珠江三角洲局地强风暴发生的环境条件

中纬度地区局地强风暴发生的环境条件已有过许多研究［１－６］，陶诗言［７］归纳出三个必要条件：（１）对流层中下层为明显位势不稳定，（２）有强的垂直风切变，（３）中层十分干燥。同类的热带地区研究工作比较少见。本文根据１９７６－１９８３年３－８月出现在珠江三角洲的局地强风暴和广州站逐日０８时探空资料，分析了各月局地强风暴发生的有利和不利条件。发现本地区局地强风暴发生的环境条件与中纬地区相比，在垂直风切变、中层湿度和稳定度等方面是不同的。     

台风影响期间珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件

采用１９７６－１９８３年６－８月珠江三角洲地区受台风影响期间区内各站逐日的强风暴和降水资料以及广泛站的探空资料，用相关对比度分析方法，对台风环流中的珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件进行统计诊断，得出台风影响珠江三角洲时这两种强天气发生的有利的环境条件，并发现二者在气压、风速、层结稳定度和中下层位势不稳定等方面显著不同。     

早春华南局地强风暴与低层水汽通道

本文分析了1980年3月4—6日发生在华南的一系列局地强风暴,发现对流层低层水汽通道的活动和潜在对流不稳定I指数的变化与局地强风暴有很密切的关系。用常规资料分析水汽通道与I指数的变化对灾害性局地强风暴有一定预报意义,通常局地强风暴发生在沿水汽通道方向水汽通量最大值的前方。      

2001—08—07河南省局地强风暴天气过程分析

2001年8月7日冷锋过境前河南中部出现了局地雷雨大风，冰雹，龙卷及短时强降水天气过程。分析结果表明：地面高温高湿，为强风暴的发生提供了热力条件；高层冷平流，低层暖平流提供了层结条件；地面流场上风向辐合提供了动力条件。强风暴出现在高能区，并在高能区传播和移动。雷达回波的反射率因子特征为强度强，高度高，移速快；强回波位于移动方向前方，弱回波位于移动方向后方。平均径向速度场特征为辐合系统和气旋性辐合系统，垂直剖面图上，低层有明显的辐合界面。     

潮州两次西风带龙卷天气过程对比分析

利用常规观测和汕头SA型多普勒天气雷达等资料，对比分析广东省潮州市2012年5月13日和2014年5月22日两次西风带系统龙卷过程(简称“5.13”龙卷和“5.22”龙卷)。结果表明：两次龙卷过程都发生在高空槽东移和低层切变线南压、并伴有低空急流的相似天气形势下；但“5.22”龙卷存在有利于强对流风暴发生并增强的前倾槽结构和强低空西南急流。两次龙卷均发生在极低的抬升凝结高度和中等偏弱的深层垂直风切变环境条件下；“上干、下湿”的不稳定层结和整层都具有较大湿度的不稳定层结配置都可能产生龙卷。雷达观测上，“5.13”龙卷发生在飑线的弓形回波前缘，无钩状回波特征和中气旋，属于非超级单体龙卷；而“5.22”龙卷发生在超级单体风暴前部的钩状回波顶端，伴有强中气旋，属于超级单体龙卷。     

s－r螺旋度在皖西南强风暴预报中的应用

应用常规探空资料，对皖西南地区强风暴天气的ｓ－ｒ螺旋度进行了计算分析。结果表明。ｓ－ｒ螺旋度作为一个新的诊断量，对皖西南非孤立龙卷、大范围冰雹及距测站５０ｋｍ内的局地龙卷有较好的预报能力。     

s-r螺旋度在皖西南强风暴预报中的应用

应用常规探空资料，对皖西南地区强风暴天气的ｓ－ｒ螺旋度进行了计算分析。结果表明：ｓ－ｒ螺旋度作为一个新的诊断量，对皖西南非孤立龙卷、大范围冰雹及距测站５０ｋｍ内的局地龙卷有较好的预报能力。     

