GCM intercomparison of global cloud regimes: present-day evaluation and climate change response

The radiative feedback from clouds remains the largest source of variation in climate sensitivity amongst general circulation models (GCMs). A cloud clustering methodology is applied to six contemporary GCMs in order to provide a detailed intercomparison and evaluation of the simulated cloud regimes. By analysing GCMs in the context of cloud regimes, processes related to particular cloud types are more likely to be evaluated. In this paper, the mean properties of the global cloud regimes are evaluated, and the cloud response to climate change is analysed in the cloud-regime framework. Most of the GCMs are able to simulate the principal cloud regimes, however none of the models analysed have a good representation of trade cumulus in the tropics. The models also share a difficulty in simulating those regimes with cloud tops at mid-levels, with only ECHAM5 producing a regime of tropical cumulus congestus. Optically thick, high top cloud in the extra-tropics, typically associated with the passage of frontal systems, is simulated considerably too frequently in the ECHAM5 model. This appears to be a result of the cloud type persisting in the model after the meteorological conditions associated with frontal systems have ceased. The simulation of stratocumulus in the MIROC GCMs is too extensive, resulting in the tropics being too reflective. Most of the global-mean cloud response to doubled CO₂ in the GCMs is found to be a result of changes in the cloud radiative properties of the regimes, rather than changes in the relative frequency of occurrence (RFO) of the regimes. Most of the variance in the global cloud response between the GCMs arises from differences in the radiative response of frontal cloud in the extra-tropics and from stratocumulus cloud in the tropics. This variance is largely the result of excessively high RFOs of specific regimes in particular GCMs. It is shown here that evaluation and subsequent improvement in the simulation of the present-day regime properties has the potential to reduce the variance of the global cloud response, and hence climate sensitivity, amongst GCMs. For the ensemble of models considered in this study, the use of observations of the mean present-day cloud regimes suggests a potential reduction in the range of climate sensitivity of almost a third. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A quantitative performance assessment of cloud regimes in climate models

Differences in the radiative feedback from clouds account for much of the variation in climate sensitivity amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs). Therefore metrics of model performance which are demonstrated to be relevant to the cloud response to climate change form an important contribution to the overall evaluation of GCMs. In this paper we demonstrate an alternative method for assigning model data to observed cloud regimes obtained from clustering histograms of cloud amount in joint cloud optical depth—cloud top pressure classes. The method removes some of the subjectivity that exists in previous GCM cloud clustering studies. We apply the method to ten GCMs submitted to the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP), evaluate the simulated cloud regimes and analyse the climate change response in the context of these regimes. We also propose two cloud regime metrics, one of which is specifically targeted at assessing GCMs for the purpose of obtaining the global cloud radiative response to climate change. Most of the global variance in the cloud radiative response between GCMs is due to low clouds, with 47% arising from the stratocumulus regime and 18% due to the regime characterised by clouds undergoing transition from stratocumulus to cumulus. This result is found to be dominated by two structurally similar GCMs. The shallow cumulus regime, though widespread, has a smaller contribution and reduces the variance. For the stratocumulus and transition regimes, part of the variance results from a large model spread in the radiative properties of the regime in the control simulation. Comparison with observations reveals a systematic bias for both the stratocumulus and transition regimes to be overly reflective. If this bias was corrected with all other aspects of the response unchanged, the variance in the low cloud response would reduce. The response of some regimes with high cloud tops differ between the GCMs. These regimes are simulated too infrequently in a few of the models. If the frequency in the control simulation were more realistic and changes within the regimes were unaltered, the variance in the cloud radiative response from high-top clouds would increase. As a result, use of observations of the mean present-day cloud regimes suggests that whilst improvements in the simulation of the cloud regimes would impact the climate sensitivity, the inter-model variance may not reduce. When the cloud regime metric is calculated for the GCMs analysed here, only one model is on average consistent with observations within their uncertainty (and even this model is not consistent with the observations for all regimes), indicating scope for improvement in the simulation of cloud regimes. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A treatment for the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition in GCMs

