基于支持向量机回归的岩体变形模量预测

岩体变形模量是表征岩体变形特性的最重要参数之一，其获取手段有室内试验与现场试验法、经 验 关 系 法、数 值 模 拟法、人工智能预测方法等。人工智能预测方法中常用的是神经网络方法，但神经网络易陷入局部极小值和过学习而导致低精度，支持向量机回归（ＳＶＲ）方法能有效地避免神经网络的以上缺陷，并在小样本、非线性预测方面具有较大优势，但目前 ＳＶＲ 应用于岩体变形模量预测的研究较少。以某水电站坝址区英安岩的试验数据为依托，采用灰色关联分析筛选出与变形模量最相关的纵波波速作为输入变量。在此基础上，以３个国内的水电站为例，分别建立相应的以实测纵波波速作为输入变量的粒子群算法优化－支持向量机回归（ＰＳＯ－ＳＶＲ）变形模量预测模型，同时，通过与 ＢＰ神经网络（ＢＰ－ＮＮ）、ＲＢＦ神经网络（ＲＢＦ－ＮＮ）２种预测方法进行对比，对比分析表明ＳＶＲ模型具有更高的预测精度，预测效果较好，说明 ＰＳＯ－ＳＶＲ方法更适用于岩体变形模量预测。      

基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

GM(1,1)模型的遗传算法优化及效果检验

对平稳的数据和非平稳数据两种数据序列建立的GM（1，1）模型，分别用加速遗传算法（AGA）和最小二乘法（LSM）对模型参数求解。结果表明：对平稳变化数据序列，两种方法建立的预测模型的拟合优度和预测精度无显著差异；对变化幅度较大的非平稳数据序列，基于AGA的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度高于基于LSM的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度。     

大亚湾网箱养殖区生物—化学特性与营养状况的周日变化

根据1998年11月对大亚湾大棚澳网箱养殖区进行的定点24h连续水质监测资料，分析并探讨了该养殖区海水生物－化学各要素的垂直分布和周日变化规律，并用单项指标评价法和改进的营养状态质量指数（NQI）法，参照营养指数（E）对该网箱养殖区涨水的营养状况进行了评价和研究，结果表明，各项要求的平均值大最都表层＞中层＞底层；周日变化主要受潮汐运动和海水中生物的节律性生理活动的综合影响；表层海水的富营养化率明显高于中层海水，其各单项指标处于中度－富营养状态，而中层和底层海水则分别处于贫－中度和贫－富营养状态；PO4－P相对贫乏，为养殖区富营养化的最关键限制因素。     

香蕉叶片组织细胞结构特性与耐寒性的关系

对广东目前推广的４个香蕉良种以及粉蕉和大蕉进行切片显微观察，并结合低温处理的电导率测定，结果表明，香蕉叶片组织细胞结构紧密度（ＣＴＲ值）与品种的耐寒性密切相关，且具有相对的稳定性，可作为香蕉耐寒性的鉴定指标，供试品种耐寒力强弱依次为粉蕉、大蕉、威廉斯（８８１８）、“巴西”、“９３－１”、广东二号（６３－１）。     

华北地区近期地壳水平运动的非震负位错反演

利用一种经初步改进了的非震负位错模型和华北地区1991－2000年的GPS观测资料，反演华北地区的地壳水平运动，以获取构造块体和边界断裂活动状况以及应力应变的积累部位及强度。其结果显示：（1）华北地区整体性向东偏南运动，冀鲁北部各块体正东向速率相对较大（11．4－12mm/a）；（2）阴山－燕山与河套断陷－鄂尔多斯－晋冀鲁间近EW－NWW向边界两侧左旋相对运动明显，导致1．0－2．8mm/a的边界锁定，且东段大于西段，以压性为主；（3）太行断块东西两界的北东向断裂带呈0－1．9mm/a的拉张锁定，左旋为主，其中晋获断裂锁定量最高；（4）唐山－沧东断裂北段、益都北西段及郯庐断裂中南段呈0．9－3．1mm/a右旋拉张锁定，其中益都北西段锁定量最高；（5）14条断裂中有12条不同程度地阻碍块体相对运动，近10年来有相当于Ms4.8-6.1的能量积累，其中燕山与冀鲁交界西段最高，阴山与鄂尔多斯东部交界次之，均表现为压性；晋获、郯庐断裂较弱（张性）；（6）从块体及断层活动方向来看，燕山、冀鲁交界西段与唐山－沧东断裂交汇区，阴山、鄂尔多斯东部交界与汾渭断裂交汇区，积聚一定程度应力应变的可能性相对更大。     

