一次低槽冷锋层状云系结构和过冷水分布特征的模拟研究

本文利用耦合了CAMS云微物理方案的WRF中尺度模式的模拟结果结合飞机、卫星、雷达、地面雨量等观测资料,对2012年9月25日山西一次低槽弱冷锋降水层状云系的宏微观结构和过冷水分布特征进行分析,试图研究低槽冷锋层状云系结构特征及过冷水形成的宏微观条件,为人工增雨作业提供依据。模拟的天气形势、降水、云顶温度、雷达回波、水成物的演变与实测基本一致。结果表明：此次降水过程的系统为低槽弱冷锋,且锋面后倾,位于锋前的云系前部为高层冷云,云顶温度-40℃左右,以冰相粒子组成,没有降水;锋区云系变成高层冷暖混合云,冷区以少量过冷水和大量冰相粒子组成,地面降水最大;处于锋后的云系后部为高层冷云,云顶温度-30℃左右,不存在过冷水,以较少冰相粒子组成,地面降水较弱。过冷水主要分布在锋面前方低于-5℃层,高度偏低、含量偏少,过冷水一方面因垂直上升速度供应水汽维持,另一方面因冰相粒子的凝华而消耗。过冷水层及其下部上升运动较弱、而其上部上升运动较强,不利于在过冷区长时间维持大量液态水,反而促使冰相粒子发展旺盛,此处水汽相对水面不饱和、相对冰面饱和,大量冰相粒子消耗水汽,不利于过冷水的存在,导致云场仅存在少量过冷水。本次过程中,冰核浓度的增大仅增大冰晶浓度,对雪霰含量及-5~0℃的过冷水几乎没有影响。     

河北一次降水层状云系结构和增雨条件的模拟研究

利用中尺度模式模拟结果和卫星、雷达、飞机、地面雨量站等观测资料,对2012年9月21日河北一次西风槽降水层状云系的宏微观结构和增雨条件进行了分析。结果表明:此次西风槽降水过程的影响系统为500 h Pa低槽和700 h Pa切变线,地面并没有伴随冷锋系统;西风槽云系不同部位具有不同云层性质和垂直结构特征,前端为高层冷云,云顶温度为-35℃,云体由冰相粒子和过冷水组成,没有暖云,有少量冷云降水;槽线附近云系为冷暖混合云,云顶温度为-20℃,云体最为密实,地面降水较强;槽后云系为低层液态水云,云顶温度为-5℃,有少量暖云降水;云水分布对应上升运动和高饱和区,高饱和区越深厚、上升运动越强,产生的云水值越大;利用模式过冷水含量、上升运动区、冰晶浓度、温度和逐时雨强对冷云催化增雨作业条件进行分析,槽线附近云系过冷水含量较多,存在强可播区,播撒高度为3.8~6.5 km,最适宜冷云播撒增雨作业。     

北京“7.21”特大暴雨云降水结构及云雨转化特征

利用多普勒雷达资料、FY-2E静止卫星和MODIS极轨卫星反演产品,研究2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的云降水结构及云雨转化特征。结果表明:降水过程三阶段的云降水垂直结构不同。1)在暖区对流降水阶段,降水以暖雨机制启动,雨滴在暖区存在深厚的碰并增长过程,暖雨过程对降水起主要贡献。随着云体的发展,冷雨过程加剧。T-Re分析表明,-10℃层以下云滴凝结碰并显著,-10℃层以上为深厚的冰相增长带,云顶以冰相大粒子为主,云水向雨水转化迅速。2)在锋面对流降水阶段,降水系统为高度组织化的"低质心"强降水液态MCC(Mesoscale Convective Complex)系统。回波强度在冰水混合层增长较快,冻结层是此阶段成雨微物理的关键层。降水粒子在暖云区碰并增长较快,而蒸发或破碎过程并不显著。3)在锋后降水阶段,0℃层附近冰晶粒子与云水的碰并增长较为明显。前期降水存在明显的雨滴蒸发过程。随着云体的发展,暖区云水含量较少,降水粒子不能有效碰并增长。     

