全球变化条件下的平流层大气长期变化趋势

两个因素将对21世纪平流层气候变化产生重要作用。一个是温室气体增加,另一个是平流层臭氧的可能恢复。温室气体增加的辐射效应一方面造成地面和对流层变暖,另一方面却导致平流层变冷,而臭氧层恢复的辐射效应则导致平流层变暖。在温室气体增加和臭氧恢复这两种相反因素作用下的平流层温度如何变化是所关心的主要问题。为了预估平流层温度在21世纪的变化,使用了辐射—对流模式进行了敏感性实验,另外,也对他人进行的化学—气候耦合模式（CCM）模拟结果进行了分析。这些模拟结果表明,在21世纪平流层中上层（60～1 hPa）将变冷,而下层（150～60 hPa）变暖。这说明在平流层中上层温室气体的冷却效应将起主导作用,而臭氧恢复的加热效应在平流层下层相对更为重要。CCM的模拟结果表明,臭氧恢复最显著的区域在平流层上层（3 hPa附近）,与最大降温区一致,说明温室气体增加将有利于平流层上层臭氧恢复。CCM的模拟结果还表明,平流层两极地区在冬半年存在变暖的现象。根据已有的研究结果,极区变暖与平流层行星波活动增强有关,动力、热力和化学之间的正反馈作用也有可能对极区变暖有重要的贡献。     

Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.     

关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展

人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响,但是,最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地,近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响,也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气,而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常,一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标,并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点,并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。     

内蒙古干旱半干旱带2012年“7·20”极端暴雨事件的特征及成因

2012年7月下旬, 处于内陆干旱-半干旱地带的内蒙古中-西部地区出现了有气象记录以来的极端降水事件, 使该区气象与气候预测面临新问题. 7月20日河套地区出现大范围暴雨天气, 其中两个台站日降水量超历史极值, 一个台站超历史阈值, 属极端天气事件. 利用常规及精细化监测资料和NCEP再分析资料对此次极端降水天气事件进行分析. 结果表明: 从天气背景看, 贝加尔湖低槽内冷空气侵入副高西侧的暖空气中, 在对流层低层激发出低涡系统, 低涡前侧的南风急流使南来水汽到达41°N以北, 并在河套地区聚集. 对流层低层水汽通量维持在8~10g·cm^-1·hPa^-1·s^-1, 大气比湿达12~17 g·kg^-1, 为极端降水事件提供了丰沛的水汽. 该事件是通过MCC强烈发展形成的, 河套西北部不断有中尺度对流系统MCS发展东移, 河套南部新生的β中尺度系统发展并入MCS中, MCS系统发展为中尺度对流复合体MCC, MCC中心的TBB值达-40~-83 ℃. 近地面雷达监测显示, 河套东北部、中部存在强雷达回波群, 回波群内对流单体中心的反射率因子均达到50~55 dbz, 构成超级对流单体. 地面上, 不断新生的中尺度辐合线长时间存在于河套东北部并促发对流性暴雨. 暴雨前期对流层低层增温作用显著, 中高层"干侵入"使大气不稳定能量进一步增加. 冷锋前暖空气强烈的上升运动促发了大气不稳定能量释放. 该事件很可能与当前全球变暖密切相关, 随着全球变暖, 北极冰量减少, 夏季风增强, 雨带北移, 使得中纬度内陆干旱-半干旱带发生前所未有的极端降水事件过程.     

Contrasting impacts of the 8.2- and 4.2-ka abrupt climatic events on the regional vegetation of the Hulun Lake region in north-eastern China

Studies of the vegetation response to abrupt climatic events may provide valuable insights into assessing the impacts of such events under future global warming scenarios. Here we present a detailed record of regional vegetation change based on high-resolution pollen records for the intervals 9000–7000 and 5000–3000 cal a bp from the Hulun Lake region of north-eastern China. Our aims were to determine the regional expression of the 8.2- and 4.2-ka events in north-eastern China, especially their effects on vegetation composition. The results show that the response of the vegetation of the Hulun Lake region to the climatic cooling of the 8.2-ka event was relatively minor; however, the 4.2-ka event, which resulted in climatic aridification, resulted in pronounced vegetation degradation. We suggest that the specific characteristics of the 8.2- and 4.2-ka events, together with their duration and the regional climatic background on an orbital time scale, were the main factors responsible for the contrasting vegetation responses. The strengthening and northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) tended to offset the cooling effect of the 8.2-ka event on regional vegetation in the mid–high latitudes of East Asia; in contrast, the decrease in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere and the southward shift of the ITCZ may have intensified the drought effect of the 4.2-ka event in East Asia and the associated vegetation degradation. Under future global warming scenarios, both extreme cooling events and extreme drought events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment; however, the resulting regional vegetation responses may be substantially different.     

