1976年盐源地震预报

本文回顾了1976年四川盐源6.7级和6.4级地震的预报经过,重点介绍了当年预报地震的短期和临震预测依据.由于提前作了预报并及时采取了有效措施,因此大大减轻了地震损失和人员伤亡.     

《地震对策》各篇章缩写稿之三——第二篇 地震对策各论第三、四章—第三章 地区性地震工作及其群测群防对策

群测群防是预测预防震害的重要工作对策,具有明显的中国特色。地震群测群防的本来含义是群众性地震预测预防工作,它仅是地区性地震工作的一项主要内容,后来逐渐成为整个地区性地震工作的代名词。本文在介绍群测群防工作发展概况中包括其沿革和现状,以及这支队伍包含的几方面力量;在介绍它对地震对策的作用中,阐述了在地震预测预报对策中的科学技术、社会经济影响、临震前措施和发震后措施等方面的作用,以及各级人民政府在地震对策中的职能;尔后阐述了它今后的发展方向是:提高预测预防的科技水平,配合专业队伍做好地震工作,减轻震害损失,保障社会经济效益;最后指出它的任务是:因地制宜,发挥优势,合理布局地震观测网点,协助搞好防震抗震和工程地震,开展地震社会学研究工作,宣传地震和防震抗震知识。     

云南地区地震宏观观测现状及思考

<正>1研究背景为进一步提高地震监测预报水平和能力,地震部门不断探索研究新时代、新阶段中国特色专群结合地震短临预报模式,在优化专业站网布局、强化地震台分析预报业务的同时,不断提升市县地震群测群防能力,以构建现代化地震监测预报业务体系。笔者就云南地区地震宏观观测现状以及如何创新地震群策群防工作,谈一些思考和建议。     

第六章 松潘—平武地震

1976年8月16日松潘—平武7.2级强烈地震发生前,由于作出了较好的预测预报,并采取了相应的预防措施,因此,大大减轻了地震灾害造成的生命财产损失。本文简述了这次地震预测预报过程,地震及其灾害情况,大震前后所采取的对策,其中包括大震监测对策、群测群防在地震工作中的作用、地震预报的发布与传递、临震对策、震时对策和震后对策;最后在启示中指出,地震预报是地震对策中的首要问题。     

土地电的自动记录

随着我省群测群防地震工作的深入开展,不少单位对土地电希望能够早日自动记录,以为预测预报地震提供比较连续可靠的数据。为了供同志们在实验土地电自动记录时参考,我们选载了国家地震局武汉地震大队研制土地电记录仪的部分资料。     

纪念海城M7.3级地震成功预报40周年——出彩辽宁人

1975年2月4日海城M7.3级强烈地震成功的预报,创造了20纪地球科学史和世界科技上的奇迹。文内回顾了成功预报的过程:党和政府的高度重视与决策;对群测群防工作的落实;辽宁地震科技人员对地震发生的典型性地体环境和社会环境等综合分析。证明地震是有前兆的,是可以预测预防的。从而增强了对地震预报的信心,激励地震工作者在地震学科中不断的总结和探索。     

四川地震监测预报工作40年进展与展望

回顾了四川地震监测预报工作40年发展历程。四川地震监测预报积累了地震学和前兆观测资料,推进了测震台网、前兆监测台网、流动监测网以及空间技术的发展应用,为地震预测探索之路奠定了基础;地震预报科研经历了多次科研攻关研究,总结了经验和教训,提炼和筛选了一些预报指标和方法;地震监测数字化的发展,给地震监测预报提出新的课题;今后仍将依赖于科学和创新机制,依赖于高新技术应用,依赖于地震监测网能力和质量提升,始终坚持边观测、边研究、边预报的地震预测的探索之路。     

关于地震监测预报有关工作的思考

针对2008年四川汶川8．0级地震后存在的问题,从地震监测工作的定位与功能,地震预测预报工作的定性与定位以及监测、预报、科研结合,监测仪器和软件市场化几方面进行分析,提出了相应的改进建议,供研究参考。     

山东省地震群测群防体系建立及发展

地震群测群防工作是我国防震减灾工作的重要组成部分,是国家鼓励、引导社会组织和个人开展地震群测群防活动的重要途径。本文在认真回顾山东省群测群防工作发展历程的基础上,结合山东省群测群防工作的实践经验,从5个方面归纳介绍了山东省群测群防工作的有效作法,并展望了进一步深入开展地震群测群防工作的发展空间。     

对地震预测预报的一点思考

从基层地震工作者的视野,对地震预测预报存在的困难进行了探讨,讨论了地震学与社会地震学的相关性。结合现状,对相关仪器性能、人才队伍建设、日常工作与科学研究的关系、地震预测预报信心不足、科学研究与地震预测预报衔接等问题进行了一定的分析和描述。最后,结合地震预测预报岗位特征及工作现状提出了一点粗浅的建议与设想。     

