夏季长江口海域溶解态铁的分布及混合行为研究

本文基于2015年7月长江口的现场调查资料,分析讨论了长江河口区溶解态铁(DFe)的含量分布与混合行为及其影响因素。结果表明:长江径流携带大量的DFe入海,且口内区(Ⅰ)浓度高于混合区(Ⅱ)和外海区(Ⅲ),平均浓度分别为166.45±6.26nmol/L,14.04±8.80nmol/L和6.18±1.51nmol/L。受去除作用和海水稀释的影响,在河口区DFe的浓度下降率达到96.92%。DFe浓度与盐度的关系符合指数模型,由模型与理论稀释线估算的长江口海域DFe的理论最大去除率为97.75%,与实际测得的最大浓度下降率相近。长江冲淡水、苏北沿岸流和台湾暖流影响DFe的水平分布。受长江冲淡水影响,长江口外海域DFe浓度高达176.50nmol/L。苏北沿岸流主要影响研究区域北部的表层水,其携带的DFe浓度低于长江冲淡水。台湾暖流是导致研究区域东南部DFe浓度较低的主要原因,使得中层和底层水中浓度分别低至4.04nmol/L和4.79nmol/L。另外,在表层海水中DFe的分布受到叶绿素a、溶解有机碳和溶解氧的共同影响,DFe与叶绿素a、溶解氧呈显著负相关,与溶解有机碳呈显著正相关。     

Sea surface temperature predictability in the North Pacific from multi-model seasonal forecast

Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to estimate the possibility of climate events than individual models. Hence, we assessed SST predictability in the North Pacific (NP) from multi-model seasonal forecasts. We used 23 years of hindcast data from three seasonal forecasting systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service to estimate the prediction skill based on temporal correlation. We evaluated the predictability of the SST from the ensemble members' width spread, and co-variability between the ensemble mean and observation. Our analysis revealed that areas with low prediction skills were related to either the large spread of ensemble members or the ensemble members not capturing the observation within their spread. The large spread of ensemble members reflected the high forecast uncertainty, as exemplified in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region in July. The ensemble members not capturing the observation indicates the model bias; thus, there is room for improvements in model prediction. On the other hand, the high prediction skills of the multi-model were related to the small spread of ensemble members that captures the observation, as in the central NP in January. Such high predictability is linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection.

     

A new hybrid vertical coordinate ocean model and its application in the simulation of the Changjiang diluted water

Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of some vertical coordinates applied in the calculation of the Changjiang diluted water(CDW),a new hybrid vertical coordinate is designed,which uses σ coordinate for current and σ-z coordinate for salinity.To combine the current and salinity,the Eulerian-Lagrangian method is used for the salinity calculation,and the baroclinic pressure gradient(BPG) is calculated on the salinity sited layers.The new hybrid vertical coordinate is introduced to the widely used model of POM(Princeton Ocean Model) to make a new model of POM-σ-z.The BPG calculations of an ideal case show that POM-σ-z model brings smaller error than POM model does.The simulations of CDW also show that POM-σ-z model is better than POM model on simulating the salinity and its front.     

苏北沿岸流对浒苔暴发及漂移过程的影响

根据2009年5月的温度、盐度和溶解氧观测数据,应用"对应分析法"对水团的分布范围和特性进行了分析,并探讨了苏北沿岸流对浒苔(Enteromorpha prolifera)暴发及漂移过程的影响。结果表明,春季苏北沿岸流向东南流动过程中,可以将海水中悬浮的浒苔繁殖体向南输运至长江冲淡水与苏北沿岸流交汇处,此处的浒苔繁殖体在适宜的条件下生长繁殖。在夏季风的作用下,长江口北部的浒苔与苏北沿岸海域的浒苔,随表层海流向北漂移,在地球偏转力作用下,漂移路径不断向右偏转,并最终在山东半岛南部海域聚集堆积。苏北沿岸流在浒苔暴发初期将繁殖体输送到条件适宜的生长区,并对浒苔向北漂移起到了重要作用。长江冲淡水向北扩展范围的增大对于浒苔的生长和繁殖起到了促进作用。查明浒苔扩散路径及输运机制不仅具有重要环境意义,而且对深入了解沿岸和河口区泥沙及污染物的扩散和输运机制具有指示作用。     