基于局部均值分解和相关向量机的变形预测

基于改进局部均值分解（LMD）及加权核函数相关向量机（RVM）算法，构建多尺度变形预测新方法。利用LMD将变形数据分解成多个具有物理意义的变形分量，并基于遗传算法优化的RVM对每个变形分量分别进行预测。将各变形分量预测结果进行叠加，最终建立多尺度变形预测方法，并应用于大坝变形预测。实验结果表明，改进LMD-RVM方法的多个精度指标均优于BP神经网络方法、RVM方法和改进EMD-RVM方法，证实了新方法的有效性及可靠性。
     

几种抗菌药物对马氏珠母贝D型幼虫的毒性试验

试验了几种抗菌药物对马氏珠母贝幼虫的毒性，结果表明，几种抗菌药物对马氏珠母贝Ｄ型幼虫９６ｈ半数耐受浓度（９６ＴＬＭ＝９６ＬＣ５０）及安全浓度分别为：氯霉素４５．４×１０－６、４．５×１０－６；红霉素５３．０×１０－６、５．３×１０－６；呋喃西林６４．１×１０－６，６．４×１０－６土霉素、百炎净、硫酸链霉素、青霉素Ｇ钠均大于１００×１０－６及１０×１０－６。但若以幼虫活力、摄食率、日生长率的变化作为观察指标，则这些药物的９６ＴＬＭ及安全浓度分别落在下述区间内：土霉素（３８～６７）×１０－６、（３．８～６．７）×１０－６；百炎净（５２～６７）×１０－６、（５．２～６．７）×１０－６；硫酸链霉素（２５～３８）×１０－６、（２．５～３．８）×１０－６；青霉素Ｇ钠仍大于１００×１０－６及１０×１０－６。下列药物在一定浓度下对幼虫的生长有明显的促进作用：青霉素Ｇ钠，百炎净（１３～３８）×１０－６；呋喃西林１３×１０－６。     

川西坳陷蓬莱镇组构造——充填层序特征

川西坳陷上株罗统蓬莱镇组（莲花口组）为前陆盆地陆相红层碎屑岩建筑。笔应用成因地层学原理和层序地层学研究方法，对川西地区蓬莱镇组开展露头层序，测井层序地震层序的综合研究，划分山区域上可供对比的5个构造－充填层序（S1－S5），并对每个层邓的层序界面、沉积体系和岩相古地理分布与演化特征进行了讨论，为查明蓬莱镇组沉积相的时空配置关系，正确建立区域地层格架、开展有利储集相带的预测遵基础。     

几种抗菌药物对马氏珠母贝壳顶幼虫的毒性试验

几种抗菌药物对壳顶幼虫的毒性试验结果表明：（１）以９６ｈ平均日生长率作为药物对幼虫毒性的观察指标，求出日生长率仅为对照组一半时的药物浓度（９６ＴＬＭ）及安全浓度（ＳＤ）如下：氯霉素６９×１０－６、６．９×１０－６；呋喃西林７２×１０－６、７．２×１０－６；百炎净７７×１０－６、７．７×１０－６；红霉素９７×１０－６、９．７×１０－６；硫酸链霉素４８×１０－６、４．８×１０－６；青霉素钠大于１００×１０－６、１０×１０－６。（２）１３×１０－６的呋喃西林、１３×１０－６的红霉素、１３×１０－６的青霉素钠对幼虫生长均有促进作用。（３）各试验组随药物浓度递增，幼虫活动逐渐被抑制；摄食率及眼点率逐渐下降。高浓度红霉素对摄食的抑制作用最强。     

A numerical study on the density driven circulation in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

The circulation of Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(YSCWM) in the Southern Yellow Sea is investigated using a diagnostic 2D MITgcm model. The resolution of the computational grid is 900 m in the horizontal and 2 m in the vertical where an initial temperature distribution corresponding to a typical measured Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass was applied. The existence of YSCWM that causes fluid density difference, is shown to produce counter-rotating cyclonic horizontal eddies in the surface layer: the inner one is anti-cyclonic(clockwise) and relatively weaker(8–10 cm s-1) while the outer one is cyclonic(anti-clockwise) and much stronger(15–20 cm s-1). This result is consistent with the surface pattern observed by Pang et al.(2004), who has shown that a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy(clockwise) exists in the upper layer of central southern Yellow Sea, and a basin-scale cyclonic(anticlockwise) gyre lies outside of the anti-cyclonic eddy, based on the trajectories and drifting velocities of 23 drifters. Below the thermocline, there is an anti-cyclonic(clockwise) circulation. This complex current eddy system is considered to be capable of trapping suspended sediments and depositing them near the front between YSCWM and the coastal waters off the Subei coast, providing an explanation on the sediment depth and size distribution of mud patches in the Southern Yellow Sea. Moreover, sensitive test scenarios indicate that variations of bottom friction do not substantially change the main features of the circulation structure, but will reduce the bottom current velocity, increase the surface current velocity and weaken the upwelling around the frontal area.     

