The Volumetric Particle Approach for Concentration Fluctuations and Chemical Reactions in Lagrangian Particle and Particle-grid Models

A new approach is proposed to predict concentration fluctuations in the framework of one-particle Lagrangian stochastic models. The approach is innovative since it allows the computation of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes using a Lagrangian one-particle model with micromixing but with no need for the simulating of background particles. The extension of the model for the treatment of chemically reactive plumes is also accomplished and allows the computation of plume-related chemical reactions in a Lagrangian one-particle framework separately from the background chemical reactions, accounting for the effect of concentration fluctuations on chemical reactions in a general, albeit approximate, manner. These characteristics should make the proposed approach an ideal tool for plume-in-grid calculations in chemistry transport models. The results are compared to the wind-tunnel experiments of Fackrell and Robins (J Fluid Mech, 117:1–26, 1982) for plume dispersion in a neutral boundary layer and to the measurements of Legg et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 35:277–302, 1986) for line source dispersion in and above a model canopy. Preliminary reacting plume simulations are also shown comparing the model with the experimental results of Brown and Bilger (J Fluid Mech, 312:373–407, 1996; Atmos Environ, 32:611–628, 1998) to demonstrate the feasibility of computing chemical reactions in the proposed framework.     

Validating the turbulence parameterization schemes of a numerical model using eddy dissipation rate and turbulent kinetic energy measurements in terrain-disrupted airflow

A number of turbulence parameterization schemes are available in the latest version (6.0) of the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS). Chan in Meteorol Atmos Phys 103:145–157, (2009), studied the performance of these schemes by simulating the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) distribution in the vicinity of the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) and comparing with the EDR measurements of remote-sensing instruments at the airport. For the e-l (turbulent kinetic energy ? mixing length) scheme considered in that study, the asymptotic mixing length was assumed to be a constant. This assumption is changed in the present paper, a variable asymptotic mixing length is chosen and simulations of EDR fields are repeated for terrain-disrupted airflow in the vicinity of HKIA. It is found that, with a variable asymptotic mixing length, the performance of the e-l scheme is greatly improved. With suitable choice of the empirical constants in the turbulence closure, the accuracy of the EDR profile (in comparison with LIDAR and wind profiler measurements) is found to be comparable with that predicted by the Deardorff scheme. A study on the sensitivity of the simulation results to these empirical constants has also been performed. Moreover, as a follow-up of the previous study of Chan in Meteorol Atmos Phys 103:145–157, (2009), case studies have been conducted on the following issues of the model simulation of turbulence for aviation application: (a) the effect of vertical gridding on the simulation results, (b) possibility of false alarm (such as over-forecasting of EDR value) in light turbulence cases, and (c) the performance in the simulation of other turbulence intensity metric for aviation purpose, e.g. TKE.     

Evaluation of Two Energy Balance Closure Parametrizations

A general lack of energy balance closure indicates that tower-based eddy-covariance (EC) measurements underestimate turbulent heat fluxes, which calls for robust correction schemes. Two parametrization approaches that can be found in the literature were tested using data from the Canadian Twin Otter research aircraft and from tower-based measurements of the German Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) programme. Our analysis shows that the approach of Huang et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 127:273–292, 2008), based on large-eddy simulation, is not applicable to typical near-surface flux measurements because it was developed for heights above the surface layer and over homogeneous terrain. The biggest shortcoming of this parametrization is that the grid resolution of the model was too coarse so that the surface layer, where EC measurements are usually made, is not properly resolved. The empirical approach of Panin and Bernhofer (Izvestiya Atmos Oceanic Phys 44:701–716, 2008) considers landscape-level roughness heterogeneities that induce secondary circulations and at least gives a qualitative estimate of the energy balance closure. However, it does not consider any feature of landscape-scale heterogeneity other than surface roughness, such as surface temperature, surface moisture or topography. The failures of both approaches might indicate that the influence of mesoscale structures is not a sufficient explanation for the energy balance closure problem. However, our analysis of different wind-direction sectors shows that the upwind landscape-scale heterogeneity indeed influences the energy balance closure determined from tower flux data. We also analyzed the aircraft measurements with respect to the partitioning of the “missing energy” between sensible and latent heat fluxes and we could confirm the assumption of scalar similarity only for Bowen ratios $\approx $ 1.     