The model of tracing drift targets and its application in the South China Sea

A Leeway-Trace model was established for the traceability analysis of drifting objects at sea. The model was based on the Leeway model which is a Monte Carlo-based ensemble trajectory model, and a method of realistic traceability analysis was proposed in this study by using virtual spatiotemporal drift trajectory prediction. Here,measured data from a drifting buoy observation experiment in the northern South China Sea in April 2019,combined with surface current data obtained from the finite volu...     

长江口及邻近海域现代沉积物中正构烷烃分子组合特征及其对有机碳运移分布的指示

报道了长江口及邻近海域现代沉积物中正构烷烃的浓度及分布特征,通过因子分析法对正构烷烃来源进行了探讨.结果表明,调查站位正构烷烃主要可归纳为3种类型:陆源输入优势型(单峰群)、陆源和海洋内生混合类型(双峰群)和石油类污染类型(单峰型,不具奇偶优势).长江口邻近站位正构烷烃色谱指标的突变,是长江河口区2种不同水团造成沉积物差异的客观反映.除P4外,研究站位总正构烷烃含量(∑n-Alk)与有机碳总量(TOC)相关性良好,且长江口东南-浙江沿岸软泥区正构烷烃的陆源高等植物组分(TER-Alk)、海洋内生组分(PL-1)、奇偶碳优势指数(CPI)等指标与运移距离呈线形关系.在因子分析显示不同来源的4种正购烷烃中,以陆源烷烃输入比重最大(51.5%),在陆源烷烃中又以东海河流物质贡献最大(49.1%);根据因子负荷差异,推测东海北部沉积有机质可能多数来源于苏北沿岸及老黄河口水下三角洲,冲绳海槽区则可能大部分来源于长江及东海内陆架物质,并探讨了其运移机理.     

东海风应力旋度驱动的21天周期的海底压力变化及其传播

在2015年6月至2017年6月期间，跨越庆良间水道的由2台加载压力传感器的倒置式回声仪（PIES）和5台加载压力传感器和海流计的倒置式回声仪（CPIES）组成的观测断面获得了近2年的海底压力时间序列。该时间序列中存在着显著的21天周期的振荡（P_bot21），该信号在2016年7月至10月期间尤为强烈。P_bot21与东海陆架上的风应力旋度存在较显著的3天延迟相关，其相关系数达到0.65。本文采用正压海洋模式解释了这一信号的产生、传播以及耗散过程，模式结果显示东海陆架上的风应力旋度驱动产生P_bot21并向琉球岛链传播，而深海上的风应力旋度不能驱动产生这一信号。在陆架上，P_bot21伴随21天周期的风应力旋度由海岸向东南方向传播，但由于摩擦作用，信号在离开风场后几天内即耗散。断面能否观测到P_bot21与陆架上21天周期风应力旋度场的分布相关，长江口东南方向风应力旋度驱动的P_bot21能被观测到，而长江口东北方向产生的P_bot21不能被观测到。     

坐底式整平船对流场影响的试验研究

通过整平船在长江口南导堤 Se段工程对流场影响的模型试验 ,得出各断面在不同潮位、流速、流向情况下 ,只有导堤和有整平船作业时会对周围流场有影响 ,为施工方案的比选以及施工中应采取的措施提供了可靠的依据。     

垂向二维潮流数值模型及其在长江口北槽的应用

应用变网格有限元方法，采用任意四边形等参单元，离散横向积分的Navier—Stokes方程，建立河口潮流垂向二维数学模型。应用此模型，对长江口北槽水域两个观测站的潮流水位、流速垂线分布和整个北槽潮流流速纵向分布进行了模拟。潮流水位、流速垂线分布的模拟值分别与观测站的实测值可以较为吻合，证明了本文模型的实用有效。模拟得到的涨急、落急时刻整个北槽潮流流速纵向分布给出了定性的结果。     

