千岛湖风景区生态风险及风险管理对策研究

文章以千岛湖风景区为研究对象,从区域现状出发,对区域内自然生态、社会经济及污染源现状调查结果进行综合归纳,总结了千岛湖区域的生态风险,提出该区域的生态风险管理目标,最后从农林、城镇、工业、旅游、外来生物、灾害、流域、生态工程技术和综合管理9个方面系统地提出了区域生态风险管理对策。     

Water protection zoning of the Baikal natural territory: Conflicts of laws,landscape-hydrological approach

We examine the complicated situation with demarcation of the boundary of the Lake Baikal water protection zone. It was found that although the principles of ecological zoning, a unique legal instrument regulating the development of a territory with a special nature conservation status and the preservation of the Lake Baikal ecosystem, have been developed and implemented, it was not until 2015 that the boundaries of the water protection zone of Lake Baikal itself were defined. The boundaries of the water protection zone along the boundary of the central ecological zone of Lake Baikal as established by a Decree of the RF Government combined severe restrictions on water use of the two zones across the territory with the area more than 50 thou km2. It is concluded that there is a need to reconsider the decision and develop the project of the water protection zone of Lake Baikal substantiated from the landscape-hydrological perspective. It is demonstrated that the substantiation of the size of the water protection zone must rely on the hydrological runoff-forming and runoffregulating functions of landscapes that determine the formation and transformation of the local runoff between the watershed and the draining water body. The approach to implementing the water protection zoning project on the landscape-hydrological principles is developed to provide maximum protection of Lake Baikal against the input of pollutants with the subsurface and surface runoff from the neighboring coastal territories due to the natural processes of self-purification in landscapes and soil-ground layers. The main criterion is defined for the width of the water protection zone: all pollutants beyond the imposed limits of the zone are drained by the inflows from the lake and do not enter directly Lake Baikal; also, the protection of subsurface waters from the vertical penetration of pollutants is taken into account. For the settlements situation on the shores of Lake Baikal, it is proposed to delineate the boundary of the lake’s water protection zone having regard to the existing and future plans of development and engineering-technological infrastructuring of the territory.     

银川市宝湖国家级城市湿地公园规划设计

探讨了宁夏银川市宝湖国家级城市湿地公园的规划设计。从对宝湖现状及其周边环境的分析出发,以再现自然风貌,彰显地方特色为理念,将宝湖规划设计为集休闲健身、游玩观赏、湿地科普知识宣传为一体的城市湿地公园,并对宝湖的水资源保护和管理机制进行了分析,以期为同类湿地公园的规划设计提供经验借鉴。     

阿拉善腾格里沙漠地质公园旅游资源及其综合评价

阿拉善沙漠地质公园腾格里园区以分布广泛的沙漠湖泊、戈壁奇石、风蚀地貌为主体景观特色,结合景区内美丽富饶的自然景观资源,挖掘绚丽多彩的民族文化和历史文化遗存,可以带动当地旅游业的发展,进而促进当地经济的发展。结合前人的分类体系对其旅游资源进行分类,并进行了旅游资源综合定量评价,分析了评价结果,提出了腾格里园区旅游深度开发设想。其结果是：腾格里园区旅游开发应以保护地质遗迹景观资源及其他自然、人文景观为旅游开发目标;以开发沙漠探险、观光游览、休闲度假为主,再结合吉兰泰盐湖工业游、敖伦布拉格峡谷群科普游、考古游、民族风情游、宗教旅游等,充分利用其良好的区位优势和交通条件,打造出腾格里园区独具特色的旅游资源品牌。     

重点旅游地区自然灾害风险管理框架研究

首先介绍近年来国内外旅游目的地面临的各类安全问题,阐述了旅游地自然灾害风险管理的相关概念以及和应急管理的区别,探讨建立重点旅游地区自然灾害风险管理框架的方法和内容。通过自然灾害分析、区域脆弱性分析和旅游地的暴露分析,就未来固定时间段内该目的地可能造成的潜在损失进行计算。为了将潜在损失控制在能够接受的范围内,由当地政府协同旅游管理部门与利益相关各方共同探讨降低灾害风险的工程手段和技术手段,并且核算为此所需要的投入,在潜在损失和投入之中进行决策,提出该旅游地区的区域发展目标和政策。该风险管理框架是从游客、当地政府、旅游经营企业、当地居民四方利益相关者之间合作参与旅游风险管理出发,提出四位一体的旅游地区自然灾害风险管理框架,希望为我国重点旅游地区确立自然灾害风险管理范式和旅游可持续发展提供理论依据。     

