A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.     

Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system. Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.     

An analysis of the solar-activity effects in the upper atmosphere

A study of the upper-atmosphere variations induced by solar activity was made by using 29,574 densities derived from the drag of 10 satellites in the interval 1958–1971. In a comparison of the respective merits of the Ca II-plage index and the 10.7 cm solar flux to represent the erratic (‘27 day’) component of the variation, the latter is shown to give invariably better results. The ratio $\text{ΔT}\text{δF}$ of the temperature variations to the variations of the decimetric flux is shown to vary considerably with solar activity, but little with height or with local solar time. The time lag of the atmospheric variations behind those of the decimetric flux varies from a minimum of 0.9 day at noon to 1.6 days at midnight.     

Numerical simulation of the general circulation of the Cytherean lower atmosphere

The principal features which distinguish the atmosphere on Venus from that of the Earth are the slow rotation of the planet, the large mass of the atmosphere, and the opacity of the atmosphere to long-wave radiation. The slow rotation of the planet gives rise, first of all, to nongeostrophuc dynamics (the atmosphere gas has a tendency to move along the pressure gradient), with the result that the region of the main influx of solar energy is located on one side of the planet, and the region of maximum cooling on the other. These considerations lead to a much simpler scheme of circulation than that in the Earth's atmosphere.The large mass of the atmosphere is the cause of a high thermal and mechanical inertia, which explains why the atmospheric circulation is asymmetrical relative to the solar-antisolar axis. The daily center of circulation is displaced to the second half of the Cytherean solar day, i.e., to the line of zero budget of thermal energy corresponding to a height of the Sun abobe the horizon of about 20°. The notions of cold and warm regions are very relative for Venus. While the horizontal temperature differences on the Earth may reach 100°, a mean horizontal temperature drop as small as 3° in the Cytherean atmosphere may be looked upon as an exceptional phenomenon. This high thermal homogeneity is due to a very large thermal inertia, with cooling at the poles never manifesting itself in the temperature fields obtained.The opacity of the Cytherean atmosphere to long-wave radiation results in vertical heat transfer by turbulence, mesoscale convection, and large-scale currents. This produces adiabatic stratification in the troposphere and a high temperature in the lower layers.These phenomena were studied in a general manner using two- and three-level models. Steps have recently been undertaken to investigate in greater detail the vertical structure of the troposphere on Venus using ten-level models. It appeared that the vertical dynamic structure of the troposphere is very much dependent on the distribution in height of the solar energy influx. In the greenhouse model, the entire atmosphere is affected by circulation. Pronounced velocity maxima are observed in the lower and upper layers. In a model with adsorption of solar radiation in the upper layer, the velocity is small in the lower layers, but it rapidly increases and changes its direction several times in the upper layers. The mean kinetic energy of the atmosphere proves to be two to three times smaller than in the greenhouse model.Attempts have been made in the calculations to find the principal modes of the statistical fluctuations. The results obtained show that atmospheric circulation may be represented by a global mean basic state following the rotation of the planet with deviations from that basic state which are indeterminate disturbances. The mean basic state exhibits a high degree of symmetry relative to the equator. On account of nonlinearity, the disturbances were observed in all the models independently of space and time resolution. This phenomenon appears to reflect the actual properties of the Cytherean atmosphere and has no bearing on the details of the numerical scheme.     

Phase Relationship Between Sunspot Number, Flare Index and Solar Radio Flux

To understand better the variation of solar activity indicators originated at different layers of the solar atmosphere with respect to sunspot cycles, we carried out a study of phase relationship between sunspot number, flare index and solar radio flux at 2800 MHz from January 1966 to May 2008 by using cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The flare index and sunspot number have synchronous phase for cycles 21 and 22 in the northern hemisphere and for cycle 20 in the southern hemisphere. (2) The flare index has a noticeable time lead with respect to sunspot number for cycles 20 and 23 in the northern hemisphere and for cycles 22 and 23 in the southern hemisphere. (3) For the entire Sun, the flare index has a noticeable time lead for cycles 20 and 23, a time lag for cycle 21, and no time lag or time lead for cycle 22 with respect to sunspot number. (4) The solar radio flux has a time lag for cycles 22 and 23 and no time lag or time lead for cycles 20 and 21 with respect to sunspot number. (5) For the four cycles, the sunspot number and flare index in the northern hemisphere are all leading to the ones in the southern hemisphere. These results may be instructive to the physical processes of flare energy storage and dissipation.     

