earth system. However, countries differ in the use of their fair share of global nutrient activation, causing a disparity that has severe implications for the environment, land degradation and food security. Both the impact on Earth system processes as well as productivity gains and losses and the consequent socio-economic impacts depend on past use. Therefore, in this study, we examined how the activation of nitrogen and phosphorus for food production in relation to countries’ fair shares has evolved globally. The first transgressions of the planetary boundaries occurred in 1970 and 1964 for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. Since then, activation has increased 160% and 200%, respectively. Further, notable differences were observed between countries, in which high-income regions such as western Europe and North America had the highest cumulative transgression and sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania had the greatest deficit relative to their fair shares. The main driver for transgression was economic growth rather than population growth or the relatively recent fertiliser subsidies. Although the use of fertilisers has decreased in areas with previous high use, past usage will slow down the effects of fertiliser reductions on ecosystem recovery and maintain a legacy of inequality. Consequently, in addition to reductions in nitrogen and phosphorus activation, recycling accumulated nutrients to regions operating below their fair shares should be explored and economically enabled in order to secure Earth system functioning while eradicating hunger.     

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development.     

Towards meaningful consumption-based planetary boundary indicators: The phosphorus exceedance footprint

The idea of measuring humanity’s footprint against planetary boundaries has attracted wide academic attention but methods to implement the theory in sustainability accounting remain underexplored. To help nations take collective actions to stay within a safe operating space, footprinting approaches need to be revised to accommodate biophysical limits. Here we develop a novel sustainability indicator, the phosphorus exceedance footprint (PEF) that measures countries’ contributions to the transgression of the planetary boundaries for phosphorus. Adopting a consumption-based perspective reveals how nations contribute to environmentally unsustainable phosphorus pollution in their trading partners. This captures country-specific transgression through supply chains in a way that complements conventional footprinting. In 2011, 27% of the world’s PEF was associated with international trade flows. Wealthier countries tend to reduce their domestic phosphorus fertiliser exceedance, thus preserving their own natural environment, while increasing their share of imported P-embodied products through trade. A pattern of highly uneven distribution of phosphorus-compromised economies is revealed, with 76% of the worldwide exceeded phosphorus embodied in exports supplied by only four countries: China (42%), Brazil (19%), India (10%) and New Zealand (54%). All countries transgress phosphorus planetary boundaries, even those that do not exceed their own territorial boundaries. Our findings highlight that mitigation strategies need to include international cooperation on increasing the efficiency of fertiliser use and reducing the demand of products that cause phosphorus exceedance.     

Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness

The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework proposes global quantitative precautionary limits for human perturbation of nine critical Earth system processes. Together they define a global safe operating space for human development. Translating the global limits to the national level increases their policy relevance. Such translation essentially divides up the global safe operating space. What is considered fair distribution is a political decision and there is no globally agreed principle that can be applied. Here, we analyse the distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness. We scale the global limits of selected PBs to resource budgets for the EU, US, China and India, using three allocation approaches from the climate change literature. Furthermore, we compare the allocated budgets to 2010 environmental footprints of the four economies, to assess their performance with respect to the selected PBs. The allocation approaches are based on (1) current shares of global environmental pressure (‘grandfathering’); (2) ‘equal per capita’ shares, and (3) ‘ability to pay’ to reduce environmental pressure. The results show that the four economies are not living within the global safe operating space. Their 2010 environmental footprints are larger than the allocated budgets for all approaches and parameterisations analysed for the PBs for climate change and biogeochemical flows, and, except for India, also for the PB for biosphere integrity. Grandfathering was found to be most favourable for the EU and US for all PBs, and ability to pay as least favourable. For climate change and biogeochemical flows, ability to pay even resulted in negative resource budgets for the two economies. In contrast, for China and India, equal per capita allocation and ability to pay were most favourable. Results were sensitive to the parameterisation. Accounting for future population growth in the equal per capita approach benefits India, with lower budgets for the EU, US and China, while accounting for future economic growth in ability to pay benefits the EU and US, with lower budgets for China and India. Our results underline the need for all four economies to act, while hinting at diverging preferences for specific allocation approaches. The methodology and results may help countries to define policy targets in line with global ambitions, such as those defined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), accounting for differences in countries’ circumstances and capacities. Further attention is required for PB-specific allocation approaches and integration of biophysical and socioeconomic considerations in the allocation.     

