中国崩滑堵江事件及其环境效应研究

崩滑堵江事件在世界范围内,尤其在山区广泛存在.中国也是崩滑堵江现象较为多发的国家之一.笔者在长达十余年的研究基础上,收集和调查了170余起典型崩滑堵江事件,并以岷江和金沙江流域为重点进行了现场调查.在此基础上,以系统论为指导思想,研究了崩滑堵江事件的全过程,并对其发育分布规律、类型及特点、堵江危险度评价、溃坝洪水灾害、环境效应以及综合治理利用等进行了全面深入研究.     

基于改进SPH模型的溃坝洪水演进模拟方法

溃坝洪水演进模拟的准确性是制约水库洪水预演有效性的关键。基于光滑粒子流体动力学(Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics, SPH)方法提出了适用于溃坝洪水演进分析的数值模拟方法。通过设置溃口粒子与粒子库,基于黎曼不变量对SPH粒子状态进行修正,构建施加边界条件的改进SPH溃坝洪水演进模型,将SPH瞬时全溃整体模型转换为考虑溃口水流变化的入流边界模型,实现SPH方法与溃口计算模型的耦合。以Malpasset溃坝事件为例,检验了该模型计算溃坝洪水的精度,结果表明该模型精度相对较高,与实测值吻合较好;应用该模型模拟了某水库溃坝洪水演进预演过程,评估其对下游输水干渠及交叉建筑物排水倒虹吸的洪水冲击风险,结果表明在上游水库遭遇超标准洪水漫顶溃坝工况下,洪水演进至排水倒虹吸处的最大洪水位未超过校核洪水位。改进SPH模型精度高,可靠性强,与溃口计算模型耦合性好,可作为溃坝洪水演进模拟的通用手段之一。     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

云南山区水库溃坝洪水及其演进分析

受地形影响,西南山区水源以水库为主,由于大部分水库修建时间较早,在西南季风气候降水集中影响下,存在较大的溃坝风险。溃坝洪水突发性与破坏性极强,进行水库溃坝洪水计算及洪水演进分析,是在水库大坝发生突发性安全事故时科学应对的基础。结合西南山区实际,优选溃坝洪水计算与洪水演进模型,并以云南省昌宁县河西水库为例,分析确定相关参数,分析指出了西南山区水库溃坝形态以全溃为主,具有溃坝洪水量极大、洪水演进迅速的特点。研究不仅可为河西水库制定大坝安全管理应急预案提供技术支撑,也能为该地区水库溃坝洪水及其演进分析提供参考借鉴。     

易贡滑坡-碎屑流-堰塞坝溃坝链生灾害全过程模拟与动态特征分析

为研究易贡滑坡-堰塞坝溃坝链生灾害的动力学特征,基于遥感影像数据建立三维数值模型,运用DAN3D和FLOW3D对易贡滑坡-碎屑流-堰塞坝溃坝全过程进行模拟研究。运用DAN3D模拟滑坡-碎屑流过程,得到滑坡碎屑堆积分布特征及速度变化规律,滑坡持续时间300 s,平均速度35 m/s。基于DAN3D获得的滑坡碎屑堆积分布建立等比例堰塞坝模型,运用FLOW3D模拟溃坝后洪水演进过程,得到洪水演进过程水流特征变化规律,通麦大桥处洪峰流量130 000 m3/s与实测值接近。对易贡滑坡灾害链全过程的模拟和动态特征分析可为高山峡谷区类似的滑坡-堰塞坝溃坝链生灾害风险评价提供参考。     

四川什邡青牛沱崩塌群特征及其形成的堰塞坝体稳定性评价

2008-5.12地震中,由于当时强烈的地震作用,使得地震灾区地表变形巨大,生态环境严重破坏。地震诱发的地质灾害威胁着灾区人民群众的生命财产安全,震中地区出现的主要灾害形式为边坡的崩滑及崩滑堆积体堵江（河、路）。本文通过对青牛沱崩塌群及崩滑堵江形成堰塞湖的基本特征的论述,分析了其形成机制和产生的危害特征,最后因地制宜地提出了防治对策。为在恶劣环境下的地质灾害评价和防治提供了一套完整的技术思路,也为以后相似情况下的其他地区的灾害评价、防治提供参考。     

