基于CMIP5模拟预估21世纪珠江三角洲地区由于海平面上升而导致的淹没区面积

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level(GMSL) change and the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD)sea level change is calculated: an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m(uncertainty interval from1.25 to 1.46 m) increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios(representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006–2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29(0.21 to 0.40) m under RCP2.6, 0.31(0.22 to 0.42) m under RCP4.5, and 0.34(0.25 to 0.46) m under RCP8.5, respectively.By 2100, it will rise 0.59(0.36 to 0.88) m, 0.71(0.47 to 1.02) m, and 1.0(0.68 to 1.41) m, respectively. In addition,considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence(i.e., 0.20 m) and that obtained from intermonthly variability(i.e., 0.33 m), the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5scenario with the upper uncertainty level(i.e., 1.41 m). Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57×103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.     

海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响

基于中国沿海10个验潮站资料,利用皮尔森Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)模型探讨了典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景下21世纪海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响。结果表明:海平面上升将显著缩短极值水位的重现期。在RCP8.5情景下极值水位的重现期缩短最为显著。预估到2050年,在RCP8.5情景下,所研究的中国沿海地区潮位站的百年一遇极值水位将变为9~43 a一遇。到2100年,在RCP8.5情景下,百年一遇极值水位变为1~18 a一遇。当前极值水位的低概率事件将在2100年变得普遍,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年千年一遇的几乎每两百年发生一次。由于极值水位的重现期会随着气候变化而缩短,未来沿海地区将会面临更严峻的风险与挑战。     

The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)

In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions.     

海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对厦门海域极值水位的影响及危险性预估

气候变化背景下海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对我国东南沿海地区的洪涝灾害影响日益严重,为应对气候变化的影响,本文以位于我国东南沿海的厦门地区为例,应用多种海洋大气观测资料和数理统计及模拟方法,分析了历史上9914号和1614号两次台风对厦门海域极端海面高度(极值水位)的影响,预估了未来海平面上升情景下厦门海域极值水位的变化及其危险性。结果表明:(1) 9914号台风期间,天文大潮、风暴增水和强降水的同时出现造成了厦门沿海地区超警戒极值水位(732 cm)的出现;(2) 风(向岸强风)、雨(强降水)、浪(巨浪)、潮(高潮位)、流(急流)等多致灾因子的共同作用是厦门沿海地区发生严重灾情的重要原因;(3) 在温室气体中等和高排放(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下,到2050年(2100年),当前百年一遇的极值水位将分别变为30年(2年)一遇(RCP4.5)和25年(低于1年)一遇(RCP8.5)的频繁极端事件。这表明未来厦门沿海极值水位的危险性将显著上升,应采取充分的适应措施降低洪涝灾害风险。     

A probability distribution for depth-limited extreme wave heights in a sea state

A model for the depth-limited distribution of the highest wave in a sea state is presented. The distribution for the extreme wave height is based on a probability density function (pdf) for depth-limited wave height distribution for individual waves [Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. 2004. Transformation model of wave height distribution. Coastal Eng, Vol. 50, 97:115.] and considers the correlation between consecutive waves. The model is validated using field data showing a good representation of the extreme wave heights in the surf zone. Some important statistical wave heights are parameterized obtaining useful expressions that can be used in further calculations.     

Wave height parameter for damage description of rubble-mound breakwaters

In this paper it will be shown that the wave height parameter H₅₀, defined as the average wave height of the 50 highest waves reaching a rubble-mound breakwater in its useful life, can describe the effect of the wave height on the history of the armor damage caused by the wave climate during the structure's usable life.Using Thompson and Shuttler (Thompson, D.M., Shuttler, R.M., 1975. Riprap design for wind wave attack: A laboratory study on random waves. HRS Wallingford, Report 61, UK) data it will be shown that H₅₀ is the wave parameter that best represents the damage evolution with the number of waves in a sea state. Using this H₅₀ parameter, formulae as van der Meer (van der Meer, J.W., 1988. Rock slopes and gravel beaches under wave attack. PhD Thesis. Technical University of Delft) and Losada and Giménez-Curto (Losada, M.A., Gimenez–Curto, L.A., 1979. The joint effect of the wave height and period on the stability of rubble mound breakwaters using Iribarren's number. Coastal Engineering, 3, 77–96) are transformed into sea-state damage evolution formulae. Using these H₅₀-transformed formulae for regular and irregular sea states it will be shown how damage predictions are independent of the sea state wave height distribution.To check the capability of these H₅₀-formulae to predict damage evolution of succession of sea states with different wave height distributions, some stability tests with regular and irregular waves have been carried out. After analysing the experimental results, it will be shown how H₅₀-formulae can predict the observed damage independently of the sea state wave height distribution or the succession of sea states.     