The role of lateral boundary conditions in simulations of mineral aerosols by a regional climate model of Southwest Asia

The importance of specifying realistic lateral boundary conditions in the regional modeling of mineral aerosols has not been examined previously. This study examines the impact of assigning values for mineral aerosol (dust) concentrations at the lateral boundaries of Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) and its aerosol model over Southwest Asia. Currently, the dust emission module of RegCM3 operates over the interior of the domain, allowing dust to be transported to the boundaries, but neglecting any dust emitted at these points or from outside the domain. To account for possible dust occurring at, or entering from the boundaries, mixing ratios of dust concentrations from a larger domain RegCM3 simulation are specified at the boundaries of a smaller domain over Southwest Asia. The lateral boundary conditions are monthly averaged concentration values (μg of dust per kg of dry air) resolved in the vertical for all four dust bin sizes within RegCM3’s aerosol model. RegCM3 simulations with the aerosol/dust model including lateral boundary conditions for dust are performed for a five year period and compared to model simulations without prescribed dust concentrations at the boundaries. Results indicate that specifying boundary conditions has a significant impact on dust loading across the entire domain over Southwest Asia. More specifically, a nearly 30% increase in aerosol optical depth occurs during the summer months from specifying realistic dust boundary conditions, bringing model results closer to observations such as MISR. In addition, smaller dust particles at the boundaries have a more important impact than large particles in affecting the dust loading within the interior of this domain. Moreover, increases in aerosol optical depth and dust concentrations within the interior domain are not entirely caused by inflow from the boundaries; results indicate that an increase in the gradient of concentration at the boundaries causes an increase of diffusion from the boundaries. Lastly, experiments performed using a climatology of dust concentrations yield similar results to those using actual monthly values. Therefore, using a climatology of dust mixing ratios is sufficient in implementing lateral boundary conditions for mineral aerosols. In short, this work concludes that realistic specification of lateral boundary conditions for mineral aerosols can be important in modeling the dust loading over arid regional climates such as Southwest Asia.     

Snowline instability in a general circulation model: application to Carboniferous glaciation

For over twenty years it has been known that energy balance models (EBMs) with snow-albedo feedback are characterized by unstable behavior in some areas of parameter space. This behavior leads to rapid changes in snow area due to small changes in forcing, and has been termed the small ice cap instability (SICI). It has never been clarified whether this behaviour reflects a real feature of the climate system or a limitation in EBMs. In this study we demonstrate that evidence for similar unstable behavior can also be found in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), using a realistic set of boundary conditions for the Carboniferous (300 Ma), one of the most extensive periods of glaciation in Earth history. When solar luminosity is sequentially lowered to near values appropriate for the Carboniferous, there is a discontinuous increase in summer snow area. The instability occurs in approximately the same area of parameter space as one previously found in an EBM. Analysis of selected fields indicates that the circulation is primarily affected in the area of snow increase; far-field effects are minimal. There is good agreement between model-generated summer snowcover and one reconstruction of Carboniferous ice cover. Although more work is required on this topic, our results provide increased support for the possibility that the snowline instability represents a real feature of the climate system, and that it may help explain some cases of glacial inception and abrupt transitions in Earth history.     

Combined influence of atmospheric physics and soil hydrology on the simulated meteorology at the SIRTA atmospheric observatory