XUV Photometer System (XPS): Solar Variations during the SORCE Mission

The solar soft X-ray (XUV) radiation is important for upper atmosphere studies as it is one of the primary energy inputs and is highly variable. The XUV Photometer System (XPS) aboard the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) has been measuring the solar XUV irradiance since March 2003 with a time cadence of 10 s and with about 70% duty cycle. The XPS measurements are between 0.1 and 34 nm and additionally the bright hydrogen emission at 121.6 nm. The XUV radiation varies by a factor of ∼2 with a period of ∼27 days that is due to the modulation of the active regions on the rotating Sun. The SORCE mission has observed over 20 solar rotations during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The solar XUV irradiance also varies by more than a factor of 10 during the large X-class flares observed during the May–June 2003, October–November 2003, and July 2004 solar storm periods. There were 7 large X-class flares during the May–June 2003 storm period, 11 X-class flares during the October–November 2003 storm period, and 6 X-class flares during the July 2004 storm period. The X28 flare on 4 November 2003 is the largest flare since GOES began its solar X-ray measurements in 1976. The XUV variations during the X-class flares are as large as the expected solar cycle variations.     

Ionization by cosmic rays of the atmosphere of Titan

Cosmic ray radiation is the main mechanism for ionizing the lower atmosphere of Titan. Their higher penetration power, in comparison with solar photons, allows cosmic rays to penetrate deep into the atmosphere of Titan, ionizing the neutral molecules and generating an ionosphere with an electron density peak, placed at around 90 km, similar in magnitude to the ionospheric peak produced by solar radiation in the upper atmosphere. In the lower atmosphere, the electron density profile, in the absence of a magnetic field, depends mainly on the modulation of cosmic rays by the solar wind and on the nature of the ionizable particles. We present here the first results of a new numerical model developed to calculate the concentration of electrons and most abundant ions in the Titan lower atmosphere. The present knowledge of Titan’s atmosphere permits us to include new neutral and ionic species, such as oxygen derivates, in a more detailed ion-chemistry calculation than previous lower ionospheric models of Titan. The electron density peaks at 90 km with a magnitude of 2150 cm⁻³. The ion distribution obtained predicts that cluster cations and hydrocarbon cations are the most abundant ions below and above the electron density peak, respectively. We also discuss the effect of solar activity at the distance of the Saturn orbit on the spectrum of the cosmic particles. We obtain that from solar minimum to solar maximum the ionization rate at the energy deposition peak changes by a factor of 1.2 at 70 km, and by a factor of 2.6 at altitudes as high as 400 km. The electron density at the concentration peak changes by a factor of 1.1 at 90 km, and by a factor of 1.6 at 400 km.     

PHASE EVOLUTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND COSMIC-RAY VARIATION CYCLES

Cycles of phase evolution of solar activity and cosmic-ray variations are reconstructed by means of the delay component method, which allows us to study the temporal behaviour of time lag between solar activity and cosmic-ray cycle phases. It is shown that the period of the late 20th cycle was very unusual. We have found a delay in the phase of the solar activity cycle with respect to that of cosmic rays and discuss the heliospheric conditions responsible for this delay.     

Variability of Neptune

Earth-based observers of Neptune have found that the planet varies in brightness at various wavelengths in ways that suggest that changes occur in the planet's atmosphere on several different time scales. Global inhomogeneities in high-altitude haze distribution that are stable for several days permit measurements of the planet's rotation period (about 18 hr), but this stability sometimes breaks down, obscuring the diurnal lightcurve. In addition, there is an apparent long-term variability of the brightness of Neptune in anticorrelation with the cycle of solar activity. This slow variability of low amplitude may be punctuated by outburst of high-altitude condensation of particles in the atmosphere whose decay time is several months.     

Variability in the Periodicity of 27 Days in Solar Indices

The short-term variation of solar indices, though typically near the solar rotation period of 27 days, can often deviate considerably from 27 days, in a wide range ∼ 19–33 days. The peak locations are within a day or two for all solar indices, indicating that the whole of the solar atmosphere is affected in a similar way. There are no systematic differences between the peaks of the chromosphere and the corona as such, but F10, X-rays, and coronal green line, which have uncertainties about their solar altitudes of origin, do show some differences (earlier peaks) as compared to other indices (chromospheric as well as coronal).     

Temporal Evolution of the Solar Wind Bulk Velocity at Solar Minimum by Correlating the STEREO A and B PLASTIC Measurements

The two STEREO spacecraft with nearly identical instrumentation were launched near solar activity minimum and they separate by about 45° per year, providing a unique tool to study the temporal evolution of the solar wind. We analyze the solar wind bulk velocity measured by the two PLASTIC plasma instruments onboard the two STEREO spacecraft. During the first half year of our measurements (March?–?August 2007) we find the typical alternating slow and fast solar wind stream pattern expected at solar minimum. To evaluate the temporal evolution of the solar wind bulk velocity we exclude the spatial variations and calculate the correlation between the solar wind bulk velocity measured by the two spacecraft. We account for the different spacecraft positions in radial distance and longitude by calculating the corresponding time lag. After adjusting for this time lag we compare the solar wind bulk velocity measurements at the two spacecraft and calculate the correlation between the two time-shifted datasets. We show how this correlation decreases as the time difference between two corresponding measurements increases. As a result, the characteristic temporal changes in the solar wind bulk velocity can be inferred. The obtained correlation is 0.95 for a time lag of 0.5 days and 0.85 for 2 days.

