基于CMIP6气候变化情景下南极小须鲸(Balaenoptera bonaerensis)在宇航员海栖息地变化分析

南极小须鲸(Balaenopterabonaerensis)作为顶级捕食者,在南大洋生态系统中起着重要调节作用。目前对南极小须鲸的研究大多集中在捕食和季节性迁移上,在栖息地分布以及气候变化对栖息地影响方面研究亟待补充。基于MaxEnt模型和CMIP6的数据,分析了当前情形以及不同排放情景下,到21世纪中期和21世纪末期宇航员海南极小须鲸栖息地的分布和变化。研究结果表明,南极小须鲸主要分布在宇航员海的东部,当前的高度适生区占整个区域的13.96%。深度、海冰密集度和混合层深度最小值是南极小须鲸分布的主要影响因子,三者的累积贡献为60.5%。气候变化情景下南极小须鲸栖息地呈现缩小的趋势。高排放情景下南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小更快,从21世纪中期到末期这个时期南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小速率比从当前到21世纪中期快。到本世纪中期,所有情景下的宇航员海东部仍存在南极小须鲸的栖息地;到本世纪末,中排放情景和高排放情景下的宇航员海已不适合南极小须鲸生存,海冰密集度的减小是造成这一现象的主要原因。     

基于RF和GAM模型的南极磷虾资源分布与环境因子关系研究

为实现南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)渔场的有效预测和高效开发。本研究基于"龙腾"号拖网渔船在南设得兰群岛和象岛周围海域2015—2019年渔捞日志的数据,应用随机森林模型(Random forest, RF)和广义可加模型(Genera-lized additive model, GAM)分析了南极磷虾单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit effort, CPUE)与环境因子(经纬度、表层水温、水深、离岸距离)之间的关系。RF模型分析显示:经度和纬度与南极磷虾CPUE整体上呈负相关关系;随着表层水温的升高南极磷虾的CPUE呈逐渐下降趋势;当水深小于1 000 m时,南极磷虾CPUE较高,当水深大于1 000 m时,南极磷虾CPUE与水深呈负相关关系,这表明水深对南极磷虾的分布影响显著。GAM模型分析显示:南极磷虾CPUE与经度在整体上呈极显著非线性负相关关系(P0.01);与表层水温呈极显著线性负相关关系(P0.01);与纬度、水深和离岸距离呈极显著非线性相关关系(P0.01)。综合这两种模型结果表明,南极磷虾适宜栖息于较浅海域且在不同海域对水温的适宜性不同,CPUE高值相对集中于62.5°S—63.5°S、58°W—60°W范围。相较于GAM模型,RF模型拟合效果更优(R~2=0.331 4±0.000 7,RMSE=0.248 1±0.000 2)。RF模型通过计算变量重要性并排序,选择对南极磷虾的CPUE产生影响的主导因子,在研究海洋生物资源分布中有广阔的应用前景。     

冰藻对南大洋大西洋扇区南极磷虾越冬期间碳源的贡献

南极磷虾是南大洋生态系统的关键物种, 种群聚集在南大洋的大西洋扇区。海冰在南极磷虾生活史中起着重要作用, 海冰及其冰下环境为磷虾越冬提供了避难场所, 但海冰是否为磷虾越冬提供了重要的饵料存在一定的争议, 对此问题的解决需要量化源于海冰的冰藻对南极磷虾越冬期间饵料及碳源的贡献。基于2020年冬季(3~8月)于南大洋大西洋扇区48.1亚区(布兰斯菲尔德海峡周边区域)和48.3亚区(南乔治亚岛周边海域)采集的磷虾样品, 通过两种高支链类异戊二烯化合物(IPSO₂₅和HBI III)分别作为源于海冰的冰藻和源于水体浮游植物的生物标志物, 对两个区域冬季磷虾对冰藻和浮游植物的依赖进行研究。结果显示, 处于较高纬度、海冰密集度较高的48.1亚区的南极磷虾体内含有更高的IPSO₂₅, 而处于开阔水域48.3亚区的磷虾体内有更高比例的HBI III, 另外48.3亚区磷虾的δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N稳定同位素显著高于48.1亚区的磷虾。48.1亚区南极磷虾越冬期间对浮游植物和冰藻的依赖与体长相关, 其中体长相对较短的早期成体呈现更高的依赖性, 同时该区域磷虾对冰藻的摄食提高了其营养级地位。48.3区南极磷虾越冬期间两种类异戊二烯含量与δ¹⁵N稳定同位素数值呈负相关关系, 表明该区域南极磷虾在初级生产匮乏时会摄食动物性饵料。若未来南大洋大西洋扇区海冰持续减少, 这将对整个磷虾种群、磷虾渔业的可持续发展和区域生态系统的稳定性产生威胁。     

