关于加强特大自然灾害预测新途径新方法研究的讨论

今年1月14～17日,在香山饭店召开了“特大自然灾害预测的新途径、新方法”香山科学讨论会议。我国一批从事气象、地震、天文、物理、数学、遥感、地球物理、地质等科学家们,经过长期多学科交叉、探索的艰苦努力,已在大地震临震和特大暴雨等特大自然灾害预测方面获得了重要进展。与会科学家一致认为,在国家有力地支持下,迫切需要进一步组织起来,预期在不久的将来,在该领域的一些世界性科学难点有望在我国首先突破。     

特大自然灾害的综合观测和预测方法的探索

大地震和特大暴雨等特大自然灾害具有很强的突发性和破坏性。地震的临震预报和特大暴雨的预报依然是世界性难题。近20～30年来国内外科学家明显加强了多学科的交叉,从多角度探讨特大自然灾害发生机制及预测的理论和方法,并取得了初步的进展。本文集中讨论了这些方法及其综合集成分析。研究表明,这些新方法对特大自然灾害预测预报提供了新的思路,但绝大多数新方法仍处于萌芽的探索阶段,其预测预报的机理和综合使用的途径和前景尚有待进一步研究,使这些方法成为成熟的预测预报方法并努力使其成为成熟的业务预报系统中的组成部分。     

重大自然灾害房屋倒塌程度高分辨率遥感识别方法:以舟曲特大泥石流灾害为例

重大自然灾害引起的房屋倒塌程度的快速制图,对灾害应急救援和灾后损失评估意义重大。针对目前利用高空间分辨率遥感数据开展房屋倒塌程度调查中存在的主要问题,如房屋倒塌分类标准不统一、解译标准缺乏等,在考虑人员和经济损失状况、灾害救助、恢复重建难度等方面的基础上,建立了高空间分辨率遥感数据支持下的重大自然灾害房屋倒塌程度的分类体系,分为未倒塌、轻度倒塌、中度倒塌、重度倒塌、完全倒塌5级。系统描述了房屋倒塌程度遥感解译规则,建立了遥感解译标志,并提出了一种基于瓦砾信息开展房屋倒塌程度的遥感识别方法。最后,以舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害为例,开展了房屋倒塌程度遥感制图研究。结果表明,利用此方法,房屋倒塌程度识别精度达到92.73%,完全能够满足自然灾害应急救援和灾后损失评估的需求。该方法体系为重大自然灾害应急救援和灾后损失评估提供了科学支撑。      

汶川大震的科学思考

在野外地震地质科学考察的基础上,围绕汶川地震发震断层的特征、发震机制、地表破裂带的分段性与分带性、南北构造带地震危险性、地震地质灾害的多发性及链生性、工程建(构)筑物的破坏特征与安全性、地震烈度区划问题及极端自然灾害的预测与应对等进行了分析和讨论,并就有关问题提出了一些新的思考.结果表明,低速滑动断层、晚更新世断层或中央活动断裂也可以发生强震;汶川地震同时具有深部构造的控震作用;地表破裂沿走向可分为映秀-安县段、北川-关口段及青川段;地表破裂可分为主破裂、牵动破裂与感应破裂3种类型;青川段的深部破裂与浅部破裂没有几何上的连续关系或继承关系;贺兰-川滇南北构造带是中国大陆强震多发带,尤其是其北段的六盘山-天水-武都-青川一带未来的强震危险性不容忽视;汶川地震地质灾害具有灾害类型多、成因机理复杂、灾害链长、规模大、范围广、灾害程度深、危害对象广、持续时间长等特点;高烈度区和活断层沿线的地质灾害危险性区划与预测评价对防灾减灾极为重要;活动断裂沿线应注意破裂影响带宽度与建筑物安全避让距离;应对地震等极端自然灾害,应以预防为主,综合减灾;地震烈度区划应同时考虑活动断层的复发周期、地震的离逝时间乃至地形地貌条件;重大工程应提高设防烈度;应当加强极端自然灾害预测评估,完善应对对策和提高应对水平.     

