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1.
《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):253-263
A high-volume cascade impactor, equipped with a PM10 inlet, was used to collect size-segregated aerosol samples during the summer of 2004 at two Portuguese locations: a coastal-rural area (Moitinhos) and an urban area (Oporto). Concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM), total carbon (TC), organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) were determined for the following particle size ranges: < 0.49, 0.49–0.95, 0.95–3.0, and 3.0–10 µm. The total PM mass concentrations at the urban and coastal-rural sites ranged from 22.8 to 79.6 μg m 3 and 19.9 to 28.2 μg m 3, respectively, and more than 56% of the total aerosol mass was found in the fractions below 3.0 μm. At both locations the highest concentrations of OC and EC were found in the submicrometer size range. The regional variability for the OC and EC concentrations, with the highest concentrations being found in the urban area, was related to the contribution of local primary sources (mostly traffic emissions). It was also verified an enrichment of the small size particles in WSOC, representing on average 37.3(± 12.4)% and 59.7(± 18.0)% of OC in the very fine aerosol at the coastal-rural and urban areas, respectively. The amount of secondary OC calculated by the minimum OC/EC ratio method indicates that secondary organic aerosol formation was important throughout the study at both sites. The obtained results suggest that long-range transport and favourable summer conditions for photochemical oxidation are key factors determining secondary OC formation in the coastal-rural and urban areas. The ultraviolet absorption properties of the chromophoric constituents of the WSOC fractions were also different among the different particle size ranges and also between the two sampling locations, thus suggesting the strong impact of the diverse emission sources into the composition of the size-segregated organic aerosol.  相似文献   

2.
Concentrations and flux densities of methane were determined during a Lagrangian study of an advective filament in the permanent upwelling region off western Mauritania. Newly upwelled waters were dominated by the presence of North Atlantic Central Water and surface CH4 concentrations of 2.2 ± 0.3 nmol L−1 were largely in equilibrium with atmospheric values, with surface saturations of 101.7 ± 14%. As the upwelling filament aged and was advected offshore, CH4 enriched South Atlantic Central Water from intermediate depths of 100–350 m was entrained into the surface mixed layer of the filament following intense mixing associated with the shelf break. Surface saturations increased to 198.9 ± 15% and flux densities increased from a mean value over the shelf of 2.0 ± 1.1 μmol m−2 d−1 to a maximum of 22.6 μmol m−2 d−1. Annual CH4 emissions for this persistent filament were estimated at 0.77 ± 0.64 Gg which equates to a maximum of 0.35% of the global oceanic budget. This raises the known outgassing intensity of this area and highlights the importance of advecting filaments from upwelling waters as efficient vehicles for air-sea exchange.  相似文献   

3.
Aerosol retrieval algorithms for the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) have been developed to estimate aerosol and microphysical properties of the atmosphere, which help to address aerosol climatic issues at global scale. However, higher spatial resolution aerosol products for urban areas have not been well-researched mainly due to the difficulty of differentiating aerosols from bright surfaces in urban areas. Here, an aerosol retrieval algorithm using the MODIS 500-m resolution bands is described, to retrieve aerosol properties over Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region. The rationale of our technique is to first estimate the aerosol reflectances by decomposing the top-of-atmosphere reflectances from surface reflectances and Rayleigh path reflectances. For the determination of surface reflectances, a Minimum Reflectance Technique (MRT) is used, and MRT images are computed for different seasons. For conversion of aerosol reflectance to aerosol optical thickness (AOT), comprehensive Look Up Tables specific to the local region are constructed, which consider aerosol properties and sun-viewing geometry in the radiative transfer calculations. Four local aerosol types, namely coastal urban, polluted urban, dust, and heavy pollution, were derived using cluster analysis on 3 years of AERONET measurements in Hong Kong. The resulting 500 m AOT images were found to be highly correlated with ground measurements from the AERONET (r2 = 0.767) and Microtops II sunphotometers (r2 = 0.760) in Hong Kong. This study further demonstrates the application of the fine resolution AOT images for monitoring inter-urban and intra-urban aerosol distributions and the influence of trans-boundary flows. These applications include characterization of spatial patterns of AOT within the city, and detection of regional biomass burning sources.  相似文献   