PROCESSING AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA FROM A SONOBUOY REFRACTION SEISMIC SECTION IN THE EAST CHINA SEA SHELF MARGINALRIDGE

INTRODUCTIONThemannerefraCtionseisAncmehodisirnP0Ftantf0rstudyofmarinecrustandregionalgeo1ogicalteCtonics.Mufauchi(1968),Leyden(l973),Ludwig(l973),JinXianglongetal.(l986)reportedsonobu0yreffoCtionseisAncrmurernentSintheEesandtheOkinawaTroughregion,studiedthetaltatarysequenceandthickness0fthebasernent,andcomPataltheveoCityugeoftheuppercrustallayers.beetal.(l98O)werethefustto0btainaMohodepthofl5kminthecentralaxisoftheOkinawaTroughbyusingtwo-shipreffoCtionseisAncrneh0ds.Usingl8ocanb…     

Wet Canopy Evaporation Rate of Three Stands in Western Sichuan, China

The wet canopy evaporation rate (Er) was calculated by Penman-Monteith combination model based on three assumptions and with meteorological variables 2 m above the canopy in three stands, dominated by spruce (SF), fir (FF) and birch (BF) trees, respectively, in the subalpine forests in western Sichuan, China over a growing season. The total amount of the E was 44.5 mm for SF, 88.5 mm for FF and 57.8 mm for BF, accounting for 9.2%, 16.6% and 10.2% of the gross rainfall, respectively, in the measuring period. There was the highest average monthly Er and percentage of E to gross rainfall for FF compared with SF and BF.Mean Er was 0.097 mm h^-1 (ranging from 0.028 to0.487 mm h^-1), 0.242 mm h^-1 (from 0.068 to 0.711 mm h^-1) and 0.149 mm h^-1 (from 0.060 to 0.576 mm h^-1) for SF, FF and BF, respectively. The highest average monthly Er occurred in June was 0.120 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.317 mm h^-1for FF and 0.169 mm h^-1 for BF, and the lowest value in October was 0.083 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.187 mm h^-1 for FF and 0.101 mm h^-1 for BF, respectively. The averages of Er from 8:00 to16:00 were significantly higher than those from 0:00 to 8:00 and from 16:00 to 0:00 for the three stands. The marked daily and monthly differences of Er were contributable to the variations of solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity above the canopy.     

A THEORETICAL SOLUTION FOR THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA

Application of the thermocline equations in the thermocline areas and the boundary layer and the asymptotic matching techniques in each boundary in order to satisfy the surface and bottom conditions yielded a theoretical 2- D solution of the vertical thermohaline circulation of the Southern Yellow Sea in summer when the quasi-statically varying seasonal thermocline (density layer) is the background density structure , the deviations from which cause the secondary vertical circulation . The results show that the thermocline can be considered as an internal boundary or a barrier to the vertical heat advection so that in the central areas of the Southern Yellow Sea or the center of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(YCWM)> the downwelling in the upper layer and upwelling in the lower or bottom layer form a double cell vertical circulation . The solution is similar to Hu's conceptual model ( 1986) in the central areas of the YCWM and is consistent with observed temperature . salinity and dissolved oxygen distri     

不同海潮模型对GNSS站负荷位移计算的影响

基于古登堡平均地球模型和积分格林函数方法,利用中国近海海潮模型Chinasea 2010、Naoregional 1999和全球海潮模型EOT11a,计算中国沿海GNSS连续运行站上的海潮位移负荷影响,并对其均方根RMS及和方根RSS进行综合分析。结果表明,2种近海模型分潮波位移负荷差异水平分量大部分为亚mm级,垂直分量普遍为mm级,最大达5.8 mm;Chinasea 2010模型比Naoregional 1999模型在中国海域覆盖面积大,2种模型在黄海和东海海域差异较大,在渤海和南海海域差异较小;模型差异与测站位置及潮波频率均有关系,应比较观测资料的负荷改正效果,择优采用适宜本区域的模型。     