南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的小冰期气候

利用1650～1750年逐年变化的太阳辐照度等外强迫资料,驱动中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG发展的快速气候系统模式FGOALS_gl,模拟了小冰期(LIA)气候。把模拟的LIA表面温度变化与重建资料进行对比,结果表明FGOALS_gl对LIA气候具有较强的模拟能力,说明太阳辐照度的自然变化是导致小冰期气候的重要成因。模拟结果显示,LIA时期纬向平均温度变化表现为整个对流层降温,低纬度地区的降温中心位于对流层中层,北半球降温幅度大于南半球,高纬地区的降温幅度大于低纬地区。分析发现,中高纬地区的局地温度变化主要与环流异常相对应的冷暖平流有关; 低纬地区的降温主要与赤道东风加强有关,东风增强通过增大蒸发和引起次表层冷海水上翻而令表层温度降低。LIA时期的降水变化主要位于中低纬地区,表现为日界线东(西)侧降水的负(正)异常。与降水异常相对应,Walker环流加强,东太平洋对流活动减弱,它与低纬地区对流层中层冷异常相联系。与大气层顶净短波辐射异常的季节变化相对应,南、北半球夏季平均表面温度异常较之冬季低0.28℃左右。     

SO2排放,硫酸盐气溶胶和气候变化

工业ＳＯ２排放的增加使对流层大气中硫酸盐气溶胶浓度增大，硫酸盐气溶胶通过其直接和间接辐射强迫作用影响气候变化。有关的研究结果显示：硫到盐气溶胶的冷却效应在一定程度上抵消了温室效应，北半球增暖趋势的减缓和日较差的减小可能与大气中人为硫酸盐气溶胶浓度的增加有关。     

Millennial-scale climate changes on South Georgia, Southern Ocean

The location of South Georgia (54°S, 36°W) makes it a suitable site for the study of the climatic connections between temperate and polar environments in the Southern Hemisphere. Because the mass balance of the small cirque glaciers on South Georgia primarily responds to changes in summer temperature they can provide records of changes in the South Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation. We use grey scale density, weight-loss-on-ignition, and grain size analyses to show that the proportion of glacially eroded sediments to organic sediments in Block Lake was highly variable during the last 7400 cal yr B.P. We expect that the glacial signal is clearly detectable above noise originating from nonglacial processes and assume that an increase in glacigenic sediment deposition in Block Lake has followed Holocene glacier advances. We interpret proglacial lake sediment sequences in terms of summer climate warming and cooling events. Prominent millennial-scale features include cooling events between 7200 and 7000, 5200 and 4400, and 2400 and 1600 cal yr B.P. and after 1000 cal yr B.P. Comparison with other terrestrial and marine records reveals that the South Georgian record captures all the important changes in Southern Hemisphere Holocene climate. Our results reveal a tentative coupling between climate changes in the South Atlantic and North Atlantic because the documented temperature changes on South Georgia are anti-phased to those in the North Atlantic.     

全新世中期7 ka前后降温事件对中国北方植被生态的影响

大量研究表明,随着气候变暖,全球生态环境发生了巨大变化。然而,在相对温暖的气候条件下,假若发生重大降温事件,生态环境尤其是植被生态会如何响应,值得深入探讨。利用近年来发表的全新世高分辨率古气候记录以及孢粉记录的植被变化,对全新世中期7 ka(1 ka=1000 cal.a B.P.)前后的降温事件及其对植被生态的影响进行了综合分析。结果表明,7 ka前后降温事件在北半球很大范围都有记录,在季风边缘区伴随着气候的干旱,而在西风主导的区域总体表现为气候湿润。中国北方季风区山地以及高纬度地区表现为建群种的变化,如阔叶树种的减少以及针叶树种的增加;在季风边缘区总体表现为干旱气候下植被盖度的降低;而在西北内陆山地高山区域表现为林线的降低或树种的变化,低山地区森林下限表现为森林成分的增加以及耐旱树种的减少;在山前草原和盆地荒漠草原区域,植被的响应表现为植被盖度的增加和喜湿成分的增加。降温直接影响湿度较大的高山地区的森林成分和林线高度,而在低山干旱半干旱地区,降温则通过抑制蒸发、增加有效湿度影响植被盖度和组成。由于不同钻孔年代的不确定性、不同植被类型对气候变化的敏感性不同等,不同区域发生植被转型的时间不尽一致。全新世中期7 ka降温事件的触发机制有待深入研究,可能与大型火山喷发以及太阳活动变化有关,夏季太阳辐射的持续降低以及地球系统内部反馈也是共同的原因。     

The relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability and ENSO and its modulation at seasonal to decadal timescales

The intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) patterns in the tropical troposphere are documented using double space-time Fourier analysis. Madden and Julian oscillations (MJO) as well as equatorial coupled waves (Kelvin and Rossby) are investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data for the 1977–2006 period and the outputs of an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model named LODCA-OTCM. A strong seasonal dependence of the ITV/ENSO relationship is evidenced. The leading relationship for equatorial Rossby waves (with the correlation of the same order than for the MJO) is documented; namely, it is shown that intensification of Rossby waves in the central Pacific during boreal summer precedes by half a year the peak of El Niño. The fact that MJO activity in spring-summer is associated to the strength of subsequent El Niño is confirmed. It is shown that LODCA-QTCM is capable of simulating the convectively coupled equatorial waves in outgoing long wave radiation and zonal wind at 850 hPa fields with skill comparable to other Coupled General Circulation Models. The ITV/ENSO relationship is modulated at low frequency. In particular the periods of low ENSO amplitude are associated with weaker MJO activity and a cancellation of MJO at the ENSO development phase. In opposition, during the decaying phase, MJO signal is strong. The periods of strong ENSO activity are associated with a marked coupling between MJO, Kelvin and equatorially Rossby waves and ENSO; the precursor signal of MJO (Rossby waves) in the western (central) Pacific is obvious. The results provide material for the observed change in ENSO characteristics in recent years and question whether the characteristics of the ITV/ENSO relationship may be sensitive to the observed warming in the central tropical Pacific.     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gI模拟的小冰期气候

利用1650～1750年逐年变化的太阳辐照度等外强迫资料,驱动中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG发展的快速气候系统模式FGOALS_gl,模拟了小冰期(LIA)气候.把模拟的LIA表面温度变化与重建资料进行对比,结果表明FGOALS_gl对LIA气候具有较强的模拟能力,说明太阳辐照度的自然变化是导致小冰期气候的重要成因.模拟结果显示,LIA时期纬向平均温度变化表现为整个对流层降温,低纬度地Ⅸ的降温中心位于对流层中层,北半球降温幅度大于南半球,高纬地区的降温幅度大于低纬地区.分析发现,中高纬地区的局地温度变化主要与环流异常相对应的冷暖平流有关;低纬地区的降温主要与赤道东风加强有关,东风增强通过增大蒸发和引起次表层冷海水上翻而令表层温度降低.LIA时期的降水变化丰要位于中低纬地区,表现为日界线东(西)侧降水的负(正)异常.与降水异常相对应.Walker环流加强,东太平洋对流活动减弱,它与低纬地区对流层中层冷异常相联系.与大气层顶净短波辐射异常的季节变化相对应,南、北半球夏季平均表面温度异常较之冬季低0.28℃左右.     

末次盛冰期太平洋赤道辐合带对暖池外热带海表温度变化的敏感性

利用美国NCAR CAM3大气环流模式,分析了末次盛冰期（LGM）两个不同的热带海表温度重建方案中,北半球冬季热带中、西太平洋对流活动及大气环流对暖池外（赤道东太平洋和热带大西洋）热带SST异常的敏感性。结果表明：  1）SST异常首先引起大气环流的改变。  赤道东太平洋对流层下沉增强,而作为经向补偿,副热带东太平洋上升运动增强,其中南半球尤为明显,同时南半球热带中、西太平洋上升运动增强,加剧了该区纬向逆时针环流,说明冰期热带海气耦合过程受气候背景场（如SST）影响很大;   2）大气环流格局改变引起热带中西太平洋的大气加热、对流活动、表层风场及降雨的巨大变化。  140°E以西的婆罗洲和菲律宾区域,总的大气加热减少是由于对流与辐射加热减少所致,对应于该区风场辐散和降雨减少;   而140°E以东的南半球热带中、西太平洋,大气吸收热量增加,对流与辐射加热均增强,总降雨量也随之增加,反映该区赤道辐合带南移并增强。该项研究为探索热带太平洋在冰期/间冰期旋回中的古海洋学变化提供了新的数据支撑。此外,不同重建SST对赤道辐合带的影响比较大,因此利用重建SST进行数值模拟或者利用耦合模式研究LGM热带海气相互作用时,应该十分重视全球热带SST分布特征。     

Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea–ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147–154.     

