济南市人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展研究

人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展是推进新型城镇化的重点所在。通过构建指标评价体系和评价模型,从"人口—土地"协调的视角分析演算1995—2013年济南市的城镇化水平与协调发展状态。研究结果表明,济南市城镇化整体协调发展度从1995年的严重失调衰退阶段发展到2013年的优质协调发展阶段,但是从2008开始,人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化发展,表现出一定的失调现象。研究结果可以为制定地区城镇化发展策略提供科学依据。     

城乡建设用地扩展边界划定技术探讨简

人类社会。在由农业文明转入工业文明及随后的后工业文明的过程中,人口结构由农业人口占多数转为非农人口占多数,用地结构由村庄为主转为城镇为主,前者即人口城镇化,后者即土地城镇化。在这种工业化和城镇化的大潮中,大量人口由乡村向城镇集聚,     

自然资源部通报全国城市区域建设用地节约集约利用评价情况

正日前,自然资源部发布了《全国城市区域建设用地节约集约利用评价情况通报》。通报显示,近年来,全国城市区域集约用地水平逐年提高,建设用地总规模的增幅保持较低水平,城乡用地内部结构持续优化,建设用地投入产出效益持续提升,经济增长的用地消耗不断下降,土地城镇化快于人口城镇化的趋势初步扭转。为贯彻落实"节约优先"战略,全面掌握城市土地利用状况,切实提高城市节约集约用地水平,原国土资源部连续3年组织开展了城     

城镇化，呼唤国土挑大梁

3月6日下午,全国政协首次提案办理协商会,将主题锁定为"积极稳妥推进城镇化,着力提高城镇化质量"。"城镇化的核心,是处理‘人、地、粮’三者的关系。"协商会上,全国政协委员、九三学社副主席赖明的观点,引起代表、委员的共鸣。"人、地、粮"的关系如何处理?在众多代表、委员的建议中,深化土地制度改革,始终是躲不开、绕不过的大课题。提升城镇化质量,呼唤国土挑大梁。"人":土地城镇化快于人口城镇     

河南省人地挂钩模式探析河析

正人地挂钩是近年来国家探索解决新型城镇化和土地节约集约过程中用地矛盾问题所采取的新政策。2011年国务院下发《国务院关于支持河南省加快建设中原经济区的指导意见》(国发〔2011〕32号),提出人地挂钩政策河南先行先试的明确要求,这是国家对河南的一个"特许",旨在推进城镇建设用地增加规模与吸纳农村人口定居规模相挂钩,加快城乡统筹发展,实现以人为核心的城镇化。     

加快城镇化不是要加快土地城镇化——对城镇化进程中土地城镇化大大超前于人口城镇化问题的思考

从2013年开始,城镇化几乎成了一个专有名词。包括著名学者樊纲在内的很多专家,都在依此为未来的中国拟定发展的蓝图。然而,城镇化果真是加快中国发展的一条不疑的道路吗？加快城镇化就是加快土地城镇化吗？对此,我们真的应该深思。     

山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长协调性研究

新型城镇化是以人为核心的城镇化,山东半岛城市群作为我国11个国家级城市群之一,近年来城镇化发展速度不断加快。以山东半岛城市群8个设区城市为研究对象,通过构建城市土地扩张与人口增长协调关系模型,计算8个城市的土地扩张与人口增长协调度,并根据城市土地扩张与人口增长的协调性分级标准,把1994年和2013年8个城市的土地扩张与人口增长协调性关系进行分等定级评价。结果表明:山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长的协调性较弱,呈现出土地快速扩张态势。8个城市中有5个城市表现为土地快速扩张,其中2个城市表现为土地显著扩张,3个城市表现为土地明显扩张;人地基本协调的仅有3个,协调性空间分异明显。针对8个城市土地扩张与人口增长间不同类型的协调度,提出发展建议,促进山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长协调发展,提高城镇化发展质量。     