"美丽冰冻圈"融入区域发展的途径与模式

在探讨“美丽冰冻圈”内涵的基础上,从自然属性与社会经济两个层面、致利与致害两条线,分析了“美丽冰冻圈”与区域可持续发展的关系,“美丽冰冻圈”、区域社会经济发展、人类福祉构成冰冻圈—人类社会经济复合命运共同体。基于中国冰冻圈要素及其变化影响的区域差异性,选取祁连山—河西地区、青藏高原三江源地区、横断山大香格里拉地区,分别代表冰冻圈水资源影响区、冰冻圈灾害影响区、冰冻圈旅游经济区,围绕冰冻圈水资源服务与绿洲经济、雪灾害风险与畜牧业经济、冰雪旅游与区域经济等核心问题,从冰冻圈资源服务与灾害风险视角,详细阐述了冰冻圈融入不同区域发展的途径与模式。在干旱半干旱内陆地区,冰冻圈主要以水源涵养、水量供给与径流调节服务,融入绿洲社会经济发展,是一种冰冻圈水资源支撑型区域发展模式;在青藏高原高寒区,冰冻圈生态环境决定了畜牧业经济的脆弱性,冰冻圈灾害负向影响畜牧业经济,是一种冰冻圈生态支撑+灾害影响型区域发展模式;在冰冻圈旅游经济区,直接依托冰雪资源发展冰雪旅游业,是一种基于冰冻圈资源的旅游经济驱动型区域发展模式。     

Flood Hazard on the Rivers of the Baikal Region

A comprehensive characterization of the flood hazard on the rivers of the Baikal region is presented, which was obtained by investigating the streams within the basins of the Angara, Upper Lena (with the Vitim and Olekma), Lower Tunguska (headwaters), Upper Amur and Lake Baikal (including the entire Selenga basin). The main flood indicators for the period 1985–2017 are estimated: the genesis, recurrence, duration, flooded area and the force of impact. The influence of changes in the river runoff characteristics on the flood risk is shown by results of correlation analysis and analysis of integro-differential curves. An assessment is made of the changes in the flood frequency at gauging stations during the period of pronounced climatic changes (from 1981 to 2014), compared with the earlier period. The flood hazard within the spatial context for municipalities in the rank of administrative districts is determined on the basis of the dual (socio-economic and natural) nature of floods. It has been confirmed that the most dangerous in the Baikal region are rainfall floods in the southern areas of Irkutsk oblast, the Republic of Buryatia and Zabaikalskii krai. They have the highest frequency, and the largest flooding areas and force of impact and are characterized by the greatest damage and by the largest number of victims and evacuated people. At the same time, the frequency of floods at gauging stations in recent years has decreased compared to the earlier period against the background of the observed low-water period, which is most pronounced on the rivers of South Baikal and in the Selenga river basin.     

沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展

联合国国际减灾十年计划提出应更加重视自然灾害所造成的风险及其相应的防灾预案。 经过十几年的发展, 风暴潮灾害风险评估逐渐形成了独特的研究领域。目前国内外风暴潮灾害风 险评估研究主要集中在对风暴潮数值预报、潮高估算和重现期研究, 危险性评估, 承灾体暴露性 和脆弱性评估, 灾害风险区划、灾情损失评估等, 对沿海城市的风暴潮灾害综合风险及其次生灾 害链风险的研究则较少。从自然、社会、经济、政策、文化和工程等多角度建立沿海城市风暴潮灾 害风险评估指标体系, 运用3S 技术对沿海城市的风暴潮进行综合灾害风险研究是当前风暴潮灾 害研究的重要方向。今后的研究重点应构建基于场景的风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系和开发基 于风险的决策支持系统, 加强灾害撤退避难图编制研究, 建立持续的城市灾害风险管理体制以及 对防灾预案和灾情损失的定量化预评估等。     