南极大磷虾粉对点带石斑鱼幼鱼氟蓄积的影响

为研究南极大磷虾(Euphausia superba)粉对点带石斑鱼幼鱼氟蓄积和生长的影响,作者通过饲养点带石斑鱼(Epinephelus malabaricus)幼鱼(初始体质量为(3.50±0.30)g,体长(5.5±0.3)cm)100 d,在基础日粮中添加0%(对照组)、2%、4%和6%的南极大磷虾粉制成4组饲料,饲料中氟质量分数分别为145.81、202.71、257.53和317.60 mg/kg。结果显示:南极大磷虾粉中的氟在点带石斑鱼幼鱼组织中的分布程度,以脊椎骨和鳃中为最高,氟质量分数分别为(58.020~114.380)mg/kg和(46.029~123.874)mg/kg,其次是皮(含鳞片)((44.127~88.761)mg/kg),再次是肝((7.654~18.248)mg/kg),而肌肉中氟蓄积最低((3.352~3.999)mg/kg);脊椎骨、皮(含鳞片)和鳃中氟含量随饲养时间的延续而产生蓄积,且与饲料中南极大磷虾粉的水平呈正相关,肝中氟含量随饲养时间延续而产生蓄积,但与南极大磷虾粉的水平无相关性,肌肉中氟含量与饲养时间和南极大磷虾粉水平均无相关性;100 d时,4%组和6%组的特定生长率处于最高水平,且显著高于对照组(P0.05)。本研究表明在饲料中添加4%~6%南极大磷虾粉,对点带石斑鱼幼鱼生长具有明显的促进作用。     

南极夏季南设得兰群岛周边海域浮游动物优势种群的分布、丰度及种群结构分析

根据2013/2014年夏季在南极南设得兰群岛周边海域使用北太平洋网采样品及同步环境调查资料,分析了南极大磷虾(Euphausia superba)、拟长臂樱磷虾(Thysanoessa macrura)、尖角似哲水蚤(Calanoides acutus)和近缘哲水蚤(Calanus propinquus)这四种优势浮游动物的丰度和分布特征。结果表明,南极大磷虾和拟长臂樱磷虾在南设得兰海域均有较为广泛的分布,其中南极大磷虾丰度较高,且它们的水平分布存在一定程度的空间分离。在研究海域东部的南奥克尼群岛(South Orkneys)邻近海域发现了大量的南极大磷虾原蚤状C期幼体,表明大磷虾曾于1月中上旬左右产卵繁殖。研究海域的东部南极大磷虾种群结构以幼体前期为主,而西部的种群结构则以幼体后期、未成体和成体为主。尖角似哲水蚤和近缘哲水蚤的空间分布也较为广泛,且两者分布基本一致。东部南奥克尼群岛临近海域的浮游植物浓度较低,这可能是大量南极大磷虾幼体和桡足类摄食活动的结果。     

南大洋混合层的时空变化特征

过去对南大洋的研究受限于长期观测的缺乏,而现在地转海洋学实时观测阵(Arrayfor Real-timeGeostrophicOceanography,Argo)项目自开始以来持续提供了高质量的温度盐度观测,使系统地研究南大洋海洋上层结构成为可能。本研究使用2000—2018年的Argo浮标观测数据,分析了南大洋混合层深度(Mixed Layer Depth, MLD)的时空分布特征。结果表明:南大洋混合层存在明显的季节变化,冬春两季MLD在副南极锋面北侧达到最高值并呈带状分布,夏秋两季由于海表加热导致混合层变浅,季节变化幅度达到400m以上;在年际尺度上,MLD受南半球环状模(Southern HemisphereAnnularMode,SAM)调制,呈现纬向不对称空间分布特征,这与前人结果一致;本文指出在所研究时段,南大洋混合层在90°E以东,180°以西有加深趋势,而在60°W以西,180°以东有变浅趋势,显示出偶极子分布特征,并且这种趋势特征主要是风场的作用。     

