气旋波动研究进程及研究方法

较全面地回顾与阐述了气旋波动研究进程及研究方法, 其中包括Bjerknes气旋模式, 以及Bjerknes and Solherg (1922) 提出的温带气旋生命循环和Petterssen (1956) 对气旋温度结构的描述, 并指出凝结潜热及地形对气旋发展的作用。还较详细地介绍了Petterssen (1956) 气旋发展理论、倾斜涡度发展理论、来自准地转 方程及位涡思考的气旋生成理论, 以及高空超长波系统发展与高空急流加强有利于低层爆发性气旋发展的学术观点, 为气旋的研究提供了历史研究背景、研究思想及方法。     

区域气候模拟研究

区域气候模拟是近几年发展起来的研究有限区域气候及气候变化的方法。由于区域气候模式较好地表示了地形和地表状况，同时包含较详细的陆地过程方案，因而能捕获许多大气环流模式难以分辨的区域尺度温度、降水分布和土壤水分变化特征。此外，区域气候模拟对于了解温室气体强迫可能导致的全球增暖在区域尺度上的特征及生态、环境效应也具有重要的意义。该文总结区域气候模式和模拟试验结果，并指出存在问题及今后研究的重点。     

沙丘移动的研究现状与未来研究思路

沙丘移动的研究经过数十年的发展与完善,基本上已自成体系。但是由于起步较晚,加之现象的复杂性,目前仍有很多重要的理论问题没能彻底解决,至少还未达成共识,成为学术界长期以来争论的焦点,从而影响了它的继续发展。本文在剖析沙丘移动研究现状的基础上,浅析其未来研究思路。重点对沙丘移动的判定指标进行了讨论,指出了Lancaste(r1988)提出的指标表达式不能够直接应用于我国,必须建立与我国国情相符合的指标体系。     

西风带研究动态

本文较为详细地介绍了影响我国气候的重要因子——西风带的一些国内外最新研究动态,这些研究动态和研究成果将对山西省的气候研究起到积极作用。     

风寒指数研究

本文描述了在伴有低温的强风风寒效应量化处理上应用最广泛的计算公式,风寒效应以风寒指数(因子)和风寒相当(视在)温度表示。本文还就公式的应用和英国London/Heathrow的风寒气候学进行了讨论。     

风能利用研究

黑龙江省松嫩平原及三江平原常年多风,年平均风速在3.5米/秒以上,蕴藏着丰富的风能资源。我省风能资源分布广,开发利用无污染,除一次性投资外,经常维修费用不高,是补充广大农村动力能源不足,发展农牧业生产的有效能源之一。如抗旱灌溉、温     

哈尔滨市热岛效应研究

1引言城市化进程的不断加快,对城市气候有着深远的影响,由其引起的城市热岛现象已经引起了广泛的关注。城市热岛效应是指当城市发展到一定规模,由于城市下垫面性质的改变、大气污染以及人工废热的排放等使城市温度明显高于郊区,形成的类似高温孤岛现象。     