基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型

随着全球气候变化的加剧和城市化进程的快速发展,洪涝灾害的影响和复杂性日益加剧。洪涝灾害风险评估是一项复杂的系统工程,在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义;作为洪涝灾害风险管理和应急处置的基础和核心,风险评估模型直接影响洪涝灾害风险评估结果的可靠性。洪涝灾害风险是洪涝灾害复杂系统组成部分相互作用的结果,综合考虑洪涝灾害系统的特点以及智能体建模的优势,提出了一种基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型。首先从复杂系统建模的角度出发,对洪涝灾害复杂系统进行分析建模,构建基于多智能体的洪涝灾害风险动态评估框架模型;其次,对所构建的框架模型中单个智能体模型进行研究,分别建立基于反应型的孕灾环境智能体模型和基于慎思型的致灾因子、承灾体和风险分析智能体模型,并对以上单个智能体的流程进行研究;然后以风险分析智能体联盟为例对模型框架中所涉及到4类智能体联盟的内部结构和流程进行分析,对构建的框架模型中涉及到的智能体通信协调和作用规则进行探讨;最后,在Netlogo平台上,基于30 m DEM数据和构建的模型,对淮河流域的暴雨型洪涝孕育发生发展全过程的人口风险进行动态评估。结果表明,构建的模型能有效评估洪涝灾害全过程中人口风险的动态。研究结果对洪涝灾害人口灾情评估、应急救助和应急管理都具有较强的指导意义。     

Paleolimnology and recent environmental change in Lake Baikal: an introduction and overview of interrelated concurrent studies

Recent environmental change research in Lake Baikal is introduced together with an overview of several interrelated papers published concurrently in this issue of Journal of Paleolimnology. Five themes are tackled by analysis of recent Baikal sediment cores, dating, geochemistry, particulate pollutants, magnetism and diatoms. The concurrent papers focus on the first four themes in some detail and summary results of diatom analysis (from Mackay et al., 1998) are given here. Taken together these studies provide a time-space framework for recent environmental change in Lake Baikal not previously available.There are significant shifts in species composition of the endemic planktonic diatom assemblages in uppermost sediments collected from throughout the lake. However, these changes usually precede the sediment record of low level but widespread contamination by industrial products. The most clear sign of industrial contamination is the presence of particles from fossil fuel combustion in sediment post dating the 1930s.Although evidence for widespread biostratigraphic changes by pollution is lacking, radionuclide, diatom, lithostratigraphic and magnetic stratigraphies indicate two main features, (i) it is possible to make stratigraphic correlations within and between basins using recent sediment cores, (ii) that turbidite deposits, from several to tens of cm thick, are frequently encountered in recent sediments.Turbidite deposits occur in ²¹⁰Pb dated and pre-²¹⁰Pb sediment core sections and are undoubtedly a major macro-disturbance feature in many deep water locations in Lake Baikal. If profiles are to be used as direct proxy records of climate variability, then screening of cores for turbidites is a pre-requisite for quality assurance in future paleoenvironmental studies.On-going international research including Swiss, Russian and British joint paleoenvironmental studies on the distribution and biological formation of recent sediments will hopefully lead to better interpretation of Holocene and pre-Holocene sediment records in Lake Baikal.     

广州市白云区金沙洲地区地质灾害风险区划

广州市白云区金沙洲一带因受武广高铁隧道等一大批重点工程项目施工中大量抽排地下水的影响,诱发了多次较为严重的地质灾害。文章在多年实地调查的基础上,系统分析其地质灾害致灾因子,建立了地质灾害易发程度分区的评价指标体系,采用信息量法,按照地质灾害易发程度对各评价单元划分等级,将金沙洲地区划分为4个区：高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。其中,武广高铁隧道通过的中南部地区属于地质灾害高易发区,该区隐伏岩溶发育,地质环境脆弱,不适宜大规模开发建设;浔峰断裂（F3）、沙贝断裂（F4）及保利西子湾断裂（F5）3条断裂通过的东部地区为地质灾害中易发区,该区发育有不良岩土体,区内主要发生地面沉降地质灾害;东南部大塱山组和中部测水组非可溶岩地层区为地质灾害低易发区,该区以埋藏型可溶岩分布为主,总体发生地质灾害的概率较小;西部丘陵地带为地质灾害不易发区,为非可溶岩区,不具备孕育地质灾害的形成环境。     

