VARIABILITY OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN CHINA(1980-1993):PCA AND WAVELET ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATION AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATA

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EVALUATION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN CHINA FROM ECMWF AND NCEP REANALYSES

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Influence of the Convection over the South China Sea on the Summer Precipitation of Shandong Province

1　Introduction　ShandongProvince ,whichislocatedintheeastofChina ,consistspartlyofpeninsulaandpartlyofinlandwithatotalareaofabout 1 5 0 0 0 0km2 .Lyingfrom34°2 0′Nto 38°2 0′Nandfrom 1 1 4°4 0′Eto 1 2 2°4 0′E ,alltheareabelongstothemoderateregionandtothetypicalAsianmonsoonclimate .SoShandong’ssum merprecipitationaccountsforover 6 0 %oftheannualrainfall,andaccordinglyflood droughtdisastersmain lyoccurinsummer.Moreover,becauseitisgeographi callylocatedinthetransitionalareabetweenthe…     

Rainfall occurrence and its relation to flood damage in China from 2000 to 2015

China is highly susceptible to flood disasters and subjected to great damage every year. Furthermore, the flood frequency has exhibited an increasing trend in recent years. Most flood events, including flash floods and river flood, are induced by rainfall. This study investigates annual variations of rainfall occurrence over China during the period from 2000 to 2015 at the national and regional scale using daily rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Mann-Kendall test is performed for trend detection, and statistical data of flood damage published by China’s government, including destroyed crop area, damaged buildings, direct economic loss, percentage of GDP (gross domestic product), and death toll are correlatively analysed with rainfall occurrences. The results show that storm rain events show the greatest variation among three rainfall types (moderate rain, heavy rain and storm rain). The variation coefficients of rainfall over Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are the highest, whereas that for Southwest China is the smallest. Moderate rain, heavy rain over Central China, and moderate rain over Southwest China exhibits decreasing trends, whereas the remaining exhibit increasing trends. The correlation between the rainfall occurrences and these flood damage indices at the national scale shows that only direct economic loss has a strong positive correlation with rainfall occurrences, and the other indices have weaker correlations. The correlation is strong in three north regions, except for death toll in Northwest China. In contrast, the correlation between flood damage and rainfall is weak in East China, Central China, Southwest China, and South China. Overall, death toll is strongly correlated with the number of damaged buildings, implying that flood fatalities in China are likely associated with building collapse, and are dominated by specific extreme events. This study can provide a scientific reference for flood management in China.     

Damage pattern recognition of spatially distributed slope damages and rainfall using optimal GIS mesh dimensions

Damage assessment for slopes using geographical information system （GIS） has been actively carried out by researchers working on several government organizations and research institutes in Korea. In this study, 596 slope damages were examined to identify the types of damage associated with dip angles, dip directions, and heavy rainfall resulting from typhoons in South Korea. Heavy rainfall of 100 mm to 300 mm resulted in 80% at the investigated slope damages. A GIS database was developed for highways, rainfall, soil or rock geometry, and types of damage. A grid of rainfall intensity was generated from the records of maximum daily rainfall. Contours for slope damages and heavy rainfall using optimal GIS mesh dimensions were generated to visualize damage patterns and show substantially strong correlation of rainfall with slope damages. The combination of remote sensing with the GIS pattern recognition process described in this work are being expanded for a new generation of emergency response and rapid decision support systems.     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

Wet Canopy Evaporation Rate of Three Stands in Western Sichuan, China

The wet canopy evaporation rate (Er) was calculated by Penman-Monteith combination model based on three assumptions and with meteorological variables 2 m above the canopy in three stands, dominated by spruce (SF), fir (FF) and birch (BF) trees, respectively, in the subalpine forests in western Sichuan, China over a growing season. The total amount of the E was 44.5 mm for SF, 88.5 mm for FF and 57.8 mm for BF, accounting for 9.2%, 16.6% and 10.2% of the gross rainfall, respectively, in the measuring period. There was the highest average monthly Er and percentage of E to gross rainfall for FF compared with SF and BF.Mean Er was 0.097 mm h^-1 (ranging from 0.028 to0.487 mm h^-1), 0.242 mm h^-1 (from 0.068 to 0.711 mm h^-1) and 0.149 mm h^-1 (from 0.060 to 0.576 mm h^-1) for SF, FF and BF, respectively. The highest average monthly Er occurred in June was 0.120 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.317 mm h^-1for FF and 0.169 mm h^-1 for BF, and the lowest value in October was 0.083 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.187 mm h^-1 for FF and 0.101 mm h^-1 for BF, respectively. The averages of Er from 8:00 to16:00 were significantly higher than those from 0:00 to 8:00 and from 16:00 to 0:00 for the three stands. The marked daily and monthly differences of Er were contributable to the variations of solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity above the canopy.     

PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN FLOOD SEASON OVER CHINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NI■O/SOUTHERN OSCILIATION

I.I~IOXENds(EINabs/SouthernOscillation)eventsaretheintensivesignalsofair-seainteractionintropicalarea.PlentyOfresultsfromdifferentresearchersshoWthattheENdssignalcanbedetectedoninterannualvallationsoflargescaleatmOSPhericcirculationandclimateregimeSovermostpartsoftheworld.SeveralkindsofrelationShipbetweenENdsandprecipitationoverChinahavebeenrevealedbydifferentreSearcherS,buttherearemanydifferencesamongthepublishedreSults.Itmayberesulted*fromthatdifferentreSearchersuseddifferentindic…     

PRIMARY ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT AND WATERLOGGING LAW IN NORTH CHINA

According to the drought and waterlogging disaster statistics over the last 30 years (1950-1979), the annual average area suffering from drought was about 300 million mu (1 mu= 1/ 15 ha) in the whole country, among which about 100 million mu were disastrous areas where the output reduced more than 30%. and the annual lost grains totalled about 5 billion kg. The waterlogging disaster was less than drought disaster. The area suffering from waterlogging was about 100 million mu, among which 60 million mu were disastrous. Drought and waterlogging disasters affect directly the development of the national economy. So it is important to study drought and waterlogging variations, especially the drought and waterlogging variation laws of the areas where the disasters frequently occur.The historical literatures and recent observation data reveal the fact that there existed drought and waterlogging variations. For example, the occurrence frequency of the outstanding and severe drought years in north China is highe     

Spatial Variability and Cartography of Maximum Annual Daily Rainfall under Different Return Periods in Northern Algeria

The estimation of precipitation quantiles has always been an area of great importance to meteorologists, hydrologists, planners and managers of hydrotechnical infrastructures. In many cases, it is necessary to estimate the values relating to extreme events for the sites where there is little or no measurement, as well as their return periods. A statistical approach is the most used in such cases. It aims to find the probability distribution that best fits the maximum daily rainfall values. In our study, 231 rainfall stations were used to regionalize and find the best distribution for modeling the maximum daily rainfall in Northern Algeria. The L-moments method was used to perform a regionalization based on discordance criteria and homogeneity test. It gave rise to twelve homogeneous regions in terms of LCoefficient of variation(L-CV), L-Skewness(L-CS) and L-Kurtosis(L-CK). This same technique allowed us to select the regional probability distribution for each group using the Z statistic. The generalized extreme values distribution(GEV) was selected to model the maximum daily rainfall of 10 groups located in the north of the steppe region and the generalized logistic distribution(GLO) for groups representing the steppes of Central and Western Algeria. The study of uncertainty by the bias and RMSE showed that the regional approach is acceptable. We have also developed maximum daily rainfall maps for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years return periods. We relied on a network of 255 rainfall stations. The spatial variability of quantiles was evaluated by semi-variograms. All rainfall frequency models have a spatial dependence with an exponential model adjusted to the experimental semi-variograms. The parameters of the fitted semi-variogram for different return periods are similar, throughout, while the nugget is more important for high return periods. Maximum daily rainfall increases from South to North and from West to East, and is more significant in the coastal areas of eastern Algeria where it exceeds 170 mm for a return period of 100 years. However, it does not exceed 50 mm in the highlands of the west.     