Numerical models of climate have great difficulties with the simulation of marine low clouds in the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It has been especially difficult to reproduce the observed geographical distributions of the different cloud regimes in those regions. The present study discusses mechanisms proposed in previous works for changing one regime into another. One criterion is based on the theory of stratocumulus destruction through cloud top entrainment instability due to buoyancy reversal—situations in which the mixture of two air parcels becomes denser than either of the original parcels due to evaporation of cloud water. Another criterion is based on the existence of decoupling in the boundary layer. When decoupled, the stratocumulus regime changes to another in which these clouds can still exist together with cumulus. In a LES study, the authors have suggested that a combination of those two criteria can be used to diagnose whether, at a location, the cloud regime corresponds to a well-mixed stratocumulus regime, a shallow cumulus regime, or to a transitional regime where the boundary layer is decoupled. The concept is tested in the framework of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). It is found that several outstanding features of disagreement between simulation and observation can be interpreted as misrepresentations of the cloud regimes by the GCM. A novel criterion for switching among regimes is proposed to alleviate the effects of these misrepresentations.     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

基于CERES资料的中国西南地区云水含量和粒子有效半径分布及变化特征

利用NASA/CERES发布的2001～2015年云参数资料,选取高层云、雨层云、层积云的云水含量和云粒子有效半径,统计分析了西南地区云参数的时空分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明:从年均空间分布来看,西南地区液水和冰水含量均东部高于西部,海拔低的地区高于海拔高的地区;高层云和雨层云液相和冰相云粒子有效半径在川西高原最大。从数值大小来看,雨层云液水和冰水含量最多,分别介于90～230 g/m2和100～300 g/m2,层积云最少,分别介于0～80 g/m2和0～60 g/m2;冰相云粒子有效半径高于液相2～6 μm。从季节分布来看,雨层云液水和冰水含量秋季和冬季偏高,夏季和春季偏少,高层云和层积云季节差异较小;液相云粒子有效半径均夏季最大。从变化趋势来看,西南地区各地液水和冰水含量均呈减少趋势,液相和冰相云粒子有效半径有呈减少或增加趋势。     

广东省新丰江流域4—5月暖云的微物理特征

本文对新丰江流域初夏暧云的含水量与小云滴谱特征进行了分析。指出暖积云的含水量比暖性层积云大;广东初夏暧性层积云的含水量大于北方降水性As—Ns云系。被探测云的主要降水机制均为碰并增长过程,但浓积云中云滴碰并增长条件比层积云优越;与湖南等地积云相比,广东积云更具有海洋性积云的特征。      

Compensating Errors in Cloud Radiative and Physical Properties over the Southern Ocean in the CMIP6 Climate Models

The Southern Ocean is covered by a large amount of clouds with high cloud albedo. However, as reported by previous climate model intercomparison projects, underestimated cloudiness and overestimated absorption of solar radiation (ASR) over the Southern Ocean lead to substantial biases in climate sensitivity. The present study revisits this long-standing issue and explores the uncertainty sources in the latest CMIP6 models. We employ 10-year satellite observations to evaluate cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud physical properties in five CMIP6 models that provide comprehensive output of cloud, radiation, and aerosol. The simulated longwave, shortwave, and net CRE at the top of atmosphere in CMIP6 are comparable with the CERES satellite observations. Total cloud fraction (CF) is also reasonably simulated in CMIP6, but the comparison of liquid cloud fraction (LCF) reveals marked biases in spatial pattern and seasonal variations. The discrepancies between the CMIP6 models and the MODIS satellite observations become even larger in other cloud macro- and micro-physical properties, including liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical depth (COD), and cloud effective radius, as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD). However, the large underestimation of both LWP and cloud effective radius (regional means ~20% and 11%, respectively) results in relatively smaller bias in COD, and the impacts of the biases in COD and LCF also cancel out with each other, leaving CRE and ASR reasonably predicted in CMIP6. An error estimation framework is employed, and the different signs of the sensitivity errors and biases from CF and LWP corroborate the notions that there are compensating errors in the modeled shortwave CRE. Further correlation analyses of the geospatial patterns reveal that CF is the most relevant factor in determining CRE in observations, while the modeled CRE is too sensitive to LWP and COD. The relationships between cloud effective radius, LWP, and COD are also analyzed to explore the possible uncertainty sources in different models. Our study calls for more rigorous calibration of detailed cloud physical properties for future climate model development and climate projection.     