MJO研究新进展

MJO与ENSO的关系、MJO的数值模拟(预报)以及MJO对天气气候的影响是近些年来国内外大气科学研究的重要前沿问题.本文将综合介绍国内有关MJO对天气气候的影响以及MJO的数值模拟(预报)方面的近期研究进展,因为过去已介绍过MJO与ENSO相互作用的研究结果.利用澳大利亚气象局的RMM-MJO指数研究MJO与西北太平洋台风活动的关系,结果表明大气MJO对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2∶1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2、3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5、6位相)时的比例也为2∶1.对大气环流的合成分析显示,在MJO的不同位相西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有极其明显不同.在第2、3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5、6位相则明显有促进对流发生发展,并为台风生成和发展创造了有利的大尺度环流动力场.对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30～60 d低频动能距平的合成分析表明,在多台风年最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,表明那里有强MJO的活动;而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上与季风槽位置对应区域是低频动能的负距平区,那里MJO偏弱.即赤道西北太平洋上MJO活动的强(弱)年对应西北太平洋的台风偏多(偏少).对应MJO的不同活动位相,无论冬季、春季或夏季,中国东部的降水都将出现特殊的异常形势.在春季,MJO的第2、3位相有利我国东部长江中下游地区多雨、华南地区少雨;MJO的第4、5位相有利我国华南地区多雨而长江中下游地区少雨;在MJO的其它位相,我国东部地区都为降水负异常.在冬季,对应MJO的第1～3位相(特别是第2、3位相)中国华南降水偏多;而对应MJO的第6～8位相(特别是第6、7位相)中国华南降水偏少.在夏季,MJO位于印度洋时,MJO可以通过低层西风急流的波导效应影响到中国东南部地区,造成该地区降水偏多;当MJO位于西太平洋地区时,可以造成经向环流的上升支向北偏移,导致西北太平洋副高的东撤、以及中国东南部地区水汽输送减弱,降水减少.资料分析还表明,在年际变化尺度上,热带中、东印度洋MJO指数的持续异常对云南夏季降水有明显的影响.大气环流和数值模拟都表明,MJO活动不同位相的强对流会在东亚/西北太平洋地区激发产生不同形势的遥响应(Rossby波列),导致在中国不同地区出现有利(或不利)降水的环流形势和条件,是MJO活动影响中国降水的主要机制.用数值模式对MJO进行数值模拟(预报)是尚未很好解决的困难问题,原因也没有完全搞清楚.我们的一系列数值模拟清楚表明,MJO的模拟(预报)效果对模式所用对流参数化方案有很强的依赖关系;模式能否很好描写(再现)热带大气非绝热加热廓线,是极其关键的问题,只有当加热廓线在对流层中低层有最大加热时,模式才能得到同实际观测大体一致的MJO及其活动特征.这些数值模拟结果与我们过去从理论研究得到的结论相吻合,彼此得到应证.     

气象知识产权研究

根据国际国内知识产权研究的现状,利用气象法规、条例,剖析了侵犯气象知识产权的主要侵权案例,重点探讨了天气预报的发布、产品的所有权、侵权行为的界定、侵权的法律责任、赔偿额的确定、气象部门如何利用条例法规和行业优势求发展等。并提出气象科技成果可申请专利、建立气象专利机构、尽快颁布《气象法》的建议。     

Review on the Data Application and Climate Variability in China for Various Timescales

 Temperature and precipitation are two main variables in climate changes. Spatial-temporal resolutions of temperature and precipitation, and recent studies on climate variability in China are summarized and discussed in this review. Recent 100-year datasets are used to reveal quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year oscillations in eastern China, as well as precipitation pattern shift in China. An oscillation with the timescale of 70-80 years is introduced in eastern China, derived from 500-year and 1000-year proxy and observation records. Finally, it is noted that more research achievements on climate change in China depend upon developing or reconstructing long-term series, studying in regularity and mechanism, as well as upon prediction and service etc.     

中国气候变化研究中不同时间尺度资料的应用与研究

温度和降水是反映气候变化的两个主要变量。因此,针对这两个变量序列的时空分辨率和已揭示的气候变率,以及需要进一步研究的方向作了初步的归纳与讨论。用近一个世纪的温度、降水资料揭示,中国东部地区存在着准20 a和准70 a的振荡以及中国降水气候型的漂移;用近五百年和近千年的代用序列并结合器测资料,揭示了我国东部地区存在着70～80 a的振荡。文章最后指出,我国气候变化研究在资料开发、规律与机理研究、预测与服务等方面有待进一步提高。     

Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation over 220 Years （1777-1997）

In this study, long-term (1777–1997) precipitation data for Seoul, Korea, wetness indices from eastern China, and modern observations are used to identify the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over the last 220 years. In the East Asian monsoon region, two long-term timescales of dry–wet transitions for the interdecadal variability and quasi-40-and quasi-60-year timescales are dominant in the 220-year precipitation data of Seoul, as well as in the wetness indices over China....     

Climate Change in China from 1880 to 1998 and its Impact on the Environmental Condition