Hourly estimation of soil heat flux density at the soil surface with three models and two field methods

Heat flux density at the soil surface (G ₀) was evaluated hourly on a vegetal cover 0.08 m high, with a leaf area index of 1.07 m² m^?2, during daylight hours, using Choudhury et al. (Agric For Meteorol 39:283–297, 1987) ( $ G_0^{\text{rn}} $ ), Santanello and Friedl (J Appl Meteorol 42:851–862, 2003) ( $ G_0^{\text{s}} $ ), and force-restore ( $ G_0^{\text{fr}} $ ) models and the plate calorimetry methodology ( $ G_0^{\text{pco}} $ ), where the gradient calorimetry methodology (G _0R ) served as a reference for determining G ₀. It was found that the peak of G _0R was at 1 p.m., with values that ranged between 60 and 100 W m^?2 and that the G ₀/Rn relation varied during the day with values close to zero in the early hours of the morning and close to 0.25 in the last hours of daylight. The $ G_0^{\text{s}} $ model presented the best performance, followed by the $ G_0^{\text{rn}} $ and $ G_0^{\text{fr}} $ models. The plate calorimetry methodology showed a similar behavior to that of the gradient calorimetry referential methodology.     

Reply to the Comment by Mauder on “How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass”

In Kochendorfer et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 145:383–398, 2012, hereafter K2012) the vertical wind speed $(w)$ measured by a non-orthogonal three-dimensional sonic anemometer was shown to be underestimated by $\approx $ 12 %. Turbulent statistics and eddy-covariance fluxes estimated using $w$ were also affected by this underestimate in $w$ . Methodologies used in K2012 are clarified here in response to Mauder’s comment. In addition, further analysis of the K2012 study is presented to help address questions raised in the comment. Specific responses are accompanied with examples of time series, calculated correlation coefficients, and additional explanation of the K2012 methods and assumptions. The discussion and analysis included in the comment and in this response do not affect the validity of the methods or conclusions presented in K2012.     

Characterization of Oscillatory Motions in the Stable Atmosphere of a Deep Valley

In a valley sheltered from strong synoptic effects, the dynamics of the valley atmosphere at night is dominated by katabatic winds. In a stably stratified atmosphere, these winds undergo temporal oscillations, whose frequency is given by $N \sin {\alpha }$ N sin α for an infinitely long slope of constant slope angle $\alpha $ α , $N$ N being the buoyancy frequency. Such an unsteady flow in a stably stratified atmosphere may also generate internal gravity waves (IGWs). The numerical study by Chemel et al. (Meteorol Atmos Phys 203:187–194, 2009) showed that, in the stable atmosphere of a deep valley, the oscillatory motions associated with the IGWs generated by katabatic winds are distinct from those of the katabatic winds. The IGW frequency was found to be independent of $\alpha $ α and about $0.8N$ 0.8 N . Their study did not consider the effects of the background stratification and valley geometry on these results. The present work extends this study by investigating those effects for a wide range of stratifications and slope angles, through numerical simulations for a deep valley. The two oscillatory systems are reproduced in the simulations. The frequency of the oscillations of the katabatic winds is found to be equal to $N$ N times the sine of the maximum slope angle. Remarkably, the IGW frequency is found to also vary as $C_\mathrm{w}N$ C w N , with $C_\mathrm{w}$ C w in the range $0.7$ 0.7 – $0.95$ 0.95 . These values for $C_\mathrm{w}$ C w are similar to those reported for IGWs radiated by any turbulent field with no dominant frequency component. Results suggest that the IGW wavelength is controlled by the valley depth.     

Analytically Modelling Mean Wind and Stress Profiles in Canopies

An analytical model for mean wind profiles in sparse canopies (W. Wang, Boundary-Layer Meteorol 142:383–399, 2012) has been further developed, with (1) an explicit solution being derived, and (2) a linear term being added to the $K$ -closure scheme to improve the shear-stress parametrization when the contribution of non-local transport is significant. Results from large-eddy simulations and from laboratory experiments are used to evaluate the model and adjust model parameters, showing that the model can well simulate canopy wind and stress profiles not only for sparse-canopy scenarios, but also for dense-canopy scenarios. The analytical solution converges exactly to the standard surface-layer logarithmic wind profile in the case of zero canopy density, and tends to an exponential wind profile for a dense canopy.     