一次基于飞机观测的低槽冷锋云系微物理结构的综合分析

针对2012年9月25日山西一次低槽冷锋层状云,组织有设计的飞机观测,通过斜飞、螺旋、分层探测等方式,实现对云微结构的精细观测,同时结合卫星、雷达、探空等资料进行该云系的综合分析。结果显示:1)本系统为冷暖混合层状云系,云中无明显夹层,云系宏、微观结构均匀、稳定,地面有明显降水。2)冷云区多为固态冰相粒子,以凝华增长为主,过冷水欠缺;小云粒子谱呈指数分布,大云粒子谱呈双峰分布,降水粒子谱呈三峰分布;云中相同高度的不同位置上,粒子谱型、浓度基本一致。3)暖云区大云粒子和降水粒子的谱宽较冷云区变窄,谱型由多峰变为单峰。随高度下降,降水粒子有效直径变大、浓度变小,其垂直分布同雷达回波的垂直剖面相吻合。4)地面降水主要是由冰相粒子增长造成,本次过程冰相粒子充分、过冷水缺乏,因此该层状云引晶催化的潜力较小。     

2018年青海人工增雨天气环流形势及作业条件统计分析

对2018年飞机人工增雨作业时的77个天气样本进行分析，以大气环流形势配合冷空气入侵青海的不同路径将人工增雨降水过程分为4种环流型：两槽一脊型、东高西低型、纬向环流型、横槽转竖型。作业云系以层状云和积层混合云为主；主要作业层风速在16 m·s^-1左右；作业层主导风向在230°~280°。雷达回波强度和雷达回波顶高在4种环流型中没有明显区别。卫星反演云顶高度中东高西低型云系平均发展较深厚，纬向环流型和横槽转竖型中云系发展较高但并不深厚；云顶温度最低在-40℃；最大光学厚度在13左右；过冷层厚度在2.7 km左右。云内微观条件中：有效粒子半径在13 μm左右；液水路径在东高西低型中较高在209 μm左右。     

广州亚运开幕日人工消(减)雨作业的物理响应分析

2010年11月12日广州亚运会开幕日当天对广州西部降水云系实施了飞机人工消(减)雨作业。对实施人工消(减)雨作业前后FY-2C/D静止卫星资料反演的云顶高度、云顶温度、云粒子有效半径、液水路径等4个云参量的时间序列变化特征进行分析,初步明确了此次飞机人工消(减)雨作业的物理响应,结果显示:作业后,云顶高度高的云系面积减小,整个目标云系迅速收缩;针对冷暖云层分别采用冷暖云催化剂进行催化,作业后冷云层很快消散;作业目标云系的云粒子有效半径在母云系的云粒子有效半径增加时出现不断减小的情况,这与催化后降水提前产生,大粒子从云体落至地面,使得目标云中大粒子越来越少有关;云中垂直液水含量在作业后迅速减小。     

河北春季一次飞机人工增雪的综合分析

2013年4月19日,河北省人工影响天气办公室在河北中南部地区根据云系特点首次采用多层次水平催化和垂直验证的方式对层状云进行人工催化和探测。本文利用机载仪器所取得的飞机探测资料,结合实时天气、卫星、雷达、探空和雨量观测资料,分析了河北春季层状云增雪作业的技术指标,探讨了航测微物理参量和卫星、雷达、探空等资料在作业中的应用。结果表明：云在发展期雷达回波由15 dBZ逐步上升到25-35 dBZ,卫星反演的云顶高度、云顶温度、有效粒子半径、光学厚度等都有增加;云在中后期有效粒子半径、光学厚度、液水路径迅速下降,雷达回波同时减弱。在高度3 177-5 723 m之间过冷云滴达100-700个/cm^3,含水量在0.01 g·m^-3左右,最大0.081 g·m^-3,云粒子主要在此增长,形成降水粒子,该区间适宜催化。作业后,影响区内云体发展,雷达回波增强,出现35 dBZ强回波,且强回波中心扩大;卫星反演的云顶高度、光学厚度等比对比区有明显增加。     