The global mean surface air temperature (SAT) or the Northern Hemisphere mean SAT has increased since the late nineteenth century, but the mean precipitation around the world has not formed a definite tendency to increase. A lot of studies showed that different climate and environmental changes during the past 100 years over various regions in the world were experienced. The climate change in China over the past 100 years and its impact on China's environmental conditions needs to be investigated in more detail.Data sets of surface air temperature and atmospheric precipitation over China since 1880 up to the present are now available. In this paper, a drought index has been formulated corresponding to both the temperature and precipitation. Based on three series of temperature, precipitation, and drought index, interdecadal changes in all 7 regions of China and temperature differences among individual regions are analyzed. Some interesting facts are revealed using the wavelet transform method. In Northeast China, the aridification trend has become more serious since 1970s. Drought index in North China has also reached a high value during 1990s, which seems similar to that period 1920s–1940s. In NorthwestChina, the highest temperature appeared over the period 1930s–1940s. Along the Yangtze River valley in central eastern China and Southwest China, interdecadal high temperature occurred from 1920s to 1940s and in 1990s, but the drought climate mainly appeared from 1920s to early 1940s. In South China, temperature remained at a high value over the period 1910s–1940s,but the smaller-scale variation of drought index was remarkable from 1880 to 1998. Consequently, the quasi-20-year oscillation (smaller-scale variation) and the quasi-70-year oscillation (secular variation) obviously exist in temperature and precipitation series in different regions over China.Climate change and intensified human activity in China have induced certain environmental evolutions, such as the frequency change of dust-storm event in northern China, no-flow in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the runoff variation in Northwest China. On the other hand, frequent floods along the Yangtze River and high frequency of drought disaster have resulted in tremendous economic losses in the last decade in China. The primary reason for these happenings may be attributed to the evolution of the monsoon system in East Asian.     

Observed,reconstructed, and simulated decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China

Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736–2000, dry–wet index data for A.D. 500–2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth System Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China is studied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are: 22–24 and quasi-70 yr over the North China Plain; 32–36, 44–48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang–Huai area; and 32–36 and 44–48 yr in the Jiang–Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation reveals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North China Plain, Jiang–Huai area, and Jiang–Nan area, at scales of 20–35, 35–50, and 50–80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry (wet) conditions over the North China Plain, but wet (dry) conditions in the Jiang–Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data–model comparison suggests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastern China, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.     

近50年来湛江、韶关气候变化的小波分析

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江和韶关两地近50年平均气温和年降水量多时间尺度的演变特征,并对其气候突变进行了初步分析。结果表明,湛江气温变化包含了16年、4年和2年的振荡周期,其降水具有11年、4年的周期变化特征;而韶关的温度序列只具有5年、3年的高频振荡周期,降水变化则包含了11年、7年、4.5年的周期振荡。经气候突变的分析检验,湛江、韶关的气温及降水在不同时间尺度下具有不同的突变点。     

近50年新疆气温和降水量变化及其与NAO指数的交叉小波谱分析

利用1961—2008年的逐日降水和气温资料,采用线性趋势、小波功率谱和交叉小波谱等方法分析了新疆降水和气温的变化,以及与北大西洋涛动(NAO)变化之间的关系。结果表明,近50年新疆存在降水增多和气温上升的趋势,有暖湿化现象,这与西北地区由暖干趋于暖湿的结论相一致。同时,新疆平均年降水量与NAO存在准2年和准6年周期,夏季降水量与NAO存在准3年和准5年周期,冬季降水量与NAO存在准3年周期。新疆年均气温与NAO存在准3年周期,夏季气温与NAO存在准3年周期,冬季气温与NAO存在准3年和准8年周期。新疆全年、冬季和夏季的降水与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关大多集中在20世纪80年代;而气温与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关也大多集中在80年代。     

Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China

Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s. The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow) when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia.     

华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征

 华北地区的水资源短缺及相关的生态环境恶化是中国亟待解决的问题之一。降水是水资源最重要的因素,根据华北地区25个测站的长期年降水量资料和15个测站历史旱涝资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、功率谱和小波变换等方法进行的分析研究表明,华北地区的降水存在明显的准2 a振荡和准19 a周期变化特征,降水在1914和1964年发生了两次突变。历史旱涝等级时间序列有明显的4～5 a ENSO模的振荡、准10 a变化、准20 a变化和50～80 a世纪尺度特征。     

华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征

华北地区的水资源短缺及相关的生态环境恶化是中国亟待解决的问题之一。降水是水资源最重要的因素,根据华北地区25个测站的长期年降水量资料和15个测站历史旱涝资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、功率谱和小波变换等方法进行的分析研究表明,华北地区的降水存在明显的准2 a振荡和准19 a周期变化特征,降水在1914和1964年发生了两次突变。历史旱涝等级时间序列有明显的4～5 a ENSO模的振荡、准10 a变化、准20 a变化和50～80 a世纪尺度特征。