海底失稳调查与评价流程

不同于陆地滑坡,海底滑坡由于水动力条件这一特殊因素致使其难以观测,其致灾机理、失稳评价流程等也未形成标准.对海底失稳与致灾机理的深入研究,涉及海斗深渊的形成与演化、深水工程开发的商业利益、海洋地质灾害的预测及海洋工程的安全等诸多问题.海底失稳调查与评价流程分为地质调查、灾害机理分析、失稳评价3个方面,综合地球物理、海底...     

海底滑坡分类及成因机制研究进展

海底滑坡危害严重且普遍存在,成为人们日益关注的热点问题。为加深对其认识,从范畴分类、成因机制两方面进行论述分析,对国内外的研究成果进行提炼总结,并重点分析了水动力与天然气水合物分解两种触发机制。结果表明海底滑坡内涵逐步深化、类型逐步细化、范畴逐步泛化;海底滑坡的最终形成是在一定内在条件下,多种触发因素共同作用的结果,其成因机制异常复杂。最后指出了海底滑坡未来的研究方向与工作重点:发展原位实时监测技术,建立海底滑坡资料数据库,完善物理-数值模型。     

海底滑坡块体运动研究综述

海底滑坡是一种极具破坏力的海底地质灾害。其一旦发生,破坏后的块体可以高速运移至数十千米甚至上百千米远,能够对影响区域内的海洋油气生产平台、海底管道、海底电缆等海洋工程设施造成破坏性影响。本研究根据国内外海底滑坡研究领域的最新成果,简要介绍分析与海底斜坡失稳后块体运动有关的调查方法、数值模拟以及物理实验等研究的现状与进展,以期为我国今后海底滑坡地质灾害评价与防治研究提供参考。     

加拿大COSTA计划简介

加拿大COSTA(Continental Slope Stabmty)计划是加拿大首次开展的海底滑坡运动综合研究项目。加拿大学者通过参加欧洲cOsTA计划,与欧洲学者建立了稳定的学术交流和资料与信息共享联系,学习和引进欧洲先进的调查方法、手段和技术,提高加拿大海底滑坡研究水平。同时,还将研究成果应用于欧洲地区的海底斜坡稳定性分析,以检验研究结果的实用性。该计划为期4a,统计海底滑坡事件的清单,调查和研究滑坡体的特征、触发机制、滑坡距离、范围和破坏结果等,建立一套三维滑坡风险评价方法。介绍了加拿大COSTA计划的总体研究思路和技术路线,为我国开展海底斜坡稳定性研究提供新思路。     

海底滑坡作用下滩海管道结构安全分析

海底滑坡作为常见的海洋地质灾害,对海洋油气工程安全产生巨大威胁。海床土体失稳引起滑坡体滑动,会对海底管道产生拖曳作用。基于计算流体动力学方法(CFD)建立海底滑坡体对管道作用的评估模型,采用H-B模型描述块状滑坡体并与试验比较验证,分析不同海床倾斜度滑坡对管道的作用并拟合表达式;研究了海底管道在滑坡作用下的力学响应,并采用极限状态方法开展海底滑坡作用下管道结构极限安全分析,探讨了管道埋地状态时的极限安全界限,建立滑坡作用下管道结构安全分析方法。研究表明:滑坡对管道作用力与海床倾角呈现正相关,而覆土层厚度对作用力影响较小;随着不排水抗剪强度的减小,允许的滑坡宽度和速度均增加,表明土体不排水抗剪强度与引起的拖曳力呈正相关;滑坡土体宽度对极限安全速度影响较大。     

海底滑坡对海洋单桩冲击力试验研究

为了研究海底滑坡对海洋单桩的冲击力大小,首先通过调整高岭土、粉砂的不同含量,得到不同流变特性、不同密度的碎屑流,采用Herschel-Bulkley模型和幂率模型对流体流变性质进行描述;随后利用自制海底滑坡模型槽,模拟碎屑流在不同流速和黏度下对模型桩的冲击;并结合流体力学理论,建立阻力系数与非牛顿流体雷诺数之间关系表达式。试验数据表明:碎屑流黏度和流速是影响海底滑坡冲击力的主要因素,海底滑坡冲击力随着泥浆黏度和流速的增加而增大。同时,考虑碎屑流剪切稀释特性,得到管桩阻力系数随雷诺数变化的拟合公式,为海洋桩基础设计提供参考。     

基于SPH深度积分模型的海底滑坡数值分析

海底滑坡会对海洋工程结构物造成严重破坏。滑移速度和距离是量化和分析海底滑坡的两个重要参数。目前BING等计算方法在模拟水下土体流动方面存在局限性,因此通过建立考虑土体固结和侵蚀效应的控制方程,选用摩擦流变模型,采用SPH深度积分算法,对海底滑坡进行了模拟研究。对比不同水深、坡度、接触摩擦系数和侵蚀率条件下的滑移体的速度、高度、长度的时程曲线,整理了最大滑移距离和速度,讨论变化规律。研究成果可为海底滑坡灾害预警和海底管线路由选址提供技术参考。     