4.
《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):195-202
We present results of direct aerosol radiative forcing over a French Mediterranean coastal zone based on one year of continuous observations of aerosol optical properties during 2005–2006. Monthly-mean aerosol optical depth at 440 nm ranged between 0.1 and 0.34, with high Angstrom coefficient (α > 1.2). The single scattering albedo (at 525 nm) estimated at the surface ranged between 0.7 and 0.8, indicating significant absorption. The presence of aerosols over the Mediterranean zone during summer decreases the shortwave radiation reaching the surface by as much as 26 ± 3.9 W m 2, and increases the top of the atmosphere reflected radiation by as much as 5.2 ± 1.0 W m 2. The shortwave atmospheric absorption translates to an atmospheric heating of 2.5 to 4.6 K day 1. Concerted efforts are needed for investigating the possible impact of the increase in heating rate on the maintenance of heat-waves frequently occurring over this coastal region during summer time.  相似文献   

5.
We analyzed a 20-year time series (January 1st, 1993 through December 31st, 2012) of Loop Current (LC) surface area derived from satellite altimetry in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to estimate kinematical metrics of this potent flow. On average the LC intrudes to its maximum northward position about 216 ± 126 days after the previous eddy separation; and ∼30 ± 31 days later sheds a large anticyclonic eddy. When the northern extent of the LC intrusion following the previous eddy separation is greater than 27°N, the current retreats very quickly until it sheds another eddy with the entire separation process occurring on the order of 30 days. To first order the change in areal extent of the LC during intrusion into the Gulf occurs at an average rate of 225 km2 day−1, which corresponds to an intrusion velocity of 1.7 cm s−1 of the LC front, and adds Caribbean water to the Gulf at a rate of 2.6 ± 0.7 Sv.  相似文献   

6.
The chemical mass balance model was applied to atmospheric Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Istanbul, Turkey. A total of 326 airborne samples were collected and analyzed for 16 PAHs and Total Suspended Particles (TSP) in the September 2006–December 2007 period at three monitoring stations: Yildiz, DMO (urban sites) and Kilyos (rural site). The total average PAH concentrations were 100.66 ± 61.26, 84.63 ± 46.66 and 25.12 ± 13.34 ng m?3 and the TSP concentrations were 101.16 ± 53.22, 152.31 ± 99.12, 49.84 ± 18.58 μg m?3 for Yildiz, DMO and Kilyos stations respectively. At all the sites, the lighter compounds were the most abundant, notably Nap, AcPy and PA. The average correlation values between TSP and total heavier PAH were greater than 0.5 for Yildiz and DMO stations. The patterns of PAH and TSP concentrations showed spatial and temporal variations. PAH concentrations were evaluated for the PAH contribution from four sources (diesel engines, gasoline engines, natural gas combustion, and coal + wood burning). Vehicle emissions appear to be the major source with contributions of 61.2%, 63.3% and 54.1% for Yildiz, DMO and Kilyos stations respectively. Seasonal and yearly variations had different trends for all sites.  相似文献   

7.
A mooring equipped with 200 high-resolution temperature sensors between 6 and 404 m above the bottom was moored in 1890 m water depth above a steep, about 10° slope of Mount Josephine, NE-Atlantic. The sensors have a precision of less than 0.5 mK. They are synchronized via induction every 4 h so that the 400 m range is measured to within 0.02 s, every 1 s. Thin cables and elliptical buoyancy assured vertical mooring motions to be smaller than 0.1 m under maximum 0.2 m s−1 current speeds. The local bottom slope is supercritical for semidiurnal internal tides by a factor of two. Exploring a one-month record in detail, the observations show: 1/semidiurnal tidal dominance in variations of dissipation rate ε, eddy diffusivity Kz and temperature, but no significant correlation between the records of ε and total kinetic energy, 2/a variation with time over four orders of magnitude of 100-m vertically averaged ε, 3/a local minimum in density stratification between 50 and 100 m above the bottom, 4/a gradual decrease in daily or longer averaged ε and Kz by one order of magnitude over a vertical distance of 250 m, upwards from 150 m above the bottom, 5/monthly mean values of <[ε]> = 2 ± 0.5 × 10−7 m2 s−3, <[Kz]> = 8 ± 3 × 10−3 m2 s−1 averaged over the lower 150 m above the bottom.  相似文献   