2001-08-07河南省局地强风暴天气过程分析

2001年8月7日冷锋过境前河南中部出现了局地雷雨大风、冰雹、龙卷及短时强降水天气过程.分析结果表明地面高温高湿,为强风暴的发生提供了热力条件;高层冷平流、低层暖平流提供了层结条件;地面流场上风向辐合提供了动力条件.强风暴出现在高能区,并在高能区传播和移动.雷达回波的反射率因子特征为强度强、高度高、移速快;强回波位于移动方向前方,弱回波位于移动方向后方.平均径向速度场特征为辐合系统和气旋性辐合系统,垂直剖面图上,低层有明显的辐合界面.     

黄土高原一次疑似龙卷天气的中尺度分析

利用高空、地面常规观测资料、分钟级加密自动气象站资料和榆林多普勒雷达资料,对 2013 年8月4日傍晚发生在榆林市的一次超级强对流风暴天气进行中尺度分析。结果表明：（1）此次过程疑似一次超级单体龙卷天气过程;（2）从环流背景来看,榆林市上空中层强干冷平流配合低层切变线、西南急流,高层干冷、低层暖湿特征明显;从环境条件来看,强风暴发生前和发生期间能量、抬升凝结高度、风切变满足龙卷发生所需的热力不稳定、垂直风切变条件;（3）雷达钩状回波结构清晰,并伴有强中气旋,大于60 dBZ的回波和正负速度对已接地,呈现龙卷发生时的回波特征;（4）强风暴发生前后,由北向南经过榆林地区有多个龙卷涡旋TVS产品被识别;（5）气象要素场变化剧烈,地面气压明显降低,风速出现极值增强,风向发生突变,与龙卷发生期间风场观测特征基本一致,表明该区域出现龙卷的可能性较大。     

五常龙卷过程的新一代天气雷达和闪电定位资料分析

本文利用新一代天气雷达和闪电定位资料分析了2008年5月23日发生在黑龙江省五常市境内的一次龙卷过程。此次龙卷起源于对流层上中下层相互作用,形成上千冷、下暖湿,并有暖湿切变配合的不稳定层结,龙卷发生在高空槽和地面冷锋前的不稳定暖湿气团中。雷达回波分析发现,本次龙卷起源于中-γ尺度气旋中,在雷达强度场上呈现“V”字型结构。闪电定位资料分析表明,龙卷发生前闪电极性是以负地闪为主,正地闪极少,正地闪主要发生在雷暴发展后期。     

海面与海岸陆面风速廓线特征

利用位于江苏海岸陆地的两座测风塔以及福建海面的一座测风塔气象要素资料,分析了这两种下垫面风速、湍流等要素的日变化规律及廓线特征,探讨了这两种不同下垫面特征导致的风力特征差异。结果表明:海岸陆面日最大风速出现时间较内陆滞后,最小风速出现时间与内陆相差不大,风速日变化位相随高度滞后,日振幅随高度减小,冬季70 m高度风速日变化特征与10 m高度风速日变化特征相反,夜间大于白天,说明冬季的过渡层转换高度低于夏季;海面风速的日变化位相、日振幅等特征随高度变化很小。两种下垫面的风廓线用对数律、指数律拟合的效果相当,海岸陆面的风廓线指数呈现的规律为离岸风组大于向岸风组,冬季大于夏季;海面风廓线指数呈现的规律则是向岸风组大于离岸风组,夏季大于冬季。     

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.     

