面向CIPAS3.0的气候数据环境设计与实现

本文针对气候监测预测分析系统（CIPAS3.0）数据环境的系统架构、总体设计，提出系统实现的若干关键技术并进行深入分析。CIPAS3.0作为国家气候中心面向气候监测、预测、诊断业务的核心业务系统，其数据支撑环境已全面融入气象大数据云平台“天擎”，针对不同存储格式的数据源，建立了以GBASE和PostgreSQL底层存储架构为基础的气候专题数据库，采用基于配置文件的可插拔数据加工处理框架，并提供了具有数算一体能力的数据访问接口。CIPAS数据环境设计采用OBS（Object Storage Service）对象存储进行产品的管理，同时针对数据产品完整性和分布式集群管理建立了全流程的监控系统，实现了数据从采集、入库、存储、加工处理、访问、监控等各环节的支撑作用。目前，CIPAS3.0数据环境已投入业务使用，其建设成果在国家级业务单位和试点省份的试用显示出其在支撑业务应用能力与发展前景方面具备较好的基础。     

基于CIMISS的气象数据处理时效监视系统设计与实

针对气象信息网络常规运行监控业务需要,结合气象信息共享系统（China Integrated Meteorological Information Service System,简称CIMISS）的运维实际,设计开发了基于CIMISS的气象数据处理时效监视系统,实现了对13类上行气象观测数据处理主要的节点时效、自动站疑误数据处理、数据访问服务性能的实时监控,并可为部分气象观测设备的运维保障提供参考指引。文中从系统结构与数据流程、主要业务功能、技术实现等方面对系统的实现方式等进行了介绍。     

综合气象观测运行监控系统

为了提高我国气象装备运行保障能力和观测数据质量,中国气象局气象探测中心从2006年起创建了综合气象观测运行监控系统,并依此逐步建立了监控业务。文中围绕气象装备保障业务关于台站、省级和国家级的三级用户需求,明确了以探测设备运行状态监视、技术保障信息管理、观测数据质量监视为主线的监控业务设计思想,并奠定了监控业务系统的技术框架,提出了＂两级布设、三级应用＂的分布结构,基于互联网和WebGIS技术,建立了一套实时气象观测网运行监控和分析系统,具备实时设备运行状态监控、装备保障信息管理、观测数据质量监视、基础信息管理、运行统计评估等功能。在此基础上,文中介绍了气象观测运行监控业务概况,通过监控系统实现了对全网设备运行状况的实时掌握,开展监控产品分析服务,定期评估装备运行效能和数据质量状况,使重要气象装备如天气雷达的可用性大幅提升,为提高气象装备运行效能发挥了重要作用。     

基于CIMISS的气象数据处理时效监视系统设计与实现

针对气象信息网络常规运行监控业务需要,结合气象信息共享系统(China Integrated Meteorological Information Service System,简称CIMISS)的运维实际,设计开发了基于CIMISS的气象数据处理时效监视系统,实现了对13类上行气象观测数据处理主要的节点时效、自动站疑误数据处理、数据访问服务性能的实时监控,并可为部分气象观测设备的运维保障提供参考指引。文中从系统结构与数据流程、主要业务功能、技术实现等方面对系统的实现方式等进行了介绍。     

福建气象综合业务平台融入“天擎”技术方案设计及实现

为加快推进福建省气象业务系统的集约化、云化转型，需要依托福建气象大数据云平台（“天擎·福建”）对业务系统进行融入改造。本文介绍了“天擎·福建”的概况、总体架构和功能，重点阐述了福建气象综合业务平台融入“天擎”的技术方案及实现方法，从平台融入“天擎”、数据源切换至“天擎”、算法纳入加工流水线、数据产品存入“天擎”、系统监控进“天镜”、前端页面改造等6个方面实现了应用融入并投入业务运行，融入后综合业务平台的数据汇聚、加工和服务全流程进一步优化和规范，系统运行效率和访问速度显著提高，为其他的业务系统融入天擎提供借鉴。     

宁夏市县气象综合业务监控系统设计和应用

为弥补宁夏气象部门市县级用户缺乏资料监控管理的短板,研发了以宁夏气象综合业务实时监控系统为主要数据源的市县综合业务监控系统。首先从逻辑结构设计和数据流程设计阐明了系统的整体设计流程;其次,详细阐述了ElasticSearch、Quartz定时任务调度框架、采集代理程序等关键技术在本系统中的应用;最后,通过系统的应用情况分析,表明该系运行正常,监控效果良好,能够为宁夏气象资料的传输提供一定保障作用。     

基于ZABBIX气象信息业务监控告警方法实现

本文在贵州省气象信息中心搭建的基于ZABBIX框架气象数据实时监控平台的基础上,主要对该架构监控流程、企业微信告警服务接入等功能的实现进行了介绍,利用ZABBIX的开源框架的企业微信告警接口分别对接本文开发程序模块和睿象云智能告警平台,实现对气象系统监控到的故障进行企业微信告警推送,使运维人员及时发现异常故障事件并对其进行快速的响应与恢复,从而为气象大数据云平台资源的自动化运维提供支撑和帮助,使气象数据故障维护的效率得到大幅提高,以此保证气象数据服务应用的及时性和可靠性。     

CTS2消息中间件监控与告警系统的设计与实现

国省气象通信系统(CTS2)通过部署消息中间件(RabbitMQ)实现文件类（FILE）和消息类（BUFR）气象数据的收发业务。本文在梳理文件类和消息类资料传输流程的基础上,基于开源监控平台（Zabbix）设计了一套消息中间件监控与告警系统,实现了消息队列的精细化监控与告警,并通过开源监控工具（Grafana）直观展示监控指标。该系统通过辅助值班人员监控消息队列从而快速定位气象数据传输故障,提高运维效率和气象数据传输保障能力。     

江西省下行气象资料实时监视平台设计与实现

下行气象资料是省级气象部门重要的数据源。在分析下行气象资料接收流程基础上,提出了江西省下行气象资料实时监视平台的构建思路。基于日志分析,采用MVC架构、SQL Server数据库和HTML、JavaScript等Web技术对平台进行设计与实现。平台实现了对江西省实时下载资料和CMACast系统广播资料等下行气象资料的实时监视。平台具有对下行气象资料年、月、日和任意时段的统计分析和对后台日志处理系统的异常报警。平台投入业务应用后,大大提高了江西省下行资料接收和监控效率。     

基于消息通知机制的国省数据共享系统的设计与实现

为解决卫星广播传输缺陷及省级用户获取临省实时观测资料和实况分析产品等迫切的业务需求，设计并实现了基于消息通知机制的国省数据共享系统。系统基于RabbitMQ的消息机制进行业务和数据资源的整合及集成，采用多层体系架构，满足基于地面宽带的数据快速有序下载和卫星广播数据补调等国省数据共享需求，支持大容量多种数据的高速传输，支持HTTP、FTP、SFTP等多种数据传输协议。系统已经上线提供服务，实现智能网格、多源融合实况分析等25种气象资料的国省数据共享，月平均共享数据量达6.3 TB，且建立全流程监视，有效保障数据共享的时效性。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on