     

Satellite orbits perturbed by direct solar radiation pressure: General expansion of the disturbing function

An expression is derived for the solar radiation pressure disturbing function on an Earth satellite orbit which takes into account the variation of the solar radiation flux with distance from the Sun's centre and the absorption of radiation by the satellite. This expression is then expanded in terms of the Keplerian elements of the satellite and solar orbits using Kaula's method. The Kaula inclination functions are replaced by an equivalent set of modified Allan inclination functions.The resulting expression reduces to the form commonly used in solar radiation pressure perturbation studies (e.g. Aksnes, 1976), when certain terms are neglected. If, as happens quite often in practice, a satellite's orbit is in near-resonsnce with certain of these neglected terms, these near-resonant terms can cause changes in the satellite's orbital elements comparable to those produced by the largest term in Aksnes's expression. A new expression for the solar radiation pressure disturbing function expansion is suggested for use in future studies of satellite orbits perturbed by solar radiation pressure.     

Variations in air density at heights near 200 km during 1967–1969, from the orbit of 1967-31A

Air density at a height of 180–200 km from July 1967 to September 1969 has been determined from analysis of the high eccentricity orbit of satellite 1967-31A. The data show good correlation between sudden density increase and geomagnetic disturbance. The increases for disturbances of equal strength are approximately 40% greater during night-time than daytime hours. The day-night influence is also observed in the changes in density with changes in the solar flux index, F₁₀. The 27-day density variation is predominant mainly during night-time, although the atmospheric response to F₁₀ variations is quite variable regardless of local time. A semi-annual variation of approx. 40% is observed. Also found is a 25% diurnal variation for heights near 170–180 km, which is in good agreement with the CIRA 1972 atmosphere.     

Effects of solar variations on the upper atmosphere

Several semi-empirical models of the terrestrial upper atmosphere are presently available. These models take into account solar activity effects by using the solar decimetric flux as an index. Such a procedure is a consequence of the lack of continuous determinations of the solar spectrum directly responsible for the physical structure of the upper atmosphere. Variations of the thermopause temperature are discussed. Using five sets of solar irradiances measured in the ultraviolet and in the extreme ultraviolet, the penetration of solar radiation is analyzed as a function of solar activity. Several examples of absorption profiles and ion production rates are discussed for variable conditions. Various energetic effects are also described. All computations are made for physical conditions above Scheveningen (52.08° N) where the 14th ESLAB symposium was held.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

Seasonal changes on Jupiter: 2. Influence of the planet exposure to the Sun

From our investigation of the behavior of changes in the visible brightness of Jupiter observed since 1850, it follows that the 22.3-year Hale magnetic cycle of solar activity produces the dominating influence on the processes taking place in the troposphere at a level of forming the upper boundary of clouds. The maximum values of the integral brightness of Jupiter fall on the solar cycle with the highest value of the Wolf number for the last 165 years (around 1957). The lowest estimates of brightness were obtained in 1855, when the Wolf number in the 12th solar-activity cycle was smallest. The analysis of the reflectance of Jupiter’s hemispheres in the visible spectral range for 1962–2015 revealed the alternating increase in the brightness of southern and northern tropical and middle regions for one rotation period of Jupiter about the Sun. Such a change in brightness and the increase in the activity of different hemispheres of the planet may indicate the periodic global alteration in the circulation system, the structure of cloud layers, and the overcloud haze. This suggests the interrelation between the observed variations in the reflectance of the considered latitudinal belts of Jupiter and the change in the axial tilts of the planet itself and its magnetic field to the orbital plane, i.e., the seasonal alteration in the atmosphere. The comparison of the temporal dependence of the activity factor A _j of the Jovian hemispheres in the visible spectral range with the change in the solar-activity index R shows that, from 1962 to 1995, these parameters almost synchronously changed, though the response of the visible cloud layer somewhat lagged behind the regime of exposure of the atmosphere to the Sun. The analysis shows that, when the planet is moving along the orbit, the reflectance of Jupiter’s hemispheres varies in response to the 21-percent change in the exposure of different hemispheres with a lag of 6 years. Such a lag coincides with the radiation- relaxation time of the hydrogen–helium atmosphere under the Jovian conditions. Desynchronization in their behavior that occurred after 1997 may be explained by the unbalanced influence of the three mentioned causes on the atmosphere of the planet.     