专家谈新型城镇化规划 人到哪去,钱从哪来,地怎么管？

＂这是一部指导我国走新型城镇化道路的纲领性文件,内容全面丰富,总结并吸取了国内外城镇化工作的经验教训,指导性强,意义深远。＂中国国际经济交流中心信息部部长徐洪才说。他说,为了避免走弯路,这份文件认真总结了我国近年来城镇化的经验教训,包括：土地城镇化快于人口城镇化,建设用地粗放低效;城市管理服务水平不高,“城市病”问题日益突出等。这份文件详细剖析了建设用地粗放低效等问题：一些城市“摊大饼”式扩张,过分追求宽马路、大广场,新城新区、开发区和工业园区占地过大,建成区人口密度偏低;一些地方过度依赖土地出让收入和土地抵押融资推进城镇建设,加剧了土地粗放利用,浪费了大量耕地资源,威胁到国家粮食安全和生态安全,也加大了地方政府性债务等财政金融风险。     

山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调特征研究

新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调发展是推动我国土地利用水平迈上新台阶的重要抓手,也是在新时代时期推进城乡融合的重要支撑。本文通过熵权法和耦合协调模型,探究了山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调特征,研究发现：山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调性总体表现为不均衡特征,各地市综合评价结果差距较大。山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合度空间部分区域差异显著,以高水平耦合为主,且呈“工”字形分布。山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴协调度空间分布呈“东高西低”态势,以低水平协调为主。提出了推进山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调发展的对策建议。     

基于普查和手机定位数据的乡镇尺度人口空间化方法研究

人口在空间上的实际分布是人口地理学研究的基础和热点问题。目前全球不同尺度的人口空间化数据产品因生产方法、数据源等有较大差异,空间化产品的一致性存在较大差异,尤其是共性需求集中的1 km数据产品。本文以京津冀地区为研究区,基于2000年乡镇尺度的人口普查数据和可开放获得的手机定位数据,利用光影投射法计算人口分布权重,结合面积权重法和指数平滑法得到京津冀地区1 km分辨率的人口空间化结果PJ2000。该产品较好地反映了京津冀人口实际分布细节特征。经精度评定,PJ2000人口空间化的总体精度为90%,人口空间化相对误差小于0.5的乡镇（街道）数约占87%,PJ2000与2000年乡镇街道人口统计数据pop2000的相关系数r高达0.95。结果证明,结合乡镇尺度人口统计数据和手机定位数据等多源数据所构建的人口空间化模型,所获1 km分辨率人口密度数据集精度得到显著提高。     

The Interaction of Population,Industry and Land in Process of Urbanization in China: A Case Study in Jilin Province

Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The contradiction between population, industry and land urbanization is especially prominent here, and its coupling development is of great practical significance. In this paper, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province in 1990, 2000 and 2010 is measured by coupling mode. The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is analyzed by trend surface analysis and global and local spatial autocorrelation. The influence factors and their spatial differentiation are discussed using multiple linear regression (MLR) model and geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that: 1) the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province is at a low level. Judging from the change of time scale, the urbanization of most research units is becoming more and more coordinated. From the comparison of spatial scales, there is significant spatial difference in the research units of different administrative levels. 2) Judging from the global change trend, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in the central region is higher than that in western and eastern regions. The coordination of urbanization in the central region is relatively good, and the distribution of the cold and hot spots is basically the same as that overall. 3) The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is related to the cold and hot spot distribution of the influence coefficient of urban population density and per capita urban construction land. The variation of the coupling degree spatial pattern is synchronous with the spatial change of the urban population density influence coefficient. 4) The degree of agglomeration of the urban population is the main factor promoting the coupling pattern of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province, and the extent of its influence is gradually increasing. In addition, the level of city administrative, the efficiency of urban expansion and the capacity of market consumption also have an important influence on the coupling pattern.     

KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY OF REMOTELY SENSED DATA FROM ECOLOGICAL VIEW ——A Case Study of Urban Spatial—temporal Relationship in the Pearl River Delta

From the ecological viewpoint this paper discusses the urban spatial-temporal relationship.We take regional towns and cities as a complex man-land system of urban eco-community,This complex man-land system comprises two elements of “man“ and “land“,Here,“man“ means organization with self-determined consciousness,and “land“ means the physical environment (niche ) that “man “depends on .The complex man-land system has three basic components,They are individual,population and community,Therefore there are six types of spatial relationship for the complex man-land system.They are individual,population,community,man-man,land-land and man-land spatial realtionships,Taking the Pearl(Zhujiang) River Delta as a case study,the authors found some evidence of the urban spatial relationship from the remote sensing data,Firstly,the concentration and diffusion of the cities spatial relationship was found in the remote sensing imagery,Most of the cities concentrate in the core area of the Pearl River Delta ,but the diffusion situation is also significant ,Secondly,the growth behavior and succession behavior of the urban spatial relationship was found in the remote sensing images comparison with different temporal data ,Thirdly,the inheritance,break ,or meeting emergency behavior was observed from the remoted sensing data.Fourthly,the authors found many cases of symbiosis and competi-tion in the remote sensing data of the Pearl River Delta ,Fifthly,The autoeciousness,stranglehold and invasion behavior of the urban spatial relationship was discovered from the remote sensing data.     

基于地理分区与FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟与预警

城市的快速扩张不断改变着土地资源的转化,带来了诸多生态环境问题。分析和模拟城市扩张的机制,并对城市未来土地利用变化的风险进行预警,利于合理调控城市的发展。本文提出了一种基于地理分区和未来用地模拟(Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS)模型的城市扩张模拟模型,用于模拟和预测复杂的土地利用变化。该模型利用多指标数据进行空间聚类,耦合地理分区结果进行城市扩张模拟。珠江三角洲2005-2015年的城市扩张模拟结果显示,分区下的模拟精度(FoM=0.2329,提高了9%)明显高于未分区,说明不同分区在土地利用转化上存在空间差异,该模型能更有效地模拟城市土地利用变化。另外,本文构建了一种城市扩张预警指标评价体系,用于评估城市扩张的警情。根据在2005-2015基础上预测的2025-2045年土地利用变化结果,对珠江三角洲城市扩张进行多尺度预警分析。综合预警结果显示该区域大部分城市至2045年城市扩张警情将达到中警和重警,其中东莞警情一直维持在重警。由此,未来需要加强对珠三角城市扩张的宏观调控,以此来缓解未来城市扩张的警情。     

Regional Differences of China′s Urban Expansion from Late 20th to Early 21st Century Based on Remote Sensing Information

This study investigated the regional differences of China′s urban land expansion from the late 1980s to the year of 2008, based on the spatio-temporal analysis of CLCD (China′s land cover/land use database) datasets which were mainly produced from remote sensing imagery data. A newly defined urbanization level index (UI), based on urban land area, is proposed to describe Chinese urban expansion process at 1 kilometer, provincial, regional, and na-tional scales, together with the absolute urban expansion index (UEa) and the relative urbanization expansion index (UEr). The results indicate that the percentages of total land area occupied by urban in the late 1980s, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008 were approximately 0.25%, 0.32%, 0.33%, 0.43% and 0.52% of China′s total land area, respectively. Between the late 1980s and 2008, the total urban expansion in the mainland of China was 2.645 × 104 km2, resulting in an annual urban expansion area of about 1322.7 km2/yr, with the UEr of 111.9%. This study also finds that there has been an obvious spatial gradient of urbanization ratio running from the east coast to the west inland, and the urbanization gaps among different regions have persisted over the past two decades. The study also reveals obvious temporal varia-tions of the urbanization rates. There was very little urban growth during the period of 1995-2000 due to the governmental policy factors.     