Sources and Transport of Particulate Hydrocarbons in the Meso-tidal Changjiang Estuary

n-Alkanes and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analysed on suspended particles from surface waters of the Changjiang Estuary to assess the sources and fate of river-borne material in a meso-tidal riverine system. The n -alkane and PAH assemblages indicated prevailing terrestrial and anthropogenic inputs. Measurements performed at several stations within the estuary showed lower concentrations in the North than in the South Channel. These observations were in agreement with the dynamics and flow pattern of the Changjiang in this part of the estuary. Concentrations measured at a tidal series station over two tidal cycles exhibited a significant increase in flooding of more saline waters. Total suspended particles were also higher, reaching their maximum value (1·9 g l^-1) at high tide during the first flood. These findings were attributed to the landwards transport of the turbidity maximum zone from the outer estuary, as the Taiwan Warm Current funnels into the Changjiang River mouth. Saltier and less turbid waters with a more pronounced marine character could reach the tidal series site at the final stage of the second flood. During the ebb, suspended n-alkane and PAH concentrations were lower but their compositional features remained similar to those during the flood. A high total suspended particle concentration was observed during the ebb, presumably due to the Huang Pu waters flushing. The n -alkane and PAH content of the particles during such an event pointed out stronger contamination of the waters after crossing the highly populated and industrialized area of Shanghai. Flux calculations based on current meter data indicated significant differences between flood and ebb transports.     

Evaluation of cross curves of fishing vessels at the preliminary design stage

The prediction of ship stability during the early stages of the design process is very important from the point of a vessel's safety. Hence, in this study, a formula is presented to estimate cross curves of fishing vessels to predict initial stability at the preliminary design stage. For this purpose, 175 fishing vessel forms have been generated from Doust trawler hull series. The predictive technique is established by regression analysis of systematically varied fishing vessel series data. The mathematical model is constructed as a function of main design parameters such as length to beam ratio L_WL/B_WL, beam to draft ratio B_WL/T, moulded depth to draft ratio D/T and block coefficient C_B. This prediction is also used to determine the effect of specific hull form parameters and load conditions on the stability of the fishing vessel. Some basic considerations on how the proposed method can be applied to a new fishing vessel are presented.     

长江口湍流剖面的观测与分析

小尺度湍流过程对河口物质输运与能量交换至关重要。受传统观测方法的限制, 河口浅水区域的剖面观测资料至今较为匮乏, 进而限制了湍流过程的研究。为此, 采用新型5波束声学多普勒流速剖面仪(Nortek Signature 1 000 kHz AD2CP)在长江口开展湍流剖面观测, 获取高频、低噪的高质量湍流剖面数据, 并与声学多普勒点式流速仪(acoustic doppler velocimeters, ADV)同步观测的数据进行对比。结果表明, 通过AD2CP与ADV获得的近底部边界层摩阻流速u_*、拖曳系数C_d、雷诺应力S_R等特征参数基本一致, 底摩擦与波浪能量为河口区域湍动能的主要输入源。湍流垂向结构存在显著的非局地平衡, 即温盐等斜压作用引起的浮力通量、对流项以及强波浪作用影响的脉动压力做功、黏性输运等因素可能为长江口湍流非局地平衡的主因。     

Sedimentation and morphological changes at Yuantuojiao Point,estuary of the North Branch,Changjiang River

