朝鲜地下核试验的地震学观测

自2006年至2017年,朝鲜民主主义人民共和国在中朝边界地区的试验场进行了6次地下核试验.本文综合报道根据东北亚地区的宽频带数字地震资料利用地震学方法对这六次地下核爆炸的研究.结果表明,朝鲜地下核试验在区域台网产生的地震记录具有典型浅源爆炸的特征.针对上述资料发展了处理核爆数据的方法并据此得出各次朝鲜核爆的地震学参数,包括事件识别、当量测定、以及震中相对定位等.对6次核爆和4次天然地震P/S类型谱振幅比的统计分析表明,2 Hz以上台网平均谱振幅比可以正确地将朝鲜核爆从天然地震中识别出来,从而有效监测在朝鲜半岛进行的当量大于0.5 kt的地下核试验.同时也发现,建立在体波-面波震级比之上的识别方法不适用于朝鲜核试验场.通过建立中朝边界地区基于Lg波的体波震级系统,计算了各次朝鲜核试验的体波震级m_b（Lg）,并由此估计了它们的地震学当量,其值介于0.5 kt至60 kt之间.由于缺少爆炸埋藏深度的数据,上述当量有可能被低估,因而有必要对深度影响做进一步研究.以第一次爆炸的位置为参考震中,利用Pn波相对走时数据和高精度相对定位方法获得了各次核爆在试验场中的精确定位.     

对朝鲜2006年、2009年和2013年3次地下核试验的相对定位

采用双差定位方法, 对朝鲜2006年、2009年和2013年的3次核试验进行相对定位.根据19个区域地震台和8个远震台的垂直分量波形资料, 计算了多种震相(P波、S波和LR波等)的互相关时差, 并由测量时差反演两两核爆的相对空间位置, 通过随机生成部分台站组合进行扰动实验以估算定位的不确定度.结果表明, 相对于朝鲜2009年核试验, 2013年核试验位于其南257 m、西385 m, 2006年核试验位于其南503 m、东2589 m.当扰动实验中随机选取的台站数目为20个时, 在95%置信度下, 朝鲜2013年和2006年核试验相对于2009年核试验的地表定位结果的不确定度约为150 m.      

朝鲜半岛两次核爆的识别

2006年10月9日10点35分和2009年5月25日8点54分朝鲜先后进行了两次核试验,震级分别为ML3.5和ML4.9.利用辽宁数字地震台网和丹东区域台网记录的朝鲜两次核爆的波形事件,采用波形特征对比、多阶小波细节分析以及S波拐角频率计算方法,对核爆进行识别与判定.     

朝鲜核爆的Rayleigh波震级测量

利用1995年至2009年中国东北及邻近地区11个宽频带台站记录到的77个地震事件、3个化学爆炸和2次朝鲜核爆的区域地震资料,标定该区域台网的Rayleigh波震级.通过对8~25 s 周期的垂直分量Rayleigh波形进行分析,获取基于最大振幅的面波震级.计算82个区域事件不同周期的台基响应,经过台基校正后取最大振幅的面波震级为事件震级.2006年和2009年两次朝鲜核爆的面波震级分别为2.93±0.19和3.62±0.21.将地震和核爆事件的面波震级M_s与体波震级m_b(Lg)进行比较,发现根据该区域台网的数据利用M_s-m_b识别方法无法鉴别朝鲜地区的核爆与地震.朝鲜核爆的面波震级相对较大,使M_s-m_b识别方法失效,其原因可能是源区介质的不均匀性、由核爆炸冲击引发的深部的拉伸破坏被抑制,或者是近爆源区存在张性的构造预应力.假定核爆可能的埋藏深度范围是0.01~1.0 km,用Rayleigh波震级估计朝鲜核爆的当量,对2006年和2009年核爆当量的估值范围分别为0.42~3.17 kt和2.06~15.53 kt.     