基于GAM和GWR模型分析环境因子对南极磷虾资源分布的非线性和非静态性影响

分析南极磷虾分布与环境因子的非线性和空间非静态性关系,对南极磷虾的高效捕捞和管理具有重要意义。本研究基于"龙腾"船2015、2016年在南设得兰群岛捕捞作业的渔捞日志数据,应用广义加模型(Generalized additive model,GAM)和地理权重回归模型(Geographical weighted regression,GWR)探究南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)渔场分布与环境因子的非线性和空间非静态性关系,并比较这2种模型的模拟性能,为南极磷虾的渔场渔情预报、资源评估和渔业管理提供基础数据。GAM模型结果显示,2015、2016年单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit effort, CPUE)与作业水深均呈显著负相关关系(P0.01),表明在作业水深范围内,南极磷虾在较浅水域集群密度较高;2015年CPUE与表层水温呈显著正相关关系(P0.01),但在2016年呈显著负相关关系(P0.01),推测是由于2年调查作业位置不同所致;CPUE与离岸距离关系不显著(P≥0.05)。GWR模型结果显示,作业水深对CPUE的影响无显著的空间变化(P0.05);海水表温和离岸距离对CPUE的影响具显著的空间变化(P0.01),表明这2个因子对南极磷虾渔场分布的影响在空间上不连续,存在显著空间非静态性。GAM模型可用于研究资源分布与驱动因子的一般规律;GWR模型作为全局回归模型的有效补充,可用于探究一般规律不适合的特殊区域,便于发现资源分布的"热点"区域,未来在海洋生物资源分布研究中将有广阔的应用前景。     

GFDL模式不同类型试验模拟海洋中CFC-11分布结果的评估

为了评估美国地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)模式模拟海洋通风的能力,利用GFDL的物理气候系统模式和地球系统模式(GFDL-ESM2G、GFDL-ESM2M、GFDL-CM3)模拟海洋中CFC-11(一氟三氯甲烷,CCl3F)的资料,对CFC-11的海面浓度分布、单位面积水柱总量、全球总物质的量、最大穿透深度以及在大西洋、太平洋、南大洋的垂直剖面的特征进行了分析。本文将GFDL模拟结果与盐度、海温、CFC-11的观测资料比较,得到了如下重要结论:GFDL模式模拟的CFC-11海面高值中心集中在高纬度,如北大西洋、西北太平洋,但是在南大洋罗斯海、威德尔海模拟结果比观测值低了1.5 pmol·kg~(-1),这是CFC-11的溶解度与海面温度成负相关造成的,即随海面温度升高,CFC-11的溶解度降低; GFDL模拟的全球海洋中CFC-11总物质的量都比观测值高,尤其是CM3的模拟结果比观测高22.9%,GFDL模式平均值高于观测15.6%。通过对北太平洋46°N、北大西洋24°N和南大洋65°S的纬向断面的分析表明,目前GFDL模式在模拟一些重要水团时还有一定的改进空间,比如GFDL在24°N断面1 000 m以下模拟CFC-11浓度极大值位置过深。     

基于两种机器学习方法分析东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)时空分布

为了解东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunustrituberculatus)资源时空分布规律,探索更适合三疣梭子蟹资源量预测的模型方法,根据2006—2007年共四个季度在东海北部海域的底拖网调查数据,运用梯度提升回归树(gradientboostingregressiontree,GBRT)和支持向量机(supportvector machine,SVM)这两种机器学习方法,分析了三疣梭子蟹时空分布与环境因子之间的关系,同时使用方差解释率(VE)、相对均方根误差(RMSE)以及决定系数R2等指标对不同模型的拟合效果、预测性能以及稳定性等进行了比较,选择其中最佳模型对东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹资源分布进行预测。结果显示, GBRT模型的拟合效果相对优于SVM模型,两种模型的拟合结果均显示底层海水盐度(SBS)为影响三疣梭子蟹资源分布最为显著的环境因子。GBRT模型的预测性能较高且模型较为稳定,其预测结果显示夏季的资源量高于其他三个季节,且各季节所研究海域的东南部均存在一个资源分布的低值区。研究结果预期可为三疣梭子蟹资源分布及资源量预测新方法的探索和分析提供技术指导。     