Evaluation of cloud vertical structure simulated by recent BCC_AGCM versions through comparison with CALIPSO-GOCCP data

ABSTRACT The abilities of BCC-AGCM2.1 and BCC_AGCM2.2 to simulate the annual-mean cloud vertical structure （CVS） were evaluated through comparison with GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product （CALIPSO-GOCCP） data. BCC-AGCM2.2 has a dynamical core and physical processes that are consistent with BCC-AGCM2.1, but has a higher horizontal resolution. Results showed that both BCC-AGCM versions underestimated the global-mean total cloud cover （TCC）, middle cloud cover （MCC） and low cloud cover （LCC）, and that BCC_AGCM2.2 underestimated the global-mean high cloud cover （HCC）. The global-mean cloud cover shows a systematic decrease from BCCA-GCM2.1 to BCC_AGCM2.2, especially for HCC. Geographically, HCC is significantly overestimated in the tropics, particularly by BCC_AGCM2,1, while LCC is generally overestimated over extra-tropical lands, but significantly underestimated over most of the oceans, especially for subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds. The leading EOF modes of CVS were extracted. The BCC_AGCMs perform well in reproducing EOF1, but with a larger variance explained. The two models also capture the basic features of EOF3, except an obvious deficiency in eigen- vector peaks. EOF2 has the largest simulation biases in both position and strength of eigenvector peaks. Furthermore, we investigated the effects of CVS on relative shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing （RSCRF and RLCRF）. Both BCC_AGCM versions successfully reproduce the sign of regression coefficients, except for RLCRF in PC1. However, the RSCRF relative contributions from PC1 and PC2 are overestimated, while the relative contribution from PC3 is underes timated in both BCC_AGCM versions. The RLCRF relative contribution is underestimated for PC2 and overestimated for PC3.     

Data-driven Estimation of Cloud Effects on Surface Irradiance at Xianghe,a Suburban Site on the North China Plain

Clouds are a dominant modulator of the energy budget. The cloud shortwave radiative effect at the surface (CRE) is closely related to the cloud macro- and micro-physical properties. Systematic observation of surface irradiance and cloud properties are needed to narrow uncertainties in CRE. In this study, 1-min irradiance and Total Sky Imager measurements from 2005 to 2009 at Xianghe in North China Plain are used to estimate cloud types, evaluate cloud fraction (CF), and quantify the sensitivities of surface irradiance with respect to changes in CF whether clouds obscure the sun or not. The annual mean CF is 0.50, further noting that CF exhibits a distinct seasonal variation, with a minimum in winter (0.37) and maximum in summer (0.68). Cumulus occurs more frequently in summer (32%), which is close to the sum of the occurrence of stratus and cirrus. The annual CRE is –54.4 W m^–2, with seasonal values ranging from –29.5 W m^–2 in winter and –78.2 W m^–2 in summer. When clouds do not obscure the sun, CF is a dominant factor affecting diffuse irradiance, which in turn affects global irradiance. There is a positive linear relationship between CF and CRE under sun-unobscured conditions, the mean sensitivity of CRE for each CF 0.1 increase is about 1.2 W m^–2 [79.5° < SZA (Solar Zenith Angle) < 80.5°] to 7.0 W m^–2 (29.5° < SZA < 30.5°). When clouds obscure the sun, CF affects both direct and diffuse irradiance, resulting in a non-linear relationship between CF and CRE, and the slope decreases with increasing CF. It should be noted that, although only data at Xianghe is used in this study, our results are representative of neighboring areas, including most parts of the North China Plain.     

Shortwave cloud radiative forcing on major stratus cloud regions in AMIP-type simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Cloud and its radiative effects are major sources of uncertainty that lead to simulation discrepancies in climate models. In this study, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over major stratus regions is evaluated for Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations of models involved in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Over stratus regions, large deviations in both climatological mean and seasonal cycle of SWCF are found among the models. An ambient field sorted by dynamic (vertical motion) and thermodynamic (inversion strength or stability) regimes is constructed and used to measure the response of SWCF to large-scale controls. In marine boundary layer regions, despite both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models being able to capture well the center and range of occurrence frequency for the ambient field, most of the models fail to simulate the dependence of SWCF on boundary layer inversion and the insensitivity of SWCF to vertical motion. For eastern China, there are large differences even in the simulated ambient fields. Moreover, almost no model can reproduce intense SWCF in rising motion and high stability regimes. It is also found that models with a finer grid resolution have no evident superiority than their lower resolution versions. The uncertainties relating to SWCF in state-of-the-art models may limit their performance in IPCC experiments.     