利用区域地震波形振幅包络约束朝鲜地下核试验的埋深和当量

核爆当量和埋藏深度是地下核试验的两个重要参数.根据中国东北地区区域范围内地震台站观测记录,利用Pn,Pg,Sn和Lg波波形,计算水平分量的尾波振幅包络,调查2006年10月9日,2009年5月25日,2013年2月13日和2016年1月6日四次朝鲜地下核试验的爆炸当量和埋藏深度.以牡丹江(MDJ)台站记录为例,对两个水平分量波形进行带通滤波,计算平均波形的振幅包络.最终得到区域地震台站水平分量振幅包络,振幅稳定,包络振幅的变化清晰地显示区域震相的位置.区域震相的时间域振幅包络由震源谱函数、传播效应、台基响应和传递函数及尾波形状函数构成.通过网格搜索的方法,拟合水平分量记录的波形包络,可以获得核爆当量和埋藏深度的估计.结果表明,朝鲜四次地下核试验爆炸当量以时间为序从0.6±0.2kt到3.0±1.5kt,增加至10.0±2.0kt,再降到8.0±2.0kt.2006年核爆的埋藏深度较浅,为150±100m,2009年朝鲜核试验的埋藏深度为350±100m,2013年和2016年朝鲜核试验的深度非常一致,均为500±200m.这些结果与前人的调查结果一致性较高,说明使用单一地震台站时间域水平分量尾波振幅包络是可能同时约束地下核试验爆炸当量和埋藏深度的.     

2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5地震峰值加速度震动图

综合考虑震中地区地质构造背景、震源机制解结果、余震分布以及我国西部地区地震动参数衰减特征,运用考虑场地效应的震动图快速生成方法,将收集到的62组强震台站的峰值加速度作为插值使用,估计了2014年8月3日云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震峰值加速度震动图. 利用地震后获得的强震记录计算了强震台站观测值与借助经验性衰减关系得到的估计值之间的系统偏差,校正了缺少台站地区借助经验性衰减关系得到的估计值,获得了校正后的峰值加速度分布图. 结果显示,鲁甸M_S6.5地震的地震动峰值加速度随距离的衰减速度比前人对我国西部衰减统计的结果更快,对数偏差校正的结果更符合本次地震的衰减规律. 校正后的峰值加速度大于40 cm/s2的区域面积近8000 km2,比未经校正的峰值加速度大于40 cm/s2的面积减小了40%左右.      

朝鲜核试验相关地震学研究进展及其文献计量学分析

朝鲜自2006年10月9日第一次开展地下核试验以来,分别于2009年5月25日、2013年2月12日、2016年1月6日、2016年9月9日和2017年9月3日相继进行了5次规模较大的核试验.由于核爆炸和天然地震的震源机制不同,可以通过核爆炸产生的地震波来进行核试验的监测,核试验相关地震学研究一直是国内外专家关注的焦点.本文分别从事件定位、性质识别、当量和埋藏深度等几个方面总结了近些年来朝鲜核试验相关地震学的研究进展,并基于文献计量学方法对朝鲜核试验相关地震学研究现状进行分析,综合结果表明,近些年基于朝鲜核试验的相关地震学研究的主要研究方向为核试验定位、当量估算以及震源深度等.     

核爆与地震的区域记录特征分析

<正>检测与识别地下核爆炸,是军控核查中的重要问题之一。在各类识别方法中,地震学方法是最主要的,识别小当量核爆炸的研究,目前已成为核爆识别的重要研究内容之一。2009年5月25日8点54分朝鲜发生了震级ML4.9的核爆事件,采用小波变换分析了该事件及附近地区发生的多个天然地震记录的时频特征,计算了该事件倒谱的特征并与天然地震的倒谱进行了比较,计算了该事件Rg波的波谱并由此估算了这次     

云南地区地壳速度模型研究及应用

选取2009~2014年发生在云南地区、每个地震均在10个以上台站有记录的7412个地震数据,作走时曲线。同时为提高精度,重点对其中每个地震均在80%以上台站有记录的、ML≥3.0的83个地震数据,再作线性分析、折合走时曲线和区间稳定性分析,结合前人研究成果得到了研究区的初始地壳速度模型。选取2010~2014年云南省内M≥3.0的200次地震,采用Hyposat批处理方法迭代初始速度模型,以及对S波作分层速度拟合,得到云南地区的地壳速度模型,即2015云南模型:v_(P1)=6.01km/s,v_(P2)=6.60km/s,v_(Pn)=7.89km/s,H_1=20km,H_2=21km,v_(S1)=3.52km/s,v_(S2)=3.86km/s,v_(sn)=4.43km/s。基于新模型的地震重定位分析表明,云南地区地震事件大多发生于20km内的上地壳;对2011年3月10日盈江M5.8和2014年8月3日鲁甸M6.5典型地震进行重定位,得出震源深度分别与精定位结果和震中强震台震源距接近,表明新的一维速度模型能更好地反映研究区平均速度结构。     