气象因子与下垫面性质对锡林郭勒盟沙尘暴影响探析

锡林郭勒盟沙尘暴分布与气象因子和下垫面性质有关,沙尘暴西多东少的分布特征,与大风西多东少、降水西北少东南多、温度西南高东北低的分布特征基本相似;大风是沙尘暴的主要动力因子,温度是产生沙尘暴的热力因素,降水和下垫面性质决定了沙尘暴产生的环境条件。沙尘暴日数随着大风日数与温度增加(升高)而增多;随降水增加而减少;下垫面要素中的地形、地貌为沙尘暴的发生提供沙源、起沙条件;土壤成分自西北向东南为棕钙土带、栗钙土带、黑钙土带、灰色森林土带,植被覆盖度依次增加,沙尘暴分布也依次减少。     

Policy innovation in a changing climate: Sources,patterns and effects

States have been widely criticized for failing to advance the international climate regime. Many observers now believe that a “new” climate governance is emerging through transnational and/or local forms of action that will eventually plug the resulting governance gaps. Yet states, which remain oddly absent from most discussions of the “new” governance, will remain key players as governance becomes more polycentric. This paper introduces a special issue that explores the ability of states to rise to these interconnected challenges through the analytical prism of policy innovation. It reveals that policy innovation is much more multi-dimensional than is often thought; it encompasses three vital activities: invention (centering on the ‘source’ of new policy elements), diffusion (that produces different ‘patterns’ of policy adoption), and the evaluation of the ‘effects’ that such innovations create in reality. The papers, which range from qualitative case studies to large ‘n’ quantitative studies, offer new insights into the varied roles that states play in relation to all three.They show, for instance that: the policy activity of states has risen dramatically in the past decade; that state innovation is affected to similar degrees by internal and external factors; and that policies that offer flexibility to target groups on how to meet policy goals are most effective but that voluntary reporting requirements are ineffective. This paper draws upon these and many other insights to offer a much more nuanced reflection on the future of climate governance; one that deservedly puts states at the front and center of analysis.     

Delegating, not returning, to the biosphere: How to use the multi-scalar and ecological properties of cities

Our aim is to theorize the shifting relationship between cities and the biosphere in ways that can incorporate vanguard scientific, technical and social innovations. We specify that the city (a) generates third natures - specific new environments - such as heat islands, that today are destructive of the biosphere, and (b) that the city has systemic properties that correspond to those of the biosphere, but today are mostly flattened out of action through the ruptures that dominate today's articulation between cities and biosphere. That is to say, our specific project agrees with the problematizing of the category “nature,” which pertains to our presence in the biosphere. But we do not take Harvey's more absolute statement that the city itself is nature nor do we confine our analysis only to Latourian natures-cultures. Our analysis is less centered in the work of correcting a false binary, as is the case with both Latour and Harvey, notwithstanding their different objects of study. We focus on the complex in-between space that is the site of both the transactions between city and biosphere, as well as the site of the ruptures that characterize these transactions.     

Catalyzing sustainability pathways: Navigating urban nature based solutions in Europe

The notion that pathways can be identified and followed towards more sustainable futures has become an increasingly prevalent idea across the science and policy of global environmental change. Focusing on the debate within literatures on socio-technical systems, we find that pathways are often tied to the concept of scaling up such that they are dependent on trajectories which extend from the geographically small to large scale or from singular incidences to widespread adoption. Building on relational approaches to scaling, in this paper we argue that sustainability pathways need to be conceived as emerging from the catalytic interaction of multiple and overlapping efforts to change the status quo. We suggest that pathways can be conceptualized as being composed of ‘stepping stones’: bundles of related interventions that seize or create opportunities to build momentum for the implementation of innovations, the form of which is not predetermined. Drawing on 243 interviews, participant observation, and document analysis examining urban nature-based solutions across six European countries and the EU, we identify 20 stepping stones that can be used to accelerate the uptake of urban NBS in European cities. In the case of urban NBS in Europe, we find that the capacity of stepping stones to generate catalytic change strongly depends on how they interact with one another. We illustrate that pathways are not given but rather assembled through key interventions that collectively generate the capacities and momentum needed to overcome inertia and generate new socio-material orders in which such interventions are normalized as mainstream responses to sustainability challenges.     