Historical Experience of Organic Agriculture Management in Transbaikalia

The historical factors of the development of organic agriculture in the Baikal region are considered on the basis of ethnoecological experience of traditional agriculture management in the 18^th–19^th centuries. It is pointed out that the historical method of developing the territory of Transbaikalia is based on nomadic ethnic culture, self-consciousness of the Buryat ethnos, and on the stereotype of behavior in the natural environment and constitutes a unique historical experience of adaptation of the Buryats in the steppe and forest-steppe landscapes of Transbaikalia. And the preservation of nomadic traditions and the Buryat culture of economic managing deserve the attention of researchers. The historical-geographical approach makes it possible to demonstrate the adaptive character of nomad livestock breeding and the use of the territory of Transbaikalia region by the Buryat ethnos in the past, using a conditionally allocated cattle-breeding model as an example. It is shown that the livestock husbandry (nomadic) model of agrarian nature management under consideration reflected a specific “strategy of adaptation” of traditional (nomadic) nature management to the natural environment of the region, which was at a certain socio-economic level of development and represented a natural model for the existence of the Buryat ethnos formed under the influence of the unique landscapes of Transbaikalia and historical traditions. The livestock husbandry model of the economy in the past was the main system of using the territory of Transbaikalia by the Buryat population and reflected the dynamic stereotype of behavior in a given natural environment. The main features of nomadic livestock husbandry are identified, which confirms that the livestock husbandry model was an ecologically correct form of farming, and traditional agriculture is an alternative to intensive forms of agriculture, a kind of management with a focus on the manufacture of ecologically clean products of livestock husbandry as well as being the prototype of organic agriculture in the Baikal region.     

多元视野下的海南省临高县海岸带综合评估与深度空间管控探讨

为进一步加强海岸带综合管理，探索更有效的空间管控方法，从各类生态环境敏感性的形成机理出发，通过选取代表性评价指标构建评价模型，综合评估了海南省临高县海岸带生态环境敏感性和地质灾害风险性，并将其与国土规划相结合，对研究区进行了深度空间管控分区分析。结果表明：1）土地荒漠化、土地盐渍化、暴雨洪涝、赤潮、海岸侵蚀均以轻度敏感为主，土壤侵蚀、台风灾害以中度敏感为主，特殊生境、风暴潮和灾害性海浪以高度敏感为主。综合敏感性轻度、中度、高度与极度敏感区面积分别为10 651.28、9 682.11、3 275.29和983.88 hm²，其中高度敏感区以调楼镇分布面积最大，极度敏感区以博厚镇分布最广；2）地质灾害以地震、崩塌、滑坡、地面沉降、砂土液化为主，除地震风险分为风险大区与中等区外，其余4种均只有中等风险区和风险小区，综合风险则有大、中等和小3个分级，其中风险大区主要分布于博厚、东英、波莲与皇桐镇的断裂带两侧各15 m范围区内，总面积为118.86 hm²；3）集生态敏感性、地质灾害风险与国土规划多元视野的海岸带深度空间管控分区，可较好地识别重要保护对象与关键保护区域，并使海岸带获得充分开发与利用。     

基于DEA方法的地质灾害风险管理研究——以广州萝岗区崩塌灾害为例

以对地质灾害隐患点进行风险评价和管理为目的,选择灾害易发程度、受威胁人口数、威胁基础设施的数量和等级为评价指标,利用数据包络分析方法(DEA)中的CCR模型对位于广州市萝岗区的崩塌地质灾害隐患点的风险大小进行排序和分组,并对结果的合理性进行验证分析.研究表明,运用DEA方法的CCR模型并选择合理的评价指标对地质灾害风险...     

基于格网的青海省干旱灾害综合风险评估

干旱灾害风险评估是执行区域性干旱灾害风险管理的重要举措,是有效实施气象防灾减灾工作的非工程性技术措施。随着气象现代化的逐步实施,干旱灾害风险评估技术和精度的重要性越加凸显。为科学、准确地评估青海省区域干旱的监测精度和干旱灾害风险等级,以青海省为例,采用青海省1961-2010年50个气象站潜在蒸散和降水数据,基于气象灾害风险度评估理论和方法,并根据《青海省地方干旱等级划分标准》,通过干旱灾害风险度模型和ArcGIS空间分析相结合的方法,较为系统地分析了青海省干旱灾害风险时空分布特征及其灾害风险等级。结果表明：近50 a以来,青海境内主要发生了不同程度的冬春季干旱。从时空分布特征来看,轻、中、重度干旱灾害分布和演化趋势基本一致,干旱灾害易发高发区主要分布于柴达木盆地西北部;环青海湖流域和共和盆地以及东部农业区局地处于中等风险水平,其余地区干旱灾害风险水平较低;从市、县、镇区域单元来看,茫崖、花土沟镇、冷湖及格尔木市干旱灾害风险较高,天峻、都兰、乌兰、共和、兴海、同德、贵南、同仁、化隆、循化及唐古拉等地次之,其余地区干旱灾害风险水平较低,青海境内干旱灾害的发生不仅受降水量影响,还与不同类型的下垫面密切相关。     