CloudSat/CALIPSO卫星资料分析云的全球分布及其季节变化特征

全球气候模式（GCM）中云的参数化方案具有不确定性,了解云的时、空变化能为参数化方案提供有效参考。利用搭载在属于A-Train卫星序列的CloudSat和CALIPSO上的94 GHz云廓线雷达（CPR）以及正交极化云-气溶胶激光雷达（CALIOP）联合的2级云分类产品,分析了2007年3月-2010年2月8种云类及三相态的云量地理分布、纬向垂直分布的季节变化特征以及云层分布概率。结果发现,卷云的分布体系与深对流云相似,主要集中在西太平洋暖池、全球各季风区及赤道辐合带,分布格局与气压带、风带季节性移动一致。层云与层积云主要分布在中低纬度非季风区以及中高纬度的洋面上。高积云与高层云的分布形成明显的海陆差异,雨层云与积云的分布形成明显的纬度差异。冰云分布与卷云相似,云高随纬度递增而递减;水云分布与层积云相似,平均分布于2 km高度;混合云集中于高纬度地区及赤道辐合带,中纬度地区随纬度变化集中于海拔0-10 km的弧形带。层状云多以多层云形式出现,积状云多以单、双层云的形式出现,层状云的云重叠现象比积状云更显著。积状和层状云的分布特征与积云和层云降水的分布特征基本一致,验证了不同类型降水的卫星观测结果,同时为气候模式的云量诊断方案提供对比验证的数据。      

A comparison of AMIP II model cloud layer properties with ISCCP D2 estimates

The cloud amounts and liquid and ice water paths as a function of height in five Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II models have been compared to International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) d2 observations. The model layer data have been transformed to the ISCCP low, mid and height cloud amount and vertically integrated water values. In addition a simple radiative transfer model has been used to transform both model output and ISCCP cloud amount and water contents into top of atmosphere albedos for the low, mid and high cloud fractions. Overall, most models represent moderately well the spatial, seasonal and interannual variability of total cloud albedo, which is largely a function of the total cloud amount. The models also tend to predict moderately well the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of cloud fraction, but fail to display the observed spatial, and especially, seasonal and interannual variability in cloud water path. In particular nearly all models have mid and low cloud water path variabilities, which are much larger than those observed in the ISCCP observations. This increased cloud water path variability seems to compensate partially for smaller underestimates of cloud fraction variability in most models. Furthermore, variations in cloud amount and cloud water path are much more often negatively correlated in models than in the observations. A simple estimate of the influence of cloud overlap suggests that monthly mean model cloud layers are less stacked in the vertical in models than in an observational estimate based upon a combination of satellite and ground-based observations.     

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.     

山西夏季层积云降水微物理特征分析

利用Droplet Measureinent TeehnologY（DMT）资料,分析了山西2008年7月17日降水性层积云的云微物理结构,通过对云中粒子浓度、直径、二维图像以及谱型分布变化,并结合宏观记录特征,详细分析了飞机上升和下降阶段云系的垂直结构特征。结果表明：飞机上升阶段云系为高积云,飞机下降阶段云系为高积云一层积云结构,Cloud Droplet Probe（CDP）和Cloud Imaging Probe（CIP）测得粒子浓度偏大,最大浓度分别为236em。和9．74cm^-3。层积云云中微物理量水平分布特征具有明显的不均匀性。上升阶段降水的雨滴主要是冰粒子融化形成的,冷云过程占主导地位,在0℃层附近存在明显的融化层亮带。下降阶段降水机制为高积云冷云过程和层积云暖云过程相结合。     

Stochastic and deterministic multicloud parameterizations for tropical convection

Despite recent advances in supercomputing, current general circulation models poorly represent the variability associated with organized tropical convection. In a recent study, the authors have shown, in the context of a paradigm two baroclinic mode system, that a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) can be used to improve the variability and the dynamical structure of tropical convection. Here, the stochastic multicloud model is modified with a lag type stratiform closure and augmented with an explicit mechanism for congestus detrainment moistening. These modifications improve the representation of intermittent coherent structures such as synoptic and mesoscale convective systems. Moreover, the new stratiform-lag closure allows for increased robustness of the coherent features of the model with respect to the amount of stochastic noise and leading to a multi-scale organization of slowly moving waves envelopes in which short-lived and chaotic convective events persist. Congestus cloud decks dominate the suppressed-dry phase of the wave envelopes. The simulations with the new closure have a higher amount of stochastic noise and result in a Walker type circulation with realistic mean and coherent variability which surpasses results of previous deterministic and stochastic multicloud models in the same parameter regime. Further, deterministic mean field limit equations (DMFLE) for the stochastic multicloud model are considered. Aside from providing a link to the deterministic multicloud parameterization, the DMFLE allow a judicious way of determining the amount of deterministic and stochastic “chaos” in the system. It is shown that with the old stratiform heating closure, the stochastic process accounts for most of the chaotic behavior. The simulations with the new stratiform heating closure exhibit a mixture of stochastic and deterministic chaos. The highly chaotic dynamics in the simulations with congestus detrainment mechanism is due to the strongly nonlinear and numerically stiff deterministic dynamics. In the latter two cases, the DMFLE can be viewed as a “standalone” parameterization, which is capable of capturing some dynamical features of the stochastic parameterization. Furthermore, it is shown that, in spatially extended simulations, the stochastic multicloud model can capture qualitatively two local statistical features of the observations: long and short auto-correlation times of moisture and precipitation, respectively and the approximate power-law in the probability density of precipitation event size for large precipitation events. The latter feature is not reproduced in the column simulations. This fact underscores the importance of gravity waves and large scale moisture convergence.     