积极应对 转“危”为“机”

时光流转,岁月如歌。 刚刚过去的2008年,是中华民族发展史上极不寻常的一年。这一年,我国成功战胜了南方雨雪冰冻的严重自然灾害,经受住了汶川特大地震的严酷考验;圆满地举办了北京奥运会和残奥会,顺利地完成了“神舟七号”载人航天任务;     

对地观测——另一个视角看地球

<正>人类自诞生起,从未停止过对地球的探索和认知,其根本目的是为了探索更好的生存环境与发展空间。近几十年以来,全球不可再生资源的日益减少、气候变暖、海平面上升、臭氧层遭到破坏、土地退化与荒漠化加剧、环境恶化及自然灾害频发等全球性资源环境问题引发了全社会广泛关注,迫切要求人们用新的视角和新的技术研究地球的现状和演化规律,推动资源、环境和灾害等问题的解决。于是,以研究地球各圈层特征的地球科学首当其冲,面临着难得的机遇和严峻的挑战。     

流体地质作用与资源环境效应——基于第八届流体地球科学与矿产资源及环境灾害学术研讨会的综述

基于第八届流体地球科学与矿产资源及环境灾害学术研讨会的主要交流成果,从侧面综述了近几年地质流体的形成演化与矿产资源的富集分布及环境灾害研究进展和发展趋势。从深部地质作用与矿产资源,地质流体研究的物理化学技术,流体地球化学特征与地震活动,地热资源的赋存特征和发展现状,地质资源的成藏特征、主控因素以及富集规律,流体地球科学与地理自然环境等6个方面对本次学术研讨会主要交流成果进行了总结。结果表明：(1)油气和矿产资源的生成和演化机制、富集和运移机制以及勘探和开发技术的发展依然是目前流体地球科学领域研究的重点,且研究内容也更加注重资源产生和演化的历史与机制;(2)利用多样化且更精确的新技术对地质条件更加复杂、埋藏更深及勘探和开采难度更大的新领域进行拓展研究是当前的主要趋势;(3)目前中国极端自然灾害风险的不确定性受全球气候变化等自然、经济、社会因素的影响,表现出增长趋势,破坏性地震正处于频发时期,自然灾害的突发性、异常性和复杂性同时也表现出增长趋势,因此,提升中国自然灾害防治能力刻不容缓。     

应变分析若干技术问题

本文针对当前应变分析中存在和需要解决的若干技术问题进行了讨论。这些问题是:均匀应变模型的建立。应变参数的估计模型,均匀应变模型的检验以及作者提出的、适用于存在非均匀位移点情形下的应变参数估计模型的修改。     

南京地铁南北线主要工程地质问题认识与评价

介绍了南京地铁南北线一期工程的工程概况及工程地质条件.地铁建设场址区沿线地形复杂,地铁要频繁穿过基岩和河漫滩软土及古河床的饱水粉细砂层,由此引发较多的工程地质问题.结合优势面分析理论讨论了南京地铁建设所遇到的主要工程地质问题:区域稳定性问题、砂土液化问题、围岩稳定性问题、工程水害与渗透变形问题、地基不均匀沉降问题,并针对具体问题提出了在地铁施工中的相应解决办法.实践证明,认清工程建设中所存在的工程地质问题并作出科学评价,对工程建设的勘察、施工、设计都是至关重要的.     