Improving Stable Boundary-Layer Height Estimation Using a Stability-Dependent Critical Bulk Richardson Number

For many decades, attempts have been made to find the universal value of the critical bulk Richardson number ( $Ri_{Bc}$ ; defined over the entire stable boundary layer). By analyzing an extensive large-eddy simulation database and various published wind-tunnel data, we show that $Ri_{Bc}$ is not a constant, rather it strongly depends on bulk atmospheric stability. A (qualitatively) similar dependency, based on the well-known resistance laws, was reported by Melgarejo and Deardorff (J Atmos Sci 31:1324–1333, 1974) about forty years ago. To the best of our knowledge, this result has largely been ignored. Based on data analysis, we find that the stability-dependent $Ri_{Bc}$ estimates boundary-layer height more accurately than the conventional constant $Ri_{Bc}$ approach. Furthermore, our results indicate that the common practice of setting $Ri_{Bc}$ as a constant in numerical modelling studies implicitly constrains the bulk stability of the simulated boundary layer. The proposed stability-dependent $Ri_{Bc}$ does not suffer from such an inappropriate constraint.     

Comment on “Kinetics of the reactions of Cl atoms with 2-buten-1-ol, 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol, and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol as a function of temperature” by Rodriguez et al. (J. Atmos. Chem. (2008) 59:187–197)

The Arrhenius expressions and the data plotted in Figure 2 of Rodriguez et al. 2008 give rate coefficients of approximately 2?×?10^-8 cm³ molecule^-1 s^-1 at 255 K. Such values are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than expected from simple collision theory (Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts 1986). The rate coefficients reported at sub-ambient temperatures are substantially greater than the gas kinetic limit and are not physically plausible. The rate coefficients reported by Rodriguez et al. imply a long range attraction between the reactants which is not reasonable for reaction of neutral species such as chlorine atoms and unsaturated alcohols. We also note that the pre-exponential A factors (10^-23-10^-20) and activation energies (?15 kcal mol^-1) are not physically plausible. We conclude that there are large systematic errors in the study by Rodriguez et al. (Atmos Chem 59:187–197, 2008).     

Advances in Air–Sea \hbox {CO}_2 Flux Measurement by Eddy Correlation

Eddy-correlation measurements of the oceanic \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux are useful for the development and validation of air–sea gas exchange models and for analysis of the marine carbon cycle. Results from more than a decade of published work and from two recent field programs illustrate the principal interferences from water vapour and motion, demonstrating experimental approaches for improving measurement precision and accuracy. Water vapour cross-sensitivity is the greatest source of error for \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux measurements using infrared gas analyzers, often leading to a ten-fold bias in the measured \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux. Much of this error is not related to optical contamination, as previously supposed. While various correction schemes have been demonstrated, the use of an air dryer and closed-path analyzer is the most effective way to eliminate this interference. This approach also obviates density corrections described by Webb et al. (Q J R Meteorol 106:85–100, 1980). Signal lag and frequency response are a concern with closed-path systems, but periodic gas pulses at the inlet tip provide for precise determination of lag time and frequency attenuation. Flux attenuation corrections are shown to be \(<\) 5 % for a cavity ring-down analyzer (CRDS) and dryer with a 60-m inlet line. The estimated flux detection limit for the CRDS analyzer and dryer is a factor of ten better than for IRGAs sampling moist air. While ship-motion interference is apparent with all analyzers tested in this study, decorrelation or regression methods are effective in removing most of this bias from IRGA measurements and may also be applicable to the CRDS.     

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge.     