Impact of the Ice-albedo Feedback on Meridional Temperature Gradient of Northern Hemisphere

This paper analyzes the variation of meridional temperature gradient (MTG) over mid-latitude and high-latitude of Northern Hemisphere continents during last 100 years using observational data. It is found that MTG over high-latitude of Northern Hemisphere continents has an increasing trend, but the simulation results of CMIP5 models show a decreasing trend. Results of this study showed the decrease of MTG over the high-latitude continents of Northern Hemisphere calculated by CMIP5 historical simulations mainly because the models of CMIP5 exaggerated ice-albedo feedback over high-latitude regions. A series of simulation results by energy balance climate models showed that ice-albedo feedback amplified the magnitude of warming in the global warming induced only by carbon dioxide, and the magnitude of warming in high latitude was much larger than that in low-latitude regions. Along with global warming, ice-albedo feedback has little influence on MTG in low-latitude, but can induce the decrease of MTG in high-latitude regions.     

马兰冰芯记录的青藏高原中部现代升温变化特征

根据从可可西里地区马兰冰帽钻取的深102.07m冰芯记录中δ¹⁸O的年变化,恢复了青藏高原中部20世纪20年代以来的气候变化.研究表明,青藏高原中部的升温变化与北半球20世纪的升温变化的总体趋势一致,最暖阶段出现在50—80年代早期.期间也出现了几次明显的冷的波动,尤其80年代后期至90年代持续低温,可能与这一时段强盛的夏季风有关.这也表明20世纪末全球急剧升温变化的过程中,某些地区存在气候变冷的波动事件.     

高空大气温度变化趋势不确定性的研究进展

IPCC第4次评估报告指出：近50年来,全球对流层温度趋于升高、平流层趋于下降;同时强调了研究结果中普遍存在的不确定性,造成不确定性的主要原因是原始资料、台站选取和不同均一化方法。从理论基础入手,系统地总结了国内、外近年来高空大气温度长期变化趋势的研究成果及其不确定性产生的主要原因,详细介绍了高空大气温度序列的质量控制和均一化方法,并对我国探空台站温度序列的不确定性进行了探讨。利用静力学方法进行质量控制,以最大资料缺测率30%作为序列取舍标准,用两相回归法和再分析序列均一化处理116个中国探空站高空温度序列。研究结果表明,1958年以来我国对流层中低层趋于升温,其中1980年以后升温尤为明显;而平流层下层显示降温。      

Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74,000 Years Ago

A general feedback between volcanism and climate at times of transition in the Quaternary climate record is suggested, exemplified by events accompanying the Toba eruption (74,000 yr ago), the largest known late Quaternary explosive volcanic eruption. The Toba paroxysm occurred during the δ¹⁸O stage 5a-4 transition, a period of rapid ice growth and falling global sea level, which may have been a factor in creating stresses that triggered the volcanic event. Toba is estimated to have produced between 10¹⁵ and 10¹⁶ g of fine ash and sulfur gases lofted in co-ignimbrite ash clouds to heights of at least 32 ± 5 km, which may have led to dense stratospheric dust and sulfuric acid aerosol clouds. These conditions could have created a brief, dramatic cooling or "volcanic winter," followed by estimated annual Northern Hemisphere surface-temperature decreases of 3° to 5°C caused by the longer-lived aerosols. Summer temperature decreases of 10°C at high northern latitudes, adjacent to regions already covered by snow and ice, might have increased snow cover and sea-ice extent, accelerating the global cooling already in progress. Evidence for such climate-volcanic feedback, following Milankovitch periodicities, is found at several climatic transitions.     

全球气候变暖与未来发展趋势

根据全球及中国气温观测资料分析了近百年全球变暖问题,指出总的变暖趋势对认为温室效应的加剧是气候变暖的原因的意见有利。但温度变化的时空分布则与温室效应的理论结果有不少不一致之处,如变暖的突变性,50年代到70年代的变冷、80年代大洋北部的变冷及中国南部的变冷等。根据代用资料建立的数百年气温序列表明,19世纪是小冰期中的一个冷期。因此,如果从这时开始计算变暖幅度,则可能过高估计了温室效应。     

我国东北及邻近地区年平均气温异常及其对北半球气候变暖和欧亚雪盖面积的响应

根据我国东北及邻近地区201个常规气象台站的年平均气温资料,利用EOF和分段线性拟合等方法分析了该地区气温异常的年代际特征及其对北半球气温和欧亚雪盖面积的响应.结果表明:我国东北及邻近地区年平均气温异常主要有全区一致型和南北反向型两种.近50 a来气温总体呈单调上升趋势,尤其是1990年代后期增温趋势更加明显,时间上东部早于西部.结合降水,1980年代起东北北部由冷干向暖湿转变,而华北区则由暖湿向暖干转变.东北北部升温单调、剧烈、显著,南部在1968和1985年曾两次发生突变,经历过1970-1980年代初的低温后增温趋势更加剧烈,其增温率几乎是第一次突变前的两倍.分析认为,我国东北及邻近地区大范围整体变暖与北半球平均气温的升高相一致;东北部气温的年际变化还受到欧亚雪盖面积的影响.