Is the Uncertainty about Climate Change too Large for Expected Cost-Benefit Analysis?

Cost-benefit analysis is only applicable if the variances of both costs and benefits are finite. In the case of climate change, the variances of the net present marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction need to be finite. Finiteness is hard, if not impossible to prove. The opposite is easier to establish as one only needs to show that there is one, not impossible representation of the climate change with infinite variance. The paper shows that all relevant current variables of theFUND model have finite variances. However, there is a small chance that climate change reverses economic growth in some regions. In that case, the discount rate becomes negative and the net present marginal benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction becomes very large. So large, that its variance is unbounded. One could interpret this as an indication that cost-benefit analysis is invalid. Alternatively, one could argue that the infinity is present in both the base case and the policy scenario, and therefore irrelevant; in that interpretation, cost-benefit analysis is a valid tool.     

The ideas of secondary school children concerning ozone layer damage

The understanding of pupils between the ages of 11 and 16 about the ozone layer — what it is, what will damage it and what will be the likely result of such damage — has been studied. Following the use of a preliminary open-form questionnaire, the ideas of a large cohort of children have been probed by closed-form questionnaire and by interviews with a subset of this group. The authors explain that most pupils seem aware that the ozone layer is a layer of gas around Earth, but less sure what that gas is. They also know that it protects Earth from ultra-violet rays from the sun, and that further depletion will allow more ultra-violet to Earth and cause more skin cancer. Most also know that one cause of depletion is the use of CFCs, but many confuse the depletion of the ozone layer with the greenhouse effect and other forms of atmospheric pollution. The authors provide evidence to suggest that such confusion of ideas is strongly held and that, even with this relatively new and abstract phenomenon, ideas are held in a consistent and similar framework by most pupils.     

降水强迫对戈壁局地气候系统水、热输送的影响

用黑河实验中化音站（戈壁）加强期的湍流脉动场资料对降水强迫影响戈壁局地气候系统水、热输送的过程进行了系统分析。结果表明：降水强迫会使戈壁局地气候系统出现暂时的不平衡状态，要重新回到平衡状态需要通过物质和能量的重新调配来实现。该过程可划分为４个阶段，各个阶段间的感热、潜热和水汽通量均有较大差异。从近地层水、热输送特征看，受降水强迫后非平衡状态的张弛时段大约为４ｄ。在整个张弛期间，地表接收到的降水约有２／３通过地表蒸发后输送到大气，其余部分可能被渗入地下     

Characteristics and Diagnosis of the Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China During 1981-2018

This paper applies statistical and synthetic analysis methods to study the characteristics of the three types of tropical cyclone (TC) that landed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 1981 to 2018 and the reasons for the differences of TC-induced wind and precipitation. The results show that there are interdecadal changes in the frequency and intensity of the landfalling TCs in the GBA, with decreased frequency but increased intensity in the 2010s. The TCs that landed in the west of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) have the most frequency and the strongest intensity during landing, which bring the strongest winds; the TCs that landed in the PRE have the least frequency and the shortest duration after landing, which cause the strongest precipitation; the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE have the relatively longest duration on the land. This study shows that near the center of the TCs that landed in the PRE, there is a weak anomalous cyclonic shear compared with the ones that landed in the west of the PRE. Compared with the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE, it is a confluence area of anomalous north wind and anomalous southwest wind, with better water vapor convergence and dynamic rising conditions, which is conducive to the formation of heavy precipitation. Compared with the TCs that landed in the PRE and in its east, there is a closed positive anomalous center of pressure gradient in the northwest center of the TCs that landed in its west, resulting in higher wind speeds in the west of the PRE. The characteristics of the three types of TCs in the GBA are highly related to TC-induced damage. In the future, the GBA needs to focus on preventing TCs landing in its west. Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Huizhou are key cities to guard against TCs. The results of this study provide foundations for effective management and reduction of TC disaster risks in the future construction of the GBA.