The North Branch, separated by the Chongming Island, was once the main channel in the estuary of the Changjiang River. Reclamation and a decrease in runoff to the North Branch had led to the narrowing and shallowing of the channel. The Yuantuojiao Point is located at the intersecting point connecting the North Branch of the Changjiang River and the Jiangsu coastline. Erosion cliffs are developed between the typical silty-muddy tidal flat and the salt marsh occupied by Spartina alterniflorea, and this has changed rapidly over the past few years. The sediment grain size analysis results of the surficial and two core samples indicate that the Yuantuojiao Point tidal flat experienced continuous accretional processes. Based upon 137 Cs analysis results of the YT and YY Cores sampled from the tidal flat at the Yuantuojiao Point, the average sedimentation rate of the YT Core was 2.30 cm/a from 1963 to 2007, and 2.38 cm/a from 1954 to 2007 for the YY Core. The sedimentation rates of both core locations have declined since the 1960s corresponding to the seaward reclamation at the Yuantuojiao Point. The average sedimentation rates at the Yuantuojiao Point were similar to that of the silty-muddy tidal flat at the northern Jiangsu coast, but lower than that of the south of the Changjiang River Estuary. According to field morphological investigations from 2006 to 2008 on the salt marsh at the Yuantuojiao Point, cliffs retreated markedly by storm surges and disappeared gradually because of the rapid sedimentation on the silty-muddy tidal flat. The maximum annual retreat reached 10 m. The recent sedimentation and morphological changes of the Yuantuojiao Point tidal flat not only displayed the retreat of the salt marsh and the disappearance of cliffs, but also was accompanied by rapid sedimentation of the silty-muddy tidal flat and the salt marsh, indicating the responses to the tidal currents, storm surges, Spartina alterniflorea trapping sediments and large-scale reclamation. The sediment grain size and their trends, southward coastal flow, and sandspits of the longshore bars suggest that the main sediment source at the Yuantuoijao Point, estuary of the North Branch was possibly from the Changjiang River before 1958, since then, it has been from the south of the submarine radial sand ridges of the southern Huanghai Sea (Yellow Sea).     

苏北中部滨海平原成陆机制研究

苏北中部滨海平原位于废黄河三角洲和长江三角洲之间，其形成与全新世最大海侵之后长江、古黄河的供沙历史和供沙状况密切相关，并且现今海域南黄海辐射沙洲的辐聚点也位于这段海岸，故探讨其成陆机制具有重要意义。本文数值模拟了公元８世纪时该区的Ｍ２潮汐、潮流，在此基础上，计算了７种粒径泥沙在当时潮流场中的净输运状况，划分了海底冲淤区。计算结果表明，公元８世纪时苏北岸外存在大致以东台为顶点的辐射状古潮流场，其分布格局与现今苏北岸外大致以京港为顶点的辐射关潮流场基本一致，该辐射状潮流场的存在是由当时台东岸外的独特驻潮波波腹所决定的。进入苏北岸外古辐射状潮流场中的泥沙，在辐聚、辐散的潮流作用下，每一个潮周期均自ＮＥ、ＳＥ方向向东台附近海域净输运泥沙，在东台附近海域发生淤积。由此认为，苏北中部滨海平原是大致以东台为顶点的辐聚、辐散潮     

基于合成孔径雷达的长江口海表流场反演

Range Doppler velocities derived from the Envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar（ASAR） wide swath images are analyzed and assessed against the numerically simulated surface current fields derived from the finite volume coastal ocean model（FVCOM） for the Changjiang Estuary. Comparisons with the FVCOM simulations show that the European Space Agency（ESA） Envisat ASAR based Doppler shift anomaly retrievals have the capability to capture quantitative information of the surface currents in the Changjiang Estuary. The uncertainty analysis of the ASAR range Doppler velocity estimates are discussed with regard to the azimuthal and range bias corrections, radar incidence angles, inaccuracy in the wind field corrections and the presence of rain cells.The corrected range Doppler velocities for the Changjiang Estuary area are highly valuable as they exhibit quantitative expressions related to the multiscale upper layer dynamics and surface current variability around the East China Sea, including the Changjiang Estuary.     

基于灰色系统西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型的构建

阿根廷滑柔鱼（Illex argentinus）是西南大西洋鱿钓渔业的主要作业鱼种，对资源丰度进行准确的预测可指导企业合理安排渔业生产。因此，本研究根据2000-2016年我国西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的生产数据，以单位捕捞努力量的渔获量（Catch per unit effort， CPUE）为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的指标，利用灰色绝对关联分析和灰色预测建模的方法（GM（0， N）），计算2001-2015年CPUE的时间序列值与产卵期（6-8月）产卵场海表面温度（Sea surface temperature， SST）时间序列值的灰色绝对关联度，选取产卵场海域中灰色绝对关联度大于0.90的海区SST建立资源丰度预测模型，并用2016年实际CPUE进行验证。灰色绝对关联分析表明，6-8月，30°~40°S，45°~60°W海域内存在若干海区的SST与次年对数CPUE时间序列呈现较强的关联度，可作为预报因子。GM（0， N）模型结果表明，以6-8月产卵场SST作为环境因子建立的模型4能较好地拟合出阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度变动趋势，与2016年真实值相比，相对误差为7%，该模型可较好地作为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型。相反，包含6月和7月SST的模型1效果优于不包含6月SST的模型2或不包含7月SST的模型3，拟合得到的2016年的数据与真实值相比，相对误差分别为128%和289%，这说明6月和7月是西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的主要产卵月份。     