桥梁抗震设计规范的现状与发展趋势

本文对世界主要桥梁结构抗震设计规范的现状进行了较为详细的对比,指出我国现行《公路工程抗震设计规范》中存在的一些缺点。本文还对目前国际上桥梁结构抗震设计规范的发展动向进行了总结,提出了修订我国新《城市桥梁抗震设计规范》的一些意见。     

Detection of trends in magnitude and frequency of flood peaks across Europe

This study analyses the differences in significant trends in magnitude and frequency of floods detected in annual maximum flood (AMF) and peak over threshold (POT) flood peak series, for the period 1965–2005. Flood peaks are identified from European daily discharge data using a baseflow-based algorithm and significant trends in the AMF series are compared with those in the POT series, derived for six different exceedence thresholds. The results show that more trends in flood magnitude are detected in the AMF than in the POT series and for the POT series more significant trends are detected in flood frequency than in flood magnitude. Spatially coherent patterns of significant trends are detected, which are further investigated by stratifying the results into five regions based on catchment and hydro-climatic characteristics. All data and tools used in this study are open-access and the results are fully reproducible.     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.     

Population Movements and Tropical Health

Through time people have been mobile, for a variety of complex reasons at a range of scales from local through regional and continental to intercontinental. Some are voluntary, others are made under pressure and the force of various circumstances, with environmental, socio-economic and political factors often interrelating to cause movements. We are now more mobile than at any time in the past, there are more people to move, the means to move are greater, and political boundaries are either open or often crossed without great difficulty. These movements have considerable consequences for human health, for disease transmission and diffusion and for measures for health improvement. They are viewed at a global scale, and then for two major regions in more detail to illustrate their significance for one old and one new disease, for malaria in Southeast Asia and for HIV/AIDS in West Africa. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

引起大地电场变化的一些因素

对河北省4个电场台站3年多的大地电场资料进行了全面的分析、整理,总结出引起大地电场变化的一些因素,这对我们认识资料有所帮助。对分析和利用大地电场资料有一定意义。     

Semi-empirical procedures for evaluating liquefaction potential during earthquakes

Semi-empirical procedures for evaluating the liquefaction potential of saturated cohesionless soils during earthquakes are re-examined and revised relations for use in practice are recommended. The stress reduction factor (r_d), earthquake magnitude scaling factor for cyclic stress ratios (MSF), overburden correction factor for cyclic stress ratios (K_σ), and the overburden normalization factor for penetration resistances (C_N) are discussed and recently modified relations are presented. These modified relations are used in re-evaluations of the SPT and CPT case history databases. Based on these re-evaluations, revised SPT- and CPT-based liquefaction correlations are recommended for use in practice. In addition, shear wave velocity based procedures are briefly discussed.     

地震安全性评价工程师资格考试大纲已审定通过

把美国西部地区作为参考区,采用我国地震动参数区划图工作时所使用的美国西部地区强震资料建立参考区水平向基岩短周期加速度反应谱衰减关系;采用美国南加州地区数字宽频带记录建立参考区水平向基岩长周期加速度反应谱衰减关系。与由丰富的等震线资料统计得出的我国东部地区和西部地区的地震烈度衰减关系一起,用转换方法分别得到了我国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系。对该衰减关系在重大工程地震安全性评价工作中的应用提出了建议。     

AVOA techniques for fracture characterization

Different aspects of computational techniques for AVOA analysis (Amplitude Versus Offset and Azimuth) for fracture characterization are considered, in particular: using amplitudes instead of reflection coefficients, smoothing seismic data, and numerical methods for estimation of fracture directions. A new computational method and a new filter for smoothing are suggested. The different computational methods are compared in synthetic reflection surface data with noise, and without noise. Properties of the numerical methods in dependence on different sets of azimuths and offsets are obtained. It is shown a superiority of the new method.     

桩基瞬态动测响应的数学模型及基本特性

根据桩在瞬态激振方式下的阻尼波动方程,本文分别给出端承柱与浮承桩的振动初始条件和边界条件,并导出了两类桩瞬态动测响应的数学模型.通过与试验桩实测响应的对比,证明所建立的数学模型是正确的.文中还分析和讨论了桩的瞬态动测响应的五个基本特性,为动力测桩的参数估计提供了较严格的理论依据.     

地下钻杆透层天线

对于有耗分层媒质中的垂直透层天线，建立了Ｈａｌｌｅｎ积分方程分析法的一般理论以及求取地面电场和电压的计算方法．作为应用实例，给出了地下３层媒质中钻杆天线上的电流积分方程，并对典型的地质参数进行了数值计算．所得结果和结论，与已知的理论结果和实验规律吻合。