未来海平面上升对江苏沿海水利工程的影响

研究探讨表明,未来海平面上升将导致江苏沿海水利工程本身风险性的显著增大,表现为工程遭受破坏程度的增强和受到破坏次数的指数性增多。海面上升还严重影响苏北沿海水利工程效用的发挥,表现为海堤防护标准的降低,抗御风暴潮的能力减少,以及沿海挡潮闸排水能力的降低,加剧这一地区的洪涝灾害。最后,为减轻未来海平面上升对苏北沿海水利工程造成的不利影响,提出了一些看法和建议。     

不同气候情景下中国滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期预估

气候变化背景下,海平面上升叠加台风—风暴潮、天文大潮等产生的海岸极值水位事件趋多增强,对我国滨海城市社会经济可持发展构成了严重威胁。为认识未来我国滨海城市海岸极值水位危害性（强度和频率）的变化,本文首先采用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）数据,分析了不同气候情景下（RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5,简称为RCPs）下,未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国滨海城市沿岸海平面变化幅度;其次,基于沿海验潮站的历史观测资料和文献数据,分析了未来热带气旋强度变化对海岸极值水位的影响;最后,利用皮尔逊Ⅲ型（P-Ⅲ）水文概率曲线方法,预估了不同气候（RCPs）情景下未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国9个滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期的变化。结果表明：（1）在不同气候情景下,我国滨海城市沿海平均海平面均呈现上升趋势,其中,到21世纪末,长三角地区沿海海平面上升幅度最大,上升速度比全国平均高出约30%;（2）热带气旋的强度与台风—风暴潮的增水幅度存在正相关关系。预计到21世纪末,热带气旋的整体强度很可能将增强,热带气旋引发的台风—风暴潮的增水幅度较当前很可能有明显提高。（3）未来我国滨海城市沿海极值水位将有显著增高的趋势,当前极值水位的重现期将明显缩短。到21世纪末,我国滨海城市当前百年一遇的极值水位,重现期几乎都将缩短至20年一遇以下,其中,大连、青岛、上海和厦门等城市海岸极值水位重现期很可能缩短为（或低于）1年一遇。本文虽在一定程度上反映了不同气候情景下海岸洪水危害性的变化,但对于未来热带气旋的变化及其影响的研究尚有待进一步深入。     

Coupling winds to ocean surface currents over the global ocean

A Wind stress–Current Coupled System (WCCS) consisting of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and an improved wind stress algorithm based on Donelan et al. [Donelan, W.M., Drennan, Katsaros, K.B., 1997. The air–sea momentum flux in mixed wind sea and swell conditions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27, 2087–2099] is developed by using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The WCCS is applied to the global ocean to study the interactions between the wind stress and the ocean surface currents. In this study, the ocean surface current velocity is taken into consideration in the wind stress calculation and air–sea heat flux calculation. The wind stress that contains the effect of ocean surface current velocity will be used to force the HYCOM. The results indicate that the ocean surface velocity exerts an important influence on the wind stress, which, in turn, significantly affects the global ocean surface currents, air–sea heat fluxes, and the thickness of ocean surface boundary layer. Comparison with the TOGA TAO buoy data, the sea surface temperature from the wind–current coupled simulation showed noticeable improvement over the stand-alone HYCOM simulation.     

2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响

使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料,详细分析了2016年中国沿海海平面显著升高的成因及影响。分析结果表明:（1）2012-2016年,中国沿海海平面处于准2 a、4 a、准9 a和准19 a周期振荡的高位,几个周期振荡高位叠加,对该时段海平面上升起了一定的作用;（2）2016年,中国沿海气温和海温较1993-2011年的平均值分别高0.7℃与0.5℃,均处于1980年以来高位;气压较1993-2011年的平均值低0.2 hPa;（3）2016年4月、9月、10月和11月,中国沿海海平面均达到1980年以来同期高位,这4个月的风场距平值在东海以南均明显偏大,且以偏南向和向岸风为主,风生流使得海水向岸堆积,沿海长时间以增水为主,对当月局部海平面上升的贡献率达到40%~80%;（4）2016年,中国沿海降水总体偏多,局部区域降水量达到历史同期最高,加上沿海径流量的增加,对沿海局部海平面升高有一定贡献;（5）2016年9-10月,有5个台风相继影响我国南部沿海,持续的风暴潮增水导致台风影响期间的海平面高于当月平均海平面70~360 mm,风暴潮和洪涝灾害给当地造成直接经济损失超过30亿元。     