南大洋和南极考察航线海表超微型浮游生物分布及影响因子

南极考察航线跨越全球多个大洋,对认识超微型浮游生物在全球尺度分布及变化具有重要意义。依托中国第33次南极考察,利用流式细胞仪对航线海表水样中的超微型浮游生物进行了现场测定。结果表明,在热带与温带海域,超微型浮游生物量可占总叶绿素a浓度的60%以上,在南大洋则集中在15%～40%;原绿球藻主要分布在40°S以北海域,聚球藻主要分布在50°S以北海域,而超微型真核藻类和异养细菌则在沿线各海域均有明显分布。在纬向上,原绿球藻、聚球藻、超微型真核藻类和异养细菌的平均丰度分别为(5.50±9.09)×10³ cells/mL、(13.56±20.33)×10³ cells/mL、(3.87±3.08)×10³ cells/mL和(6.39±4.78)×10⁵ cells/mL;南大洋海域,超微型真核藻类和异养细菌的平均丰度分别为(3.31±1.46)×10³ cells/mL和(4.68±4.39)×10⁵ cells/mL,在少数站位检测到较低丰度的聚球藻,平均值...     

A circumpolar modeling study of habitat control of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) reproductive success

A one-dimensional, temperature-dependent model is implemented to simulate the descent–ascent cycle of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) embryos and larvae. Inputs to the model are monthly mean climatologies of ambient temperature and density fields obtained from the World Ocean Atlas Database for Southern Ocean waters. Simulations are done with a 1° resolution at a circumpolar scale, south of 60°S, and the results are interpolated to a 5′ grid to match the resolution of the bottom bathymetry data. Simulations of the descent–ascent cycle using environmental conditions corresponding to the Antarctic krill spawning season (December–March) resulted in unconstrained success in completion of the cycle in water deeper than 1000 m. Continental shelf regions favorable to successful hatching of Antarctic krill embryos are limited to areas along the west Antarctic Peninsula, large areas in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, offshore of Wilkes Land, and to the east and west of Prydz Bay. These are regions where the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front is along the shelf slope, the Antarctic Slope Front is absent, and Circumpolar Deep Water is present. The effect of seasonal variability in temperature on the descent–ascent cycle tends to enhance the probability of success in regions offshore of Wilkes Land, Queen Maud Land, and the eastern shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula later in the spawning season. The simulations show that success of the descent–ascent cycle is sensitive to initial embryo diameter and larval ascent rate. Initial embryo diameter may provide an additional constraint on success of the descent–ascent cycle, especially in continental shelf waters, where small embryos tend to encounter the bottom before hatching. The circumpolar distributions of simulated embryo hatching depth and larval success show that all regions of the Antarctic are not equal in the ability to support successful completion of the Antarctic krill descent–ascent cycle, which has implications for the overall circum-Antarctic krill distribution and for the development of nutrient and material budgets, especially for Antarctic continental shelf areas.     

Transport of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) across the Scotia Sea. Part I: Circulation and particle tracking simulations

The Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) is configured to simulate the circulation of the Scotia Sea and environs. This is part of a study designed to test the hypothesis that Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) populations at South Georgia in the eastern Scotia Sea are sustained by import of individuals from upstream regions, such as the western Antarctic Peninsula. Comparison of the simulated circulation fields obtained from HOPS with observations showed good agreement. The surface circulation, particularly through the Drake Passage and across the Scotia Sea, matches observations, with its northeastward flow characterized by three high-speed fronts. Also, the Weddell Sea and the Brazil Current, and their associated transports match observations. In addition, mesoscale variability, an important component of the flow in this region, is found in the simulated circulation and the model is overall well suited to model krill transport. Drifter simulations conducted with HOPS showed that krill spawned in areas coinciding with known krill spawning sites along the west Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf can be entrained into the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). They are transported across the Scotia Sea to South Georgia in 10 months or less. Drifters originating on the continental shelf of the Weddell Sea can reach South Georgia as well; however, transport from this region averages about 20 months. Additional simulations show that such transport is sensitive to changes in wind stress and the location of the SACCF. The results of this study show that krill populations along the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea are possible source populations that can provide krill to the South Georgia population. However, successful transport of krill to South Georgia is shown to depend on a multitude of factors, such as the location of the spawning area and timing of spawning, and variations in the location of the SACCF. Therefore, this study provides insight into which environmental factors control the successful transport of krill across the Scotia Sea and with it a better understanding of krill distribution in the region.     