8.
In this study, total suspended particles (TSP) and size-segregated atmospheric aerosol samples were measured on Qianliyan Island in the Yellow Sea in spring (April–May), summer (July–August) and fall (October–November) of 2006 and in water (January–February) of 2007. The mass concentration of the TSP varied from 75.6 to 132.0 μg/m3. The average concentration were 9.37 ± 7.56 μg/m3 and 5.32 ± 4.25 μg/m3 for nitrate and ammonium in the TSP, respectively. TSP concentration showed a significant correlation with those of nitrate (n = 27, r = 0.73) and ammonium (n = 27, r = 0.60). The mass-size distribution of atmospheric particles exhibited two modes with an accumulation mode at 0.43–1.1 μm and a coarse mode at 3.3–4.7 μm throughout the sampling months. A bi-modal size distribution of nitrate in concentration occurred in the April–May, October–November and January–February, but a uni-modal size distribution occurred in the August. The uni-modal size distribution of ammonium at 0.43–0.65 μm was observed throughout the sampling months. The average of inorganic nitrogen in mass concentration accounted for 4.0% of the total mass of aerosol particles while ammonium-N was the dominant fraction of TIN (Total Inorganic Nitrogen), contributing to 62–71% of the TIN.  相似文献   

9.
In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s−1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.  相似文献   

10.
《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):243-252
Aerosol size distributions were measured with Micro Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI) cascade impactors at the rural Angiola and urban Fresno Supersites in California's San Joaquin Valley during the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) winter campaign from December 15, 2000 to February 3, 2001. PM2.5 filter samples were collected concurrently at both sites with Sequential Filter Samplers (SFS). MOUDI nitrate (NO3) concentrations reached 66 μg/m3 on January 6, 2001 during the 1000–1600 PST (GMT-8) period. Pair-wise comparisons between PM2.5 MOUDI and SFS concentrations revealed high correlations at the Angiola site (r > 0.93) but more variability (r < 0.85) at the Fresno site for NO3, sulfate (SO4=), and ammonium (NH4+). Correlations were higher at Fresno (r > 0.87) than at Angiola (r < 0.7) for organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and total carbon (TC). NO3 and SO4= size distributions in Fresno were multi-modal and wider than the uni-modal distributions observed at Angiola. Geometric mean diameters (GMD) were smaller for OC and EC than for NO3 and SO4= at both sites. OC and EC were more concentrated on the lowest MOUDI stage (0.056 µm) at Angiola than at Fresno. The NO3 GMD increased from 0.97 to 1.02 µm as the NO3 concentration at Angiola increased from 43 to 66 µg m 3 during a PM2.5 episode from January 4–7, 2001. There was a direct relationship between GMD and NO3 and SO4= concentrations at Angiola but no such relationships for OC or EC. This demonstrates that secondary aerosol formation increases both concentration and particle size for the rural California environment.  相似文献   