Dynamics and predictability of a low-order wind-driven ocean–atmosphere coupled model

The dynamics of a low-order coupled wind-driven ocean–atmosphere system is investigated with emphasis on its predictability properties. The low-order coupled deterministic system is composed of a baroclinic atmosphere for which 12 dominant dynamical modes are only retained (Charney and Straus in J Atmos Sci 37:1157–1176, 1980) and a wind-driven, quasi-geostrophic and reduced-gravity shallow ocean whose field is truncated to four dominant modes able to reproduce the large scale oceanic gyres (Pierini in J Phys Oceanogr 41:1585–1604, 2011). The two models are coupled through mechanical forcings only. The analysis of its dynamics reveals first that under aperiodic atmospheric forcings only dominant single gyres (clockwise or counterclockwise) appear, while for periodic atmospheric solutions the double gyres emerge. In the present model domain setting context, this feature is related to the level of truncation of the atmospheric fields, as indicated by a preliminary analysis of the impact of higher wavenumber (“synoptic” scale) modes on the development of oceanic gyres. In the latter case, double gyres appear in the presence of a chaotic atmosphere. Second the dynamical quantities characterizing the short-term predictability (Lyapunov exponents, Lyapunov dimension, Kolmogorov–Sinaï (KS) entropy) displays a complex dependence as a function of the key parameters of the system, namely the coupling strength and the external thermal forcing. In particular, the KS-entropy is increasing as a function of the coupling in most of the experiments, implying an increase of the rate of loss of information about the localization of the system on its attractor. Finally the dynamics of the error is explored and indicates, in particular, a rich variety of short term behaviors of the error in the atmosphere depending on the (relative) amplitude of the initial error affecting the ocean, from polynomial (at ² + bt ³ + ct ⁴) up to exponential-like evolutions. These features are explained and analyzed in the light of the recent findings on error growth (Nicolis et al. in J Atmos Sci 66:766–778, 2009).     

Can developed economies combat dangerous anthropogenic climate change without near-term reductions from developing economies?

Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.     

On the Mechanism of Air Pollutant Removal in Two-Dimensional Idealized Street Canyons: A Large-Eddy Simulation Approach

Flow resistance, ventilation, and pollutant removal for idealized two-dimensional (2D) street canyons of different building-height to street-width (aspect) ratios $AR$ are examined using the friction factor $f$ , air exchange rate (ACH), and pollutant exchange rate (PCH), respectively, calculated by large-eddy simulation (LES). The flows are basically classified into three characteristic regimes, namely isolated roughness, wake interference, and skimming flow, as functions of the aspect ratios. The LES results are validated by various experimental and numerical datasets available in the literature. The friction factor increases with decreasing aspect ratio and reaches a peak at $AR = 0.1$ in the isolated roughness regime and decreases thereafter. As with the friction factor, the ACH increases with decreasing aspect ratio in the wake interference and skimming flow regimes, signifying the improved aged air removal for a wider street canyon. The PCH exhibits a behaviour different from its ACH counterpart in the range of aspect ratios tested. Pollutants are most effectively removed from the street canyon with $AR = 0.5$ . However, a minimum of PCH is found nearby at $AR = 0.3$ , at which the pollutant removal is sharply weakened. Besides, the ACH and PCH are partitioned into the mean and turbulent components to compare their relative contributions. In line with our earlier Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes calculations (Liu et al., Atmos Environ 45:4763–4769, 2011), the current LES shows that the turbulent components contribute more to both ACH and PCH, consistently demonstrating the importance of atmospheric turbulence in the ventilation and pollutant removal for urban areas.     

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis for 54 models of computing hourly diffuse solar irradiation on clear sky

Fifty-four broadband models for computation of solar diffuse irradiation on horizontal surface were tested in Romania (South-Eastern Europe). The input data consist of surface meteorological data, column integrated data, and data derived from satellite measurements. The testing procedure is performed in 21 stages intended to provide information about the sensitivity of the models to various sets of input data. There is no model to be ranked “the best” for all sets of input data. However, some of the models performed better than others, in the sense that they were ranked among the best for most of the testing stages. The best models for solar diffuse radiation computation are, on equal footing, ASHRAE 2005 model (ASHRAE 2005) and King model (King and Buckius, Solar Energy 22:297–301, 1979). The second best model is MAC model (Davies, Bound Layer Meteor 9:33–52, 1975). Details about the performance of each model in the 21 testing stages are found in the Electronic Supplementary Material.     