Spatial and seasonal distribution of adult Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean: Predictions using boosted regression trees

We applied a multivariate statistical modelling technique called boosted regression trees to derive relationships between environmental conditions and the distribution of the adult stage of the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean. Nearly 20 000 samples from the Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder survey (87% from East Antarctica) were used to model the probability of detection (presence) and relative abundance of adults of this zooplankton species in surface waters. We demonstrate that it is possible to obtain reasonable models for both the presence (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.77) and relative abundance (28–35% variance explained) of adult O. similis between November and March in much of the Southern Ocean. No investigation was possible where the environmental characteristics were not well represented by the SO-CPR dataset, namely, the Argentine shelf, Weddell Sea, and the frontal region north of the Amundsen Sea, or under sea-ice. Our analyses support the hypothesis that adult O. similis abundance is related to environmental conditions in a broadly similar way throughout the Southern Ocean. Compared to a compilation of net-haul data from the literature, the abundance model explained 34% of the variance in surface concentrations of adult stages of this species, and 23–59% of the variance in depth-integrated abundance of copepodite and adult stages combined. The models show higher occurrence and elevated abundances in a broad circumpolar band between the Antarctic Polar Front and the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (approximately 54–64°S). Evidence of diel vertical migration by adults of this species north of 65°S was found, with surface abundances 20% higher at night than during the day. There was no evidence of diel migration south of 65°S. Five potential “hotspots” of adult O. similis were identified: in the southern Scotia Sea, two areas off east Antarctica, in the frontal zone north of the Amundsen Sea, and a small area in the outer Bellingshausen Sea. We recommend that a database of all available net-haul data on Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean be created to facilitate further investigations on the circumpolar distribution of this species.     

中国南极考察航线上气旋大风过程统计分析

综合使用“雪龙”号走航气象观测数据、SeaSpace极轨卫星云图、ERA-Interim再分析数据，研究了中国第19～34次南极考察航线上由南大洋气旋导致的气旋大风过程，分析了其发生数量及时间间隔、强度和空间分布等特征，探讨了气旋大风发生间隔与南极涛动的关系。南大洋气旋对中国南极考察航线影响频繁且强烈，气旋大风过程数量与航次时长呈显著正相关，平均而言每个航次出现约18(4)次气旋大风过程(强过程)，平均每间隔6.5(30)天就出现一次；气旋大风过程中，过程风速平均达8级，最大可达12级。但气旋大风过程的数量、发生时间间隔、最大风速都存在较为明显的航次差异。气旋大风过程时间间隔与南半球夏季南极涛动指数呈负相关，且对于发生在55°S以南的过程负相关更为显著；南极涛动通过调整中高纬度风压带强弱,并影响气旋活动数量和活动区域，进而影响考察航线上气旋大风过程发生数量和频率。气旋大风过程可以发生在南大洋和极区内的任意航段，其中以45°～60°S绕极西风带内发生最为频繁，尤其易出现在气旋中心及其北侧与副热带高压配合产生的强梯度风区内。在4个重点考察海域中，由于阿蒙森低压的存在，阿蒙森海气旋大风过程和强过程发生最为频繁，其次是南极半岛海域，而普里兹湾和罗斯海气旋大风过程频率明显低于前两个海域，由于罗斯海最为偏南，不易受到气旋大风过程影响。     

Circumpolar connections between Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba Dana) populations: Investigating the roles of ocean and sea ice transport

Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba Dana, has a heterogeneous circumpolar distribution in the Southern Ocean. Krill have a close association with sea ice which provides access to a critical food source and shelter, particularly in the early life stages. Advective modelling of transport pathways of krill have until now been on regional scales and have not taken explicit account of sea ice. Here we present Lagrangian modelling studies at the circumpolar scale that include interaction with sea ice. The advection scheme uses ocean velocity output from the Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling (OCCAM) project model together with satellite-derived sea ice motion vectors to examine the potential roles of the ocean and sea ice in maintaining the observed circumpolar krill distribution. We show that the Antarctic Coastal Current is likely to be important in generating the large-scale distribution and that sea ice motion can substantially modify the ocean transport pathways, enhancing retention or dispersal depending upon location. Within the major krill region of the Scotia Sea, the effect of temporal variability in both the ocean and sea ice velocity fields is examined. Variability in sea ice motion increases variability of influx to South Georgia, at times concentrating the influx into pulses of arrival. This variability has implications for the ecosystem around the island. The inclusion of sea ice motion leads to the identification of source regions for the South Georgia krill populations additional to those identified when only ocean motion is considered. This study indicates that the circumpolar oceanic circulation and interaction with sea ice is important in determining the large-scale distribution of krill and its associated variability.     