The identification of the land-atmosphere interactions as one of the key source of uncertainty in climate models calls for process-level assessment of the coupled atmosphere/land continental surface system in numerical climate models. To this end, we propose a novel approach and apply it to evaluate the standard and new parametrizations of boundary layer/convection/clouds in the Earth System Model (ESM) of Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), which differentiate the IPSL-CM5A and IPSL-CM5B climate change simulations produced for the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 exercise. Two different land surface hydrology parametrizations are also considered to analyze different land-atmosphere interactions. Ten-year simulations of the coupled land surface/atmospheric ESM modules are confronted to observations collected at the SIRTA (Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédection Atmosphérique), located near Paris (France). For sounder evaluation of the physical parametrizations, the grid of the model is stretched and refined in the vicinity of the SIRTA, and the large scale component of the modeled circulation is adjusted toward ERA-Interim reanalysis outside of the zoomed area. This allows us to detect situations where the parametrizations do not perform satisfactorily and can affect climate simulations at the regional/continental scale, including in full 3D coupled runs. In particular, we show how the biases in near surface state variables simulated by the ESM are explained by (1) the sensible/latent heat partitionning at the surface, (2) the low level cloudiness and its radiative impact at the surface, (3) the parametrization of turbulent transport in the surface layer, (4) the complex interplay between these processes. We also show how the new set of parametrizations can improve these biases.     

National indicators for observing ecosystem service change

Earth’s life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world’s governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems.     

Constraint Inversion Algorithm of lidar equation for deriving aerosol optical property

A key question of the backward integration algorithm to lidar equation is how to determine the far-end boundary value. This paper develops a Constraint Inversion Algorithm (CIA) for deriving the value and then the aerosol extinction profile from lidar signals, which uses the ground-level horizontal lidar signals as the constraint information. The smaller the wavelength is, the more sensitive to the variation of aerosol ex-tinction to backscatter ratio solved by CIA. According to the property an algorithm is further proposed to simultaneously retrieve the aerosol extinction profile, the size distribution and the imaginary part of its re-flective index from the multi-wavelength lidar observations. CIA is tested in the inversion simulations with satisfactory result.     

Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints

Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), using loss in Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as an indicator of biodiversity loss. For each SSP, we retrieved socio-economic and land use projections to 2100 from the IMAGE-MAGNET model and calculated associated biodiversity footprints for seven aggregated world regions. We then compared these with the functional diversity component of the biosphere integrity planetary boundary. Our results indicate that the global land-based biodiversity impact stays below the boundary (tentatively set at 90% of original BII) in all scenario-year combinations. Contrastingly, the per capita boundary is transgressed in one, four and five out of the seven world regions in 2100 for SSP1 (‘sustainability’), SSP2 (‘middle of the road’) and SSP3 (‘regional rivalry’), respectively. These results indicate a strong difference in the biodiversity impact of final consumption between the regions and between SSPs. Even in the ‘sustainability’ scenario, the per capita biodiversity footprint of consumption in North America needs to be reduced to meet the per capita boundary. Thus, policy-making to safeguard the environment would benefit from adopting region-specific strategies: focusing on realizing agricultural efficiency gains in regions with unexploited potential, while focusing on promoting dietary changes towards less animal-based consumption in regions with limited potential for additional efficiency gains.     

Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene

The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results.     

Vulnerability of water supply from the Oregon Cascades to changing climate: Linking science to users and policy

Despite improvements in understanding biophysical response to climate change, a better understanding of how such changes will affect societies is still needed. We evaluated effects of climate change on the coupled human-environmental system of the McKenzie River watershed in the Oregon Cascades in order to assess its vulnerability. Published empirical and modeling results indicate that climate change will alter both the timing and quantity of streamflow, but understanding how these changes will impact different water users is essential to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. In order to better understand the vulnerability of four water use sectors to changing streamflow, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with representatives of each sector, in which we presented projected changes in streamflow and asked respondents to assess how changing water availability would impact their activities. In the McKenzie River watershed, there are distinct spatial and temporal patterns associated with sensitivity of water resources to climate change. This research illustrates that the implications of changing streamflow vary substantially among different water users, with vulnerabilities being determined in part by the spatial scale and timing of water use and the flexibility of those uses in time and space. Furthermore, institutions within some sectors were found to be better positioned to effectively respond to changes in water resources associated with climate change, while others have substantial barriers to the flexibility needed to manage for new conditions. A clearer understanding of these opportunities and constraints across water use sectors can provide a basis for improving response capacity and potentially reducing vulnerability to changing water resources in the region.     