Post-earthquake Rainfall-triggered Slope Stability Analysis in the Lushan Area

The "4.20" Lushan earthquake in Sichuan province, China has induced a large amount of geological hazards and produced abundant loose materials which are prone to post-earthquake rainfalltriggered landslides. A detailed landslide inventory was acquired through post-earthquake emergent field investigation and high resolution remote sensing interpretation. The rainfall analysis was conducted using historical rainfall records during the period from 1951 to 2010. Results indicate that the average annual rainfall distribution is heterogeneous and the largest average annual rainfall occurs in Yucheng district. The Stability Index MAPping(SINMAP)model was adopted to assess and analyze the postearthquake slope stability under different rainfall scenarios(light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorm). The model parameters were calibrated to reflect the significant influence of strong earthquakes on geological settings. The slope stability maps triggered by different rainfall scenarios wereproduced at a regional scale. The effect of different rainfall conditions on the slope stability is discussed.The expanding trend of the unstable area was quantitatively assessed with the different critical rainfall intensity. They provide a new insight into the spatial distribution and characteristics of postearthquake rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lushan seismic area. An increase of rainfall intensity results in a significant increase of unstable area. The heterogeneous distribution of slope instability is strongly correlated with the distribution of earthquake intensity in spite of different rainfall conditions. The results suggest that the both seismic intensity and rainfall are two crucial factors for postearthquake slope stability. This study provides important references for landslide prevention and mitigation in the Lushan area after earthquake.     

Debris flow warning threshold based on antecedent rainfall: A case study in Jiangjia Ravine, Yunnan, China

Debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine in Yunnan province,China are not only triggered by intense storms but also by short-duration and low-intensity rainfalls.This reflects the significance of antecedent rainfall.This paper tries to find the debris flowtriggering threshold by considering antecedent rainfall through a case study in Jiangjia Ravine.From 23 debris flow events,the I-D(Intensity-Duration) threshold was found,which is very close to the line of 95th percentile regression line of rainfall events,representing that 95% of rainfalls can potentially induce debris flows and reflects the limitation of I-D threshold application in this area.Taking into account the effect of antecedent rainfall,the debris flowtriggering threshold for rainfall quantity and intensity is statistically and empirically derived.The relationships can be used in debris flow warning system as key thresholds.Coupling with the rainfall characteristics in this area,new thresholds are proposed as triggering and warning thresholds.     

Recent changes of Northern Indian Ocean summer rainfall based on CMIP5 multi-model

This study evaluates the simulation of summer rainfall changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) based on the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs of 20 CMIP5 coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) are analyzed. The Multi-Model ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 models well reproduces the general feature of NIO summer rainfall. For a short period 1979–2005, 14 out of 20 models show an increased trend in the mean rainfall and a similar spatial distribution to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations in MME. The increasing of the convergence in the equatorial IO results in the increase of rainfall significantly. The equatorial rainfall trend patterns seem modulated by the SST warming in the tropical Indian Ocean, which confirm the mechanism of ‘warmer-get-wetter’ theory. For a long period 1950–2005, the trend of monsoon rainfall over India shows a decrease over the most parts of the India except an increase over the south corn er of the Indian Peninsula, due to a weakened summer monsoon circulation. The pattern is well simulated in half of the CMIP5 models. The rainfall over the north India is different for a short period, in which rainfall increases in 1979–2005, implying possible decadal variation in the NIO summer climate.     

Characteristics of diffuse pollution of nitrogen and phosphorous from a small town in the hilly area of the central Sichuan Basin,China