基于GNSS数据的朝鲜核爆电离层效应观测研究

本文分析了电离层对2009年、2013年和2016年朝鲜核试验中地下核爆(Underground Nuclear Explosion,UNE)的响应.利用南北半球IGS站的GNSS-TEC观测数据,发现了在3次核试验期间的磁共轭电离层扰动现象.观测结果表明,3次UNE所产生的电离层扰动分别以228m·s-1、173m·s-1和147m·s-1的速度从核试验爆心地区径向传播.本文研究提出,UNE所产生的电离层TEC扰动是岩石圈-大气层-电离层耦合(Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling,LAIC)电场渗透到电离层高度引发电动力学过程的结果.此外,LAIC电场可以沿磁力线映射到共轭半球,从而在共轭地区造成电离层TEC扰动.因此,在核试验地区附近以及其对应的磁共轭地区,UNE所产生的LAIC电场在电离层TEC扰动的形成中起着关键性的作用.     

不同地区人工爆炸与天然地震记录特征及识别研究

本文分析了河北怀来多次爆炸、河北三河采石场多次爆炸和低震级天然地震事件的记录特征和时频差异。结果显示:河北怀来爆炸的P波能量强、衰减快、S波发育弱;河北三河采石场爆炸的P波、S波主频均低于怀来爆炸,S波与面波混淆,不同震中距的台站记录低频发育明显;而天然地震的有效频带更宽,频率成分更为复杂。将Pg/Sg谱比判据应用于小震级地震与爆炸的识别中,探索交叉频带谱比对不同地区爆炸的识别。结果表明:高频（＞5 Hz）Pg/Sg谱比判据可将研究数据中的爆炸与小震级地震完全区分;与Sg低频（0—2 Hz）有关的交叉频带谱比可对两个不同地区的爆炸进行识别,交叉频带的谱比判据较传统的单一频带谱比判据能够更好地反映出不同类型事件的特征差异。      

Seismic Discrimination of the May 11, 1998 Indian Nuclear Test with Short-period Regional Data from Station NIL (Nilore, Pakistan)

v—vRegional seismic discriminants for the May 11, 1998 Indian underground nuclear test(s) and earthquakes recorded at station NIL (Nilore, Pakistan) provide new data to test strategies that can be used to monitor the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Three categories of regional discriminants (ratios of P- and/or S-wave energy) were measured on short-period (0.5–6uHz) seismograms: P/S amplitude ratios (phase ratios) measured in the same frequency band, P- and S-wave spectral ratios (i.e., low frequency to high frequency for the same phase) and P/S cross-spectral ratios (i.e., low frequency S-wave to high frequency P-wave). The P/S amplitude ratios show good separation of the Indian nuclear test and regional earthquakes for Pn/Lg and Pn/Sn, however Pg/Lg does not discriminate as well. Pn/Lg and Pn/Sn discriminate well at frequencies as low as 0.5–2uHz, especially after accounting for path effects. This observation differs from previous studies that report poor separation of earthquakes and explosions at lower frequencies. The P/S amplitude ratios do not show any magnitude dependence, suggesting that forming the ratios in a fixed frequency band cancels the effects of source size-corner frequency scaling. Spatial variability of the observed discriminants arises from variations in crustal waveguide and/or attenuation structure (path propagation effects). Grouping amplitude ratios for earthquakes with paths similar to the Indian test greatly improves discrimination. Removing distance trends does not generally improve discrimination. Accounting for path effects with Bayesian kriging significantly improves discrimination. Spectral ratios (e.g., Pn [0.5–1uHz]/Pn [4–6uHz]) and cross-spectral ratios (e.g., Lg [1–2uHz]/Pn [4–6uHz]) show distance and magnitude dependence. We developed a technique for simultaneously removing the effects of distance and source size-corner frequency scaling on amplitude and spectral ratios. The technique uses a gridsearch to find several parameters that characterize the observed distance and magnitude dependence. Discrimination of the Indian test improved dramatically after the distance and magnitude trends were removed from the spectral and cross-spectral ratio data.     