11.
The character of turbulent overturns in a weakly stratified deep-sea is investigated in some detail using 144 high-resolution temperature sensors at 0.7 m intervals, starting 5 m above the bottom. A 9-day, 1 Hz sampled record from the 912 m depth flat-bottom (<0.5% bottom-slope) mooring site in the central-north Alboran Sea (W-Mediterranean) demonstrates an overall conservative temperature range of only 0.05 °C, a typical mean buoyancy period as large as 3 h and a 1 Hz-profile-vertically-averaged turbulence dissipation rate maximum of only 10−8 m2 s−3. Nonetheless, this ‘boundary layer’ varies in height between <6 and >104 m above the bottom and is thus not homogeneous throughout; the temperature variations are seldom quiescent and are generally turbulent in appearance, well exceeding noise levels. The turbulence character is associated with small-scale internal waves; examples are found of both shear- and convection-driven turbulence; particular association, although not phase-locked, is found between turbulence variations and tidal rather than with inertial motions; the mean buoyancy frequency of a few times the inertial frequency implies the importance of ‘slantwise convection’ in the direction of the earth rotational vector rather than in the direction of gravity. Such convection is observed both in near-homogeneous and weakly stratified form.  相似文献   

12.
The results of the first large scale chemical characterization of PM10 and PM2.5 at three different sites in the urban city of Beirut, Lebanon, are presented. Between May 2009 and April 2010 a total of 304 PM10 and PM2.5 samples were collected by sampling every sixth day at three different sites in Beirut. Observed mass concentrations varied between 19.7 and 521.2 μg m? 3 for PM10 and between 8.4 and 72.2 μg m? 3 for PM2.5, respectively. Inorganic concentrations accounted for 29.7–35.6 μg m? 3 and 46.0–53.5 μg m? 3 of the total mass of PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. Intra-city temporal and spatial variations were assessed based on the study of three factors: correlation coefficients (R) for PM and chemical components, coefficient of divergence (CODs), and source apportionment using positive matrix factorization (PMF). Based on R and COD of PM concentrations, the three sites appear homogeneous. However, when individual elements were compared, heterogeneity among sites was found. This latter was attributed to the variability in the percent contribution of biogenic and local anthropogenic source factors such as traffic related sources and dust resuspension. Other factors included the proximity to the Mediterranean sea, the population density and the topographical structure of the city. Hence, despite its small size (20.8 km2), one PM monitoring site does not reflect an accurate PM level in Beirut.  相似文献   

13.
Identifying the sources of reactive nitrogen (N) and quantifying their contributions to groundwater nitrate concentrations are critical to understanding the dynamics of groundwater nitrate contamination. Here we assessed groundwater nitrate contamination in China using literature analysis and N balance calculation in coupled human and natural systems. The source appointment via N balance was well validated by field data via literature analysis. Nitrate was detected in 96% of groundwater samples based on a common detection threshold of 0.2 mg N L?1, and 28% of groundwater samples exceeded WHO's maximum contaminant level (10 mg N L?1). Groundwater nitrate concentrations were the highest beneath industrial land (median: 34.6 mg N L?1), followed by urban land (10.2 mg N L?1), cropland (4.8 mg N L?1), and rural human settlement (4.0 mg N L?1), with the lowest found beneath natural land (0.8 mg N L?1). During the period 1980–2008, total reactive N leakage to groundwater increased about 1.5 times, from 2.0 to 5.0 Tg N year?1, in China. Despite that the contribution of cropland to the total amount of reactive N leakage to groundwater was reduced from 50 to 40% during the past three decades, cropland still was the single largest source, while the contribution from landfill rapidly increased from 10 to 34%. High reactive N leakage mainly occurred in relatively developed agricultural or urbanized regions with a large population. The amount of reactive N leakage to groundwater was mainly driven by anthropogenic factors (population, gross domestic product, urbanization rate and land use type). We constructed a high resolution map of reactive N source appointment and this could be the basis for future modeling of groundwater nitrate dynamics and for policy development on mitigation of groundwater contamination.  相似文献   