利用一维资料重现n维系统吸引子结构的试验

以Ｒｏｓｓｌｅｒ系统和Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统为例，研究了利用单变量时间序列来重现ｎ维动力吸引子的枯朴结构，研究结果表明，在一维时间序列重建的相空间里，存在着若干个主矢量，这些主矢量可以从某一侧面揭示出系统吸收子的枯扑系统。     

Development of the space observation system and geophysical monitoring system in Roshydromet

Two important areas of Roshydromet activity are considered: the development of the space observation system and the creation of the system of ground-, air-, and space-based geophysical monitoring. The investigation, monitoring, and forecasting of the state of the Earth, its climate, severe weather events, catastrophes, and emergencies requires the extended usage of space observation methods. The current state is considered of hydrometeorological space system included in the Roshydromet space observation system. The space- and ground-based segments of this system are briefly described. The ground segment is based on the national space monitoring system which was developed in 1992—2010 and is geographically distributed. The works are reviewed on the formation of the Roshydromet geophysical monitoring system using ground-based, airborne, and space-based observations.     

The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems from inter- and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by human activities: A review of current systems and practices

Invasions by non-indigenous species are amongst the greatest threats to global biodiversity, causing substantial disruption to, and sometimes local extinction of, individual species and community assemblages which, in turn, can affect ecosystem structure and function. The terrestrial environment of Antarctica consists of many isolated ‘islands’ of ice-free ground. Prolonged isolation makes Antarctic biodiversity vulnerable to human-mediated impacts, in particular (1) the introduction of non-indigenous species from outside Antarctica, and (2) the redistribution of indigenous Antarctic species between biologically distinct areas within the continent. The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the primary instrument through which environmental management is addressed within the Antarctic Treaty System, says little about unintentional introduction of non-indigenous species to Antarctica, and nothing specifically about human-mediated transfer of native species from one area to another. We review the effectiveness of the Antarctic protected area system, the primary means through which area-specific environmental protection is achieved under the Antarctic Treaty System. This reveals that the measures described in most Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) Management Plans, by themselves, may not be sufficient to (1) minimise the possibility of introduction of plants, animals and microbes not native to the protected area or (2) adequately protect the many unusual assemblages of species, type localities or only known habitats of certain species found in Antarctica. We discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a more effective system, including the implementation of appropriate biosecurity measures across different spatial scales and applied to different biological groups.     

Mini-acoustic sounding—A powerful tool for ABL applications: Recent advances and applications of acoustic mini-sodars

Atmospheric acoustic mini-sodar design characteristics, operating conditions and applications are described. Emphasis is given to the recent high space and time resolution applications in the field of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), such as wind energy, internal boundary layer, microclimate studies, etc.Special mention is made on modern data processing and layer classification techniques, which in association with the high space resolution characteristics of the instrument make a powerful tool for detailed ABL research.     

利用资料重现厄尔尼诺浑沌特征的相空间投影技术

首次提出了利用一维时间序列重现高维浑沌系统演化特征的相空间投影技术，并用Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统的积分序列加以验证。在对东太平洋区域５７个格点月平均海温序列作同样的分析后，发现与之对应的厄尔尼诺现象有着明显的双稳态沉沌特征，该结果与Ｖａｌｌｉｓ通过一个简单海气相互作用模式模拟的结果很接近。     

Mediating science and action across multiple boundaries in the Coral Triangle

This study seeks to refine literature on boundary work by exploring how stakeholders in the Coral Triangle Initiative, an international agreement between six countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, are forging relations across various domains and governance levels, and the outcomes of this process. We do this in an effort to increase its relevance to multi-level environmental governance, and understand the challenges that face such governance. We are also interested in the pathways leading to policy outcomes that are perceived as salient, credible, and legitimate to all stakeholders involved in governance. The study shows that boundary work is challenged by resource inequalities resulting in limited knowledge diversity, blurred boundaries between science and politics, and misaligned scales. We conclude that boundary work has an important temporal dimension that has often been neglected, and that literature on boundary work must provide a conceptual guide to understand tradeoffs arising as a result of stakeholders’ various strategies to engage in boundary work.