溃坝洪水特征及计算方法探析

溃坝的发生和溃坝洪水的形成属于非正常和难于预测的事件,计算溃坝洪水的大小可以大致确定水库下游影响范围和到达下游的时间,为溃坝洪水的防范提供依据。本文以甘肃某水库为研究对象,对溃坝洪水进行计算,可计算出下游各断面溃坝洪峰与溃坝水位,确定溃坝洪水淹没范围,并根据下游淹没的重要城镇的社会经济状况,估算下游溃坝淹没损失,最终发现溃坝后果比较严重,而水库实际抗洪能力略低于国家现行规范要求,需采取坝顶加高处理措施,使坝顶高程与溢洪道顶高程齐平,使水库防洪标准达到500 a,保证水库安全运行,为下游重点城市和人民群众提供安全保障。     

溃坝洪水分析及影响研究——以陕北地区瑶镇水库为例

为研究溃坝洪水带来的影响,以陕北地区的瑶镇水库为例,采用洪水演进模拟和GIS技术等先进的溃坝分析技术,对水库遭遇五十年一遇洪水下右岸与非溢流坝连接的副坝段溃坝洪水演进过程、水深及淹没范围、流速分布及流速矢量分布展开评估,重点对溃坝洪水对水库下游产生的影响进行分析,从而得出相应结论。研究结果认为:受溃坝洪水影响最大的是瑶镇地区,水流最大流速均发生在主河道区域,五百年一遇洪水淹没范围与五十年一遇洪水淹没面积相比增加明显。瑶镇水库溃坝不会对下游的采兔沟水库安全产生很大影响。研究结果对本区域溃坝洪水及未来研究提供了参考依据。     

三河口水利枢纽上游围堰工程溃坝风险分析

三河口水利枢纽工程导流标准为10 a一遇,相应的上游围堰采用土石围堰,10 a一遇设计标准,在施工期挡水运行。子午河为季节性河流,夏季易发生暴雨,具有历时短,强度大的特点,如发生超标洪水,存在溃决的风险,溃决洪水具有历时段、洪峰流量大的特点,对上游围堰以下河段分布的部分城镇带来一定影响。根据围堰的坝体的材料和特点,拟定溃决方式为逐渐溃决进行溃坝洪水计算,根据河道特性进行沿程洪水演进分析,结合演进分析对下游村镇洪泛区进行普查,根据溃坝洪水对下游群众的生命安全是否造成灾害确定溃坝洪水范围。通过对该工程溃坝洪水风险分析,如发生溃坝,会对下游的城镇和群众造成一定的损失和影响,并提出加强水情测报、保证工程质量以及下游群众撤离方案等防止和减小溃坝影响的措施,同时建议应将围堰工程溃坝影响分析纳入施工专业导截流方案比选的一个条件。     

金沙江上游雪隆囊古滑坡堰塞湖溃坝堆积体的发现及其环境与灾害意义

西藏芒康县金沙江上游雪隆囊河谷史前时期(全新世晚期)发生了一次明显的堰塞事件,形成了一个湖水体积约3.1×108 m3的大型堰塞湖。该堰塞湖形成后期发生溃决并引发异常大洪水,这一溃决事件发生在大约1 117 A.D.。地震诱发山体滑坡可能是金沙江发生堰塞的直接原因。在雪隆囊古堰塞坝体的下游一侧到其下游3.5 km的范围内,发现大量由砾石、砂和少量黏土组成的混杂堆积体,判定其为滑坡堰塞湖的溃坝堆积,是滑坡坝体及上游河床物质在坝体溃决后快速堆积形成。整套溃坝堆积体具有支撑-叠置构造、叠瓦构造和杂基构造等沉积特征,还具有一种特殊的沉积构造:即在垂向剖面上发育粗砾石层与细砂砾层的韵律互层,但剖面中缺少砾或砂的透镜体。这种沉积构造("互层构造")是溃坝堆积相区别于冲-洪积相、泥石流相等的一种重要判别标志。采用水力学模型反演确定雪隆囊古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水的平均流速为7.48 m/s,最大洪峰流量为10 786 m3/s。雪隆囊溃坝堆积体沉积特征及其环境的研究,不但有助于揭示古洪水事件发生的过程和机制,同时对于认识金沙江上游地区的环境演变也具有重要意义。     