Vertical two-dimensional mechanism of tidal exchange in a bay with a sill-entrance

For a vertical two-dimensional field with a sill at a bay entrance, the tidal exchange mechanism is discussed.The schematic model is proposed as follows. The tidal trapping effect which is detected at the entrance section,i. e., the material transport due to the phase difference between the tidal periodic constituent of material concentration and tidal current at the entrance section, results because the oscillatory tidal flow at the sill entrance induces a gravitational flow along the sill slope inside the entrance. Accordingly, the tidal trapping effect depends largely upon the difference in water density between the bay and open sea and the density stratification in the bay.This model is supported by the observations at Kabira Cove (Okinawa Pref.) and Lake Hamana (Shizuoka Pref.) in 1976 through 1984. In addition, based on this model, in the case of Lake Hamana, the activity of the tidal exchange is inferred to change seasonally.     

大西洋热带海域长鳍金枪鱼渔场预报模型的比较

为提高大西洋热带海域长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)渔场预报的准确率,对K最近邻(k nearest neighbor,KNN)、逻辑斯蒂回归(logistic regression,LR)、决策与分类树(classfication and regression tree,CART)、梯度提升决策树(gr...     

基于MaxEnt和GARP的阿蒙森海域南极磷虾(EUPHAUSIA SUPERBA)的分布区预测

南极磷虾是南大洋生态系统的关键物种,在南极碳汇过程中起到重要作用,近年来受到越来越多的关注。针对位于南大洋太平洋扇区的阿蒙森海域,运用最大熵模型(maximumentropy modeling,MaxEnt)和预设规则的遗传算法(geneticalgorithmforrule-setproduction,GARP)两种生态位模型,基于已采集的南极磷虾分布点的数据,对其在阿蒙森海域的潜在分布区进行了预测和分析,并采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiveroperatingcharacteristiccurve,ROC)下的面积(areaundercurve,AUC)和真实技巧统计法(true skill statistic, TSS)对模型结果进行评估。结果表明:MaxEnt模型中的高适生区刻画细致, GARP模型预测的高适生区分布范围更广。为克服单个模型的不确定性得到更佳结果,将两个模型的预测结果进行集合。集合后的结果模拟精度显著提高(AUC为0.946, TSS为0.78),达到了极好的预测效果。磷虾的高适生区集中分布在65°～73°S,占总面积的6.2%,中适生区占总面积的5.7%。...     

基于ST-ConvLSTM的南海海表面CO2分压的空间和时间序列预测

海表面二氧化碳分压(pCO₂)的未来变化趋势,对统计评估全球碳收支以及理解全球气候变化背景下的海洋酸化现象至关重要。目前传统的海面pCO₂预测方法大部分基于有限的实测数据,然而实测数据存在着时间和地理方面的制约,且计算成本较高。近年来,随着时空观测数据的爆炸性增长,基于深度学习的数据驱动模型在海表面pCO₂预测方面中表现出良好的潜力。然而,由于多种环境因素与海表面pCO₂之间的关系错综复杂,到目前为止尚无十分简单有效的相关模型来对海表面pCO₂进行预测。为应对这一挑战,利用时空卷积长短时记忆神经网络(ST-ConvLSTM)模型,通过海面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、海面盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)、叶绿素a浓度(chl a)和海面pCO₂数据,预测南海的海面pCO₂,并将2019年1～12月的数据作为测试集对模型的表现进行了验证。结果显示, ST-ConvLSTM模型...