Mass density of the upper atmosphere derived from Starlette’s Precise Orbit Determination with Satellite Laser Ranging

The atmospheric mass density of the upper atmosphere from the spherical Starlette satellite’s Precise Orbit Determination is first derived with Satellite Laser Ranging measurements at 815 to 1115 km during strong solar and geomagnetic activities. Starlette’s orbit is determined using the improved orbit determination techniques combining optimum parameters with a precise empirical drag application to a gravity field. MSIS-86 and NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric density models are compared with the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density of the upper atmosphere. It is found that the variation in the Starlette’s drag coefficient above 800 km corresponds well with the level of geomagnetic activity. This represents that the satellite orbit is mainly perturbed by the Joule heating from geomagnetic activity at the upper atmosphere. This result concludes that MSIS empirical models strongly underestimate the mass density of the upper atmosphere as compared to the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density during the geomagnetic storms. We suggest that the atmospheric density models should be analyzed with higher altitude acceleration data for a better understanding of long-term solar and geomagnetic effects.     

Direct and Indirect Thermospheric Heating Sources for Solar Cycles 21–23

Solar variability is often cast in terms of radiative emission and the associated long-term climate response; however, growing societal reliance on technology is creating more interest in day-to-day solar variability. This variability is associated with both solar radiative and solar wind emissions. In this paper we explore the combined effects of radiative and solar wind fluctuations at Earth. The fluctuations in radiative and geomagnetic power create an extended interval of solar maximum for the upper atmosphere. We use a trio of empirical models to estimate, over the last three solar cycles, the relative contributions of solar extreme ultraviolet (UV) power, Joule power, and particle kinetic power to the Earth’s upper atmosphere energy budget. Daily power values are derived from three source models. The SOLAR2000 solar irradiance specification model provides estimates of the daily extreme and far UV solar power input. Geomagnetic power is derived from a combination of satellite-estimated particle precipitation power and an empirical model of Joule power from hemispherically integrated estimates of high-latitude energy deposition. During the interval 1975 to 2003, the average daily contributions were: particles – 36 GW, Joule – 95 GW and solar – 464 GW for a total of 595 GW. Solar wind-driven geomagnetic power provided 22% of the total global upper atmospheric energy. In the top 15 power events, geomagnetic power contributed two-thirds of the total power budget. In each of these events, Joule power alone exceeded solar power. With rising activity, Joule power becomes the most variable element of solar upper atmosphere interactions.     

Acoustic interferometry of the solar atmosphere: p-modes with frequencies near the 'acoustic cut-off'

High-frequency p-mode intensity data, obtained from the South Pole in 1987, 1988, 1990 and 1994, show a sharp variation in the phase-shift function and in the frequency spacings near 5.5 mHz. Using a simple theoretical model, we demonstrate that this behaviour is caused by an acoustic resonance in the atmosphere between the excitation source and the upper reflection level. We discuss the diagnostic properties of this resonance, which is sensitive to the acoustic reflectivity of the solar atmosphere and to the location and parity of the excitation source. When applied to the solar data, our model indicates that the average acoustic reflectivity increases with increasing solar activity. The model also shows that the acoustic source has composite parity and is located within one pressure scaleheight of the base of the photosphere.     

A model of temporal variations in ozone density in the Martian atmosphere

Temporal variations of the Martian ozone density profile at high latitudes have been calculated for an entire Martian year, taking into account the seasonal and diurnal variations in temperature, water vapor and solar radiation. A new technique facilitates the long-term model calculations, including diurnal variations. The result is in better agreement with MARINER 9 observations of the time and magnitude of the seasonal maximum than is the result of the previous seasonal model calculated for the diurnally averaged temperature, water vapor and solar radiation. The large scatter of the MARINER 9 data may be partly experimental, but the effect of surface condition, including the water vapor variability and the surface chemistry, may explain some of the dispersion of the observed data. The predicted diurnal variation is substantial except near solstices, and the nighttime total column density is generally larger than the daytime value. The magnitude of the day-and-night difference and the shape of the diurnal variation change markedly with season. The opposite temporal variation is predicted for ozone density between the upper and lower regions. The model predicts the production of a ozone layer at 35–50 km, which is consistent with observations at low latitudes by MARS-5. The observed ozone density may be explained, if the atmospheric temperature is as low as ～ 140 K or if the atmosphere is subsaturated. Effects of the simultaneous existence of an aerosol layer, also observed by MARS-5, are briefly discussed.     

Three years statistics of simple 3 solar bursts

A plasmoid may be ejected during a flare and condensed by a radiative instability. The spectral shape of the mean fluxes of Simple 3 (or long-enduring) solar events is interpreted in terms of a thermal emission from this transient condensation in the higher levels of the solar atmosphere. This condensation is thick enough to block the radiation from the underlying S-component. This explanation fits the observed polarization changes, as well as the thermal character of the bursts time profiles. A clue for solar activity forecasting as well as for detailed studies of active sources is indicated.