Turbulence in Continental Stratocumulus,Part II: Eddy Dissipation Rates and Large-Eddy Coherent Structures

This study first illustrates the utility of using the Doppler spectrum width from millimetre wavelength radar to calculate the energy dissipation rate and then to use the energy dissipation rate to study turbulence structure in a continental stratocumulus cloud. It is shown that the turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate calculated from the radar-measured Doppler spectrum width agrees well with that calculated from the Doppler velocity power spectrum. During the 16-h stratocumulus cloud event, the small-scale turbulence contributes 40 % of the total velocity variance at cloud base, 50 % at normalized cloud depth = 0.8 and 70 % at cloud top, which suggests that small-scale turbulence plays a critical role near the cloud top where the entrainment and cloud-top radiative cooling act. The 16-h mean vertical integral length scale decreases from about 160 m at cloud base to 60 m at cloud top, and this signifies that the larger scale turbulence dominates around cloud base whereas the small-scale turbulence dominates around cloud top. The energy dissipation rate, total variance and squared spectrum width exhibit diurnal variations, but unlike marine stratocumulus they are high during the day and lowest around sunset at all levels; energy dissipation rates increase at night with the intensification of the cloud-top cooling. In the normalized coordinate system, the averaged coherent structure of updrafts is characterized by low energy dissipation rates in the updraft core and higher energy dissipation rates surround the updraft core at the top and along the edges. In contrast, the energy dissipation rate is higher inside the downdraft core indicating that the downdraft core is more turbulent. The turbulence around the updraft is weaker at night and stronger during the day; the opposite is true around the downdraft. This behaviour indicates that the turbulence in the downdraft has a diurnal cycle similar to that observed in marine stratocumulus whereas the turbulence diurnal cycle in the updraft is reversed. For both updraft and downdraft, the maximum energy dissipation rate occurs at a cloud depth = 0.8 where the maximum reflectivity and air acceleration or deceleration are observed. Resolved turbulence dominates near cloud base whereas unresolved turbulence dominates near cloud top. Similar to the unresolved turbulence, the resolved turbulence described by the radial velocity variance is higher in the downdraft than in the updraft. The impact of the surface heating on the resolved turbulence in the updraft decreases with height and diminishes around the cloud top. In both updrafts and downdrafts, the resolved turbulence increases with height and reaches a maximum at cloud depth = 0.4 and then decreases to the cloud top; the resolved turbulence near cloud top, just as the unresolved turbulence, is mostly due to the cloud-top radiative cooling.     

DISCREPANCY OF THE GLOBAL AIR MASS AND WATER BUDGETS AMONG 20 CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS

The consistency of global atmospheric mass and water budget performance in 20 state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models has been assessed in a historical experiment. All the models realistically reproduce a climatological annual mean of global air mass (AM) close to the ERA-Interim AM during 1989–2005. Surprisingly, the global AM in half of the models shows nearly no seasonal variation, which does not agree with the seasonal processes of global precipitable water or water vapor, given the mass conservation constraint. To better understand the inconsistencies, we evaluated the seasonal cycles of global AM tendency and water vapor source (evaporation minus precipitation). The results suggest that the inconsistencies result from the poor balance between global AM tendency and water vapor source based on the global AM budget equation. Moreover, the cross-equatorial dry air mass ?ux, or hemispheric dry mass divergence, is not well represented in any of the 20 CMIP5 models, which show a poorly matched seasonal cycle and notably larger amplitude, compared with the hemispheric tendencies of dry AM in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Pronounced erroneous estimations of tropical precipitation also occur in these models. We speculate that the large inaccuracy of precipitation and possibly evaporation in the tropics is one of the key factors for the inconsistent cross-equatorial mass ?ux. A reasonable cross-equatorial mass ?ux in well-balanced hemispheric air mass and moisture budgets remains a challenge for both reanalysis assimilation systems and climate modeling.     