Application of an ice-ocean coupled model to Bohai Sea ice simulation

The HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model),a high-resolution regional ice-ocean coupled model,was applied to investigate the seasonal evolution of Bohai Sea ice for winter 2015/2016.HAM SOM was initialized with monthly climatological temperature and salinity data from WOA13 and driven by hourly meteorological data obtained from the NCEP above the sea surface and tides at the open boundary.The ice model used here is a modified Hibler-type dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model based upon viscous-plastic rheology.The ice extent,concentration,area,thickness,length of ice season as well as the distance between the top of Liaodong Bay(North China) and the outer ice edge line were simulated and compared with the observed data.Three types of modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of wind,tide,and both wind and tide on Bohai Sea ice.The re sults show that wind,as both a dynamic and a thermodynamic factor,has a significant impact on the ice thickness,ice area,and ice-freezing and ice breakup dates as well as the ice velocity,while tides are a dynamic factor that influences only the ice velocity.During the severe ice period,the wind speed intensity increased by 25%,the average ice thickness thickened by approximately 4.0 cm in Liaodong B ay,approximately 2.1 cm in Bohai B ay and approximately2.5 cm in Laizhou B ay,and the total ice coverage area and total ice actual area increased by about 2×10~4 km~2 and 1.4×10~4 km2,respectively.While the tidal amplitude intensity increased by 25%,the average ice velocity increased by approximately 0.1 m/s.     

Interannual Variability and Scenarios Projection of Sea Ice in Bohai Sea Part I: Variation Characteristics and Interannual Hindcast

The Bohai Sea is one of the southernmost areas for sea ice formation in the northern hemisphere.Sea ice disasters in this body of water severely affect marine activities and the safety of coastal residents.In this study,we analyze the variation characteristics of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and establish an annual regression model based on predictable mode analysis method.The results show the following:1)From 1970 to 2018,the average ice grade is(2.6±0.8),with a maximum of 4.5 and a minimum of 1.0.Liaodong Bay(LDB)has the heaviest ice conditions in the Bohai Sea,followed by Bohai Bay(BHB)and Laizhou Bay(LZB).Interannual variation is obvious in all three bays,but the linear decreasing trend is significant only in BHB.2)Three modes are obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis,namely,single polarity mode with the same sign of anomaly in all of the three bays and strong interannual variability(82.0%),the north–south dipole mode with BHB and LZB showing an opposite sign of anomalies to that in LDB and strong decadal variations(14.5%),and a linear trend mode(3.5%).Critical factors are analyzed and regression equations are established for all the principal components,and then an annual hindcast model is established by synthesizing the results of the three modes.This model provides an annual spatial prediction of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea for the first time,and meets the demand of operational sea ice forecasting.     

MODEL OF UPPER OCEANIC CIRCULATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING NORTHEAST MONSOON

MODUrnONTheS0uthChinaSea(SCS)isabophalrnarginalbasinwhereEastAsiamonsoonsprevail.0bviousadjustInentSoftheupperocanoccurduetOthealtematingsurnxneandwintermonsoons.ThemostboohantaspchoflargeanlecurmtSintheSesaretheupperoonnicresponsetothemonsoons(Dale,l956).MostpreviousmrehesfocusedondiagnostiesandmodelingofsuffocecurmtS.Wwti(l96l)plotalsurfacentsbasedonshipdriflsintheNAGAReportNo.2anddescritaltheperiodicallysdri-annualreversingofwindsandrtinthisarea.Xuetal.(l982)calculatalthedy-naAn…     

The substance composition of sterols in the sediments from the Chukchi Sea, the Bering Sea and global climatic significance

The compounds of sterols such as C27 ,C2s ,C29 and C30 are recorded from C-8 core of the Chukchi Sea. The double bond position is located at 5-, 5,22 as well as 22-,24-. The compound of sterols such as C27 ,C28 ,C29 are recorded from B2-9 core of the Bering Sea. The double bond position is located at 5-, 5, 22 as well as 22. The composition characteristics of sterols indicate that the substance is mainly contributed by the terrigenous origin and marine silicate organisms. The results are also suggest that the record of abnormal sterols from the surface sediments （2 -0 era）in the Chukchi Sea and the Bering Sea represent the period from 1980s to the late 1990s. The strong signal of the Arctic warming is preserved in the sediments, which indicates the eco - environmental change responding to climatic effect of circumjacent.