当找水尖兵 解万民干渴——广西国土系统全力开展抗旱找水打井工作侧记

<正>去年秋季以来,西南五省遭遇特大干旱,山塘水库干涸,土地龟裂,人畜饮水告急,且干旱有进一步蔓延的趋势。3月17日下午,广西启动自然灾害救助和气象干旱二级应急响应,为缓解灾区人畜饮水困难,次日,广西国土资源厅、广西地质矿产勘查开发局紧急启动找水打     

APPLICATION OF MAP AND FILE INFORMATIONVISUALIZATION SYSTEM TO COMPREHENSIVEDIVISION OF NATURAL DISASTERS- Takingthe ChangjiangValleg as an Example

In recent years，scholars at home and abroad have method，and that vanous disasters would be analyzed assynthetically studied natural dlsaste‘theoretically and an Integral．SHI Peilun（1991）putforwad a scientificmethodologlcally，as well as its cases analys。s（CND，term—regional disaster system，which Indicates that1987； MA et al，1990； MARBLE，1990； NE et al，the situation of a disaster（calamity loss）results from1999； PATAK et al，1982； SHI，1991；VAN et al，h…     

Application of map and file information visualization system to comprehensive division of natural disasters

This paper generalizes the makeup and forming dynamic mechanism of natural disaster systems, principles and methods of comprehensive division of natural disasters, as well as structure, function and up-build routes of map and file information visualization system (MFIVS). Taking the Changjiang (Yangtze) Valley as an example, on the basis of revealing up the integrated mechanism on the formations of its natural disasters and its distributing law, thereafter, the paper relies on the MFIVS technique, adopts two top-down and bottom-up approaches to study a comprehensive division of natural disasters. It is relatively objective and precise that the required division results include three natural disaster sections and nine natural disaster sub-sections, which can not only provide a scientific basis for utilizing natural resources and controlling natural disaster and environmental degradation, but also be illuminated to a concise, practical and effective technique on comprehensive division. Foundation item: Under the auspices of President Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (1999). Biography: HU Bao-qing (1966 -), male, a native of Linchuan, Jiangxi Province, Ph. D. His main research interests include environmental geology, mountain study, earth system science and sustainable development.     

Coupling mechanism of rural settlements and mountain disasters in the upper reaches of Min River

Human settlements are the place where human beings live,among which the rural settlements can be regarded as a reflection of human-land relationship in mountain areas because their vertical distribution is greatly influenced by the specific geographical environment and ecological conditions of mountains.Based on field investigation,this paper uses physical,geographical,and ecological theories to make a comprehensive study of rural settlements and mountain disasters in the upper Min River,which is an ecologically fragile area with high-frequency disasters（collapse,landslide,debris flow,etc.） and a minority inhabit district.By applying these modern scientific theories,this paper attempts to shed some light on the relationship between rural settlements and mountain disasters.Consequently,an in-depth understanding of this relationship was achieved as follows：（1） Rural settlements and mountain disasters are mainly distributed in the intercepted flows of water and soil; and both quantity and quality of arable lands in mountains are important indicators of these flows.（2） The Small Watershed Management Project is a complex system of rural settlements and mountain disasters that interacts with and constrains the ecological system.By this project,the human survival will be better guaranteed.Being fundamental for the ecological reconstruction,the coupling mechanism of rural settlements and mountain disasters is not only an engine to promote harmonious development between human and nature,but also a bridge to link them.     

防灾减灾系统灾情信息集成技术研究

全球各类自然灾害的频繁发生,给各国人民的生活和生产带来了严重灾难和重大损失。通过建立防灾减灾系统,有效减少灾害带来的损失,越来越受到各国政府及灾害主管部门的重视。本文结合地理信息系统的地理编码技术、大型关系数据库技术、动态数据交换技术,详细阐述了应用于政府部门的防灾减灾系统中灾情信息的集成方法及具体实现。     

Geo-hazards risk zonation and warning system based on GIS in Anshan City of Liaoning

Debris flow and Karst collapse are the main parts of geological disasters in Anshan,which have affected on the construction and development of the social economy of Anshan.In order to enhance the studies of rules of disaster and give scientific estimation and alarm ahead of schedule warning,we established the warning system of Anshan and investigated the corresponding software,which are based on the deep discussions about the crisis estimation and methods of prediction of disasters.In this paper,the foundation of model used in estimating the alarm ahead of schedule for disaster and the methods of appraisal for the alarm ahead of schedule are discussed.This system for warning and evaluating is the combination of the models of warning and GIS flat roof,with so many virtues,such as complete functions,convenience,applicability,which has considered the output of data,analyses of space,chooses of model,output of production,report of information for warning and the statements and help of system.     