A process oriented characterization of tropical oceanic clouds for climate model evaluation, based on a statistical analysis of daytime A-train observations

This paper aims at characterizing how different key cloud properties (cloud fraction, cloud vertical distribution, cloud reflectance, a surrogate of the cloud optical depth) vary as a function of the others over the tropical oceans. The correlations between the different cloud properties are built from 2?years of collocated A-train observations (CALIPSO-GOCCP and MODIS) at a scale close to cloud processes; it results in a characterization of the physical processes in tropical clouds, that can be used to better understand cloud behaviors, and constitute a powerful tool to develop and evaluate cloud parameterizations in climate models. First, we examine a case study of shallow cumulus cloud observed simultaneously by the two sensors (CALIPSO, MODIS), and develop a methodology that allows to build global scale statistics by keeping the separation between clear and cloudy areas at the pixel level (250, 330?m). Then we build statistical instantaneous relationships between the cloud cover, the cloud vertical distribution and the cloud reflectance. The vertical cloud distribution indicates that the optically thin clouds (optical thickness <1.5) dominate the boundary layer over the trade wind regions. Optically thick clouds (optical thickness >3.4) are composed of high and mid-level clouds associated with deep convection along the ITCZ and SPCZ and over the warm pool, and by stratocumulus low level clouds located along the East coast of tropical oceans. The cloud properties are analyzed as a function of the large scale circulation regime. Optically thick high clouds are dominant in convective regions (CF?>?80?%), while low level clouds with low optical thickness (<3.5) are present in regimes of subsidence but in convective regimes as well, associated principally to low cloud fractions (CF?<?50?%). A focus on low-level clouds allows us to quantify how the cloud optical depth increases with cloud top altitude and with cloud fraction.     

山西夏季层积云降水微物理特征分析

利用Droplet Measurement Technology(DMT)资料,分析了山西2008年7月17日降水性层积云的云微物理结构,通过对云中粒子浓度、平均直径、二维图像以及谱型分布变化,并结合宏观记录特征,详细分析了飞机上升和下降阶段云系的垂直结构特征。结果表明,飞机上升阶段云系为高积云,下降阶段云系为高积云—层积云结构,云粒子探头(Cloud Droplet Probe,CDP)和云粒子图像探头(Cloud Imaging Probe,CIP)测得粒子浓度偏大,最大浓度分别为236cm-3和9.74cm-3。层积云云中微物理量水平分布特征具有明显的不均匀性。飞机上升阶段降水的雨滴主要是冰粒子融化形成的,冷云过程占主导地位,在0℃层附近存在明显的融化层亮带。飞机下降阶段降水机制为高积云冷云过程和层积云暖云过程相结合。     

A comparison of low-latitude cloud properties and their response to climate change in three AGCMs sorted into regimes using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity

Low-latitude cloud distributions and cloud responses to climate perturbations are compared in near-current versions of three leading U.S. AGCMs, the NCAR CAM 3.0, the GFDL AM2.12b, and the NASA GMAO NSIPP-2 model. The analysis technique of Bony et al. (Clim Dyn 22:71–86, 2004) is used to sort cloud variables by dynamical regime using the monthly mean pressure velocity ω at 500 hPa from 30S to 30N. All models simulate the climatological monthly mean top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) adequately in all ω-regimes. However, they disagree with each other and with ISCCP satellite observations in regime-sorted cloud fraction, condensate amount, and cloud-top height. All models have too little cloud with tops in the middle troposphere and too much thin cirrus in ascent regimes. In subsidence regimes one model simulates cloud condensate to be too near the surface, while another generates condensate over an excessively deep layer of the lower troposphere. Standardized climate perturbation experiments of the three models are also compared, including uniform SST increase, patterned SST increase, and doubled CO₂ over a mixed layer ocean. The regime-sorted cloud and CRF perturbations are very different between models, and show lesser, but still significant, differences between the same model simulating different types of imposed climate perturbation. There is a negative correlation across all general circulation models (GCMs) and climate perturbations between changes in tropical low cloud cover and changes in net CRF, suggesting a dominant role for boundary layer cloud in these changes. For some of the cases presented, upper-level clouds in deep convection regimes are also important, and changes in such regimes can either reinforce or partially cancel the net CRF response from the boundary layer cloud in subsidence regimes. This study highlights the continuing uncertainty in both low and high cloud feedbacks simulated by GCMs.