14.
Urban growth has received little attention in large-scale land change assessments, because the area of built-up land is relatively small on a global scale. However, this area is increasing rapidly, due to population growth, rural-to-urban migration, and wealth increases in many parts of the world. Moreover, the impacts of urban growth on other land uses further amplified by associated land uses, such as recreation and urban green. In this study we analyze urban land take in cropland areas for the years 2000 and 2040, using a land systems approach. As of the year 2000, 213 Mha can be classified as urban land, which is 2.06% of the earth’s surface. However, this urban land is more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production. In the year 2040, these figures increase to 621 Mha, or 4.72% of all the earth’s surface. The increase in urban land between 2000 and 2040 is also more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production, thus further limiting our food production capacity. The share of urban land take in cropland areas is highest in Europe, the Middle-East and Northern Africa, and China, while it is relatively low in Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2040, urban growth caused the displacement of almost 65 Mton of crop production, which could yield an expansion of up to 35 Mha of new cropland. Land-use planning can influence both the location and the form of urbanization, and thus appears as an important measure to minimize further losses in crop production.  相似文献   

15.
The variability of sea surface Total Alkalinity (TA) and sea surface Total Inorganic Carbon (CT) is examined using all available data in the western tropical Atlantic (WTA: 20°S-20°N, 60°W-20°W). Lowest TA and CT are observed for the region located between 0°N-15°N/60°W-50°W and are explained by the influence of the Amazon plume during boreal summer. In the southern part of the area, 20°S-10°S/40°W-60°W, the highest values of TA and CT are linked to the CO2–rich waters due to the equatorial upwelling, which are transported by the South Equatorial Current (SEC) flowing from the African coast to the Brazilian shore. An increase of CT of 0.9 ± 0.3 μmol kg−1yr−1 has been observed in the SEC region and is consistent with previous published estimates. A revised CT-Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) relationship is proposed for the WTA to take into account the variability of CT at low salinities. This new CT-SSS relationship together with a published TA-SSS relationship allow to calculate pCO2 values that compare well with observed pCO2 (R2 = 0.90).  相似文献   

16.
The water that is used in the production process of a commodity is called the ‘virtual water’ contained in the commodity. International trade of commodities brings along international flows of virtual water. The objective of this paper is to quantify the volumes of virtual water flows between nations in the period 1995–1999 insofar related to international crop trade and to analyse national virtual water balances in relation to national water needs and water availability. The basic approach is to multiply international crop trade flows (ton/yr) by their associated virtual water content (m3 ton−1). The calculations show that the global volume of crop-related international virtual water flows between nations was 695 Gm3 yr−1 in average over the period 1995–1999. For comparison: the total water use by crops in the world has been estimated at 5400 Gm3 yr−1. This means that 13% of the water used for crop production in the world is not used for domestic consumption but for export (in virtual form). This is a conservative estimate because only a limited number of crops––although the most important ones––have been taken into account and because crop products (such as cotton clothes) have been excluded from the study. The countries with the largest net virtual water export are United States, Canada, Thailand, Argentina and India. The largest net import appears to be in Japan, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, China and Indonesia.  相似文献   

17.
The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) fast retrieval method retrieves rain rates and classifies precipitation types for applications in nowcasting and weather monitoring. The retrieval scheme consists of two fast algorithms, over land and over ocean, that use the water vapour absorption lines at 183.31 GHz corresponding to the channels 3 (183.31 ± 1 GHz), 4 (183.31 ± 3 GHz) and 5 (183.31 ± 7 GHz) of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and Metop-A satellite series, respectively.The method retrieves rain rates by exploiting the extinction of radiation due to rain drops following four subsequent steps. After ingesting the satellite data stream, the window channels at 89 and 150 GHz are used to compute scattering-based thresholds and the 183-WSLW module for rainfall area discrimination and precipitation type classification as stratiform or convective on the basis of the thresholds calculated for land/mixed and sea surfaces. The thresholds are based on the brightness temperature difference Δwin = TB89 ? TB150 and are different over land (L) and over sea (S): cloud droplets and water vapour (Δwin < 3 K L; Δwin < 0 K S), stratiform rain (3 K < Δwin < 10 K L; 0 K < Δwin < 10 K S), and convective rain (Δwin > 10 K L and S). The thresholds, initially empirically derived from observations, are corroborated by the simulations of the RTTOV radiative transfer model applied to 20000 ECMWF atmospheric profiles at midlatitudes and the use of data from the Nimrod radar network. A snow cover mask and a digital elevation model are used to eliminate false rain area attribution, especially over elevated terrain. A probability of detection logistic function is also applied in the transition region from no-rain to rain adjacent to the clouds to ensure continuity of the rainfall field. Finally, the last step is dedicated to the rain rate retrieval with the modules 183-WSLS (stratiform) and 183WSLC (convective), and the module 183-WSL for total rainfall intensity derivation.A comparison with rainfall retrievals from the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) TRMM 2A12 algorithm is done with good results on a stratiform and hurricane case studies. A comparison is also conducted with the MSG-based Precipitation Index (PI) and the Scattering Index (SI) for a convective-stratiform event showing good agreement with the 183-WSLC retrieval. A complete validation of the product is the subject of Part II of the paper.  相似文献   