Geodynamic processes in seismically active areas of the Tien Shan from monitoring data with the use of nuclear explosions

Recent geodynamic processes in the Tien Shan region are studied by the analysis of time series of effective velocities and traveltime delays relative to the IASPEI-91 traveltime curve of the weakly refracted wave P _n from nuclear explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site over the period of 1968–1989. The time series were constructed for 10 seismic stations located at distances of 800–1200 km from the test site in the regions of the Northern, Central, and Southern Tien Shan. The twenty-year period of observations at stations in the North Tien Shan showed a significant decrease in traveltime delays by 0.20–0.76 s, which corresponds to a 0.2–0.7% increase in seismic velocities. An opposite pattern is observed at stations of the Central and Southern Tien Shan: traveltime delays increased by 0.2–0.5 s and, accordingly, seismic velocities dropped by 0.2–0.5%. These results suggest the predominance of compression processes in the crust and upper mantle during the period of observations in Northern Tien Shan and extension processes in the Central and Southern Tien Shan. The series of velocities and traveltime residuals are characterized by the presence of rhythmic oscillations of various amplitudes and periods against a linear trend. A correlation between variations in kinematic parameters and yearly numbers of earthquakes is observed at all stations. Diagrams of the spectral time analysis reveal rhythms with periods of 2–3 and 5–7 yr. The data obtained in this study are consistent with results of studying the stress-strain state of the Tien Shan crust from focal mechanisms of earthquakes and the velocities of recent crustal movements from GPS data. It is found that the amplitude of variations in kinematic parameters of the P wave at stations located in seismically active regions (the Tien Shan, Kopet Dagh, the Caucasus, Altai, and Sayany) is two to five times higher compared to aseismic regions (the Russian and Kazakh plains).     

Spectral classification methods in monitoring small local events by the Israel seismic network

We use the dense Israel Seismic Network (ISN) to discriminate between low magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the Middle East region. This issue is important for CTBT monitoring, especially when considering small nuclear tests which may be conducted under evasive conditions. We explore the performance of efficient discriminants based on spectral features of seismograms using waveforms of 50 earthquakes and 114 quarry and underwater blasts with magnitudes 1.0–2.8, recorded by ISN short-period stations at distances up to 200 km. The single-station spectral ratio of the low and high-frequency seismic energy shows an overlap between explosions and earthquakes. After averaging over a subnet of stations, the resolving power is enhanced and the two classes of events are separated. Different frequency bands were tested; the (1–3 Hz)/(6–8 Hz) ratio provided the best discriminant performance. We also estimated normalized r.m.s. spectral amplitudes in several sequential equal frequency windows within the 1–12 Hz band and applied multiparametric automatic classification procedures (Linear Discrimination Function and Artificial Neural Network) to the amplitudes averaged over a subnetwork. A leave-one-out test showed a low rate of error for the multiparametric procedures. An innovative multi-station discriminant is proposed, based on spectral modulation associated with ripple-firing in quarry blasts and with the bubbling effect in underwater explosions. It utilizes a distinct azimuth-invariant coherency of spectral shapes for different stations in the frequency range (1–12 Hz). The coherency is measured by semblance statistics commonly used in seismic prospecting for phase correlation in the time domain. After modification, the statistics applied to the network spectra provided event separation. A new feature of all the above mentioned procedures is that they are based on smoothed (0.5 Hz window), instrument-corrected FFT spectra of the whole signal; they are robust to the accuracy of onset time estimation and, thus well suited to automatic event identification.     

Spatio-temporal variations in the structure of the attenuation field of the S-wave in the region of Nevada nuclear test site

The characteristics of the attenuation field of short-period shear waves in the region of Nevada nuclear test site (NNTS) are studied. The seismograms of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and earthquakes recorded by three seismic stations in 1975–2012 at the epicentral distances of up to 1000 km are processed by the methods based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn to Pn and Lg to Pg waves, as well as the S-coda envelopes for close events. It is shown that the structure of the attenuation field in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle in the NNTS region experienced significant temporal variations during the interval of nuclear operations. The strongest variations were associated with UNEs conducted in the Pahute Mesa area, which held about two-thirds of the most intense explosions. Our data indicate that temporal variations in the structure of the attenuation field are related to the migration of deep fluids. A comparison of the general characteristics of the attenuation field in the regions of the three large nuclear test sites is presented.