Hydrological and hydro-chemical monitoring of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in a small urbanized catchment was conducted in the hilly area of the central Sichuan Basin, China, from 2010 through 2011. The diffuse N and P loadings in different forms of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP), dissolved nitrogen (DN) and phosphorus (DP), as well as particulate nitrogen (PN) and phosphorus (PP) were calculated based on runoff discharges and chemical analyses. The results revealed that the diffuse pollution concentrations of TN, DN, PN, TP, DP and PP exhibited large variations during rainfall events, with peak concentrations occurring during the initial period. For all of the measured parameters, the event mean concentrations (EMCs) were observed to clearly vary among rainfall events. The EMCs of TN, DN, PN, TP, DP and PP (for all of the observed rainfall events) were 10.04, 6.62, 3.42, 1.30, 0.47 and 0.83 mg/L, respectively. The losses of diffuse N and P exhibited clear seasonal patterns and mainly occurred during the period from July through September, when the losses totaled 99.3 and 9.6 kg/ha for TN and TP, respectively, accounting for 75% and 74% of the total annual loadings. The mean annual loadings of TN and TP were 124.6 and 12.9 kg/ha, respectively. The results indicate that residential areas in the hilly area of the central Sichuan Basin are subject to high diffuse N and P loadings, posing a serious risk to the receiving water quality. Ecological buffering belts are recommended to incorporate into the urbanized catchment to reduce diffuse pollution.     

基于多源卫星遥感的暴雨灾情时空动态信息的提取

强暴雨淹没耕地形成灾害的同时,对耕地作物的生长也产生着极大的影响,而暴雨灾害对耕地作物生长的影响是一个渐变过程,需要由时空动态的观测进行监测。多源卫星遥感观测技术具有捕捉地面瞬间状态和刻画过程的优势。论文利用Terra/MODIS、Landsat和Sentinel卫星观测数据,挖掘多源卫星遥感观测数据,提出了一种利用NDVI变化的特征值进行灾情动态信息提取方法;并以2016年发生暴雨灾害的巢湖地区为实验区进行了方法的应用和讨论。结果表明,基于MODIS多时相NDVI变化结果提取的信息能够获得受灾害影响开始时期和持续时长等丰富的时空动态信息,根据这些信息可以统计得出大范围区域中受灾害影响的面积。另外,结合利用30 m和10 m的Landsat和Sentinel观测数据提取的水淹区,可为在暴雨致灾范围方面提供准确的参考信息。多源遥感作为评估灾情信息的依据之一,其获取的灾情动态信息能够为灾后耕地的恢复情况以及国家灾后损失评估和救助决策提供科学的数据依据。     

Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system: an example of application in Aizi Valley,China

In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Different warning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazard warnings. In addition to these warnings, community-based knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities.     

一种短基线硐体应变仪

实验发现,在硐体完整基岩1 m深处,日温度波动只有硐体空气中日温度波动的的百分之一左右.将1m基线的硐体应变仪,用自应力水泥耦合在硐体1 m深度的基岩槽中,可以提高硐体应变仪的稳定性和高频性能.     

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

Effect of rainfall on a colluvial landslide in a debris flow valley

A colluvial landslide in a debris flow valley is a typical phenomena and is easily influenced by rainfall. The direct destructiveness of this kind of landslide is small, however, if failure occurs the resulting blocking of the channel may lead to a series of magnified secondary hazards. For this reason it is important to investigate the potential response of this type of landslide to rainfall. In the present paper, the Goulingping landslide, one of the colluvial landslides in the Goulingping valley in the middle of the Bailong River catchment in Gansu Province, China, was chosen for the study. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), together with traditional monitoring methods, were used to monitor changes in water content and the deformation of the landslide caused by rainfall. ERT was used to detect changes in soil water content induced by rainfall. The most significant findings were as follows:(1) the water content in the centralupper part (0~41 m) of the landslide was greater than in the central-front part (41~84 m) and (2) there was a relatively high resistivity zone at depth within the sliding zone. The deformation characteristics at the surface of the landslide were monitored by TLS and the results revealed that rainstorms caused three types of deformation and failure: (1) gully erosion at the slope surface; (2) shallow sliding failure; (3) and slope foot erosion. Subsequent monitoring of continuous changes in pore-water pressure, soil pressure and displacement (using traditional methods) indicated that long duration light rainfall (average 2.22 mm/d) caused the entire landslide to enter a state of creeping deformation at the beginning of the rainy season. Shear-induced dilation occurred for the fast sliding (30.09 mm/d) during the critical failure sub-phase (EF). Pore-water pressure in the sliding zone was affected by rainfall. In addition, the sliding L1 parts of the landslide exerted a discontinuous pressure on the L2 part. Through the monitoring and analysis, we conclude that this kind of landslide may have large deformation at the beginning and the late of the rainy season.