甘肃省张掖丹霞与彩色丘陵地貌的形成与景观特征

对发育在甘肃省张掖市境内祁连山山麓、白垩系中下统碎屑岩地层中的丹霞地貌与彩色丘陵形成的地层、构造、地貌、古地理环境和外动力条件进行了分析;将该地的丹霞地貌划分为窗棂状宫殿式、柱状式和巷谷式三类不同的地貌景观群,并分别描述了各类丹霞地貌和彩色丘陵的景观特征;从景观的典型性、美学价值、科考价值、观赏价值四个方面评价了丹霞地貌与彩色丘陵的科教旅游价值;认为张掖丹霞地貌既有南方丹霞之秀美、又有北方雅丹之雄浑,彩色丘陵色彩斑斓、绚丽多姿、气势宏大,这两种奇特的地貌景观相互衬托,成为国内独特的地质遗迹,具有极高的观赏价值和重要的科研价值,是旅游观光、绘画摄影、科普教育、科学研究和考察的最佳场所。     

城市减灾研究综述

加强防御、控制城市灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是当今国内外减灾工作的重点中的重点。在分析国内外城市减灾研究的基础上,提出当前城市防灾减灾研究中应重视开展城市灾害形成机制与活动规律、减灾理论与方法和减灾管理与对策的研究,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统构建、城市空间信息基础设施建设、城市易损性、风险性评价和灾害损失评估系统的研究。     

The Baikal problem: History and present (the 25<Superscript>th</Superscript> anniversary of the establishment of the Government Commission for Baikal)

This paper provides an overview of the documents on the preservation and sustainable use of natural resources within the Lake Baikal drainage basin. An analysis is made of the results of the environmental activity during the period of planned economy and post-perestroika. In the reform years, Baikal was included on the List of the World Natural Heritage Sites, the Federal Law “On the protection of Lake Baikal” was adopted as well as three federal target programs of the protection of the lake and socioeconomic development of the Baikal natural territory. Due to funding shortages, however, they are hardly implemented. The latest legal acts substantially restrict the rights of local residents to land privatization, the development of the social infrastructure, and to use natural resources. Furthermore, in spite of a large number of federal nature conservation directives, closure of many enterprises and reductions in emissions, the ecological situation on Lake Baikal is not improving. Among the problems is the negative attitude of local residents toward the restriction of their constitutional rights to property and economic activity. In addition, all ecological legislative acts are adopted without any public discussion and funding of environmental protection expenditures is not a priority. An improvement of the ecological situation on Baikal is possible only through a further development of the region’s environmentally safe economy and by raising the living standards of the local population on the principles of sustainable development with due regard for the interests of future generations.     

漓江流域干旱与洪涝灾害生态风险评价与管理

区域生态风险评价是进行生态风险管理的重要依据。流域生态风险评价应考虑地理单元的整体性和相对独立性。文章基于历史文献资料、自然地理数据和社会经济数据,选择漓江流域主要的自然灾害--干旱和洪涝为风险源,以161个子流域作为评价单元,基于相对风险评价模型,从风险源、脆弱度和抗风险能力3方面来评价流域综合生态风险。结果表明：漓江流域生态风险存在明显的空间差异性。高风险区占流域总面积的2.3%,主要分布于临桂县、灵川县北部和兴安县,表现为基础设施建设薄弱,景观稳定性差,生态脆弱度高;低风险区和较低风险区占流域总面积的59.0%,集中于猫儿山自然保护区、海洋山自然保护区和桂林市区,表现为保护区人为干扰较弱,植被保存完好,景观结构稳定,市区基础设施建设完善;下游阳朔县属中等风险区,存在一定风险隐患。最后基于风险评价结果提出了建立分级旱涝灾害预警机制和生态风险分级管理措施。     

长白山自然保护区旅游灾害及其防治对策

旅游灾害越来越受到人们的重视,文章通过对长白山自然保护区常见灾害类型的分析,建立了灾害管理系 统框架模型,为降低和消除旅游灾害,提出了防范对策。