Model sensitivity analysis study for western disturbances over the Himalayas

Western disturbances (WDs) are extratropical synoptic scale weather systems which cause significant precipitation over the Himalayas and surrounding areas during winter (December, January and February, DJF). Three intense WDs, 13–17 January 2002, 05–08 February 2002, and 11–13 February 2002, are chosen as two of the WDs are extensively studied by Hatwar et al. (Curr Sci 88:913–920, 2005) and one independent WD (Indian Meteorological Department, Delhi, Mausam 54(1):346–347, 2003) is considered. Firstly, it is planned to study model sensitivity with these WD cases, which are simulated with different combinations of cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer and cumulus parameterization schemes in weather research and forecasting model to assess a better suite for the WD simulations. Sensitivity and error analyses carried out with different observations, show that the combination of Eta Ferrier or Eta Grid-scale cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme, Yonsei University scheme and Kain-Fritsch scheme has shown consistently lower error values. Further, the results suggest, that the model simulations of a WD capture the spatial distribution of precipitation, locations of low pressure region and the circulation patterns very well. It is observed that the WD system comprises of low pressure region in the vertical atmospheric column in form of a stationary surface low and a depression in the subtropical westerly jet moving eastwards. Further, the growth of convective cyclonic systems over the steep topographical region of the Himalayas is depicted by the increased positive vorticity and high values of CAPE, alluding to the propensity of WDs to cause orographically forced precipitation. WDs and associated precipitation show varied but significant impacts on the Indian winter climate such as snow cover variation and cold wave or fog conditions along with impact on winter crop production.     

The Influence of Aircraft Speed Variations on Sensible Heat-Flux Measurements by Different Airborne Systems

Crawford et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 66:237–245, 1993) showed that the time average is inappropriate for airborne eddy-covariance flux calculations. The aircraft’s ground speed through a turbulent field is not constant. One reason can be a correlation with vertical air motion, so that some types of structures are sampled more densely than others. To avoid this, the time-sampled data are adjusted for the varying ground speed so that the modified estimates are equivalent to spatially-sampled data. A comparison of sensible heat-flux calculations using temporal and spatial averaging methods is presented and discussed. Data of the airborne measurement systems $\hbox {M}^2\hbox {AV}$ , Helipod and Dornier 128-6 are used for the analysis. These systems vary in size, weight and aerodynamic characteristics, since the $\hbox {M}^2\hbox {AV}$ is a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the Helipod a helicopter-borne turbulence probe and the Dornier 128-6 a manned research aircraft. The systematic bias anticipated in covariance computations due to speed variations was neither found when averaging over Dornier, Helipod nor UAV flight legs. However, the random differences between spatial and temporal averaging fluxes were found to be up to 30 % on the individual flight legs.     

Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.     

Amendment to “Analytical Solution for the Convectively-Mixed Atmospheric Boundary Layer”: Inclusion of Subsidence

In Ouwersloot and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano (Boundary-Layer Meteorol. doi:10.1007/s10546-013-9816-z, 2013, this issue), the analytical solutions for the boundary-layer height and scalar evolutions are derived for the convective boundary layer, based on the prognostic equations of mixed-layer slab models without taking subsidence into account. Here, we include and quantify the added effect of subsidence if the subsidence velocity scales linearly with height throughout the atmosphere. This enables analytical analyses for a wider range of observational cases. As a demonstration, the sensitivity of the boundary-layer height and the potential temperature jump to subsidence and the free tropospheric stability is graphically presented. The new relations show the importance of the temporal distribution of the surface buoyancy flux in determining the evolution if there is subsidence.     

“Reasons for concern” (about climate change) in the United States

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits its parties to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Authors of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b) offered some insight into what negotiators might consider dangerous by highlighting five “reasons for concern” (RFC’s) and tracking concern against changes in global mean temperature; they illustrated their assessments in the now iconic “burning embers” diagram. The Fourth Assessment Report reaffirmed the value of plotting RFC’s against temperature change (IPCC 2007a, b), and Smith et al. (2009) produced an unpated embers visualization for the globe. This paper applies the same assessment and communication strategies to calibrate the comparable RFC’s for the United States. It adds “National Security Concern” as a sixth RFC because many now see changes in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme events around the world as “risk enhancers” that deserve attention at the highest levels of the US policy and research communities. The US embers portrayed here suggest that: (1) US policy-makers will not discover anything really “dangerous” over the near to medium term if they consider only economic impacts that are aggregated across the entire country but that (2) they could easily uncover “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” by focusing their attention on changes in the intensities, frequencies, and regional distributions of extreme weather events driven by climate change.