Quantitative dam break analysis on a reservoir earth dam

Mathematical simulations on dam break or failure using BOSS DAMBRK hydrodynamic flood routing dam break model were carried out to determine the extent of flooding downstream, flood travel times, flood water velocities and impacts on downstream affected residences, properties and environmental sensitive areas due to floodwaters released by failure of the dam structure. Computer simulations for one of the worse case scenarios on dam failure using BOSS DAMBRK software accounted for dam failure, storage effects, floodplains, over bank flow and flood wave attenuation. The simulated results reviewed a maximum flow velocity of 2.40 m/s with a discharge of approximately 242 mз /s occurred at 1.00 km downstream. The maximum discharge increased from 244 m³/s (flow velocity = 1.74 m/s occurred at 8^th. km) to 263 m³/s (flow velocity = 1.37 m/s occurred at 12^th. km); about a 39% drop in flow velocity over a distance of 4.00 km downstream. If the entire dam gives way instantly, some spots stretching from 0.00 km (at dam site) to approximately 3.40 km downstream of the dam may be categorized as “danger zone”, while downstream hazard and economic loss beyond 3.40 km downstream can be classified as “low” or “minimal” zones.     

Assessment of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in Nepal

Flood and sediment disasters caused by glacial lake outbursts have occurred frequently in recent years in the Himalayas of Nepal. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic flooding in downstream areas with serious damage to lives and property. It is thus important to investigate outburst floods from potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, the characteristics of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake due to two types of moraine dam failure caused by seepage flow or water overtopping were analyzed with various scenarios by using integrated modeling system of three numerical models: (1) the flow and bed-surface erosion model, (2) the seepage model and (3) the slope stability model. Flood inundation areas were also identified by using the numerical model of the flow and moraine dam failure and geographical information system tools. Possible threats and damages due to the potential GLOF events from the lake were also analyzed based on numerical results, flood inundation maps and field investigations.     

岷江上游叠溪混杂堆积体的沉积特征及其成因分析

青藏高原东缘岷江上游叠溪河谷段在地质历史时期发生了一次大规模滑坡堵江事件,形成一个特大型堰塞湖。堰塞湖形成后在晚更新世晚期(约27 ka B.P.)发生了溃决,并在坝体下游形成长约5 km的天然混杂堆积体,判断其为叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决后形成的溃坝堆积。该套溃坝堆积体具有叠瓦构造、孔洞构造、块状构造、杂基构造、支撑—叠置构造及韵律互层构造。从上游至下游,溃坝堆积体的出露厚度逐渐变薄,砾石碎屑成分表现出由粗变细的变化趋势。溃坝堆积体是由高流态灾难性洪流及常态流和河流态两种机制形成,相应地具有两大类沉积相:巨砾层相及砾石层相和砂层相,依据溃坝堆积的地貌结构和沉积相特征可以推断叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖至少发生过一次极其罕见的灾难性溃决洪水事件。     

河流堰塞的地貌响应

堰塞作为一种极端地表过程,深刻影响着河流地貌的变化,特别是河流纵剖面的变化。其对河流纵剖面的影响主要体现在两方面:一方面,堰塞坝将抬高局地的侵蚀基准面,阻碍了上游河道侵蚀,形成河流裂点;另一方面,堰塞坝溃决往往形成大型/巨型洪水,造成下游河道和岸坡的剧烈侵蚀。稳定的堰塞坝形成后,在1~105 a的时间尺度上对河流裂点的发育以及河流纵剖面变化上甚至会超过构造、气候和岩性作用,占据主导。本文在简要概述堰塞地貌相关概念的基础上,介绍了部分河流堰塞的研究方法和案例,以及河流堰塞的发育过程和研究意义。目前多仅从堰塞坝与河流纵剖面的空间关系的相关性来论证其地貌响应,并且发现一些堰塞坝与河流纵剖面的相关性,但是也有一些古堰塞坝对现代河流纵剖面的影响并不显著,原因可能与堰塞坝规模、溃决洪水次数、堵江的持续时间和距今年代的不同有关,目前还缺乏深入研究。     

Combined numerical investigation of the Gangda paleolandslide runout and associated dam breach flood propagation in the upper Jinsha River,SE Tibetan Plateau