一次雨夹雪降水过程人工增水作业 的综合观测研究

2013年4月19日,河北省人工影响天气办公室在河北中南部地区对回流和西风槽复合天气系统云系进行人工增水作业,催化和探测部位在槽前上升气流云层和回流云层中,这次降水特点：(1) 降水系统呈“槽前云”和“回流云”两层结构,大粒子主要在上层槽前云中增长;(2) “槽前云”温度和云顶温度较高,“回流云”温度低,固态降水粒子在“回流云”粘连增长加大地面降雪;(3) 大云粒子和降水粒子很多;(4) 小云粒子丰富,全谱拟合曲线lgN=algD+b的截距b＞2,适合催化作业。在分析云微物理特征的基础上,结合实时天气、卫星、雷达、探空和雨量资料,从多角度分析了层状云增水作业实用技术和催化的宏微观响应,结果表明：作业后影响区雷达反射因子、卫星反演参量和云内微物理特征量都有明显变化;催化影响区地面降水的变异通过了显著性分析,但作业前后影响区内外这一差异是否是催化效果需要进一步验证。     

一次对流云团合并的卫星等综合观测分析

利用FY2C卫星观测反演得到的云物理特征参数,结合雷达、微波辐射计和地面雨量等资料,综合分析了2008年7月17日中国安徽一次强降水过程的云合并特征。结果表明：对流云团发展合并是这次强降水发生的主要原因,同一区域内FY2C卫星反演的云光学厚度、雷达回波以及地面降水的分布演变具有较好的一致性,强降水落区与云光学厚度大值区以及雷达强回波区基本对应;对流云团中的液水分布不均匀,以团块状结构为主,对流云团合并时,常先有云体上部（云顶）的合并,一旦云中不均匀的液水合并,合并部位的云光学厚度迅速增加,地面微波辐射计观测的整层液水含量跃增,地面将会出现强降水;一般降水增强之前云顶抬升,光学厚度增大;若云顶高但光学厚度较小时,地面降水一般不明显,光学厚度与降水的关系更密切;对流云团合并初期,云底由小粒子组成,T-re图上表现为深厚的凝结增长区域,合并时整层云粒子的有效半径增长明显,粒子相态达到混合相态区和冻结层的温度不断升高。     

华南冷锋云系的中尺度和微物理特征模拟分析

利用中国气象科学研究院（CAMS）中尺度云分辨模式,结合实测地面雨量、卫星和雷达资料,对发生在2004年3月31日~4月1日的华南春季冷锋降水过程进行模拟分析。模拟云带的出现时间、位置、形状与走向以及随时间的演变均与卫星观测一致。模拟的雷达回波分布同实测一致,回波主要出现在地面锋线以及锋后冷空气一侧,呈西南-东北带状分布,锋面云系的不同部位回波单体的差异很大。模拟的主要降水时段内的地面雨量分布范围以及大小同实测接近,中尺度雨带呈西南-东北带状结构,随着冷锋的移动逐渐向东南方向移动。在中尺度雨带上有4个生命史超过3小时的强降水中心,强降水中心基本都是向东略偏南的方向移动,与回波单体的移动方向一致。锋面云系的垂直运动深厚,且基本与云区对应,云系产生在低层辐合、正涡度,高层辐散和高相当位温的区域。地面锋线附近的上升速度大,云水含量高,冰相粒子的淞附和雨滴碰并云滴是云中的主要微物理过程,暖雨过程和冷雨过程都重要;而在高空锋区宽雨带部分低层为下沉气流,上升气流只出现在高层,主要是过冷云水、霰和雪晶组成的混合云,雪晶是霰增长的主要源项,降水主要由霰的融化产生,冷云降水过程比较重要。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on