基于小尺度数值模型的海底滑坡运动敏感性分析

开展海底滑坡运动特性研究是深水陆坡区滑坡地质灾害认识与防治的基础,建立了基于非牛顿流体欧拉-欧拉两相流理论的小尺度海底滑坡数值模型。在与实验数据和BING程序结果对比验证的基础上,模拟分析海底滑坡的一般运动规律及特性,并同无水条件下的滑坡模拟结果进行了对比。结果表明:环境水的存在可引发"滑水"现象,延长滑坡运动时间,增加运动距离,但端部最大峰值速度相对无水条件时较小;滑坡体物质组成、地形坡度、初始速度、初始厚度等因素,对最终的运动距离有较大的影响;滑坡体在运动过程中因扰动、混水而导致的屈服强度和粘滞系数的不断降低是海底滑坡长距离运动的主要原因。     

南海北部陆坡神狐海域海底滑坡地球物理响应特征及其与流体活动相关性

海底滑坡广泛发育于海底陆坡上,是改变海底地形地貌的主导因素,也是大陆坡上沉积物往深海盆地搬运的重要方式。利用神狐海域针对水合物储集层做过特殊处理的高分辨率地震资料,首先根据剖面的地震响应特征对该区域海底滑坡的后壁、侧壁以及滑坡内部构造进行识别、分析和解释,其次根据海底及海底以下不同反射时间的时间切片对该区域海底滑坡的整体形态以及空间展布等特征进行了详细刻画。最后结合流体聚集区频谱分析结果以及滑坡分布与流体活动带的对应关系,分析了该区域海底滑坡与流体活动的相关性,推断了该区域海底滑坡的直接诱因。     

深水钻井安全的地质风险评价技术研究

大陆坡和深海盆地海底是不稳定的,如海底滑坡、滑塌、浊流、地震、断裂活动、浅层高压气囊等,对海洋油气勘探与开发所造成的灾害屡见不鲜.对于深海工程而言,开展潜在地质灾害因素及其危害性调查、科学地评价海洋开发的地质环境极为重要,它将直接为海洋开发部署与海底工程设施规划提供科学依据,关系到钻井、采油平台和海底管线等重大设施的安全问题,必须引起高度的重视[1,2].     

Susceptibility assessment of regional submarine landslides triggered by seismic actions

Submarine landslide and even its evolution to high-speed sliding masses can seriously threaten the safety of ocean engineering. Earthquakes are the most frequent trigger factors for landslides, and thus, seismic instability evaluation of submarine slopes has become a hot topic. However, the mechanism of submarine slope failures triggered by earthquakes is enormously complex. Although certain satisfactory results have been achieved in specific slopes, submarine landslides are still difficult to monitor and control, meaning that prevention-oriented research remains the mainstream. Regional slide predictive analyses of vast submarine slopes should be emphasized, but relevant research is notably rare. In this paper, a regional assessment methodology for submarine slope instabilities under seismic loads is proposed, and susceptibility mapping of landslides is established. First, considering the quasi-static bidirectional seismic action and the marine soil strength-weakening effect, an infinite slope sliding mode is used to establish the stability evaluation formula for a multiple soil-layer slope. Second, according to water depth data and GIS techniques, slope gradients are investigated, and the safety factors of submarine slopes located at specific stations are acquired. Furthermore, discrete stations are taken as sample points, and susceptibility mapping of submarine landslides is achieved using the inverse distance weighted and GIS techniques. Finally, regional seismic instability assessments of submarine slopes are conducted in the northeastern South China Sea, and various factors that influence submarine landslides are briefly discussed. This study offers an important basis for the development of marine resources and the risk assessments in ocean engineering.     

Large-scale seafloor stability evaluation of the northern continental slope of South China Sea

Abstract

With the continuous expansion of energy demand, the deep-water continental slope in the northern South China Sea has become one of the significant offshore oil and gas exploration regions. The frequent occurrence of marine geological hazards in this region, especially submarine landslides, can cause serious damage to engineering facilities. However, there have been few studies on the stability of the northern continental slope of the South China Sea; these studies mainly focused on a specific submarine slope or small-range evaluation, resulting in a lack of large-scale and quantitative understanding. Hence, considering the variation in the physical and mechanical properties of marine soils with depth, formulas for calculating the safety factor of submarine slopes by an infinite sliding model are established, and the factors affecting slope stability such as soil properties, slope gradient and horizontal seismic action are systematically investigated. Using GIS techniques, the terrain slope gradients and a historical seismic database of the northern South China Sea are obtained. Combined with soil mechanical parameters, a regional stability evaluation of the northern continental slope is carried out. Furthermore, the distribution of risk zones is given. On the whole, under strong seismic action, large-scale submarine slope instability occurs and must be highly considered when assessing risk. This achievement is of great significance to engineering sites, route selection and engineering risk assessment.     