A large paleolandslide occurred opposite the Gangda village in the upper Jinsha River, SE Tibetan Plateau. Field geological investigations and remote sensing indicated that the Gangda paleolandslide once blocked the Jinsha River. Evidence of river blocking, including landslide dam relics, upstream lacustrine sediments, and downstream outburst sediments, has been well preserved. To understand the river-blocking event including landslide, dam breach, and associated outburst flooding, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and numerical simulations were performed in this study. OSL dating results showed that the paleolandslide dam was formed at 5.4?±?0.5 ka BP and breached at 3.4?±?0.3 ka BP, indicating that the dam lasted approximately 2000 years. The discrete element method was used to simulate the dynamics of the Gangda rock landslide based on the restored topography, while a fluid–solid coupling model was performed to simulate the landslide dam breaching and flooding. The fluid–solid coupling model can simultaneously reflect the process of landslide-dam collapse and the propagation of outburst flood. The simulated results indicate that the whole landslide process lasted about 60 s with a peak velocity of 38 m/s. It is significant that the simulated morphology of the residual landslide dam and downstream outburst sediments is consistent with the field observations. The combined numerical investigation in this paper provided new insights into the research of landscape evolution and helped to understand the chain disaster of landslide, dam breach, and flooding.

     

Landslide dam failure and flood hydraulics. Part I: experimental investigation

Landslide dam failure can trigger catastrophic flooding in the downstream. However, field observation of such flooding is rarely available, while laboratory experimental studies are sparse. The mechanism of landslide dam failure and the flood has so far remained insufficiently understood. Here, we present an experimental investigation of landslide dam failure and the flood. A total of 28 runs of experiments are carried out in a flume of 80 m × 1.2 m × 0.8 m, with differing inflow discharge, dam composition, dam geometry, and initial breach dimension. An array of twelve automatic water-level probes is deployed to measure the stage hydrographs along the flume, and the video recording of the dam failure processes facilitates an estimation of the widening of initial breach. Under the present experimental conditions with dams composed of homogeneous materials, landslide dam failure is primarily caused by erosion of overtopping flow, and lateral mass collapse is also considerable during the cause of breach widening. Cohesive clay may act to mitigate the seepage through the dam and thus its subsidence and appreciably modulate the dam failure process and the flood. However, the impacts of clay may be readily overwhelmed by a large inflow discharge and initial breach. Gravels in the dam may appreciably depress the rate of the dam failure process and thus modify the flood. The present work provides new experimental data set for testing mathematical models of the flood flow due to landslide dam failure.     

易贡滑坡堰塞湖溃坝洪水分析

滑坡堰塞坝体主要由块石、碎石土等松散材料组成,随着上游水位的不断上升,极易失稳,一旦决口将对给下游人民的生命财产安全造成极大的威胁。因此,研究堰塞坝溃坝问题具有重要的学术意义和应用价值。2000 年 4 月 9 日,西藏林芝地区波密县易贡藏布河扎木弄沟发生大规模山体滑坡堵塞易贡藏布江,形成坝高60m,长约2500m,库容可达288108m3,体积约28108～30108m3的滑坡堰塞湖, 2000年6月10日堰塞坝溃决。本文以易贡堰塞湖溃坝为例,从连续性方程及Navier Stokes方程出发,结合标准型湍流模型,并采用VOF方法进行自由面处理,基于流体计算软件Fluent模拟分析了溃坝洪水在下游弯曲河道的演进过程及不同位置的流速变化。数值模拟结果与实测资料记录基本一致,表明该模型能够模拟溃坝洪水在地形复杂弯曲河道中的演进过程。     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Glacial hazards in the Rolwaling valley of Nepal and numerical approach to predict potential outburst flood from glacial lake

In recent years, climate change and retreating glaciers constitute a major hazard in the Himalaya of South Asia. Glacial lakes are rapidly developing or increasing due to climate change. The rapid development of the lake may cause outburst of the lake. The outburst discharge from the glacial lake can cause catastrophic flooding and disaster in downstream area. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the impact of climate change on glacial lakes and to understand the characteristics of the glacial lake outburst. In this study, the field assessment of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has been presented and the impact of climate change on this glacial lake has been discussed. The Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake is the largest and most potentially dangerous glacial lake in Nepal. In addition, a numerical model has been also developed for computing the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. The numerical model is tested for the flume experimental cases. The simulated results of the outburst discharge, the dam surface erosion, and the temporal variation of the moisture movement in the dam are compared with those obtained from the hydraulic model experiments. The moisture profile calculated by numerical model was agreeable with the experimental moisture profile. The simulated failure surface of the dam due to seepage by considering the suction in slope stability analysis gave more agreeable results than the Janbu's simplified method. The results of the outburst discharge and dam surface erosion also agreed with the experimental results.