18.
Cloud/fog samples were collected during spring of 2007 in the highly polluted North China Plain in order to examine the impact of pollution and dust particles on cloud water chemistry. The volume weighted mean pH of cloud water was 3.68. The cloud acidity was shown to be associated with air mass origins. Cloud water with its air mass trajectories originating from the southern part of China was more acidic than those from northern China. Anthropogenic source and dust had obvious impact on cloud water composition as indicated by the very high mean concentrations of SO42? (1331.65 μeq L? 1), NO3? (772.44 μeq L? 1), NH4+ (1375.92 μeq L? 1) and Ca2+ (625.81 μeq L? 1) in the observation periods. During sandstorm days, cloud pH values were relatively high, and the concentrations of all the ions in cloud water reached unusual high levels. Significant decreases in the mass concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were observed during cloud events. The average scavenging ratio for PM2.5 and PM10 was 52.0% and 55.7%, respectively. Among the soluble ions in fine particles, NO3?, K+ and NH4+ tend to be more easily scavenged than Ca2+ and Na+.  相似文献   

19.
Hourly data of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) at 8°N–38°W were analyzed from 2008 to 2011. Analyses of wind, rainfall, temperature and salinity data from the buoy indicated two distinct seasonal periods. The first period (January to July) had a mean fCO2 of 378.9 μatm (n = 7512). During this period, in which the study area was characterized by small salinity variations, the fCO2 is mainly controlled by sea surface temperature (SST) variations (fCO2 = 24.4*SST-281.1, r2 = 0.8). During the second period (August–December), the mean fCO2 was 421.9 μatm (n = 11571). During these months, the region is subjected to the simultaneous action of (a) rainfall induced by the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); (b) arrival of fresh water from the Amazon River plume that is transported to the east by the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) after the retroflection of the North Brazil Current (NBC); and (c) vertical input of CO2-rich water due to Ekman pumping. The data indicated the existence of high-frequency fCO2 variability (periods less than 24 h). This high variability is related to two different mechanisms. In the first mechanism, fCO2 increases are associated to rapid increases in SST and are attributed to the diurnal cycle of solar radiation. In addition, low wind speed contributes to SST rising by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the second mechanism, fCO2 decreases are associated to SSS decreases caused by heavy rainfall.  相似文献   

20.
Scientists have argued that no more than 275 GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746 GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2 °C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity. This paper analyzes the potential emissions of CO2 and methane from the proved reserves as reported by the world's largest producers of oil, natural gas, and coal. We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440 GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275 GtC carbon budget. Of the 440 GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44 GtC (16% of the remaining carbon budget, hereafter RCB), whereas the 28 state-owned entities possess reserves of 210 GtC (76% of the RCB). This analysis suggests that what may be needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system differs when one considers the state-owned entities vs. the investor-owned entities. For the former, there is a profound risk involved simply in the prospect of their extracting their proved reserves. For the latter, the risk arises not so much from their relatively small proved reserves, but from their on-going exploration and development of new fossil fuel resources. For preventing DAI overall, effective action must include the state-owned companies, the investor-owned companies, and governments. However, given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs.  相似文献   

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