荔湾3-1气田潜在海底滑坡滑动距离预测及动态特性分析

A large number of submarine landslides with different scales have been identified in the canyon area of the submarine pipeline route of Liwan 3-1 gas field. There is still much chance that submarine sl...     

基于无监督机器学习的胶州湾海底工程环境适宜性综合评价

海岸带工程地质环境的稳定性对于海洋工程的建设安全和沿海经济繁荣十分重要。在胶州湾海域已有地质、水文等数据的基础上,对胶州湾海底工程环境适宜性进行了分区。通过无监督机器学习的谱聚类算法,构建了胶州湾海底工程环境适宜性综合评价模型。结果表明,胶州湾整体工程环境适宜性趋势为北高南低,从北向南依次可分为适宜性高、适宜性较高、适宜性较低和适宜性低四个区域。相关性分析表明,影响胶州湾海域海底工程适宜性的因素从高到低依次为冲淤分布、沉积物类型、坡度、第四系沉积物厚度、水深、海流流速、断裂分布。本研究可为胶州湾工程环境和地质灾害预防提供参考,有助于海洋工程环境稳定和经济安全保障。     

连云港海底航道安全海洋环境综合评价

海底航道安全与海洋环境相关,随着海洋调查观测技术的进步,航道观测信息增多,有些信息往往难以定量,如何利用这些资料评估海底航道安全日益重要。本研究在综合分析连云港海底航道安全海洋环境主要影响因素的基础上,基于航道地形环境、航道地质环境、海洋动力环境、极端事件对航道安全的影响程度,建立了连云港海底航道安全海洋环境模糊综合评价模型,运用模糊综合评价法对航道安全海洋环境进行了定量评估,依据评价结果,连云港海底航道安全海洋环境定量评价为2.63,等级介于比较安全与一般危险之间,对航道海洋环境立体监测与安全评价体系建设具有实践意义。     

一种基于水深梯度原理的海底滑坡快速识别方法——以南海北部陆坡白云深水区为例

如何快速而准确的识别并提取海底滑坡的特征形态信息一直是海洋工程地质、特别是深水工程地质评价中所关注的问题之一。本文根据滑坡后形成的地形形态,基于水深梯度求值运算的原理,通过Matlab编程建立了一种快速识别海底滑坡的方法。以南海北部陆坡白云深水区为例进行海底滑坡的识别,并利用浅地层剖面做验证,结果显示这一方法是可行的,其最大的优点是滑坡识别速度快,对于规模小且数量多的滑坡识别效率较高。通过实测数据进一步的分析表明:（1）阈值的选取对识别结果有明显影响,阈值的选取需要结合其他物探资料（如浅地层剖面和声呐影像）综合判断来确定;（2）水深数据的空间分辨率会影响滑坡识别结果的准确度,合适的空间分辨率会提高识别结果的准确性。     

Prediction of wave-induced scour depth under submarine pipelines using machine learning approach

The scour around submarine pipelines may influence their stability; therefore scour prediction is a very important issue in submarine pipeline design. Several investigations have been conducted to develop a relationship between wave-induced scour depth under pipelines and the governing parameters. However, existing formulas do not always yield accurate results due to the complexity of the scour phenomenon. Recently, machine learning approaches such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used to increase the accuracy of the scour depth prediction. Nevertheless, they are not as transparent and easy to use as conventional formulas. In this study, the wave-induced scour was studied in both clear water and live bed conditions using the M5’ model tree as a novel soft computing method. The M5’ model is more transparent and can provide understandable formulas. To develop the models, several dimensionless parameter, such as gap to diameter ratio, Keulegan-Carpenter number and Shields number were used. The results show that the M5’ models increase the accuracy of the scour prediction and that the Shields number is very important in the clear water condition. Overall, the results illustrate that the developed formulas could serve as a valuable tool for the prediction of wave-induced scour depth under both live bed and clear water conditions.     

海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究

海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。     

Numerical simulation of tsunami waves generated by deformable submarine landslides

This paper presents a new submarine landslide model based on the non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE of Ma et al. (2012). The landslide is modeled as a water–sediment mixture. The dense plume is driven by baroclinic pressure forcing introduced by spatial density variations. The model is validated using laboratory measurements of turbidity currents and of water wave generation by a granular landslide. The model is then utilized to study the dependence of landslide motion and associated tsunami wave generation on parameters including sediment settling velocity, initial depth of the landslide and slide density. Model results show that the slide motion and water waves which it generates are both sensitive to these parameters. The relative tsunamigenic response to rigid and deformable landslides of equal initial geometry and density is also examined. It is found that the wave energy is mostly concentrated on a narrow band of the dominant slide direction for the waves generated by rigid landslides, while directional spreading is more significant for waves generated by deformable landslides. The deformable landslide has larger speed and acceleration at the early stage of landslide, resulting in larger surface waves. The numerical results indicate that the model is capable of reasonably simulating tsunami wave generation by submarine landslides.