EVOLVEMENT OF URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE AND MAIN DRIVES IN WUXI, CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NC hina, as a developing country, is experiencing rapidpopulation grow th and land expansion,w hich has gen-erated considerable governm entalconcernsand scholar-ly attention (FA ZA L,2000).R esearchers have revealeda m assive increase i…     

Discussion on sustainable urbanization in Tibet

After 1995,Tibet entered the stage of accelerated urbanization.The large floating population from outside Tibet has become the driving force for urban expansion and the rising of urbanization rate.After analyzing the changes of urban functions and spatial structure of urban system in Tibet,this paper argues that before 1995 the urbanization in Tibet was mainly driven by administrative function,resulting in certain population migration,whereas in the past dec-ade economic function has become the key factor accelerating urban expansion with the market mechanism creating large-scale inflow of population.The floating population-based urbanization and high population growth in the agri-cultural and pastoral areas of Tibet has promoted the regional economic prosperity,but exerted resources and environ-mental pressure and brought some problems for Tibetan culture protection at the same time.The conflicts and contra-dictions between urbanization and the sustainability of natural resources,environment and social development have been intensified.Addressing these problems,this paper proposes some countermeasures for improving the sustainabil-ity of Tibetan urbanization.     

夜光遥感大数据视角下的中国城市化时空特征

社会经济的高速发展直接驱动了中国过去几十年的持续快速城市化进程。城市化是一个典型的复杂地理现象,伴随着高密度人口聚集、土地利用改变、基础设施建设和生态环境变化等系列人和自然交互过程的发生。深入理解城市发展的时空演化规律对研究、规划、管理和相关政策制定在内的诸多领域都有十分重要的意义。近些年来,由于快速发展的夜光遥感大数据具有空间清晰的与城市化有关的社会经济活动强度的感知信息,其为探索城市和城市化问题提供了新的研究途径。虽然有许多成果对利用夜光遥感数据进行城市化的研究进行了探讨,但大部分集中在城市化面积、人口规模和其他社会经济变量的定量相关和数值统计分析上,仍然缺乏对中国过去几十年来的城市化时空特征的综合多角度分析和理解。本研究利用1992-2013年的夜光遥感时间序列大数据,从夜光照亮面积、亮度变化时间转折点、不同亮度区的空间结构转换和亮度信号的空间扩散速度4个方面进行了定量化的信息提取与分析。研究结果从夜光辐射遥感大数据的视角综合揭示了中国在过去研究期间包括城市空间扩展、城市化发展的时间分布、城市空间结构演化和城市化活动空间扩散速度在内的定量时空特征。本研究的结果可以为深入理解中国城市化的时空模式与演化特征提供新的参考。     

Reconsideration of the urbanization research in China

Theappearanceofmodemurbancommunityisanoutcomeofindustrializationandsocialdevelopment.ThecityitseIfindicatestheconcentrationofpopulation,toolofproduction,capital,enjoymentanddemand.Asaspecialintensive1ivingspace,citymay,inthecourseofmodernization,gatherandagglomeratevariousre-sourcestoitsown,andreflectandspreaditsfunctionstoperipheralareasaswell,whichistheprocessofur-banization.Nomatterasatermoraphenomenon,sinceitwasfirstused'intheworks"FundamentalTheoryofU,ba.i.ati.."bytheSpanishengineerA.S…     

近20年烟台主城区土地利用变化特征与驱动分析

以TM影像为基本数据源,结合土地利用现状图和土地详查数据,分析了烟台主城区1992年以来土地利用空间扩张特征与机制,以能够更好地对城市进行科学规划控制,促进城市经济协调发展。通过对1992年及2013年TM遥感影像进行处理分析,结合烟台市的社会经济统计数据,得出结论：烟台市1992年到2013年城市空间扩张向西面及沿海方向发展;城市建筑用地面积增加较多,耕地和水域面积则呈减小趋势。影响城市土地利用空间扩张的驱动因子主要是经济发展、人口增长、产业结构、交通发展及国家政策等,其中经济发展和人口增长是促进烟台城市土地利用空间扩张的主要因素。