Geo-hazards risk zonation and warning system based on GIS in Anshan City of Liaoning

Debris flow and Karst collapse are the main parts of geological disasters in Anshan, which have affected on the construction and development of the social economy of Anshan. In order to enhance the studies of rules of disaster and give scientific estimation and alarm ahead of schedule warning, we established the warning system of Anshan and investigated the corresponding software, which are based on the deep discussions about the crisis estimation and methods of prediction of disasters. In this paper, the foundation of model used in estimating the alarm ahead of schedule for disaster and the methods of appraisal for the alarm ahead of schedule are discussed. This system for warning and evaluating is the combination of the models of warning and GIS flat roof, with so many virtues, such as complete functions, convenience, applicability, which has considered the output of data, analyses of space, chooses of model, output of production, report of information for warning and the statements and help of system.     

广东省滑坡灾害监测中CORS系统的应用分析

在广东省滑坡灾害动态监测工作中,以广东省GPS连续运行参考站网络(GDCORS)技术为核心,集成单频GPS接收机及一机多天线技术(GMS)等低成本专业化GPS形变监测手段,开展高精度(厘米级到毫米级)滑坡灾害动态监测应用研究.在对3种关键技术,包括:CORS系统建立和维护区域动态位移形变监测基准、GPS/CORS动态解...     

自然灾害调查数据的多尺度异常检测方法研究及应用

大范围自然灾害调查,涉及区域环境差异大,数据获取方式多样,参与人员多,各级汇总成果中存在一些异常调查单元,需要人工判读其合理性,但单纯依靠人工从海量数据中有效识别异常是不现实的。本文设计了一种自然灾害调查数据的多尺度异常检测方法,综合运用离群检测方法和空间数据挖掘算法,分别进行异常值和异常空间分布模式检测,能够从海量调查数据中快速提取各级尺度的异常值和异常调查单元,支撑人工判读工作。将该方法应用于全国山洪灾害调查评价汇总数据的审核中,以全国历史山洪灾害点和防治区乡镇面积审核为例,分别快速提取了县乡两级区划中的山洪灾害点密度异常单元和面积值异常的乡镇单元,通过对检测结果进行分析,发现是填报口径不一致、单位错误、记录重复等原因造成的。最后分析了该方法在大范围自然灾害调查中的适用条件和方法。     

自然灾害综合风险防范信息服务技术体系构建及展望

构建自然灾害综合风险防范信息服务业务技术体系是支撑新时代防灾减灾救灾工作的必然要求。文章聚焦全链条、多主体、多灾种综合风险防范信息服务需求,建立了自然灾害综合风险防范信息服务的技术体系框架,构建了涵盖常态减灾和灾前预防、灾中救援、灾后恢复重建等非常态救灾全过程的综合风险防范信息服务产品体系,建立了信息产品开发、行业数据协同、网络大数据挖掘、信息服务平台集成等方面的关键技术。其中,信息产品体系构建从灾害管理过程、主要业务类型和工作任务方面进行三级分类。信息产品开发方面研发了基于致灾、灾情、救灾3类标准灾害信息要素的灾害信息产品制作、表达和动态定制技术;行业数据协同方面研发了双向自适应的部门微服务数据共享新机制及多部门多源异构数据接入、融合处理技术;网络大数据挖掘领域研发了基于网页、移动通信、社交网络、物联网等网络大数据的致灾、灾情、救灾要素信息挖掘与融合分析技术;信息服务集成平台搭建领域研发了基于云服务架构的时空分布式大数据管理、业务工具模型集成、“云+端”多渠道信息服务技术。该技术体系解决灾害信息服务时效性不高、完备性不足等问题,为开辟与政府部门统计并行的灾害信息数据获取新途径提供了技术支撑。     

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.