Response to reply by J.P. Le Roux

In the response given by Le Roux [Le Roux, J.P., 2008. A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different deepwater wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes — Reply to discussion by M.C. Haller and P.C. Catalan, Coast. Eng. 55, 185–188] to the discussion of Haller and Catalán [Haller, M.C., Catalan, P.A., 2008. Discussion of “A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different deepwater wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes”, by J.P. Le Roux [Coastal Engineering 54 (2007) 271–277], Coast. Eng. 55, 181–184], the author presents a defense of the large number of inconsistencies/errors that we pointed out in regards to the earlier work of Le Roux [Le, Roux, J.P., 2007. A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes, Coast. Eng. 54, 271–277]. We appreciate the response for the fact that it further clarifies the lines of reasoning used in the previous work. Unfortunately, we are not convinced by the defenses offered and still posit that the original work contains many inconsistencies and downright calculation errors. We try to avoid repetition herein, and instead of rehashing all of the points made in our previous discussion, we will concentrate on a few fundamental problems that undermine the whole premise of the original paper. We feel it is important to make these clear to the readers of Coastal Engineering.     

Neural network modelling of wave overtopping at coastal structures

A method has been developed to estimate wave overtopping discharges for a wide range of coastal structures. The prediction method is based on Neural Network modelling. For this purpose use is made of a data set obtained from a large number of physical model tests (collected within the framework of the European project CLASH, see e.g. [Steendam, G.J., Van der Meer, J.W., Verhaeghe, H., Besley, P., Franco, L. and Van Gent, M.R.A. (2004). The international database on wave overtopping. World Scientific, Proc. 29th ICCE, vol. 4, pp. 4301–4313, Lisbon, Portugal.]). Moreover, a method was developed to obtain confidence intervals for the overtopping predictions of the neural network.     

Cobalt, manganese, and iron near the Hawaiian Islands: A potential concentrating mechanism for cobalt within a cyclonic eddy and implications for the hybrid-type trace metals

The vertical distributions of cobalt, iron, and manganese in the water column were studied during the E-Flux Program (E-Flux II and III), which focused on the biogeochemistry of cold-core cyclonic eddies that form in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands. During E-Flux II (January 2005) and E-Flux III (March 2005), 17 stations were sampled for cobalt (n=147), all of which demonstrated nutrient-like depletion in surface waters. During E-Flux III, two depth profiles collected from within a mesoscale cold-core eddy, Cyclone Opal, revealed small distinct maxima in cobalt at 100 m depth and a larger inventory of cobalt within the eddy. We hypothesize that this was due to a cobalt concentrating effect within the eddy, where upwelled cobalt was subsequently associated with sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) via biological activity and was released at a depth coincident with nearly complete POC remineralization [Benitez-Nelson, C., Bidigare, R.R., Dickey, T.D., Landry, M.R., Leonard, C.L., Brown, S.L., Nencioli, F., Rii, Y.M., Maiti, K., Becker, J.W., Bibby, T.S., Black, W., Cai, W.J., Carlson, C.A., Chen, F., Kuwahara, V.S., Mahaffey, C., McAndrew, P.M., Quay, P.D., Rappe, M.S., Selph, K.E., Simmons, M.P., Yang, E.J., 2007. Mesoscale eddies drive increased silica export in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Science 316, 1017–1020]. There is also evidence for the formation of a correlation between cobalt and soluble reactive phosphorus during E-Flux III relative to the E-Flux II cruise that we suggest is due to increased productivity, implying a minimum threshold of primary production below which cobalt–phosphate coupling does not occur. Dissolved iron was measured in E-Flux II and found in somewhat elevated concentrations (0.5 nM) in surface waters relative to the iron depleted waters of the surrounding Pacific [Fitzwater, S.E., Coale, K.H., Gordon, M.R., Johnson, K.S., Ondrusek, M.E., 1996. Iron deficiency and phytoplankton growth in the equatorial Pacific. Deep-Sea Research II 43 (4–6), 995–1015], possibly due to island effects associated with the iron-rich volcanic soil from the Hawaiian Islands and/or anthropogenic inputs. Distinct depth maxima in total dissolved cobalt were observed at 400–600 m depth, suggestive of the release of metals from the shelf area of comparable depth that surrounds these islands.     

Seasonal and daily variation of mercury evasion at coastal and off shore sites from the Mediterranean Sea

Dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) was measured continuously using two newly developed techniques and a manual technique. The continuous techniques were based on the equilibrium between the aqueous and gaseous phase (DGM = Hg_extr / H', Hg_extr is the measured mercury concentration in the gas phase, H' is the Henry's Law coefficient at the desired temperature). In order to calculate the annual mercury evasion from the Mediterranean Sea, diurnal and seasonal measurements of DGM, total gaseous mercury in air (TGM), water temperature and wind speed were performed. During August 2003, March–April 2004 and October–November 2004 measurements of these parameters were conducted on board the RV Urania. The continuous measurements of DGM showed a diurnal variation in concentration, at both coastal and off shore sites, with higher concentrations during daytime than nighttime. The concentration difference could be as large as 130 fM between day and night. The degree of saturation was calculated directly from the measurements, S = Hg_extr / TGM and was found to vary between the different seasons. The highest average degree of saturation (850%) and the largest variation in saturation (600–1150%) was observed during the summer. The spring showed the lowest variation (260–360%) and the lowest average degree of saturation (320%). The autumn also showed a large variation in saturation (500–1070%) but a lower average (740%) compared to the summer cruise. This might be explained by the temperature difference between the different seasons, since that parameter varied the most. The flux from the sea surface was calculated using the gas exchange model developed by Nightingale et al. [Nightingale, P.D., Malin, G., Law, C.S., Watson, A.J., Liss, P.S., Liddicoat, M.I., Boutin, J., Upstill-Goddard, R. C., 2000. In situ evaluation of air–sea gas exchange parameterization using novel conservative and volatile tracers. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14(1):373–387]. The evasion varied between the different seasons with the highest evasion during the autumn, 24.6 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1. The summer value was estimated to 22.3 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1 and the spring to 7.6 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1. Using this data the yearly evasion from the Mediterranean Sea surface was estimated to 77 tons.     

海平面上升情景下辽东湾海岸侵蚀及影响评估

基于海洋站潮位观测和中国沿海海平面变化影响调查等数据,分析了辽东湾沿岸海平面变化及海岸侵蚀状况,并定量评估了未来海平面上升情景下,辽东湾两岸典型沙质海岸侵蚀影响和沙滩养护投入。分析预测和评估结果表明:1980-2017年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升速率为3.0 mm/a,其中辽东湾东岸沿海海平面上升速率明显高于西岸。2009-2017年,辽宁营口白沙湾、绥中网户、绥中南山港和绥中团山气象观测场岸段后退和下蚀较为严重,部分岸段滩肩蚀退达2～3 m/a。预计2100年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升幅度在20～48 cm之间,由海平面上升引发的辽东湾海岸侵蚀土地损失为23.1 km2,土地经济损失为1410万元。为减缓海岸侵蚀,旅游沙滩和一般沙滩养护总投入分别为11亿元和46亿元,全岸段养护成本较高,应选取旅游沙滩等重点岸段进行养护。     

Hydrogeological changes in coastal aquifers due to sea level rise

Global warming and climatic changes can lead to sea level rise (SLR) of dozens of cms over up-coming decades, along with groundwater permanent reserve losses (PRL). This study focuses on understanding the processes and estimating groundwater losses. A case study for such phenomena is Israel's Coastal aquifer. PRL estimation methodology is based upon a simple hydrogeological conceptual model. The results lead to estimation of two main components of an aquifer's PRL, and to key factors that can enhance or mitigate these losses. Such recommended measures as high-resolution topographic mapping and improved monitoring of sea level have been noted.     

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areas along China's coast

I~IOXThe sea level rise threatens China's coastal plains and river deltas and makes them the vulnerable areas due to their loW elevation.Since the 1980s, the Chinese scientists have paid great attention to the problem of the sealevel rise caused by the global warming. They have analyZed and calculated the trend of the relative sea level change along the China's coast in the past 50 a. The result of study shows that therising rate of the sea level along China's coast is (1. 7 i 0. 3) rum/a.…     

Structuring factors and recent changes in subtidal macrozoobenthic communities of a coastal lagoon, Arcachon Bay (France)

Sediment stability in the shallow Venice Lagoon was investigated by means of numerical modelling. Results from a hydrodynamic model allowed for the determination of the wave climate and bottom effective parameters so that simulations with a Lagrangian model for suspended particulate matter could be performed. A spring–neap cycle in summer 1998 was chosen as integration period since data for calibration and verification were collected within the European project F-ECTS between summer 1998 and spring 1999. Deposition on shallow mud flats as well as short term erosion during a strong wind event were reproduced and mass balances for two areas computed. A relation of patterns of SPM in the water and in the sediment was found and can be ascribed to the displacement of material during storm events from shallow areas to the bottom of very small channels. Assuming about 10 to 14 storm events during the year comparable to the Bora event during the integration time, estimates for long-term trends of sediment loss on shallow flats by Day et al. [Day, J.W., Rybczyk, J., Scarton, F., Rismondo, A., Are, D., Cecconi, G., 1999. Soil accretionary dynamics, sea-level rise and the survival of wetlands in Venice Lagoon: a field and modelling approach. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 49, 607–628] are met by the simulation results. Evidently, long-term sediment evolution of the lagoon is therefore not dominated by the average (residual) processes that occur in the lagoon, but by the few peak events that happen randomly over the year.     

气候变暖与海平面上升

本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0．2F°（0．11℃）为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO。含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段（暖期）。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为＋1．52±0．27mm／a及相对海平面升降速率为＋1．39±0．26mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。