基于最大熵模型模拟西印度洋剑鱼栖息地的时空分布

剑鱼（Xiphias gladius）是一种高度洄游性鱼类,其迁徙和栖息地利用受海洋环境影响明显,理解其空间分布格局形成的机制对于资源的养护和管理具有重要意义。本研究利用2017?2019年中国印度洋延绳钓渔业观察员数据中剑鱼的渔获物信息作为物种出现数据,结合西印度洋海域的海表温度、海面高度、叶绿素a浓度、混合层深度、海表盐度等环境数据,采用最大熵模型对剑鱼的栖息地适宜性分布进行了模拟。结果表明:（1）模型对印度洋西部剑鱼栖息地适宜性分布的模拟精度非常高,各个季节受试者工作特征曲线的曲线下面积都大于0.9,可用于模拟剑鱼潜在的栖息地适宜性分布;（2）研究区域内剑鱼适宜栖息地分布变化与实际作业位置变动基本一致,干季和湿季剑鱼栖息地高适宜性的区域分布都较为集中,但湿季分布范围要大于干季;（3）海表温度、海表盐度和混合层深度是影响西印度洋剑鱼栖息地适宜性分布的重要环境因子,在干季和湿季的最适范围分别为25.8～31.6℃、34.4～35.9、0.1～24.9 m和25.6～30.5℃、34.8～36.4、13.1～54.1 m。研究结果可为西印度洋海域剑鱼种群的可持续利用和科学管理提供必要参考信息。     

大西洋热带海域长鳍金枪鱼渔场预报模型的比较

为提高大西洋热带海域长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)渔场预报的准确率,对K最近邻(k nearest neighbor,KNN)、逻辑斯蒂回归(logistic regression,LR)、决策与分类树(classfication and regression tree,CART)、梯度提升决策树(gr...     

海冰对南极磷虾（Euphausua superba）资源丰度的影响

利用1997-2008年南极磷虾产量及各月南极海冰面积数据,分析南极磷虾产量的时空分布,以及海冰对南极磷虾资源丰度的影响。结果表明,近年来南极磷虾年平均产量在11万t左右,主要来自48渔区,渔汛期为3—7月。但不同渔区（48．1区、48．2区和48．3区）在不同年份和季节,其产量和CPUE均有明显差异。分析认为,48区...     

Western Indian Ocean SST signal and anomalous Antarctic sea-ice concentration variation

Teleconnection between El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and anomalous Antarctic sea-ice variation has been studied extensively.In this study,impacts of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean on Antarctic sea-ice change were investigated during Janaury 1979 and October 2009.Based on previous research results,sea areas in the western Indian Ocean (WIO;50°–70°E,10 °–20 °S) are selected for the resreach.All variables showed 1-10 year interannual timescales by Fast Founer Tranaform (FFT) transformation.Results show that i) strong WIO signals emerged in the anomalous changes of Antarctic sea-ice concentration;ii) significant positive correlations occurred around the Antarctic Peninsula,Ross Sea and its northwest peripheral sea region iii) negative correlation occurred in the Indian Ocean section of the Southern Ocean,Amundsen Seas,and the sea area over northern Ross Sea;and iv) the atmospheric anomalies associated with the WIO including wind,meridional heat flux,and surface air temperature over southern high latitudes were the possible factors for the teleconnection.     

Sea surface temperature predictability in the North Pacific from multi-model seasonal forecast

Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to estimate the possibility of climate events than individual models. Hence, we assessed SST predictability in the North Pacific (NP) from multi-model seasonal forecasts. We used 23 years of hindcast data from three seasonal forecasting systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service to estimate the prediction skill based on temporal correlation. We evaluated the predictability of the SST from the ensemble members' width spread, and co-variability between the ensemble mean and observation. Our analysis revealed that areas with low prediction skills were related to either the large spread of ensemble members or the ensemble members not capturing the observation within their spread. The large spread of ensemble members reflected the high forecast uncertainty, as exemplified in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region in July. The ensemble members not capturing the observation indicates the model bias; thus, there is room for improvements in model prediction. On the other hand, the high prediction skills of the multi-model were related to the small spread of ensemble members that captures the observation, as in the central NP in January. Such high predictability is linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection.